Trade Discussion and Analysis

[wasp 10]

I'd just like to emphasize to everyone watching my learning curve here about something...

 

If I would have stuck strictly to the 4-hour plan (and disregard even trend-lines), I would have nabbed most of this 400 pip day. What I did today was a cardinal sin, yet I often find myself repeatedly violating it. I got lazy and decided I was smarter than the market. I AM NOT SMARTER THAN THE MARKET. No one is.

 

What I needed to do was wait for price to test, reject and close above one of the S/R lines before taking my long. But I decided in my very small mind that price would be rejected at 190 - partly because of the size of the bounce that we saw the first time it visited there. You can't assume anything!!! You have to wait for the market to tell you the truth. If you do anything earlier, you've dulled your edge to the point that you couldn't cut through a cake with it and you've unduly increased your risk.

 

My losses today were entirely deserved! Break the rules, pay the price. It's as simple as that.

 

Don't break the rules, people. And if you don't have any, FIND SOME quick! Write them down, memorize them, dream about them, rehearse them to yourself in the mirror, or whatever it takes to prevent yourself from breaking them. It's easier said than done when you're sitting at the computer watching price action. But if you don't heed it, you pay it.

 

 

I think this is vital to remember..........

 

You can't assume anything!!!

 

Whilst I have been getting pissed off with fast and sharp reversals, I think it is vital to have more confirmation of an imminent reversal. My trendlines fit me and for firewalker uses price action and candles and Wyckoff-ism's(!) but you need something that fits you, that you can trust and adhere too...

[firewalker 10]

My point being the support level in question prior that rally was broken so yes, whilst crossing back through meant it was due to rally, to say it turned and continued up because of support is a bit of a long shot. Coincidence even.

 

Hmm, I'm going to have to disagree here

 

I think what happens is that smart money/professional money/banks/whatever you prefer/ wants to acquire some. These transactions take place near important levels. What happens in this case is that price drops, on apparent lack of interest from these players. But these players are waiting for a slightly better price.

 

In fact, on that down bar the buying occurred. You can see that because on the next couple of bars price fails to fall. As you would probably tell me: support is not a line, but a zone. In this case price found support slightly lower, so I do believe it's not a coincidence.

 

All imhBo(*)!

 

(*) in my humble Belgian opinion

[firewalker 10]

Just as long as you leave that American muck where it is! :rofl:

 

That can be arranged.

 

Btw, the title of this thread is no longer appropriate! I think we should move it all over to Trade & Chart Analysis.

 

We are just very serious guys. We only analyse and talk serious stuff... And to think you were trying to start a thread about 'boredom'.

[wasp 10]

That can be arranged.

 

Btw, the title of this thread is no longer appropriate! I think we should move it all over to Trade & Chart Analysis.

 

We are just very serious guys. We only analyse and talk serious stuff... And to think you were trying to start a thread about 'boredom'.

 

Done.............

[wasp 10]

Hmm, I'm going to have to disagree here

 

I think what happens is that smart money/professional money/banks/whatever you prefer/ wants to acquire some. These transactions take place near important levels. What happens in this case is that price drops, on apparent lack of interest from these players. But these players are waiting for a slightly better price.

 

In fact, on that down bar the buying occurred. You can see that because on the next couple of bars price fails to fall. As you would probably tell me: support is not a line, but a zone. In this case price found support slightly lower, so I do believe it's not a coincidence.

 

All imhBo(*)!

 

(*) in my humble Belgian opinion

 

See chart.

[wasp 10]

Thoughts on this, I am genuinely curious and others would be too, I'll do mine too..........

 

2 similar candle actions (finished) but what next........

[firewalker 10]

Why did you just go long other than the fact that you weren't already short and worried it was too late to go short so best go long rather than sit there missing out?

 

This one is worth framing!

I need more than both hands to count the times I took trades in the past for the reasons you state above...

[firewalker 10]

See chart.

 

Trust me, I know exactly what you're talking about!

That's the difficulty with trying to identify support with a line imo...

 

Btw, I don't consider each swing to act as S/R...

[firewalker 10]

Thoughts on this, I am genuinely curious and others would be too, I'll do mine too..........

 

2 similar candle actions (finished) but what next........

