Trade Discussion and Analysis

[cowpip 10]

Quick question for you Wasp...

 

At the start of each new week, do you reset your trend-lines, or do you carry them forward from the previous week if there are obvious touches/bounces from them?

[wasp 10]

Quick question for you Wasp...

 

At the start of each new week, do you reset your trend-lines, or do you carry them forward from the previous week if there are obvious touches/bounces from them?

 

It continues and flows like the never ending tides of the sea and no weekend nor public holiday or worldwide disaster changes the ebb and flow of the smooth swings that make up the flow of gbpjpy.

 

I did screw it up at the opening of the week slightly but like the sig says... live. learn and adapt and the blog shows the ease of the flow.

 

Be like water making its way through cracks. Do not be assertive, but adjust to the object, and you shall find a way round or through it. If nothing within you stays rigid, outward things will disclose themselves. Empty your mind, be formless. Shapeless, like water. If you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup. You put water into a bottle and it becomes the bottle. You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now, water can flow or it can crash. Be water my friend.

 

 

Bruce Lee

[cowpip 10]

Alright, here's a question for you Wasp... it's a problem I regularly encounter, and I think it may be part of the reason why I am taking unnecessary losses at times. Let me know your thoughts, if you would?

 

Look at the image below... it contains two screen-captures. The left-side is the 1-hour frame and the right side is the 30-min frame.

 

If I were only looking at the 1-hour chart, I might have taken a long as the open of the hourly candle broke (or seemed to come very close) the trend-line down.

 

But if you look at the 30-min (or lower time-frame) chart, it's clear that the trend line hasn't broken.

 

So, in this case, do you take the 1-hour break, or do you zoom in to confirm that the TL has actually broken on the lower time-frames as well? I would imagine that you would confirm with the lower time-frames as well... but if true, is the 30-min low enough, or should the 15-min be consulted if necessary? The "how low can you go" question pops up into my head...

 

EDIT: I should note that on the hourly chart, the open of the last candle represents the point at which I might have taken a long. The screen-capture shows the candle after it formed a bit following the open of the candle. But on the 30-min, I wouldn't have given that it never broke there. So a minor conflict...

Edited October 21, 2008 by cowpip

[wasp 10]

I'll answer this later just as soon as you answer this........

 

Wheres the short term S/R?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?

 

This is daft without anything sub daily data!

[cowpip 10]

I'll answer this later just as soon as you answer this........

 

Wheres the short term S/R?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?

 

This is daft without anything sub daily data!

 

The short-term S/R data is plotted on the chart. The horizontal red lines?

[wasp 10]

No sorry, not on your chart, I mean now, now that we have dropped to new lows...!

[wasp 10]

I am taking time off now until we break back into previously trodden territory as I can not trade without the data that forms the basis of my methods........

 

Until we sit back above 163.25 region with a HrL I am out of here... I will answer your post in a bit though...

[cowpip 10]

Right! I'm hunting for new hourly data from other sources. If I find anything, you'll be the first to know.

 

Until then, if we intend to play this, we'll have to stick to the daily frame, I guess, huh? Yuck. It could take weeks for something there to set up the way this is starting to trend.

[wasp 10]

Alright, here's a question for you Wasp... it's a problem I regularly encounter, and I think it may be part of the reason why I am taking unnecessary losses at times. Let me know your thoughts, if you would?

 

Look at the image below... it contains two screen-captures. The left-side is the 1-hour frame and the right side is the 30-min frame.

 

If I were only looking at the 1-hour chart, I might have taken a long as the open of the hourly candle broke (or seemed to come very close) the trend-line down.

 

But if you look at the 30-min (or lower time-frame) chart, it's clear that the trend line hasn't broken.

 

So, in this case, do you take the 1-hour break, or do you zoom in to confirm that the TL has actually broken on the lower time-frames as well? I would imagine that you would confirm with the lower time-frames as well... but if true, is the 30-min low enough, or should the 15-min be consulted if necessary? The "how low can you go" question pops up into my head...

 

EDIT: I should note that on the hourly chart, the open of the last candle represents the point at which I might have taken a long. The screen-capture shows the candle after it formed a bit following the open of the candle. But on the 30-min, I wouldn't have given that it never broke there. So a minor conflict...

 

It looks like a simple case of doing it, taking the loss and then SAR'ing! Don't fight the plan, just have to take the shit and move on! It ain't perfect!

 

I know when SAR'ing it can be bitch but try to wait for price to retrace to the S/R before getting in?

 

I'll try and post a couple of screenshots of mine to explain better as I find it easier to annotate with metatrader.

[wasp 10]

So here we have a classic example of setups failing.

 

The downtrend is strong and obvious but wouldn't have made 1000 pips a week for the last 5/6 unless taking the setups and SAR'ing.

 

(I know firewalker will appear you see and show me a chart with obvious HrL and HrH and say 'oh why would you buy into this' but look at the past! boy!)

[wasp 10]

it sucks at times though!!!

[cowpip 10]

So here we have a classic example of setups failing.

 

The downtrend is strong and obvious but wouldn't have made 1000 pips a week for the last 5/6 unless taking the setups and SAR'ing.

 

Right. So you don't SAR when your stop-loss is hit. You are PATIENT (my arch-nemesis!!!) and wait until price pulls back on a future hourly candle where it touches the trend-line and is as close as reasonable to resistance.

 

That makes so much bloody sense!!!

 

I have such a thick head, sometimes.

 

Much appreciate your help, Wasp. Very much.

[wasp 10]

Yep, always err on the side of caution and wait for a pullback... Sods law occasionally it will go and go without you but what you gonna do! Can't have your cake and eat it too!

