Trade Discussion and Analysis

[wasp 10]

Hmmm.... what do you do when price precisely matche the S/R level?...

 

Stopped for -12 and reversed long GJ @ 195.78

 

You pick one based on the overall trend / gut / trendline / coin toss and accept in these circumstances, you just can't win em all!

[wasp 10]

Right now I have finished ruining my good reputation in T2W as hedgehogs and banana fiends, back to business.........

 

Who would have thought a break would have dropped so easily... Once upon a time I would have shorted this, added and added then given it all back when it retraced sharp and hard!

 

As it is...... could this level be a bottom for some bounces now?

[wasp 10]

nice

 

 

makes me feel better anyhow....... thought we'd never bounce!

[cowpip 10]

Thanks for that.

 

Having it marked there certainly would have changed how I would have played it. Sigh...

[firewalker 10]

nice

 

 

makes me feel better anyhow....... thought we'd never bounce!

 

I wouldn't actually call that much of a bounce...

If I were a buyer around those levels, I'd get out by the first sign of trouble!

[wasp 10]

I wouldn't actually call that much of a bounce...

If I were a buyer around those levels, I'd get out by the first sign of trouble!

 

at the time it was looking more promising!

[cowpip 10]

I wouldn't actually call that much of a bounce...

If I were a buyer around those levels, I'd get out by the first sign of trouble!

 

I'll bet he reversed (short) up around 195.10 after it failed to run higher. But he may be holding, hoping price will attack the 195.75 level before reversing.

 

SOMETIME, I expect that gap to be filled. But I'd like to see price attempt to break 193.20 first (near the low of March). But it wouldn't surprise me at all to see price run up and tag 197.70 before retreating back down - just to give the lazy holidaying U.S. folks an entry.

[wasp 10]

I wouldn't actually call that much of a bounce...

If I were a buyer around those levels, I'd get out by the first sign of trouble!

 

I believe in that chart I posted on T2W as it goes FW. The rejection at 195.60 was fast BUT, we have had a higher low now and I think we will be pushing back up again first.

[firewalker 10]

I believe in that chart I posted on T2W as it goes FW. The rejection at 195.60 was fast BUT, we have had a higher low now and I think we will be pushing back up again first.

 

Well ehm... don't mean to say "I told you so"...

 

 

fwiw, I think 190 is next before we see anything of a bounce that's worth buying.

[firewalker 10]

It's dropping like a rocket in reverse.

 

Yeah, so why go long?

Let me put it this way: would you be closing a short if you were in?

[cowpip 10]

Well ehm... don't mean to say "I told you so"...

fwiw, I think 190 is next before we see anything of a bounce that's worth buying.

 

I hope you're wrong, firewalker!

 

193.18/192.50 has been a strong buying zone all the way back to 2005. We shall see. This sucker seems to be in the mood for breaking strong support levels. You may well be right.

 

EDIT: The drop seems too swift. I often see these strong sudden down moves to mark big reversals. Again, we shall see...

[wasp 10]

Yeah, so why go long?

Let me put it this way: would you be closing a short if you were in?

 

he just did!

[wasp 10]

Well ehm... don't mean to say "I told you so"...

 

 

fwiw, I think 190 is next before we see anything of a bounce that's worth buying.

 

Yeah yeah, sod off!

[firewalker 10]

he just did!

 

:doh:

 

well I would not... unless that's on support than I would scale out...

[cowpip 10]

Three reasons - and all potentially wrong:

 

1. The move down seems too strong and rapid - you see these moves during reversals. But catching that falling knife can be wickedly difficult and dangerous, I admit.

 

2. That 193.18 to 192.50 zone has been an area of strong buying interest in the past. I'm gambling on the thought that it may bounce here.

 

3. The move has happened so quickly after the close of the daily candle (and a 4-hour bar - at least, on my charts) that it stands to reason it would form a quick tail wick before reversing back up to close the day as a hammer. This is precisely the type of price action I would look for on a larger daily-time-scale reversal.

