Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

firewalker

Trade Discussion and Analysis

Recommended Posts

In approx 13 minutes.

 

What is the current time there? It's currently almost 18 GMT according to the world clock. Are you accounting for daylight savings time?

 

I would have thought your daily candle open time would have been closer to the Asian market open hours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What is the current time there? It's currently almost 18 GMT according to the world clock. Are you accounting for daylight savings time?

 

I would have thought your daily candle open time would have been closer to the Asian market open hours.

 

My bad, thought you meant 240m. It is 7:24 local time and my daily candle is at 11pm so 3 hours 36 minutes to go....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
My bad, thought you meant 240m. It is 7:24 local time and my daily candle is at 11pm so 3 hours 36 minutes to go....

 

Ahhh, that's much better. Thanks for the clarification.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wasp, on your chart for today that you posted in the traders log, you have a short horizontal line penciled in around mid-July that just incorporates the small dip / reversal that took place. You explained that the short lines are just for reference and you don't use them to base decisions off of. Why pencil them in at all if they aren't used to make decisions? I'm confused why they're shown if you don't make use of them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Wasp, on your chart for today that you posted in the traders log, you have a short horizontal line penciled in around mid-July that just incorporates the small dip / reversal that took place. You explained that the short lines are just for reference and you don't use them to base decisions off of. Why pencil them in at all if they aren't used to make decisions? I'm confused why they're shown if you don't make use of them.

 

Do you mean this one?

short.thumb.gif.7bf68f69bf6096066b17f1804a55d540.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That one, along with any others similar (ie short, not whole screen) are purely minor levels between my major levels which I was looking at and monitoring for their effectiveness of turning price. These minor levels came out 50/50 and whilst I am not using them because of this reason, they are still there for my interest and confirmation occasionally but it is only the major full screen levels that matter to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am getting a bit fed up with this to be honest.

 

My stops and risk is based on the statistics of this market moving 200 points on average in a good move, and stops at 60 are justified.

 

At the moment the profits are hardly any better than the stops and whilst it spikes about and takes 3 hours to move 50 pips, it just doesn't warrant my methods.

 

The reward just isn't justifying the risk. Its either a case of waiting for better times, or reducing the stops. Have to think about this....!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am getting a bit fed up with this to be honest.

 

My stops and risk is based on the statistics of this market moving 200 points on average in a good move, and stops at 60 are justified.

 

At the moment the profits are hardly any better than the stops and whilst it spikes about and takes 3 hours to move 50 pips, it just doesn't warrant my methods.

 

The reward just isn't justifying the risk. Its either a case of waiting for better times, or reducing the stops. Have to think about this....!

 

wasp,

are you trading just the GY, or splitting your resources across multiple pairs?

 

I am finding the spikey action equally frustrating, as it takes out my stops, only to resume the trend.

good luck with it, and also cowpip, quite a fascinating thread what with no indicators and all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cheers Myrtle, these conditions suck ay! I am only trading GBPJPY at the moment, trying to concentrate the capital into the 'biggest' moving market! Except at the moment, in comparison, its the smallest!

 

As for indicators, we are using them, S and R!

 

 

 

_____________________________________________________________

 

I liked this post I made somewhere else.............

 

Dave, a market stall owner sold fruit. He sold a lot of oranges. When he first started trading, he sold them for 5p each. They sold better than whisky at an alcoholics anonymous meeting. He put them up to 10p, still sold... 20p, 30p... Obviously good oranges.

 

At 30p the sales started slowing down, he dropped them to 25p and they were selling again. Dave, being a greedy bugger went to 35p and business was okay. Jumped up to 45p and only a few went here and there. Things started to peak. He dropped back down to 40p, then 35p... business was still slow... He went back down to 30p, things picked up and he saw all his old customers come back. He kept them there for a little while, then as things stayed constant, he started to push prices up again. The same thing happened at 45p as they were again, too expensive.

 

This time, a stall opened next to him with even juicier oranges. Dave had to drop prices to 30p again but still no good, he had a bit of interest.. but he had to go back to 25p...

