Trade Discussion and Analysis

[firewalker 10]

Does he go on to discuss the probability of a follow through the next day?

 

Hmm, not specifically no... If you read a bit further, you find this:

 

"Remember, price is the fastest moving element, and value develops much

more slowly. On the day following an Open-Drive, you would expect to see

the market open outside of value in the direction of the Open-Drive, or at

least value beginning to build outside of the previous day’s value area.

When you start to see developments that contradict the descriptions

above, you should quickly realize that the confidence level is declining,

and if your day trade is in the same direction as the Open-Drive, your risk

is increasing along with the odds of a reversal. If the market continues

as expected, on the other hand, then maintain your position and let the

market work for you, monitoring activity for signs that the initial optimism

inherent in the Open-Drive is beginning to wane, which would suggest that

you should exit your trade; your goal should be to become proficient at

exiting trades of your own free volition, rather than waiting for stops to

take you out. This practice will boost your confidence level (not to mention

your bank account)."

[cowpip 10]

IDEAl pro fx on IB seems to vary between 2-5

have a look...

 

Oanda varies as follows:

 

Asian weekend hours: 20 pips (but they open when most other platforms are closed, and you can execute weekend trades even when price is flatlined).

 

Normal Asian hours: 6.5-7.0 pips

 

Europe / UK / US overlap: 4.0 pips

 

US only hours: 6.5 pips

 

I've been with Oanda for years. They've been good to me.

[cowpip 10]

Wasp, do you have any etiquette for posting trades you were too tired to post during the night? Yes, they aren't real-time, but they're real trades. Don't post them and keep things real-time only? Or just post pip profits? Or ignore them altogether?

[wasp 10]

Post them if you like...

 

Personally, I'm not doing this to show off or prove anything so whether a trade is believed or not (due to not being live) is irrelevant to me, I'd rather the thread focused on the why and where and how etc and discuss the reasoning's behind everyone's trades.

[cowpip 10]

Post them if you like...

 

Personally, I'm not doing this to show off or prove anything so whether a trade is believed or not (due to not being live) is irrelevant to me, I'd rather the thread focused on the why and where and how etc and discuss the reasoning's behind everyone's trades.

 

Fair enough. Nothing done here should be done to show off, which is why I believe if you decide to post, you should post your losses as readily as your wins.

 

I'll post only the trades I do in real-time. However, I will say I'm currently short GJ.

[wasp 10]

Fair enough. Nothing done here should be done to show off, which is why I believe if you decide to post, you should post your losses as readily as your wins.

 

I'll post only the trades I do in real-time. However, I will say I'm currently short GJ.

 

Cool, me too, but must say I was hoping for a bit more enthusiasm in the drop and will be going long soon at this rate. :\

[cowpip 10]

Agreed. It looks like a consolidation day. Range-plays off of these S/R zones would probably be more profitable today.

 

I detest when price makes the near-daily-range during the first few hours after the weekend open. What a pain.

 

As was said, price may choppily range down toward that low, but if price action doesn't soon start thrusting lower, today's daily candle may print in a bullish config.

[wasp 10]

ahhh well, looks like up is the new down... Just hope it can do that with some vengeance!

[wasp 10]

Looks like that short is going to happen now we have reversed cowpip

[cowpip 10]

Looks like that short is going to happen now we have reversed cowpip

 

But of COURSE! :\

 

I didn't like that hourly hammer print, but I'll hold this for a bit longer to see if price can negate it. But I agree.. price action isn't terribly encouraging at the moment.

[cowpip 10]

It would be nice if the hourly print coming up could close above this S/R zone around 75. Otherwise, it'll draw a sustained "hmmm..." out of me.

[smbtnt 10]

Closed for +21

 

Long GJ @ 210.90

 

I assume you are all in and all out, every trade is a reversal i.e if the signal to exit is genuine then the reverse must hold true and hence the long trade?

No banking of profits at s/r etc?

[wasp 10]

I assume you are all in and all out, every trade is a reversal i.e if the signal to exit is genuine then the reverse must hold true and hence the long trade?

No banking of profits at s/r etc?

 

Nope, I enter with everything on Sunday night and every trade is 100% till the close of that trade and then its all in again as I reverse and so on till Friday afternoon.

 

If I have a reason to exit I have a reason to enter and nothing matters between those points otherwise I'd be reversing.

[wasp 10]

.....

 

"The strongest and most definitive type of open is the Open-Drive, in which the market opens and auctions aggressively in one direction. In Mind over Markets, the analogy we used was that of a race horse that explodes out of the gate and never looks back. The Open-Drive results in the lowest odds of opening prices being revisited, which provides you with an early market reference point; if price returns to the opening, you know that something has changed since the early morning, and chances are much higher that the day will end with the market auctioning in the opposite direction."