 

So I'm betting this is a reversal, but I could easily get taken out if I haven't timed this right. I hate catching these types of falling knives, but the risk to reward seems... attractive.

[cowpip 10]

2. That 193.18 to 192.50 zone has been an area of strong buying interest in the past. I'm gambling on the thought that it may bounce here.

 

Actually, it's proven as fairly reliable support all the way back to April 2004, with only a few excursions on the daily below it.

[wasp 10]

I'm with you there, with the touch of that low at 193, I thin we have now seen the bottom.

 

I'm just kicking myself as I actually deleted a vital line that would have had me in short for that but instead just scalped 80 and 30 on the down then up move.

 

Flat atm and waiting for a retest at 93 or new candle back above 94.

 

I just want a bottom so we get some intraday/week swings like prior to the drop.... I make more money of them!

[wasp 10]

Accidentally closed for +50... Word to the wise: don't leave your laptop down where your dogs can walk on it! Now... where'd I put my gun, mutt!!!

 

EDIT: Actually, +47... grrr!

 

LOL!!!!

 

was that you growling or the dog btw?!?!

[cowpip 10]

I'm with you there, with the touch of that low at 193, I thin we have now seen the bottom.

 

I'm just kicking myself as I actually deleted a vital line that would have had me in short for that but instead just scalped 80 and 30 on the down then up move.

 

Flat atm and waiting for a retest at 93 or new candle back above 94.

 

I just want a bottom so we get some intraday/week swings like prior to the drop.... I make more money of them!

 

That's what I would like to see as well.

 

Anyone want a dead dog? (just kidding...). I'm ok with it... I'll also look for a retest of 193... I have my support line at 193.18, but would prefer a drop just below there to enter. I'd like my stop ideally to be below 192.50 - just in case this thing has the legs to retest the lows.

[wasp 10]

One more time?...

 

Long GJ @ 192.95

 

Nice entry...... I'm waiting for the dust to settle a bit first.

[wasp 10]

One more time?...

 

Long GJ @ 192.95

 

Hope you took a nice profit from that....... It was a great rise up

[cowpip 10]

I'm still long.

 

Kicking myself that I wasn't awake to take the bounces off of S/R from 194.25 to 193.18... THAT would have been nice (did you manage to do that?). But I only looked every 4-hours and each time I looked it was hugging 193.18/60 and the candles still looked bullish to me. So I held - and thus far, I'm glad I have.

 

It's now cleared and closed above 194.25 support at that last 4-hour close, so I'm still holding this long position. We'll see what happens near 195.08. I'd like to see this ride up to 197.70 and close that gap, but it'll probably zig-zag between 195.08 or 195.75 and 194.25 before that happens. So maybe I'll ride it up and down a bit, as you like to do.

 

Wait and see what price tells me.

 

You've probably made a nice profit today, huh Wasp?

[wasp 10]

I'm still long.

 

Kicking myself that I wasn't awake to take the bounces off of S/R from 194.25 to 193.18... THAT would have been nice (did you manage to do that?). But I only looked every 4-hours and each time I looked it was hugging 193.18/60 and the candles still looked bullish to me. So I held - and thus far, I'm glad I have.

 

It's now cleared and closed above 194.25 support at that last 4-hour close, so I'm still holding this long position. We'll see what happens near 195.08. I'd like to see this ride up to 197.70 and close that gap, but it'll probably zig-zag between 195.08 or 195.75 and 194.25 before that happens. So maybe I'll ride it up and down a bit, as you like to do.

 

Wait and see what price tells me.

 

You've probably made a nice profit today, huh Wasp?

 

Its turning out to be a good week so far!

 

Sorry, will reply more in detail later but doing a bit of study (learning Italian) and when I am in the mood, its best for me to get on with it!

[cowpip 10]

Good going cowpip!! Excellent call about that 192...

 

Thanks firewalker. I appreciate that. Now if I could just get consistent in this strat like Wasp does... it's helping not looking at the charts. No fiddling.

[cowpip 10]

That daily candle still looks bearish. Another retest of the lows (or lower) may be in order?