[wasp 10]

In fact, if it wasn't for the Mervyn incident, this would have been one of the best intraday = swing moves ever!

[cowpip 10]

Yep, always err on the side of caution and wait for a pullback... Sods law occasionally it will go and go without you but what you gonna do! Can't have your cake and eat it too!

 

That's one of the most frustrating aspects of Sod's law.

 

Can you explain in a wee bit more detail what you mean by "Confirmation = Too late" in your annotation?

 

Confirmation as in... you're expecting a pull-back to confirm the long, but that move failed entirely, so the need to short?

 

And one last question... on those pull-backs that you have noted that are valid for shorts, you would typically not enter short until the open of the new hourly candle? If price happened to run all the way up to that resistance line about 20 minutes into the new hour, would you take the short then, or would you only take it at the open of the new hour?

 

I've heard you say that you take trades within a minute or two of the open of a new candle - but I'm uncertain how rigid you are about that. It makes sense to me to take an entry anytime during the hour if it reaches a good buying level. But you're the master here... if you only take entries at the open, there must be a good reason.

 

This much I do know - the momentum can switch on a dime at the open of a new hour. What was bullish momentum during one hour can quickly (and oddly) become bearish momentum during the next hour. From what I understand, I think this is what you're relying on. One hour may be a pull-back - and that entire hour will be nothing but a pull-back. The following hour will test the resolve of that pull-back. It's true from the large to the small time-frames. It's freaky odd, but it's true. I suspect this is why you typically only trade at the open?

[cowpip 10]

In fact, if it wasn't for the Mervyn incident, this would have been one of the best intraday = swing moves ever!

 

That's for sure. It took me out, and ever since then, I haven't been able to re-enter - specifically because of my failure to SAR properly. I really do need to work on that.

[wasp 10]

That's for sure. It took me out, and ever since then, I haven't been able to re-enter - specifically because of my failure to SAR properly. I really do need to work on that.

 

You and me both... What should have been a great 24/36 hours have been terrible here too... I was having an absolutely blinding week with 900+ pips already!

[wasp 10]

That's one of the most frustrating aspects of Sod's law.

 

Can you explain in a wee bit more detail what you mean by "Confirmation = Too late" in your annotation?

 

Confirmation as in... you're expecting a pull-back to confirm the long, but that move failed entirely, so the need to short?

 

It actually means in this instance that by the time confirmed, it was too late as it opened above S/R. Thus waiting for the next rejection to make it resistance.

 

And one last question... on those pull-backs that you have noted that are valid for shorts, you would typically not enter short until the open of the new hourly candle? If price happened to run all the way up to that resistance line about 20 minutes into the new hour, would you take the short then, or would you only take it at the open of the new hour?

 

I've heard you say that you take trades within a minute or two of the open of a new candle - but I'm uncertain how rigid you are about that. It makes sense to me to take an entry anytime during the hour if it reaches a good buying level. But you're the master here... (:\ If I was that good I'd be in the Times rich list mate!) if you only take entries at the open, there must be a good reason.

 

I try my hardest to only take on the hour and I may wait a few minutes to see how it opens but otherwise its on the hour.... Its sometimes not the best thing to do but, need restraints to stop overtrading.

 

This much I do know - the momentum can switch on a dime at the open of a new hour. What was bullish momentum during one hour can quickly (and oddly) become bearish momentum during the next hour. From what I understand, I think this is what you're relying on. One hour may be a pull-back - and that entire hour will be nothing but a pull-back. The following hour will test the resolve of that pull-back. It's true from the large to the small time-frames. It's freaky odd, but it's true. I suspect this is why you typically only trade at the open?

 

My main reason for only trading at the open is to minimize overtrading but, I do think the banks pay attention to the open and close of each hour or 4hr. I know many will say the candle is representation over an ever flowing market but, those that move this with big money do have similar things on their computer screens and to dismiss the open as unimportant is unwise imo.

 

Also, the trend will change uncannily well 80% of the time at the open as shown in my blog week on week... I don't question why though and just try to maximize.

 

Now, excuse me but must google Merv Kings address so I can torch his house. The git!

[cowpip 10]

Now, excuse me but must google Merv Kings address so I can torch his house. The git!

 

ROFL!...

 

You torch it, and I'll kick the snot out him as he rolls out of the place.

 

Anyone with a silly name like that deserves a riot.

[cowpip 10]

(:\ If I was that good I'd be in the Times rich list mate!)

 

Dude... someone whose hoping for an 8-figure Christmas present SHOULD be on the Times rich list!

 

I'm afraid I'll have to be happy with a lump of coal. Santa's not going to like me very much after I get through with Merv-the-perv. :security:

[wasp 10]

'shooting for' and 'getting' are 2 very different things!

 

7/8 weeks yet........... :missy:

 

I'll just be happy with a really solid, consistent year of the plan. Teach a man to fish and all that..........

[cowpip 10]

'shooting for' and 'getting' are 2 very different things!

 

7/8 weeks yet........... :missy:

 

I'll just be happy with a really solid, consistent year of the plan. Teach a man to fish and all that..........

 

Amen to that.

[wasp 10]

Not sure what you guys are up to but not trading GJ personally atm and actually flipped over onto NOK instead till it levels off a bit.

 

Until it stops being a one way road I am standing aside......

[firewalker 10]

it's official

the market is dead!

 

check this out

 

did somebody pull the plugs??

[firewalker 10]

it's official

the market is dead!

 

check this out

 

did somebody pull the plugs??

 

looks like overnight limits are maximum 5%...

I thought circuit breakers only came into play after 10% but that's during the day