 

Economists and bloomberg analysts said after the event that it was the new stall, the fact it started raining oranges and something else to do with America probably, technical analysts looked at the stats in a chart, saw key levels sat at 25p, 30p, an 45p.

 

Supply, demand, support, resistance. Call it what you will and view it through FA or TA, but at the end of the day, TA always works.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am getting a bit fed up with this to be honest.

 

My stops and risk is based on the statistics of this market moving 200 points on average in a good move, and stops at 60 are justified.

 

At the moment the profits are hardly any better than the stops and whilst it spikes about and takes 3 hours to move 50 pips, it just doesn't warrant my methods.

 

The reward just isn't justifying the risk. Its either a case of waiting for better times, or reducing the stops. Have to think about this....!

 

This scenario more or less captures the very essence of any dilemna about trading, a trading paln etc. that i have ever had. When R & R equal themselves out, you at least need a comfortable majority of winners to make the plan satisfactory.

 

Then playing about with stop sizes etc. to find the optimal overall performance. Its often swings and rounabouts Reducing the SL, in my experience of testing this type of idea, often makes little difference, for better or worse. Other times it can make a big difference for better or worse. If only we knew what was going to happen next. That would solve the problems totally. We need an insider......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've taken a sound little beating, to be sure. But I have been using half the normal size during this time as I get more familiar with this particular method of playing. The strategy itself seems sound to me (Wasp's performance is evidence enough) and fits my methods almost like a glove. I've been over-analyzing on the lower time-frames, which has been my downfall thus far.

 

Like Wasp says... the market isn't behaving according to the statistical norms, which dulls the edge somewhat. I suspect things won't begin to revert back to something more normal until after this week is done. NFP last week and rate decisions galore this week will probably keep many of the big players side-lined.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like Wasp says... the market isn't behaving according to the statistical norms, which dulls the edge somewhat. I suspect things won't begin to revert back to something more normal until after this week is done. NFP last week and rate decisions galore this week will probably keep many of the big players side-lined.

 

Not sure NFP and the rates play that much part in a non US related market (I am not a fan of anything US related and their egos hence trading this pair!) and I think its more down to the time of year and caution by banks as they are all losing money! Which makes me smile regardless!!

 

But, yes.... It certainly dulls the edge that's for sure :angry:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One thing I have noticed is that when the dollar is the dominant mover, the cross pairs tend to go sideways. I don't know why... maybe people tend to fixate on what's moving as opposed to those that aren't?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BTW wasp

 

i just ran a quick 6 month back-test of my HMA EA on H4 for the majors, a few other pairs, plus most yen pairs.

 

Its been a few months since i have done this, and usually these backtest results have been very pleasing. However, the past 6 months has returned across the board really poor test results, which must mean that the H4 trends have been generally choppy over the last 6 months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I also think, since the credit crunch/housing collapse is mainly UK/US, the bank guys have been trading dollar crosses more so.

 

Not sure what gammajammer would think?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
BTW wasp

 

i just ran a quick 6 month back-test of my HMA EA on H4 for the majors, a few other pairs, plus most yen pairs.

 

Its been a few months since i have done this, and usually these backtest results have been very pleasing. However, the past 6 months has returned across the board really poor test results, which must mean that the H4 trends have been generally choppy over the last 6 months.

 

HMAs!!??

naughty, naughty! :eek:

 

I am by no means a no-indicator bod, but the narrow ranges are more obvious on the 4-hrs, giving rise to potential breakout modes, as are pin-bar type events. but still I dont trade them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
HMAs!!??

naughty, naughty! :eek:

 

I am by no means a no-indicator bod, but the narrow ranges are more obvious on the 4-hrs, giving rise to potential breakout modes, as are pin-bar type events. but still I dont trade them.

