Trade Discussion and Analysis

[wasp 10]

Wasp,

 

Great thread, I'm enjoying it immensely. Thanks to you, Firewalker and Cowpip for your time and effort.

 

Question for Wasp:

 

Have you ever used this strategy with other charting packages? The reason I ask is Alpari is based on a different time zone than FXDD which is different than ProRealTime, which is different from Oanda. You get the picture. If so, can you say which ones(s) and which time zones(i.e. GMT, GMT+1, GMT-1, etc.,) did or didn't work out?

 

Thanks in advance.

 

Nope, never tried it.... Would be interesting to see how much it may differ but it works as is so I hall be content personally!

[cowpip 10]

Cheeky!

 

Well I was going to skip today but after missing out on a 150 trade off the bottom of yesterdays drop, I took a sneaky long today to make up for it!

 

Alright Wasp... what caused you to take the long at that particular location, rather than at the base of the other three trend-lines you had drawn?

 

I had a horrible night. Two more losses (rather big ones too). The 4-hour candles just weren't talking nice. It's way too whippy. My stop's, as large as they were, still were not large enough to get out of the way of the whips.

 

So, I ended up (don't laugh - too hard) a whopping +5 pips for the entire week.

 

Dude, that really REALLY sucks when I was up 300 mid-week. These last two days shot me dead.

 

BTW, Why did you take the entry you took, and not one of the other trend-line breaks? Somehow, you managed to pick the right one.

 

Congrats on your 700 pip week. That's one duzy of a good job! I can't tell you how badly I want to replicate your performance. I KNOW I can. But I'm still screwing something up somewhere.

 

EDIT: I still obviously have more study-time ahead of me this weekend.

[cowpip 10]

One more question before you hit the pubs... what size of stops were you using on this last play? Same as usual, or slightly larger?

[wasp 10]

Alright Wasp... what caused you to take the long at that particular location, rather than at the base of the other three trend-lines you had drawn?

 

BTW, Why did you take the entry you took, and not one of the other trend-line breaks? Somehow, you managed to pick the right one.

 

One more question before you hit the pubs... what size of stops were you using on this last play? Same as usual, or slightly larger?

 

I took that last one because that one tested the lower support line whilst the rest were still sat up at resistance. I used the normal stops etc and I actually got stopped out and that is why I re-entered much lower. It was against my plan but I just went with my gut through experience and that made me get in.

 

I had a horrible night. Two more losses (rather big ones too). The 4-hour candles just weren't talking nice. It's way too whippy. My stop's, as large as they were, still were not large enough to get out of the way of the whips.

 

So, I ended up (don't laugh - too hard) a whopping +5 pips for the entire week.

 

Dude, that really REALLY sucks when I was up 300 mid-week. These last two days shot me dead.

 

Ouch! Look at the S/R on my chart... the fact that it was only sitting under R and not near S should have made you see that only a short was valid and also, after a big movement like that you should expect some whippy moves, especially pre-NFP. That comes from experience and screen time though so will become more obvious the longer you trade.

 

Congrats on your 700 pip week. That's one duzy of a good job! I can't tell you how badly I want to replicate your performance. I KNOW I can. But I'm still screwing something up somewhere.

 

EDIT: I still obviously have more study-time ahead of me this weekend.

 

Thanks and don't try and copy me, find your own way... you know it makes sense! It turns out I trade very much like Wyckoff. I have never read anything (knowingly) by Wyckoff yet our styles are similar. Had I read Wyckoff and tried to copy him, I doubt I would be as succesful, its the trial and error that has got me where I am.

 

I still have more studdy to do myself as I could have done better but don't despair, with enough time scrutinzing the market, you will get there.

 

Have a good weekend!

[wasp 10]

oh my god!

 

Not looked at any others but hows this for indicative opening prices on GBPJPY!

 

 

(Source: Alpari / dow jones newswire)

[pipMonster 10]

It's up to 193.85/4.05 on Oanda as I write this.

 

Can we safely assume the retrace is on? :o

[wasp 10]

Bastards though... Could have waited for the open for us to join them!

[pipMonster 10]

It's the largest 'gap' over a weekend that I can remember.

 

Wasp, do you have any good real time forex news sources on the web? The Reuters FXHub recently shut down(which I felt was one of the best outlets) and nothing else seems to come close.

 

Thanks in advance.

[wasp 10]

It's the largest 'gap' over a weekend that I can remember.

 

Wasp, do you have any good real time forex news sources on the web? The Reuters FXHub recently shut down(which I felt was one of the best outlets) and nothing else seems to come close.

 

Thanks in advance.

 

Yep, largest I've seen too!

 

I have a live account with Alpari for trying things out on and secondary charts with no downtime and they offer dow jones newswire for free. I don't generally pay that much attention to the news though (over than a general overview - Alistair Dariling last weekend, Fannie and Freddie this weekend et...)

