Trade Discussion and Analysis

[firewalker 10]

I can see the changes now. I was seeing the same file before, but now it's different. Maybe you changed it? Or my browser crapped up. No matter. I can see the differences now. Thanks.

 

A case of screenitis me thinks...

[firewalker 10]

I still cannot believe what I am seeing; the possible profits, and knowing I missed the lot! (and bought into it losing money instead!)

 

It should have been the best week of the year and I should be on the phone to my travel agent ffs!

 

Better to be out, wishing you were in, then the opposite...

[cowpip 10]

Hindsight is 20-20 my friend. You traded what you saw. We all did. I could go nuts looking backward at lost profits. It does no good though. Just have to pick ourselves up off the floor (in my case, the basement) and start over.

 

The danger that many people make is they sell into support. The problem in downtrends this vigorous is that it's not really possible to tell where support will be, which makes it difficult for me to sell into the trend after such a hard sell off. I'm not going to feel good about selling into this until I see a good retrace. That could take days or weeks, but until then, I'll just play it as I see it, even if I'm not seeing it right at the moment I take the trade. It's all I can do.

[wasp 10]

Yep, I know you are both right and it is all we can do. Ahh well....

[JT1 10]

firewalker

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I think in this case it has more to do with the trader not identifying S/R correctly

 

100%. :crap:

 

it is a shortcoming in a plan that is looking to pin-point reversals, but when a nice big fat juicy trend arrives, not only is it capable of missing the trend, but can also lose by trying to fight/reverse the trend.

THE PLAN does not like strong trends, especially if you have plenty of S/R lines in place that the trend is running into, which (if), like today have been of no significance on H4 GJ.

 

But as said, this is due to identifying areas of S/R that did not act as such. However, this is no simple excuse. As GJ pointed out, past areas of major S/R that seem important can be passed through in a hurry, and past minor S/R can then become significant.

Therefore identifying areas of S/R that will or will not be significant is not an exact science & does require some luck.

[wasp 10]

..........does require some luck.

 

and that part I really do not like.

[cowpip 10]

... does require some luck.

 

Rabbits have serious issues with that as well.

[JT1 10]

and that part I really do not like.

 

Yep. Sorry bud. But like you said, an S/R line + or - 1 pip in a different place can see you miss the win and hit a loss, or vice-versa. No-ones fault really, it just happens.

 

I don't mind knowing/thinking there is a bit of random luck involved in the outcome of trades. That way i am inclined to take it less personally when i lose. As long as the method/logic/reason for entering was sound, its just a matter of working the averages in your favour.

[wasp 10]

Yep. Sorry bud. But like you said, an S/R line + or - 1 pip in a different place can see you miss the win and hit a loss, or vice-versa.

 

I don't mind knowing/thinking there is a bit of random luck involved in the outcome of trades. That way i don't take it personally when i lose. As long as the method/logic/reason for entering was sound, its just a matter of working the averages in your favour.

 

Not me. Unless I can be 100% certain in what I am doing, even if I am only sure of 70% success, I am not going to do it until so. I am going back to the drawing board to improve things for sure.

[cowpip 10]

Not me. Unless I can be 100% certain in what I am doing, even if I am only sure of 70% success, I am not going to do it until so. I am going back to the drawing board to improve things for sure.

 

And THAT precious little quality is what separates the men from the boys... The ability and willingness to adjust strats when needed.

[wasp 10]

And THAT precious little quality is what separates the men from the boys... The ability and willingness to adjust strats when needed.

 

Considering this market is moved by banks with billions at their disposal to ensure they make the same, to think you can accept anything less than the best to compete is ignorant.

[JT1 10]

Not me. Unless I can be 100% certain in what I am doing, even if I am only sure of 70% success, I am not going to do it until so. I am going back to the drawing board to improve things for sure.

 

Fewer, still relevent S/R lines like you posted a few posts back, will certainly make things less congested.

 

As you said, HMA's, and your trendline/s would have scooped the lot today :crap: But you weren't to know it would be an 800 pipper!

 

But HMA's/trendlines could also have seen +100 retreat to 0, as could the S/R lines alone. So there's no easy answer, without a crystal ball.

