Trade Discussion and Analysis

[cowpip 10]

  wasp said:

Well done cowpip, you were correct but stats wise, I am happy to take the loss regardless, still got plenty of edge!

 

If I had any conviction in my opinion, I would have traded short, wasp. But I did not. I've been neutral on that pair, preferring to wait until after NFP and this horridly flat week. At least you had the gumption to work the pair. Sorry to hear about the loss, but hey, that was a BEAUTIFUL location to short the pair from... and in your sleep to boot! I'm beginning to see the value of waking every 4 hours.

 

Well done indeed!

[cowpip 10]

Wasp, when you take your entries, do you have any profit targets marked? Do you go all in, all out, or do you manage your money through stepped scaleouts / add-ins? I'm curious where your current targets are (previous support levels, no doubt, such as 211.60, followed by perhaps 209.85)?

[wasp 10]

  cowpip said:

Wasp, when you take your entries, do you have any profit targets marked? Do you go all in, all out, or do you manage your money through stepped scaleouts / add-ins? I'm curious where your current targets are (previous support levels, no doubt, such as 211.60, followed by perhaps 209.85)?

 

I am all in from the word go and stay all in till I am done. My exits are based on action at S/R so whilst aware of certain areas, I don't have targets/limits.

 

Oh, also depends on what else I am doing/how much I have made during the week.

[firewalker 10]

  wasp said:

I am all in from the word go and stay all in till I am done. My exits are based on action at S/R so whilst aware of certain areas, I don't have targets/limits.

 

Oh, also depends on what else I am doing/how much I have made during the week.

 

I think not having fixed targets is very sensible, as the market is dynamic and static targets are irrelevant as far as the market is concerned.

 

The second item you mention seems less "good practice" though... you mean you trade more/less aggressively ("loose"?) after a string of winners?

[cowpip 10]

  firewalker said:

I think not having fixed targets is very sensible, as the market is dynamic and static targets are irrelevant as far as the market is concerned.

 

Excellent point! Well said.

[wasp 10]

  firewalker said:

The second item you mention seems less "good practice" though... you mean you trade more/less aggressively ("loose"?) after a string of winners?

 

No, it means if I have made 400 pips by Thursday lunch I'm not going to waste Friday in front of a computer when I could be enjoying life, content with a well above weekly average return.

[cowpip 10]

Wasp, when you actually push the button and take on a trade, what time-frame do you typically have focused on your screen? I realize it probably varies depending on the type of pattern you're seeing, but every trader I know will fine-tune entries by zooming in a certain extent. If you do this, I'm curious how far you "typically" zoom in.

[wasp 10]

  cowpip said:

Wasp, when you actually push the button and take on a trade, what time-frame do you typically have focused on your screen? I realize it probably varies depending on the type of pattern you're seeing, but every trader I know will fine-tune entries by zooming in a certain extent. If you do this, I'm curious how far you "typically" zoom in.

 

I trade 90% of the time from 240m charts. I watch the dailies and I may zoom into the hourlies. Most of the time though, if price rejects a level of S/D then I'm happy to get in anywhere in the region of 20 pips +/- of that area. People can get so **** about perfection and maximizing 10 pips here and there but with 80% W/L rate and usual 3 times the size of win vs losers, I become complacent.

 

HTH.

[cowpip 10]

  wasp said:

I trade 90% of the time from 240m charts. I watch the dailies and I may zoom into the hourlies. Most of the time though, if price rejects a level of S/D then I'm happy to get in anywhere in the region of 20 pips +/- of that area. People can get so **** about perfection and maximizing 10 pips here and there but with 80% W/L rate and usual 3 times the size of win vs losers, I become complacent.

 

Understandably so!

 

I apologize for picking your brains, but I'm finding your methods attractive and in-line with many of my personal views (except perhaps for my need for a fundamental fix). I'm doing well trading using my own strat, but am always on the lookout for other methods and/or tools to apply. So I really appreciate your willingness to enlighten me.

 

  wasp said:

Most of the time though, if price rejects a level of S/D then I'm happy to get in anywhere in the region of 20 pips +/- of that area.

 

A 20-pip "zone" on a 240-min chart is usually a dinky area to engage on your screen. Rejections at a support area, as you know, will manifest themselves more readily on the hourly or sub-hourly charts than on the 4-hour charts. In my experience (which undoubtedly is less extensive than yours), by the time a 4-hour rejection candle forms, price is well beyond your desired 20-pip range and that boat may have already sailed. So I was left thinking that you probably zoom into the hourlies to swing from, getting confirmation of a reversal and then waiting for a pull-back to your zone for the entry?

 

Or, does GJ generally provide you with a 4-hour candle reversal pattern and then retest the lows to provide you with an entry (like a double-bottom type pattern)?