 

You're giving away very very little information about that.

It's a close up and we don't know where those line come from, and what exactly happened before. I think there's not enough context to have a good 'what next' here...

 

If I was forced to say something it would be that price looks weaker in the left hand chart.

[wasp 10]

You're giving away very very little information about that.

It's a close up and we don't know where those line come from, and what exactly happened before. I think there's not enough context to have a good 'what next' here...

 

If I was forced to say something it would be that price looks weaker in the left hand chart.

 

tough! Not doing another! Interesting comment though, and correct... why do you say that?

[firewalker 10]

tough! Not doing another! Interesting comment though, and correct... why do you say that?

 

My sixth sense! It's a bit intuitive if you ask me...

 

Otoh if you rationalize it: on the right hand chart you see more information and we have a swing that manages to show some balls. While in the left chart any attempt to move higher is immediately rejected on the demand dries up very quickly.

 

Tough but good exercises imo. :thumbs up:

I'll try to look up some charts over the weekend.

[wasp 10]

My sixth sense! It's a bit intuitive if you ask me...

 

Otoh if you rationalize it: on the right hand chart you see more information and we have a swing that manages to show some balls. While in the left chart any attempt to move higher is immediately rejected on the demand dries up very quickly.

 

Tough but good exercises imo. :thumbs up:

I'll try to look up some charts over the weekend.

 

Cool... they both look exactly the same to me!

[firewalker 10]

Cool... they both look exactly the same to me!

 

Here's some more homework I did!

 

 

I think the day I don't enjoy doing this anymore, I should quit trading.

[wasp 10]

I think the day I don't enjoy doing this anymore, I should quit trading.

 

I just need a break I think as, without trying to sound too up my own arse, trading the way I do now, it doesn't require a great deal of thought and well, its a bit easy (as long as it moves...!)

[wasp 10]

Well bugger me! there ain't no stopping the FX markets today!

Edited September 4, 2008 by wasp
Spanish inquisition anyone?

[wasp 10]

FYI cowpip... just for you to look at and have a think how you can look at your trading and get some more definition in your plan.

[cowpip 10]

Wasp, I much appreciate that! Thanks. I'm digging through your other trend-charts to try and understand your methodology. It's starting to make a great deal of sense to me now.

 

Two quick questions: Is that an hourly frame chart (that's what you usually use for the trend-lines, is it not? - ok, that's three questions)? And what do the "+++"'s mean? I've never seen those before, that I can recall, on your annotated charts.

 

Thanks again. This is one cool set of strats you have.

[wasp 10]

The S/R comes from the 24om charts.

 

I then drop down to the 60m charts for the trendlines.

 

The +++ are optional 'add to position' points for compounding. (points where price pulls back to S or R before continuation)

 

HTH

[pipMonster 10]

Wasp,

 

Great thread, I'm enjoying it immensely. Thanks to you, Firewalker and Cowpip for your time and effort.

 

Question for Wasp:

 

Have you ever used this strategy with other charting packages? The reason I ask is Alpari is based on a different time zone than FXDD which is different than ProRealTime, which is different from Oanda. You get the picture. If so, can you say which ones(s) and which time zones(i.e. GMT, GMT+1, GMT-1, etc.,) did or didn't work out?

 

Thanks in advance.

[brownsfan019 17]

Nice thread guys, good conversation here. There's some similar thread in the the candlestick corner with finding s/r using reaction levels.

[brownsfan019 17]

I think the day I don't enjoy doing this anymore, I should quit trading.

 

That's actually an interesting comment FW. I've thought about that too, but to be honest, I think I will always trade while it makes me money. If I am making a good living from trading, I plan to continue to do it (hopefully a long time) EVEN IF it becomes a job.

 

Why?

 

Nothing else can pay me as well for so little work.

 

[cowpip 10]

Nothing else can pay me as well for so little work.

 

That's funny... I've been doing this for several years now and honestly - to me anyway - this is the hardest bloody "job" I have ever had. It's also the most psychologically demanding "job" I've ever had. If it wasn't for the rewards, I would definitely choose to be doing something else.

