Trade Discussion and Analysis

[wasp 10]

As to answer your question "why"... because we have different styles and I feel much more comfortable after having nailed the entry and managing the trade. If I were too look for more entries, I'd need to take more trades, which means more stress, more potential for error, more potential for stops hit. So in the end => more risk, financially and emotionally... but that's me! :\

 

wuss! :rofl:

[firewalker 10]

wuss! :rofl:

 

How much is your total risk, meaning the stop size of all your trades together?

If you compare that to the profits you gained, then I think there's a possibility that I gained more relative to what I risked. Yeah I might not win the highest net profit contest... and I'm sure that's no 1 on the wish list of most traders!

 

After having had a second look at your chart, I must admit you really squeezed every single point out of that, didn't you? :applaud:

[wasp 10]

How much is your total risk, meaning the stop size of all your trades together?

If you compare that to the profits you gained, then I think there's a possibility that I gained more relative to what I risked. Yeah I might not win the highest net profit contest... and I'm sure that's no 1 on the wish list of most traders!

 

I risk 4% of my entire capital on any one trade and only have one trade at a time. I am all in from the word go till my exit.

 

After having had a second look at your chart, I must admit you really squeezed every single point out of that, didn't you? :applaud:

Damn straight! Why not?!!

[wasp 10]

That said, I am looking to improve and reduce my risk exposure plan atm (without trying to reduce returns)...

 

Thing is I cannot think of anything better than less % or tighter stops...:\

[firewalker 10]

I risk 4% of my entire capital on any one trade and only have one trade at a time. I am all in from the word go till my exit.

 

Didn't mean it like that actually...

 

Suppose you risk (on average) 50 pips per trade and you took 10 trades to make 500 pips, then you risked as much as you gained. On the other hand suppose you took 5 trades on which you risked each 20 pips, but gained 250 pips net.

 

Personally I'd favour trading a system like the second one.

 

But yours is best of both worlds by the looks of it...

Btw, I see three red crosses on your chart, but no negative pips. Were all those breakeven trades??

[firewalker 10]

That said, I am looking to improve and reduce my risk exposure plan atm (without trying to reduce returns)...

 

Thing is I cannot think of anything better than less % or tighter stops...:\

 

That's because there isn't anything else to do :o

I'm off, catch ya later!

[wasp 10]

Didn't mean it like that actually...

 

Suppose you risk (on average) 50 pips per trade and you took 10 trades to make 500 pips, then you risked as much as you gained. On the other hand suppose you took 5 trades on which you risked each 20 pips, but gained 250 pips net.

 

Personally I'd favour trading a system like the second one.

 

Yes, the latter sounds better but never found something that good. I have been tightening my stops but only so tight you can get them and of course, no one can say how much a market will move on each trade/day/week.....

 

But yours is best of both worlds by the looks of it...

Btw, I see three red crosses on your chart, but no negative pips. Were all those breakeven trades??

 

No they are full losses, I just didn't put the figures on there as its in my blog essentially for me and I know how much the loss was. Its just there for storage.

[wasp 10]

That's because there isn't anything else to do :o

I'm off, catch ya later!

 

Damn annoying though!

 

have a good weekend!

[firewalker 10]

Damn annoying though!

 

have a good weekend!

 

Yeah you too, make sure it's one 'candle' at a time :beer:

[pipMonster 10]

Thanks for the lively discussion guys! Very informative. I traded my version of Wasp's strategy on paper this week for the first time. Came out 30 pips down(sorry cowpip. I had said 20-25 in an email to you) which I consider a smashing success. I made a gob of errors both in poor entries and poor exits, but that's fine by me as I'm learning and making it my own.

 

Thanks again for sharing Wasp, Cowpip and Firewalker. Much appreciated.

[cowpip 10]

Cowpip has been trying to adopt your approach I read, but perhaps he might feel more comfortable trading something that he made himself, that way he knows it inside out.

 

I appreciate the post-fest you guys had after-hours. There's some good information in there.

 

Yes, firewalker, I am trying to find my own method that works as well as Wasp's. All the years that I've been trading, I have not looked hardly at all at GJ. I have always shied away from it because it was so volatile (and I was burned sufficiently on my initial attempts to play it to stay away). As a result, I never learned the personality of this pair. And that is, very likely, the dominant reason for many of my problems.

 

I'm learning that it's "personality" is very similar to $/yen, except the moves are accentuated by about a factor of 10. That's taken some time to get used to. I'm aware of most of the tricks that the market plays, but for some reason, just haven't been able to translate what I've seen in the personality of other pairs to GJ. It's been almost like starting over from scratch.

 

But I'm getting it. And I'll nail this sucker yet. Getting bucked off won't discourage me from trying to ride this bronco. I'll tame the beast. Just need a little more time.

 

Each week, I learn more of the behavior. And I figure I'm probably seeing some of the worst behavior that's possible to be seen in the current market environment. And that's good. I want to know the extremes of its behavior.