 

But i agree that being sure that all S/R lines present, are STILL relevent reasons to consider SARing is important. This would have decreased your losses today.

[JT1 10]

One thing that strikes me about only keeping relevent S/R on a chart is -

 

Because S/R levels are always changing slghtly, doesn't this essentially mean that the only lines you should be keeping on a chart are the unhit lower highs in a downtrend, and the unhit higher lows in an uptrend?

Because any other former S/R levels will already have been breached, and thus no longer relevant as S/R has moved on?

[cowpip 10]

One thing that strikes me about only keeping relevent S/R on a chart is -

 

Because S/R levels are always changing slghtly...

 

I don't believe that is true. As I said before, most of the S/R lines (if you study back in time) are almost always accurate (virtually to the pip) over a life-span as far back as my platform goes (many years).

 

Yes, price can respond within a 20 to 30 pip range of that center-zone, but if you actually look closely at price, you'll see that there is a remarkably coherent line that marks S/R over long periods of time.

 

Just because price slices through one zone does not necessarily negate it. Years of developing as a zone should not be easily negated in a few weeks.

 

EDIT: That does not mean you can't ignore it when you notice price isn't adhering to it. You can. But I believe you can't entirely axe it. It could have future relevance.

[wasp 10]

One thing that strikes me about only keeping relevent S/R on a chart is -

 

Because S/R levels are always changing slghtly, doesn't this essentially mean that the only lines you should be keeping on a chart are the unhit lower highs in a downtrend, and the unhit higher lows in an uptrend?

Because any other former S/R levels will already have been breached, and thus no longer relevant as S/R has moved on?

 

Exactly as I am thinking atm. Yes, on the larger TF S/R tends to carry alot but, on a day to day basis for a trader, you need something that adapts.

 

I shouldn't have gone with the template I did at the start of the week and expect that to hold all week.

 

Att is a chart showing the essential levels I should have had ONLY but I didn't partly because I thought I had it perfect already and partly because I am working of a laptop and need to use a bigger screen!

 

Like price, S/R is fluid and you need to be fluid with it.

[wasp 10]

Using the above alone, broken down to this on the hourly, paints a different picture altogether.

 

Only on the one occasion would there be a long option.

[wasp 10]

Lets go short term trading!

Edited August 13, 2008 by wasp

[cowpip 10]

Lets go short term trading!

 

Trading what? Right now... I'm trading my money for losses! Woo hoo! Everyone should play this game! I don't like the direction this trade is taking.

[wasp 10]

Right, this is how I am going to roll for a while.............

[cowpip 10]

Short-term is probably wise given that this is going to consolidate soon (if it hasn't already begun).

 

Can you help me decipher what it is I'm looking at?

 

The triangles are?.... the numbers are pip counts?... I recognize the S/R easy enough, but I'm not sure by the triangles how you intend to play them.

[wasp 10]

Short-term is probably wise given that this is going to consolidate soon (if it hasn't already begun).

 

Can you help me decipher what it is I'm looking at?

 

The triangles are?.... the numbers are pip counts?... I recognize the S/R easy enough, but I'm not sure by the triangles how you intend to play them.

 

The numbers are (rough) pip counts, the triangles are entries when S or R rejects and thats about it. Same as 240m, just on a shorter TF.

[cowpip 10]

Much obliged, sir! That's crystal clear now.

[wasp 10]

Much obliged, sir! That's crystal clear now.

 

no problem squire!

[firewalker 10]

Lets go short term trading!

 

A whole of trades and a whole lot of risk going against the flow if you ask me... why not - assuming you are short - stay in until the trend is over?

[wasp 10]

A whole of trades and a whole lot of risk going against the flow if you ask me... why not - assuming you are short - stay in until the trend is over?

 

...because, today was unusual, and without taking into consideration these shorter term moves, you can end up watching it retrace which, had I done over the last 2 months, I would have given back 90% of my trades.

 

This way, I am not giving anything back, nor am I buying and buying and buying into a trend.

 

I agree, cherry pick the best is a great idea, in theory, but not always best in practise.