 

I think a lot of people think trading is easy. Well - it can be. And once you have your strat(s) nailed down, it can become that way. But I'll bet if you ask Wasp if the last 3 weeks has been easy, he'd probably say not. He's put a lot of hours into researching why things haven't been working as well as he'd like and how he can make things work reliably. It's hard work a lot of the time, I think.

 

But I know what you're driving at, brownsfan... it's a totally different thing to be sitting in your own home (or on a trading desk) making cash grow from a computer screen than it is to be working elsewhere out on the street. Completely different. And the freedom is irreplaceable.

[brownsfan019 17]

That's funny... I've been doing this for several years now and honestly - to me anyway - this is the hardest bloody "job" I have ever had. It's also the most psychologically demanding "job" I've ever had. If it wasn't for the rewards, I would definitely choose to be doing something else.

 

I think a lot of people think trading is easy. Well - it can be. And once you have your strat(s) nailed down, it can become that way. But I'll bet if you ask Wasp if the last 3 weeks has been easy, he'd probably say not. He's put a lot of hours into researching why things haven't been working as well as he'd like and how he can make things work reliably. It's hard work a lot of the time, I think.

 

But I know what you're driving at, brownsfan... it's a totally different thing to be sitting in your own home (or on a trading desk) making cash grow from a computer screen than it is to be working elsewhere out on the street. Completely different. And the freedom is irreplaceable.

 

For sure. If trading did not pay as well as it does, there's no way I'd be here doing this. It is hard work and it is struggle at times, but if you do have that 'edge' or system that can make regular profits, it is hard to beat.

 

I've actually begun to limit the amount of hours I spend per day trading for a number of reasons, but not withstanding, it is very difficult to do this day in and day out, open to close. That is very difficult.

 

If I get some time Fri, I will get a thread up about this subject.

[firewalker 10]

That's actually an interesting comment FW. I've thought about that too, but to be honest, I think I will always trade while it makes me money. If I am making a good living from trading, I plan to continue to do it (hopefully a long time) EVEN IF it becomes a job.

 

Why?

 

Nothing else can pay me as well for so little work.

 

 

I understand your point, but if you really don't like doing it anymore...

I had a safe job, high salary, lots of days off and the work wasn't that hard. I'd even say they were very little jobs that would pay that "well for so little work". Yet I didn't enjoy doing it, and felt demotivated and ultimately quit, despite all the advantages. I think it's important to do something that you enjoy doing.

 

But obviously the potential rewards in trading are on a different scale than those of a 9 to 5 job...

[wasp 10]

But I'll bet if you ask Wasp if the last 3 weeks has been easy, he'd probably say not. He's put a lot of hours into researching why things haven't been working as well as he'd like and how he can make things work reliably. It's hard work a lot of the time, I think..... And the freedom is irreplaceable.

 

Not wrong there....... My style is so simple its shocking yet, I still spend as much time getting stressed out etc... Take this week.... Up until yesterday, I was ready to take the week off with all my good moves retracing 50% on me, the ranges being small and the moves too... I was beginning to think that times had changed as the last 2 weeks had been poor then bang, 600 pip drop... I have put in more hours than I care to remember and I still don't just login, do my thing and log out.... Keeping the faith is hard work through the tought times but then if it was that easy, it wouldn't be as lucrative.

 

Sure, in theory, it should be simple as.... but times do change and you need to be constantly aware of that which is where the harder work comes in I think.

 

 

For sure. If trading did not pay as well as it does, there's no way I'd be here doing this. It is hard work and it is struggle at times, but if you do have that 'edge' or system that can make regular profits, it is hard to beat.

 

I've actually begun to limit the amount of hours I spend per day trading for a number of reasons, but not withstanding, it is very difficult to do this day in and day out, open to close. That is very difficult.

 

It is hard to beat when you have it down but the long hours and homework oes get taxing but I wouldnt do anything else.

 

I understand your point, but if you really don't like doing it anymore... .

 

Yes and no.... I love the challenge and I would never do another job for the money, anything I do in life is because I love it and my uni course into oceanography and marine biogeology next year is for a 'career' under the ocean, but not for money!

 

Trading is a means to money but you do have to enjoy it... and for someone who trades 24/5, I just need a break personally... Taking over Warren's #1 slot may take a year or 2 longer than hoped!!