 

Yes, "indicator" is a dirty word for me

:missy::helloooo:

Tis better to go down fighting, and believing you know what is happening, and having a reason for doing what you did, rather than placing this responsibility into the hands of some visual representation of a mathematical formula.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another question for you Wasp. In a case where price runs well past your entry and then comes back (like now, after testing the next resistance level), do you ever close your position and try to reorient it at another location, or have you found that doing so doesn't usually provide you with a better entry?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the current example, the 4-hour candle has closed in a bearish config, so I would probably hold. But if it closed in a candle such as something like a spinning top-instead, how would you handle it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Another question for you Wasp. In a case where price runs well past your entry and then comes back (like now, after testing the next resistance level), do you ever close your position and try to reorient it at another location, or have you found that doing so doesn't usually provide you with a better entry?

 

Nope, whenever I think I am getting a better price it always carries on going the other way so I just stick to what the new 240 min candle says!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
you are essentially always in the market.

your rules are Stop and Reverse?

are there any conditions under which you are actually out of the market?

 

I'll let Wasp respond to this one, but from what I understand, if conditions deteriorate such that the risk to reward ratio moves toward unity, it's worth stepping out and waiting or search for another pair (or change stop sizes and target sizes). But that's just common sense.

 

For myself, if I take too many consecutive losses, I'll step out and reassess, as that's usually a sign of a mis-step. But again, that's just common sense too.

 

EDIT: Forgot... if I get the timing off, I'll personally step out and wait until I get a valid signal.

