Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

firewalker

Trade Discussion and Analysis

Recommended Posts

Yep. But the 4-hour gave a good signal, which you appear to have rode higher.

 

EDIT: Or was it the trend lines that prompted you to go long?

 

Yes well.... the reversal took place after a fake drop and whilst the 4hr now says short, the trendline additions have been vital to enrich and increase previous periods thricefold on average and thus, a singular rejection of the 4 hour S/R is not enough. I took an equal position on USDNOK based on exactly this previous expectation and that has failed for the exact same reasons.

 

To trade purely off the one signal and assuming support will equal resistance at every turn is not enough and despite this being in a current downtrend, what good is it if when the market trades sideways or any other condition. A discipline based on only market condition is not enough as as soon as the conditions change, you are ruined.

 

The dual combination is vital and only the rejection of S/R and the trendline coupled with the crossover of said lines put me in this long position and only will both of those happening again, change my mind on direction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

cowpip: I notice your stop-losses on GJ seem to be around the 60-pip mark.

how do you decide the size of stop-loss? is it derived from ATR? or swing-high/lows?

thanks

 

PS: good stuff posting your trades, esp as you seem to be trading around the clock, judging by tour late-night and very early morning posts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
cowpip: I notice your stop-losses on GJ seem to be around the 60-pip mark.

how do you decide the size of stop-loss? is it derived from ATR? or swing-high/lows?

thanks

 

You should really be asking Wasp, as I'm just mimicking his strat the best I can.

 

Wasp found (and I agree) that 60ish stop-losses generally keep your stop safe, unless you have the direction all wrong. It has nothing to do with atr, although I personally like to get my stop above swing highs/lows, if I can. And if I can get it above the swing highs/lows and above the next SR, even better.

 

Yeah, I trade 24/5 now... just wake up for 5 or so mins every 4 hours. It pays dividends, if you have the luxury of sleeping a little more when you need it (and don't have to go to a j.o.b.).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Merely a statistical edge/amount reached through tried, measured and tested analysis of my entry criteria, and P:L thereafter once tested at variables for size, leverage, movement, 24hr trading and economic releases.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
But seriously....... I don't want much... Just S to return to R then maybe break and the next to become S and break up through both to a previous S turned R etc, so on and so forth.... All neatly packaged with trendlines to stop me taking reversals I shouldn't but not turning to quick so I miss out...

 

Just that, each for +100 a time and it can trend up, down or backwards for all I care as long as the above works!

 

There...... like that.... S to R to S to R with trendline confirmation.......

 

IT can do it occasionally!

5aa70e818f70c_welldone.thumb.gif.3ac146d6d56682bfae9bcdcdc1db2587.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There...... like that.... S to R to S to R with trendline confirmation.......

 

IT can do it occasionally!

 

Beautiful Wasp... wish I would have been thinking straight. Grrr...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well Firewalker... I tip my hat to you. Looks like you may be right about this 190 area after all.

 

Not bad for someone who's not really trading that instrument eh :groove:

 

Is that 190 exactly?? :shocked:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=7725&stc=1&d=1220545261

gbpjpy_190.thumb.gif.ddd3238c4adeb29582e4aa528c02478f.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What can I say? Perhaps I should be trading this instrument and see if I can get more pips than you :haha:

 

So err, how was your ROI for the months of July and August? ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All three are imminent, ie, 1 candle away from reversing or continuing......

 

You are already in them all. What are you doing?

 

Exit and wait, stay in and see, reverse now?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So the big question now is, is THIS the reversal we've all been waiting for on GJ?

 

Yeah, I know it's unanswerable. But if it doesn't reverse here, it may be some time before we see the likes of 197 again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So the big question now is, is THIS the reversal we've all been waiting for on GJ?

 

Yeah, I know it's unanswerable. But if it doesn't reverse here, it may be some time before we see the likes of 197 again.

 

Concentrate on the day to day and be ready for anything and that possible reversal. I will continue as is (bounce to S to R to S etc...) and not worry about the big reversal, its not relevant to day/swing traders imo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Closed it for +260 to add to my +240 already and I am done, pre NFP (Not a big fan of NFP) and its been a stressful, annoying week so I am outta here.......

 

Have a good one all.......

 

Congrats Wasp. That last one pulled you through nicely. I'm ticked I missed it, but oh well... there's more fish in the sea.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This thread is to remove the risk/temptation to over trade through boredom...

 

It will be various charts from various markets for analysis (per Barjons WOT threads) so when you have itchy fingers, analyse and predict these instead!

 

Starting it off, we have 3 FX charts...

 

Firewalker believes reversals only happen at S/R whereas I know FX is a bitch and it can happen when you least expect it so, a simple 1=, 2=, 3= and answer stay in or reversal....

