Trade Discussion and Analysis

[cowpip 10]

Closed for +115. Short GJ @ 194.10.

 

I don't know if this is wise - but it's bounced off this level enough times to suggest it may be worth a try - but the trend still appears to be down.

 

Closed short for +100. Long GJ @ 193.10

 

EDIT: I'd still like to see this bounce harder and higher from here - and I still think it might, but the UK rate decision on Thursday will probably keep GBP heavy.

Edited September 3, 2008 by cowpip

[wasp 10]

fun and games......

 

a little prediction that will fall flat on its face!

Edited September 3, 2008 by wasp

[wasp 10]

I'd like to see a higher high and higher low and take out the 193 so we have a bottom and can have some swings back and forth as I much prefer that!

[wasp 10]

If we can bounce about and not break back through 193 I think we could have seen the low for now....

 

Interest rates and NFP to come this week too (not that GJ usually moves much at NFP)

[cowpip 10]

I'd like to see a higher high and higher low and take out the 193 so we have a bottom and can have some swings back and forth as I much prefer that!

 

Good point. You'll probably get that before tomorrow's rate decision. The bears are still in control here - for the mean-time anyway.

[Dinos 10]

Hi Wasp, will drop this in this thread, I do trade mainly indices, however I trade the eur/usd as as well, might drop a few trades in here.

[wasp 10]

Just want 193 to hold now and happy days!

[cowpip 10]

Hi Wasp, will drop this in this thread, I do trade mainly indices, however I trade the eur/usd as as well, might drop a few trades in here.

 

That would be cool, Dinos.

[wasp 10]

Hi Wasp, will drop this in this thread, I do trade mainly indices, however I trade the eur/usd as as well, might drop a few trades in here.

 

Cool... I got put off EURUSD in the old days on T2W when cable always dwarfed it and it never interested me from a ST POV. Too small. Be good to have a different view on a different market.

[wasp 10]

Paints a different picture and the reversal at 20 is obvious on the 4hr.

[wasp 10]

yeah...... broken hourly major trendline and through S/R. Bounce its head and bounce back down off the 4hr S/R.

 

Thats 3 times in the last 24hrs we have tried to and quickly broken R only for it to drop again so may be a sign there are some buyers about....... Either that or big money pissing about and sucking in longs before dropping it again!

 

I may live to regret it but taken 60 from my long and sitting on my hands for now... Should be short but I have my doubts.

[wasp 10]

Long GJ @ 192.30...

 

... on the very long-shot off-chance that they're stop-hunting at the base of this 4-hour candle.

 

ATM, I am kicking myself and think short is the future after all and the bottom could be far off after all.........

 

Annoying really as I don't particularity like this action.

[cowpip 10]

ATM, I am kicking myself and think short is the future after all and the bottom could be far off after all.........

 

Huh? Why the sudden change? Because we've broken (or rather, tested) the March lows, which is rather strongly bearish? I think the longer term is indeed probably bearish for GBP/JPY, but I can't live in the long-term off these 4-hour charts.

 

I still think that huge gap up there will be filled before this thing drops much lower.

 

I'm still looking for a bounce. Things are so oversold as-is. It's time. Perhaps after the rate decision tomorrow...?

[wasp 10]

Huh? Why the sudden change? Because we've broken (or rather, tested) the March lows, which is rather strongly bearish? I think the longer term is indeed probably bearish for GBP/JPY, but I can't live in the long-term off these 4-hour charts.

 

I still think that huge gap up there will be filled before this thing drops much lower.

 

I'm still looking for a bounce. Things are so oversold as-is. It's time. Perhaps after the rate decision tomorrow...?

 

I am having one of those days that, if this doesn't bounce, I am thinking off wondering off for a week and taking some time out.....

 

With the fake breaks, poxy drops and pitiful drivel in between, I am getting nowhere fast and for all the effort, its actually a waste of time so, unless we can break up from here, I am taking a break till we do find a bottom as this is boring the shit out of me tbh!

 

The crappy drops to each new support is fine and then I am giving back what I make on the crap in between. I can live with small moves but only coupled with large moves and whilst I agree, one should adapt as each moment in the markets are unique, I'm really not in the mood!

[wasp 10]

I think part of my problem is I am a tad greedy.... If I was content with 30/40 pip trades twice a day I would be in heaven right now as that's easy atm but for me, anything less than a 500+ pip week was a waste of time.

[cowpip 10]

I think part of my problem is I am a tad greedy.... If I was content with 30/40 pip trades twice a day I would be in heaven right now as that's easy atm but for me, anything less than a 500+ pip week was a waste of time.

 

You're greedy?:shocked:No way! Lol... Hey, none of us would be in this game if we weren't greedy. We all want more. If you can pull in 500+ pips a week and you're not making it, then sure - I can understand your frustration.

 

I'm on the other side of the campground right now... I'm very happy with how this has turned out so far this week. It's no 500+ pipper week for me, but it's a crap-load better than I usually do.

[wasp 10]

You're greedy?:shocked:No way! Lol... Hey, none of us would be in this game if we weren't greedy. We all want more. If you can pull in 500+ pips a week and you're not making it, then sure - I can understand your frustration.

 

I'm on the other side of the campground right now... I'm very happy with how this has turned out so far this week. It's no 500+ pipper week for me, but it's a crap-load better than I usually do.

 

The problem with this week for me though has been the winners and losers have been near the same pip count and I'm only up about 140 pips so far.

 

Go back pre this drop and we had 250 pip swings either way 2 or 3 times a week and that to me is gorgeous, I just don't like thins pop and drop malarkey but if it is going well for you, that is all good.

[cowpip 10]

My total pip count this week is 257 (excluding what this current trade does), and that's much better than I'm used to. I guess it's just perspective. I'm not used to making this much in one week (granted, I'm not used to being in the market 99% of the time either), so my opinion is obviously biased. You're used to doing far better, so of course you'll be frustrated. When I'm at your present level of experience, I'll probably feel the same way as you do.

[cowpip 10]

Wasp, do you see a support line at 191.88 or so? I've gone back and looked closer (back to about 2003) and 191.88 seems to fit better than right around 192. What do you think?

 

If this is true, then we're still good to go long on this (depending on the next half-hour).

[wasp 10]

Wasp, do you see a support line at 191.88 or so? I've gone back and looked closer (back to about 2003) and it 191.88 seems to fit better than right around 192. What do you think?

 

If this is true, then we're still good to go long on this (depending on the next half-hour).

 

This is where I see it........

[wasp 10]

Constantly I say adapt to the markets at any given time but I can't practise what I preach :crap:

 

A screenshot of how I have seen the last 2 weeks compared to a month ago...

 

You know which I prefer!

[cowpip 10]

It's bloody hard, sometimes.

[wasp 10]

Not wrong there.... looks like another breakout South.... In hindsight, they are so predictable too!

[cowpip 10]

This could still turn higher here... but the momentum for the day is gone now, so it's likely to be a rough ride higher. I guess crossing a finger or two couldn't hurt, could it?

[wasp 10]

This could still turn higher here... but the momentum for the day is gone now, so it's likely to be a rough ride higher. I guess crossing a finger or two couldn't hurt, could it?

 

Well, I just don't know atm.......... Brain freeze right now!