 

They are pretty good though... Fast with figures and announcements and overall news. You can open an account with Alpari with just a tenner, never trade but just their facilities as it were.

[cowpip 10]

I'm carrying this response over here from the Live trade thread... I'm learning, Wasp!

 

It's up to 193.85/4.05 on Oanda as I write this.

 

Can we safely assume the retrace is on? :o

 

I'm putting on my fundamental hat for a moment here folks.

 

Yes, the US government have bailed out fannie and freddie. BUT, a good number of banks (I don't know how many - but undoubtably there are quite a few, as the FDIC had to issue a statement to help "guide" them) have some good chunks of cash in those companies and are liable to lose it over the next week. The FDIC wouldn't have issued their brief statement about regional banks needing to consult with their larger brethren to help resolve capital requirements issues (if fan/fred lose their share value).

 

No one is going to want to invest in these companies when the government plans on SCALING BACK business activities during the next 18 months, or when their dividends are getting discontinued. Also, who is going to want to invest in a company when the share holders will have no say in the governance of the company? If anyone does buy shares, they'll be very very brief purchases. Once the world realizes there is no VALUE in holding shares, their shares will probably vanish. And as share prices drop in value, the losses of the banks holding those shares will increase. But I honestly don't know if any wise banks would wait that long. They may dump them on Monday and preserve whatever value is left in their shares. Someone this weekend said, "Once the government bailouts fail to produce a meaningful rally in the stock markets, that's when you'll see a crash." We may be closer to that moment now.

 

At any rate, this gap higher could easily be a trap. I'm holding fire at least until that first 4-hour candle finishes forming. Who knows what shape it will take?

 

Fundamentals aside, all we really need to worry about is what price is doing NOW. Everything else is secondary. Yes, that was a pretty amazing gap higher. It may get filled later. It may not. I don't really care, as long as price tells me which way it's going to move and I'm in on it.

[wasp 10]

My fault sorry, should have posted in here! Done and reply coming separate.

[wasp 10]

I'm carrying this response over here from the Live trade thread... I'm learning, Wasp!

 

I'm putting on my fundamental hat for a moment here folks.

 

Yes, the US government have bailed out fannie and freddie. BUT, a good number of banks (I don't know how many - but undoubtably there are quite a few, as the FDIC had to issue a statement to help "guide" them) have some good chunks of cash in those companies and are liable to lose it over the next week. The FDIC wouldn't have issued their brief statement about regional banks needing to consult with their larger brethren to help resolve capital requirements issues (if fan/fred lose their share value).

 

No one is going to want to invest in these companies when the government plans on SCALING BACK business activities during the next 18 months, or when their dividends are getting discontinued. Also, who is going to want to invest in a company when the share holders will have no say in the governance of the company? If anyone does buy shares, they'll be very very brief purchases. Once the world realizes there is no VALUE in holding shares, their shares will probably vanish. And as share prices drop in value, the losses of the banks holding those shares will increase. But I honestly don't know if any wise banks would wait that long. They may dump them on Monday and preserve whatever value is left in their shares. Someone this weekend said, "Once the government bailouts fail to produce a meaningful rally in the stock markets, that's when you'll see a crash." We may be closer to that moment now.

 

I'm no fan of fundamentals as, whilst I agree with you, who knows what those with money are really thinking. See, with a chart, you can say, statistically, support breaking then price failing to re-breach it means it will then go down further, simple as... but, and this is why I don't use it, as gammajammer once posted on T2W, just because (for example), NFP comes in higher than last month, the figure alone is so inconsequential as there are a hundred factors and hundred other roll on effects that the bank guys could be thinking something entirely different overall... Just to unpredictable.

 

At any rate, this gap higher could easily be a trap. I'm holding fire at least until that first 4-hour candle finishes forming. Who knows what shape it will take?

 

Forget the gap... it means NOTHING. Whoever said 'all gaps must be filled' is taking the piss... All gaps WILL be filled, eventually, of course they will but to factor the gap into a trade other than S/R en-route is as mad as those with 4 indicators on a chart! IMO of course!

 

Fundamentals aside, all we really need to worry about is what price is doing NOW. Everything else is secondary. Yes, that was a pretty amazing gap higher. It may get filled later. It may not. I don't really care, as long as price tells me which way it's going to move and I'm in on it.

 

That's my thinking... Right here, right now.... S/R and trends, same old, same old... Always governs it and whether volatile or dead, the only thing that changes is the end of week pip count.... The reasons always stay the same.....

 

I am sitting aside personally till I get a S/R and trnedline break and confirmation as its all too hectic for my liking right now... wait for the dust to settle.

 

I would go long into the rest of this move till the down turn normally off this hourly candle as it is sat on S/R but going to wait.... As firewalker keeps reminding me, 'flat, is a position'!