 

For me, an entry to within a 20-pip S/R range on GJ IS somewhat perfectionistic given the nature of that pair.

[cowpip 10]

Wasp, I've been going through your posts on this thread and have answered most of my own questions. I know... I should have done that first before asking. My wife keeps telling me to think first, then speak. But hey, I'm a guy! What can I say!

 

The only big question I have right now is in the way you draw and use your trend lines. Most of them seem to go from open/closing prices, rather than from the lower/upper wicks. The trend lines drawn that way encompass the majority of the price action and I can see how they might give you an earlier alert to a trend change at a key S/R level. Is that how you're using them?

[wasp 10]

  cowpip said:

Understandably so!

 

I apologize for picking your brains, but I'm finding your methods attractive and in-line with many of my personal views (except perhaps for my need for a fundamental fix). I'm doing well trading using my own strat, but am always on the lookout for other methods and/or tools to apply. So I really appreciate your willingness to enlighten me.

 

No problems at all. My ways are 20 years old and so simple even my sister could do it (which she does! - not very well though, bloody women traders! ), although, I will say, don't take too much from it. I have included a post at the bottom which I made over on T2W to explain. Its great you have a way of doing well which incorporates your needs (ie FA) and there is nowt wrong with seeing what others do.

 

  cowpip said:

A 20-pip "zone" on a 240-min chart is usually a dinky area to engage on your screen. Rejections at a support area, as you know, will manifest themselves more readily on the hourly or sub-hourly charts than on the 4-hour charts. In my experience (which undoubtedly is less extensive than yours), by the time a 4-hour rejection candle forms, price is well beyond your desired 20-pip range and that boat may have already sailed. So I was left thinking that you probably zoom into the hourlies to swing from, getting confirmation of a reversal and then waiting for a pull-back to your zone for the entry?

 

Or, does GJ generally provide you with a 4-hour candle reversal pattern and then retest the lows to provide you with an entry (like a double-bottom type pattern)?

 

It is like a double bottom I guess but gave up labelling things a long time ago. Why do we use stops and why do feel the need to give price 'breathing space' before our entries flourish. In my experience, Price will always retest the area it reversed at for a number of reasons. 1) traders seeing if there is life let in the prior move 2) those who know, want in at a better price 3) weak hands getting in waaaay too late.

 

Therefore, I wait for price to reject the level on the 4 hour (a wise banker once told me prime brokerage traders don't pay attention under this TF), then place my entries at around 20/25 pips from said level, depending on the strength of the rejection. 9/10 it will get back there before moving away. I also do it like this (with orders at 20+/- after rejection as I don't want to spend all day at the screen).

 

  cowpip said:

For me, an entry to within a 20-pip S/R range on GJ IS somewhat perfectionistic given the nature of that pair.

 

Take a look at the chart. You'll be surprised.

 

  cowpip said:

Wasp, I've been going through your posts on this thread and have answered most of my own questions. I know... I should have done that first before asking. My wife keeps telling me to think first, then speak. But hey, I'm a guy! What can I say!

 

The only big question I have right now is in the way you draw and use your trend lines. Most of them seem to go from open/closing prices, rather than from the lower/upper wicks. The trend lines drawn that way encompass the majority of the price action and I can see how they might give you an earlier alert to a trend change at a key S/R level. Is that how you're using them?

 

I have been told before that I draw lines very differently to others. Good or bad, it works well for me. I don't use trend lines much any more, only support and resistance (see chart) and yes. I use the bodies not the wicks. See, without waffling too much, I don't hold much stock in anything written anywhere and people should experience not do as the books/websites say. Look at the chart and how much easier to read S/R is through bodies than wicks. All the wicks are good for is showing strength and weakness IMO. They help you decipher what's next and what those with money are doing.

 

HTH, I'm not great at explaining what I mean, sorry, its just ingrained in my brain now but feel free to ask anything else.

 

 

_______________

 

From T2W...

 

 

Exactly. Everyone is different.

 

You and I may both trade purely off the reactions at levels of supply and demand but,

 

I may have a bigger appetitive for risk.

I may be greedier.

I may use a trend line here and there.

I might favour a tighter stop and more trades.

I might be after 400 points per week whilst you are content with 20.

I might prefer holding for a day or two whilst you only an hour.

 

I may have my eyes on trading till I can afford a 40ft yacht, the next man just wanting to pay the bills and afford presents for the kids.

 

There are so many variables in not only how one trades, but also ones goals, risk appetite, targets, wants and needs. Not to mention all the markets on offer....