 

All can play and we'll jump around from FX to Indices to stocks etc, with volume and without..

 

Don't get me wrong... I think reversals that happen 'out of the blue' have less chance of being a 'true' reversal.

 

Knowing when a news release comes out is important when analysing these charts. I mean, if for some reason we see a huge bar on very wide spread that, for no apparent reason and not around an S/R level, suddenly makes a U-turn, then I would suspect this happens because of an economic release.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
All three are imminent, ie, 1 candle away from reversing or continuing......

 

You are already in them all. What are you doing?

 

Exit and wait, stay in and see, reverse now?

 

I see you started a new thread, so I think it's best I reply over there...

don't want to disrupt the flow of your losing trades in this thread :stick out tongue:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So....... Each chart is 1 candle from either reversing or continuing and you said to me, major reversals only happen at S/R........

 

Come on... which way for each?!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • AMZN Amazon stock, nice buying at the 187.26 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
    • MCK Mckesson stock, nice trend and continuation breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?MCK
    • lmfx just officially launched their own LMGX token, Im planning to grab a couple of hundred and maybe have the option to stake them. 
    • Date: 2nd April 2025.   Market on Edge: Tariff Announcement and Volatility Ahead!   The US economic and employment data continues to deteriorate with the job vacancies figures dropping to a 5-month low. In addition to this, the IMS Manufacturing PMI also fell below expectations. However, both the US Dollar and Gold declined simultaneously following the release of the two figures, an uncommon occurrence in the market. Traders expect a key factor to be today’s ‘liberation day’ where the US will impose tariffs on imports. USDJPY - Traders Await Tariff Confirmation! Traders looking to determine how the USDJPY will look today will find it difficult to determine until the US confirms its tariff plan. Today is the day when Trump previously stated he would finalize and announce his tariff plan. The administration has not yet released the policy, but investors expect it to be the most expansionary in a century. President Trump is due to speak at 20:00 GMT. On HFM's Calendar the speech is stated as "US Liberation Day Tariff Announcement". Currently, analysts are expecting Trump’s Tariff Plan to impose tariffs on the EU, chips and pharmaceuticals later today as well as reciprocal tariffs. Economists have a good idea of how these tariffs may take effect, but reciprocal tariffs are still unspecified. In addition to this, 25% tariffs on the car industry will start tomorrow. The tariffs on the foreign cars industry are a factor which will particularly impact Japan. Although, traders should note that this is what is expected and is not yet finalised. Last week, President Trump stated that he would implement retaliatory tariffs but allow exemptions for certain US trade partners. Treasury Secretary Mr Bessent and National Economic Council Director Mr Hassett suggested that the restrictions would primarily target 15 countries responsible for the bulk of the US trade deficit. However, yesterday, Trump contradicted these statements, asserting that additional duties would be imposed on any country that has implemented similar measures against US products. The day’s volatility will depend on which route the US administration takes. The harshness of the policy will influence both the Japanese Yen as well as the US Dollar.   USDJPY 5-Minute Chart   US Economic and Employment Data The JOLT Job Vacancies figure fell below expectations and is lower than the previous month’s figure. The JOLT Job Vacancies read 7.57 million whereas the average of the past 6 months is 7.78 million. The ISM Manufacturing Index also fell below the key level of 50.00 and was 5 points lower than what analysts were expecting. The data is negative for the US Dollar, particularly as the latest release applies more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, this is unlikely to happen if the trade policy ignites higher and stickier inflation. In the Bank of Japan’s Governor's latest speech, Mr Ueda said that the tariffs are likely to trigger higher inflation. USDJPY Technical Analysis Currently, the Japanese Yen Index is the worst performing of the day while the US Dollar Index is more or less unchanged. However, this is something traders will continue to monitor as the EU session starts. In the 2-hour timeframe, the USDJPY is trading at the neutral level below the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. The RSI and MACD is also at the neutral level meaning traders should be open to price movements in either direction. On the smaller timeframes, such as the 5-minute timeframe, there is a slight bias towards a bullish outcome. However, this is only likely if the latest bearish swing does not drop below the 200-Bar SMA.     The key resistant level can be seen at 150.262 and the support level at 149.115. Breakout levels are at 149.988 and 149.674. Key Takeaway Points: Job vacancies hit a five-month low, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions. Traders await confirmation on Trump’s tariff policy, which is expected to impact the EU, chips, pharmaceuticals, and foreign car industries. The severity of the tariffs will influence both the JPY and the USD, with traders waiting for final policy details. The Japanese Yen Index is the worst index of the day while the US Dollar Index is unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.