[cowpip 10]

Righto... bang on, Wasp - on all counts.

[wasp 10]

Well it just goes to show ay, if you keep going long enough, the big moves counter the small ones and come the end of the year, it always averages out nicely....

 

Of course its not always easy to not think about your account balance / pip count till the year end but still, nie to ee the life come back into the markets.

[erierambler 10]

Firewalker,

Would you mark on this chart your trend, reversal , and retracement? I know it is after the fact , but i'm curious. Notice there is no after hour bars here. This may solve some of your question.

erie

 

[firewalker 10]

Firewalker,

Would you mark on this chart your trend, reversal , and retracement? I know it is after the fact , but i'm curious. Notice there is no after hour bars here. This may solve some of your question.

erie

 

I've only looked at your chart, and not included anything that came before. So my interpretation is strictly based on this snapshot, although otherwise I'd always look to the left of my charts to see where previously potential S/R levels lie.

 

There are obviously more retracements and more trends on your chart than I've annotated, so I only included what I thought was important enough to mention.

 

[erierambler 10]

Ok , FW, thanks. Simply put I looked at it like this........look for "r" at zone of reversal and then take it from there. Does that help?

erie

 

 

[firewalker 10]

Ok , FW, thanks. Simply put I looked at it like this........look for "r" at zone of reversal and then take it from there. Does that help?

erie

 

Thanks erie, I take it you see price action as a reversal because it breaks the last swing low. But before that it made a higher high, so I'm not confident the trend has reversed. Depending on the importance of that 1900 level, I'd even consider everything up to the 21st as a retracement.

 

When price bounces of 1900 and reacts up to almost 1950, I have a trend continuation signal.

 

Now if you consider that reversal to be R, I take it this is how you see things?

 

[erierambler 10]

Now if you consider that reversal to be R, I take it this is how you see things?

 

Yes. That sums it up. It is what you see that counts though.

[firewalker 10]

Yes. That sums it up. It is what you see that counts though.

 

It's easy to say in hindsight, but if I looked upon things that way, then yes I probably would've been on the right side of a trade more than not.

 

As we're talking about the summer months, how do you view July? It's one big range where I would not feel comfortable trading from anything in the middle tbh...

[erierambler 10]

It's easy to say in hindsight, but if I looked upon things that way, then yes I probably would've been on the right side of a trade more than not.

 

As we're talking about the summer months, how do you view July? It's one big range where I would not feel comfortable trading from anything in the middle tbh...

 

Forget about the summer months, your question was about finding proper s/r and i answered ,"if you were having problems you were missing something". That it is obvious to me , it is not apparent to you and you also have not obviously learned anything here. Soooo...

I leave this with you to contemplate and good trading to you.........

 

erie

[cowpip 10]

That it is obvious to me , it is not apparent to you and you also have not obviously learned anything here. Soooo...

I leave this with you to contemplate and good trading to you.........

 

Oh, come now. That's a little harsh. There is no absolute "right" or "wrong" here. Your method, Erie, may be perfectly sound - but WILL still fail at times. Firewalker's view may also be perfectly sound, but WILL also fail at times.

 

Attaching a requirement that firewalker needs to learn something from your example is irrelevant here, since there are undoubtably numerous examples where he could say the same thing of you.

 

Everyone sees things differently. Let's all respect that.

[firewalker 10]

Forget about the summer months, your question was about finding proper s/r and i answered ,"if you were having problems you were missing something". That it is obvious to me , it is not apparent to you and you also have not obviously learned anything here. Soooo...

I leave this with you to contemplate and good trading to you.........

 

erie

 

To be honest, I learned that you and me might have different approaches, but that doesn't change the fact that my only issues were with the summer doldrums...

 

Finding proper S/R has worked fine (I'd say near perfect) for the last 7 days, and strangely enough I have not changed my approach in any way.

 

I respect your differences, but (thanks cowpip) if that's a reason to end this discussion then I feel sorry. After all, a market exists because of people with different opinions. If everybody would be thinking the same, you wouldn't be making money either...

[wasp 10]

Well my view is completely different. That makes a market!

 

 

 

 

(and lets face it, I'm bloody brilliant too!)

[cowpip 10]

Wasp, when you get a chance, I'd appreciate some clarity on the following chart.

 

I've circled an area where price on the hourly has gyrated. According to your trend-line drawing rules, we need to see a higher high and a higher low before we can "connect the dots." In the case circled, would you refrain from connecting the high to the open of the largest right-side red bar because the "pull-back" didn't technically create a higher high and a higher low?

 

I personally would be inclined to draw the trend-line - it just seems to fit. But I'm curious how you would handle it?

 

Thanks.

 

PS: It's a 30 minute chart, not an hourly like I said... but let's pretend it was an hourly chart, ok?