 

This partly negates the point of forums too as most new threads will head in the direction of finding one particular final answer when there is no such thing. Someone comes along and will state emphatically you must do X, Y or Zee which, for one person is perfect, another useless. Take stops for just one example banded about constantly.

 

Anyhow, I am waffling. End of the day, there is no definitive way as everyone is different and thus, the best path to success, IMO, is doing it all yourself.

Edited August 2, 2008 by wasp
quick chart add

[wasp 10]

I have a question for you as it goes cowpip.

 

You said the other day you would expect the pound to drop because of the economy.

 

Makes sense in theory but, and this is why I don't trade using FA; the economy has been going downhill for months, all around the world, the knock on effect from the US is hitting both the UK and Japan so lets forget the USDJPY and EURJPY and GBPUSD correlation, hwo do you decipher what should happen in the GBPJPY pair with such conflicting FA?

 

Then to actually day trade that with sensible stops is something that really confuses me. Anyone who can use that despite the pound rising for the last 3 months gets me congratulations!

[myrtleturtle 10]

  wasp said:

No, it means if I have made 400 pips by Thursday lunch I'm not going to waste Friday in front of a computer when I could be enjoying life, content with a well above weekly average return.

 

what IS your weekly average? I appreciate it is a function of volatility.

and is this per chart, or overall across all trades?

 

I would have thought that your pip-count of 400 would have been the norm, not above-average.

 

(having re-read this thread, and that you trade off 4-hrs, I remmeber JT asking about setting alarms for waking up every 4-hrs over on the T2W thread.)

[wasp 10]

  myrtleturtle said:

what IS your weekly average? I appreciate it is a function of volatility.

and is this per chart, or overall across all trades?

 

I would have thought that your pip-count of 400 would have been the norm, not above-average.

 

(having re-read this thread, and that you trade off 4-hrs, I remmeber JT asking about setting alarms for waking up every 4-hrs over on the T2W thread.)

 

Mornin' Myrtle,

 

400 is above average as I am happy with 250 and once the average so worked out over the year (this chart is just what would fit on the screenshot) it equates to around 250/300.

 

I certainly do set alarms. Every 4 hours whether at the pub/beach/garden, I login and act if required. I try not to spend too much time at the screen between these times either and occasionally have a mid afternoon siesta so its not a problem waking up (the money is worth it!). Underneath 4 hours is just noise for me so whilst waking at 3am to press a button is justified for me.

[JT1 10]

  myrtleturtle said:

(having re-read this thread, and that you trade off 4-hrs, I remmeber JT asking about setting alarms for waking up every 4-hrs over on the T2W thread.)

 

Although I haven't done this, i was intimidated slightly by the idea of having to monitor multiple positions 6 times per day, 5 days per week off H4, in the middle of the night.

Now though, after a reality check i think it would be fairly easy really.

As i see it, i get up maybe twice a night for a sl*** anway, so what big a differnce does it really make having to switch the PC on.

Also, I've got more used to sleeping 4 hours here and there, and so think it is something a motivated person could quickly adjust to an altered sleep pattern with a bit of chart reading thrown in!

[JT1 10]

  wasp said:

Mornin' Myrtle,

 

400 is above average as I am happy with 250 and once the average so worked out over the year (this chart is just what would fit on the screenshot) it equates to around 250/300.

 

I certainly do set alarms. Every 4 hours whether at the pub/beach/garden, I login and act if required. I try not to spend too much time at the screen between these times either and occasionally have a mid afternoon siesta so its not a problem waking up (the money is worth it!). Underneath 4 hours is just noise for me so whilst waking at 3am to press a button is justified for me.

 

What is a typical SL size (in pips) for you on 240m?

 

Cheers.

[wasp 10]

  JT1 said:

What is a typical SL size (in pips) for you on 240m?

 

Cheers.

 

On GBPJPY I use 60 pip catastrophe stop (incl spread) but normally, if SAR required, the reversal is 80% within 30/40 pips max.

[cowpip 10]

  wasp said:

I have a question for you as it goes cowpip.

 

You said the other day you would expect the pound to drop because of the economy.

 

That was only one of the reasons I thought it would drop. Price action also suggested to me a further drop.

 

  wasp said:

Makes sense in theory but, and this is why I don't trade using FA; the economy has been going downhill for months, all around the world, the knock on effect from the US is hitting both the UK and Japan so lets forget the USDJPY and EURJPY and GBPUSD correlation, hwo do you decipher what should happen in the GBPJPY pair with such conflicting FA?

 

Then to actually day trade that with sensible stops is something that really confuses me. Anyone who can use that despite the pound rising for the last 3 months gets me congratulations!

 

I read a lot, trying to understand exactly what kind of shape the economies of the world are in, but with a particular slant towards where interest rates are headed. I could care less about the drivel that analysts spout (such as the mindless automotons on CNBC). They know less about where currencies are headed than most and are probably actually better contrarian indicators.