 

The pullbacks have sometimes been so violent that I've misinterpreted them as reversals (as I did this week). I wasn't quite prepared for that, so that is something else I won't easily forget.

 

I'm definitely making progress on the S/R lines, which is a good thing. They're so critical, it's crucial to get them right.

 

Another week or two and I'm confident I can start pulling in some decent profits more consistently.

[wasp 10]

yeah I saw you weren't keen on the 'laptop by the bed' theory either.

 

I try to trail on an hourly basis over S/R now as I become more risk averse and thankfully, its not every hour but still it requires constant 24hr awareness.

 

I know full well what you mean about the fear and late entries, after that dodgy 4, I was more than cautious to say the least...

 

Whilst SHIT WILL HAPPEN is now printed on my wall, I have now set it in my plan that if I have 4 losses in a row, I walk until I have faith again...

 

Not easy I know

[cowpip 10]

Yes, I hear you. Not easy at all.

 

I just went long on the close of that last hourly. Bloody well better work out this time. The signal is as clear as the nose on my face.

[cowpip 10]

Wasp, how long do you wait until you move your stop? I know it used to be after it passed the second SR level, but I wonder if that's how you're still doing it in these conditions?

[cowpip 10]

Yep, long too.......

 

I move/trail my stop only on the hour once over S/R....

 

Sure, but how far (in the case of a long) below S/R do you move it? Or do you move it to match S/R (would seem to make better sense to move it below the S/R 10 or 20 pips).

[wasp 10]

Sure, but how far (in the case of a long) below S/R do you move it? Or do you move it to match S/R (would seem to make better sense to move it below the S/R 10 or 20 pips).

 

Oh sorry, normally around 30 pips or half way between the prior 2 S/R...

[cowpip 10]

That makes sense. Thanks.

[wasp 10]

making you smile cowpip????????!!!!!!!!!

[wasp 10]

Ahhh yes!!! Very nice and big smile!

 

I know I should have held it to the very end (this is where I get weak), but I need the profits, so I bailed at +320.

 

That was a slam-dunk! Cool! Fully paid for my losses today and padded the 'ol account too.

 

Time will breed patience and you will learn that overall, for the bank balance and for the psych, you can and should hold and trail or whatever works for you.

 

TBH, I doubt this will go much higher but for me, I used to kick myself for taking profits early and letting others I could have taken, reverse and after many months realised, as it is a marathon, not a sprint, its best to take the overall best average.

 

For the meantime though, nice one!

 

If only Lehmans and Co had us trading for them, they might be richer now!!! :rofl:

[cowpip 10]

Time will breed patience and you will learn that overall, for the bank balance and for the psych, you can and should hold and trail or whatever works for you.

 

Yeah. That's my next challenge. It could easily run up a tad higher and fill that gap before it gives up for the day. I really did want to hold it until I get another signal, but man... such a quick move higher gets me nervous for an equally quick reverse right back down. And I'd have to (yet again) dig up that dead dog and shoot it some more if that happened. And by now, it's gotta be stinking pretty bad. I do like this all-in, all-out philosophy though. It works for me.

 

TBH, I doubt this will go much higher but for me, I used to kick myself for taking profits early and letting others I could have taken, reverse and after many months realised, as it is a marathon, not a sprint, its best to take the overall best average.

 

Yeah, it might not run higher. That's quite a trip already. I find it very interesting how it's been almost entirely GBP that has done the running. I would have thought it would have tanked given the skiddish nature of the market. Just goes to show that you can't trade what you think.

 

If only Lehmans and Co had us trading for them, they might be richer now!!! :rofl:

 

LOL!

[cowpip 10]

GJ has been all over the map lately. This volatility is awesome when you're on the right side of the trade. But it can be an awful thing when you aren't. What might have taken price an hour or two to move now only takes mere minutes. It's definitely a more dangerous playground now. Just look at the daily ranges lately. This entire week it's been 500 pip daily ranges. Wow. You don't see that very often!

[pipMonster 10]

You are so right about geppy, cowpip. She's been a tough filly to ride today. I've taken a beating again. Just can't seem to find the handle. If I think up, it goes down and vice versa. I can just be thankful I'm on demo right now, getting this setup together.

[wasp 10]

witching day today chaps so be careful out there... I know a lot of people taking the day off because of it.

[pipMonster 10]

What's happening that makes it 'witching day'? Is it because of the uncertainty of tomorrow's market?

 

BTW, are you having much luck in this market today? Just wondering if you're sitting on your hands for the most part while the market whips up and down.

[Phil Mibbutz 10]

That said, I am looking to improve and reduce my risk exposure plan atm (without trying to reduce returns)...

 

Thing is I cannot think of anything better than less % or tighter stops...:\

 

Not trading is always the ultimate way to reduce risk.