Edited by cowpip

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • GFL Environmental stock, watch for a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?GFL
    • PLBY Group stock watch, nice trend with a pullback to 1.83 gap support area, bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?PLBY
    • Date: 24th February 2025.   German Markets Surge as Friedrich Merz Set To Be Chancellor, Euro Gains on Fiscal Shift   Germany’s stock index futures and the euro rallied after opposition leader Friedrich Merz secured victory. Investors expect a shift toward increased government spending. US-China trade tensions rise as Trump tightens restrictions on Chinese investments. AI optimism fuels Chinese tech stocks despite regulatory concerns. Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday is expected to impact market volatility. German Markets React to Election Results Germany’s stock market and currency experienced a sharp rally in Asian trading after conservative leader Friedrich Merz won the country’s federal election. This victory aligns with pre-election polls and signals a potential departure from Germany’s traditionally strict fiscal policies. Futures tied to the DAX Index surged as much as 1.5% on Monday, recovering from early losses in a session marked by thin trading volume. Meanwhile, the euro strengthened against most major currencies, climbing 0.7% against the U.S. dollar. Market analysts believe Merz’s leadership could mark the end of Germany’s tight fiscal stance, with expectations that his administration will prioritize economic stimulus. This shift comes at a critical time, as Europe’s largest economy grapples with sluggish growth, geopolitical uncertainties, and the threat of a global trade war under U.S. President Donald Trump. The euro’s strength also reflects optimism that Merz will form a government quickly, which wasn’t a widely held expectation before the election.     US-China Trade Tensions Intensify While European markets gained, US-China trade tensions escalated as Trump ordered stricter regulations on Chinese investments in key sectors, including technology, energy, and infrastructure. The move is part of a broader strategy to limit China’s influence in strategic industries. Although not legally binding, the directive strengthens oversight by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a panel responsible for reviewing foreign acquisitions. JPMorgan strategists warned that this decision could reverse gains in Chinese tech stocks, which had rallied earlier in the year. Despite geopolitical headwinds, Chinese technology stocks have posted strong gains this year, largely driven by optimism in artificial intelligence (AI) and key policy shifts. The market remains under-owned by global investors, suggesting potential for further capital inflows. The growing AI industry has helped offset risks from US tariffs, with investor sentiment remaining bullish on leading Chinese firms like Alibaba and Tencent. Chinese officials reacted strongly, with Vice Premier He Lifeng raising concerns about Trump’s recent 10% tariff hike on Chinese goods in a call with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Additionally, sources revealed that Trump’s administration urged Mexico to impose tariffs on Chinese imports as part of broader trade negotiations.   Despite these challenges, investor focus remains on Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, a key event that could drive market volatility.   Gold Nears Record Highs on Inflation and Central Bank Demand Gold prices held near $2,940 an ounce, just shy of last week’s record, as ETF inflows surged and the US dollar weakened. The precious metal is on its longest winning streak since 2020, fueled by rising inflation expectations and mounting geopolitical uncertainties under Trump’s administration. Lower US Treasury yields have also boosted bullion’s appeal, with traders now expecting the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in July rather than September. Markets will closely watch Friday’s inflation data, a key indicator for Fed policy direction. Final Thoughts Markets are reacting to a mix of political and economic shifts, with Germany’s election outcome boosting European equities while US-China trade tensions create uncertainty for Asian markets. Investors will be closely monitoring fiscal policy changes in Germany, Nvidia’s earnings, and further trade developments for insights into market direction. For more financial market insights and updates, stay tuned. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • INO Inovio Pharmaceuticals stock, holding strong, watch for a bottom breakout above 2.36 at https://stockconsultant.com/?INO
    • Date: 21st February 2025.   European PMI Disappoint, Weighing on Euro Before German Elections   The Euro is the first currency to witness the volatility on this month’s PMI reports. The French, German and British PMI data have resulted in the Euro being the worst-performing currency of the European Session so far. However, will the Euro continue to decline throughout the day? European Purchasing Managers’ Indexes The French Purchasing Managers Index was the first European index to be made public. The release resulted in the Euro instantly declining 0.24%. The main concern from the French data was the Services PMI which fell from 48.2 to 44.5. Previously the market was expecting the data to remain more or less unchanged. The weak data triggered the decline which came to a halt after Germany’s PMI was released.     The German Manufacturing PMI read 0.5 points higher than previous expectations and the Services PMI was 0.2 points lower. The data from Germany was a relief for Euro investors and the price rose 0.12% higher. However, traders should note that the price of the EURUSD continues to remain 0.20% lower than yesterday’s close. The price of the EURUSD will now depend on the PMI data from the US. The value of the US Dollar will depend on its PMI release this afternoon and the Consumer Sentiment Index. Analysts expect both the US Services and Manufacturing PMI data to remain above the 50.00 level in the expansion zone. German Elections 2 Days Away Germany is set to hold a general election this Sunday, February 23rd, following the collapse of the coalition of social democrats, liberals, and greens. Given the country's highly proportional electoral system, German polls provide a strong indication of potential government formations post-election. The main concern for Germany is the AFD party who are Far-Right Nationalists. Currently, ahead in the polls are CDU (centre-right), and AFD (far right), followed by the SPD (centre-left). Traders should note that the results of the elections are likely to trigger strong volatility on Monday, but also influence volatility today. Economists may become further concerned if the far-right gains power for the first time due to uncertainty. If the government, similar to France, is unable to form a coalition, this would also be a concern for the Eurozone. Furthermore, the Euro this week is also under pressure from comments from members of the European Central Bank. ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said to journalists that officials need not slow interest rate cuts, as January's 2.5% inflation is still expected to reach the 2.0% target this year. He also advised the European economy is weaker than previously expected. EURUSD - Technical Analysis and Indicators The EURUSD is trading above the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average and 100-bar Simple Moving Average on the 2-hour chart. However, the price is moving away from the key resistance level at 1.05058 indicating the price is losing momentum. The short-term volatility is indicating the price is retracing downwards. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price is trading below the 200-bar SMA and is also forming clear lower lows and highs. Simultaneously, the US Dollar Index is trading above the 200-bar SMA on the 5-minute chart confirming no current conflicts. Currently, the US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day attempting to regain losses from the past 2 weeks. Watch today’s Live Analysis Session for more signals as they develop!   Key Takeaway Points: Weak French Services PMI triggered an initial Euro decline, but German PMI provide a slight relief. However, EURUSD remains lower than yesterday’s close. The Euro’s direction now depends on the US PMI reports, with analysts expecting US data to stay in expansion territory. Sunday's German election could drive volatility, especially if the far-right AFD gains power or if coalition formation proves difficult. ECB official Fabio Panetta suggested no need to slow rate cuts, citing weaker-than-expected economic performance and expected inflation decline. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.