 

---------------------------------------

 

"Remember, price is the fastest moving element, and value develops much

more slowly. On the day following an Open-Drive, you would expect to see

the market open outside of value in the direction of the Open-Drive, or at

least value beginning to build outside of the previous day’s value area.

When you start to see developments that contradict the descriptions

above, you should quickly realize that the confidence level is declining,

and if your day trade is in the same direction as the Open-Drive, your risk

is increasing along with the odds of a reversal. If the market continues

as expected, on the other hand, then maintain your position and let the

market work for you, monitoring activity for signs that the initial optimism

inherent in the Open-Drive is beginning to wane, which would suggest that

you should exit your trade; your goal should be to become proficient at

exiting trades of your own free volition, rather than waiting for stops to

take you out. This practice will boost your confidence level (not to mention

your bank account)."

 

Easy to label action in hindsight. Oh, and price is not it's own entity like a computer program, its buyers and sellers and every tick tells the story of what will happen next. Labelling a days action on prior occurances similar is a road to ruin.

 

God I hate trading books.

[cowpip 10]

BTW, we now also have a 4-hour inside bar.

[wasp 10]

BTW, we now also have a 4-hour inside bar.

 

What's that?

[cowpip 10]

A candle entirely inside another candle. Often used as a trigger for longs (when price breaks the inside bar candle on the upside) or shorts on the downside. It's either-or, but the preference for breaks is in the direction of prior movement (which in this case would be short).

[wasp 10]

A candle entirely inside another candle. Often used as a trigger for longs (when price breaks the inside bar candle on the upside) or shorts on the downside. It's either-or, but the preference for breaks is in the direction of prior movement (which in this case would be short).

 

Ahh, I don't hold much stock in candlestick patterns. It relies on those pumping a lot of money into the market seeing exactly the same setup. Not only does that mean they have to use the same charts, but also candlesticks and also the same timeframe and providers that use 240m candles all at the same time. From experience in brokerages, half these people use 'mountain' setups, some line charts and others no charts at all.

 

The only thing I know for sure that all bank FX traders note is key s/R levels.

[cowpip 10]

That's a very interesting observation.

[wasp 10]

That's a very interesting observation.

 

Not to say people cannot make money from it but to me its not much different to a stochastic crossover setup. More coincidence than solid reasoning.

 

Do you use them a lot (candlestick patterns?)

[wasp 10]

Lost a bit of zest over the last couple of weeks...

 

There was 2 quiet weeks, two great weeks then the last 2 have been tame but prior to those, 200 pip candles were not uncommon. I hope post Summer(!) life comes back.

[firewalker 10]

Easy to label action in hindsight. Oh, and price is not it's own entity like a computer program, its buyers and sellers and every tick tells the story of what will happen next. Labelling a days action on prior occurances similar is a road to ruin.

 

God I hate trading books.

 

Lol, I thought you might say that. And although I agree there is no substitute for screentime, this author isn't just anyone who sells books, he actually trades and he used to be vice president of the CBOE.

 

Also, I truly believe that what price opens is a result of the information of the previous day and days. For example, when price opens outside of the previous day's range (or 'value') and departs from it, you often have yourself a higher probability of a trending day.

 

The thing about Market Profile is that it not stresses the importance of value, not just price, the book departs from a couple of interesting concepts. Not that it makes me change my strategy, but it does help give me a better understanding of why the market moves in the way it does.

[wasp 10]

......... it does help give me a better understanding of why the market moves in the way it does.

 

There's your first clue!

[Kiwi 16]

The thing about Market Profile is that it not stresses the importance of value, not just price, the book departs from a couple of interesting concepts. Not that it makes me change my strategy, but it does help give me a better understanding of why the market moves in the way it does.

 

It cloaks itself in value ... but really is a discussion of perceived value or what I would once have callously called congestion zones.

 

I think the people who read Market Profile and get a warm feeling of superior knowledge but don't change their strategy are the lucky ones. I too am in that group; I feel as warmly knowledgeable as you firewalker. The unlucky are those that try to trade based on those books - there are easier ways, trust me.

[JT1 10]

Hi wasp

 

with the H4 chart you are discretionarily trading with, how long (mins/hours) per h4 candle are you finding you are screen-watching for?

 

Also, with your continuous horizontal lines, its difficult-impossible to see where they start from. Have you thought of marking the start point in some way, every time you add a new one?

 

Cheers.

Edited August 12, 2008 by JT1