 

For me, price action is king, and I'll trade what I see long before I will trade what I think. I've thought for some time now that the U.K. and U.S. economies are in the dumps - and far worse is likely to come. But I have no idea when that state will manifest itself in the markets, which is why I can't trade what I think.

 

But the fundamental slant I obtain does give me some basis to understand price action (at least longer-term price action) and it does help me anticipate major changes in interest rate policies. Yes, sometimes there is no correlation between price action and the fundamentals (as you have noted) - particularly for shorter-term swings, which is why price action always trumps fundamentals in my mind. Anyone who trades based solely off of the fundamentals is in for a sore surprise and a losing profit-to-loss graph.

 

In the end, price action doesn't lie. It's king. It's always been that way, and will always be that way. This is why I can completely understand how you can be on the winning side of your trades so often, even disregarding fundamentals. It's also why I am on the winning sides of trades more often than not. If my fundamental analysis weighed more heavily than price action, or if I allowed my fundamental analysis to unduly bias my price-action interpretation, I would see a hole rather than a profit. It's as simple as that, to me.

[cowpip 10]

  wasp said:

No problems at all. My ways are 20 years old and so simple even my sister could do it (which she does! - not very well though, bloody women traders! )...

 

I hope Tess or Anna-Maria don't hear this statement! :fight:

 

  wasp said:

Look at the chart and how much easier to read S/R is through bodies than wicks. All the wicks are good for is showing strength and weakness IMO. They help you decipher what's next and what those with money are doing.

 

Dude, that is one of the simplest, yet most profound statements of truth that I've encountered out there. Readers would do well to learn it well! I absolutely agree, 110%.

 

I like your style, Wasp. It's irreverantly cool and I can see value in applying some of your style in my own trading decisions.

 

This has been an enlightening discussion for me, and I thank you for it.

[cowpip 10]

  JT1 said:

Although I haven't done this, i was intimidated slightly by the idea of having to monitor multiple positions 6 times per day, 5 days per week off H4, in the middle of the night.

 

It's still easier than sitting through 10 hours of intraday crap, and you won't over-trade either (which is where most newbies get into trouble, and where most retail outlets get fat).

 

  JT1 said:

As i see it, i get up maybe twice a night for a sl*** anway, so what big a differnce does it really make having to switch the PC on.

 

Better yet, buy yourself a wireless laptop and keep it running beside your bed. Then you don't even have to get up. Your wife (or significant other) might bean you on the head for disturbing her sleep, but she'd probably bean you on the head anyway for getting up and disturbing her sleep, right?

 

I'm personally one who needs sleep, so I would have to let two of the 4-hour candles expire before I would be able to adjust positions. But usually, if you have the direction right, that won't make too much of a difference, imo.

[wasp 10]

  cowpip said:

......... buy yourself a wireless laptop and keep it running beside your bed. Then you don't even have to get up.

 

I'm personally one who needs sleep, so I would have to let two of the 4-hour candles expire before I would be able to adjust positions. But usually, if you have the direction right, that won't make too much of a difference, imo.

 

Sleep when you're dead!

 

I do have the laptop by the bed and it is just a case of yes or no then fall back to sleep (pretty much like daytime!) so not much hassle really.

[cowpip 10]

Alright Wasp... another question for you.

 

I've noticed from your real-time trades that you are more often than not, in the market. You're in until you see a reversal signal, then you reverse. That's a very efficient way to operate and is (again) an attractive attribute. However, I have noticed that once in a while, you will make use of a trailing stop.

 

What conditions qualify the use of trailing stops for you?

[wasp 10]

  cowpip said:

Alright Wasp... another question for you.

 

I've noticed from your real-time trades that you are more often than not, in the market. You're in until you see a reversal signal, then you reverse. That's a very efficient way to operate and is (again) an attractive attribute. However, I have noticed that once in a while, you will make use of a trailing stop.

 

What conditions qualify the use of trailing stops for you?

 

 

Yep, if I am doing things right I am in from Sunday night through till Friday night.

 

Everything happens for a reason and IMO, there is no reason why every pip can't be nabbed!

 

As for trailing stops... I may trail if for example, the 7pm (GMT) candle opens below my 212.20 S/R level, I will bring up the SL... possibly to break even or possibly more, its all discretionary. Otherwise, it all comes down to my requirements and/or if I have something better to do that day!

[cowpip 10]

Cool...

 

19 GMT... When does your platform open a new daily candle?

[wasp 10]

  cowpip said:

Cool...

 

19 GMT... When does your platform open a new daily candle?

 

In approx 13 minutes.