Trade Discussion and Analysis

[wasp 10]

Hi wasp

 

with the H4 chart you are discretionaryily trading with, how long (mins/hours) per h4 candle are you finding you are screen-watching for?

 

How long is a piece of string mate?

 

Also, with your continuous horizontal lines, its difficult-impossible to see where they start from. Have you thought of marking the start point in some way, every time you add a new one?

 

Cheers.

 

Why would I do that? I know where they start from

[cowpip 10]

Also, with your continuous horizontal lines, its difficult-impossible to see where they start from. Have you thought of marking the start point in some way, every time you add a new one?

 

 

Where they start is of little importance. Many of them react as far back as my platform has data. The fact that they exist is enough reason to use them.

[cowpip 10]

Wasp, do you pay any attention at all to major pairs containing the cross pairs you're trading? For example, GJ... do you have S/R lines set up and watched on $/yen or GBP/$ ? Or is everything you need to know or care about contained within GJ alone?

[wasp 10]

Wasp, do you pay any attention at all to major pairs containing the cross pairs you're trading? For example, GJ... do you have S/R lines set up and watched on $/yen or GBP/$ ? Or is everything you need to know or care about contained within GJ alone?

 

Purely GJ alone. The correlation is not close enough in the others.

[JT1 10]

I've had a go at what i think wasp is looking out for with the S/R, but on the daily GJ chart, with one trade max. per day/candle.

 

 

I've added S/R lines where price reacted back to about 1992.

 

 

Entries are based on a rejection of/reaction from an S/R line.

 

Entries are also based on if the open was closer to the line above or the line below.

 

 

The candles with magenta arrows only, represent entries that should/could have made profit.

 

The candles with crosses and RED arrows represent taken trades that i think would have resulted in a loss. The arrow shows the direction that the trade was in.

 

The trade entry arrows are placed as close as possible to the S/R line used to determine the entry.

 

 

Some trades go into a decent profit, then back to zero on a later candle, but what can you do, without a trailing SL.

 

 

The chart is fairly busy with 36 trades in 5.5 months. Maybe a few too many trades?

 

 

I hope its not too confusing!

 

 

What do you guys think of this. Am i getting the right sort of idea?

 

Cheers.

[wasp 10]

You're probably wise. The hourlies suggest this may bust lower... but it's been saying that for 3 hours now.

 

I want to use 40 pip stops maximum now which means waiting for a better price. I've had 175 this week and given back 120 in stops which is just stupid in these conditions!

[wasp 10]

You and me both. One of my rules for a reversal is a rejection of support and I didn't have that on my 2 longs and should have been short all day!

[cowpip 10]

Pure and simple bloody stupidity on my part. :angry:

[wasp 10]

Ah well, we are only human! Still beats a 'real' job!

[cowpip 10]

You got that right!

[cowpip 10]

Nicely done!

[cowpip 10]

You and me both. One of my rules for a reversal is a rejection of support and I didn't have that on my 2 longs and should have been short all day!

 

How do you define or quantify rejection?

[wasp 10]

How do you define or quantify rejection?

 

It should at least go within 20 odd pips and it didn't even do that! I've had family here today and they have distracted me (a likely excuse!!) and I have just rushed in annoyingly.

 

Especially when 48hrs ago I said this would be happening! :crap:

[wasp 10]

Hopefully, we will now bounce about 207 > 207.25 for a couple of hours before going north again...

[cowpip 10]

So you'd typically like to see price vibrate ABOVE or on a support zone and then close the 4-hour candle above the support to consider it a worthy rejection for longs?

[wasp 10]

So you'd typically like to see price vibrate ABOVE or on a support zone and then close the 4-hour candle above the support to consider it a worthy rejection for longs?

 

pretty much yes. A push across and then close back above would give me the most confidence.

 

Today we had occurances of price vibrating near the supports and I think I'm being harsh on myself in hindsight but a push across then retrace would be better.

[cowpip 10]

pretty much yes. A push across and then close back above would give me the most confidence.

 

Today we had occurances of price vibrating near the supports and I think I'm being harsh on myself in hindsight but a push across then retrace would be better.

 

Thanks for the clarification.

 

Yeah, there was vibration at support. The one that ticked me off (and in hindsight, I did recognize it, but failed to translate it into action) was the vibration BELOW 66ish. It was as clear as day that price was being rejected off of that support-turned-resistance. And when the 4-hour closed below it, I should have shorted from 45, not go long. Silly mistake. But hey... them's the breaks. Can't win'em all.

 

Again, I can't tell you how grateful I am that you're helping to walk through this all with me. I'm getting it... Just need more practice.

[wasp 10]

I think we are going to find support here now though. Unfortunately, I expect we will have a bit of congestion and sideways movement again.

 

That the worst part about messing up good trends, you need those pips to get you through the crap and make it all worthwhile...

[firewalker 10]

So far so good. Nice hammer on the 30-min and a near-doji on the hourly. The hourly still looks weak though.

 

This is where the mechnical trader acts on the hammer, while the discretionary trader might also decide to do so, but gets out at the first sign of trouble.

 

Notice how momentum was picking up to the downside... going long here is going against a very strong current.

 

Just my 2c

 

[firewalker 10]

+55 pips on a 500 pip range week by Wednesday. WTF??!?!?! :\

 

Long again @ 206.30

 

To be honest, I think you're lucky to be in profit...

 

I had a quick look at the latest trades and are were long. If I were taking longs against such a prevalent downmove, people would tell me I'm crazy trying to catch a falling knife! This is just an observation, not an accusation

 

If you buy support just because it's support without waiting for some kind of confirmation that buyers are still around there, you've set yourself up for a higher risk imo.

 

Taking into account that I know next to nothing about this instrument, this is how I see it! I'm sure you had pretty much the same as a support zone, but where is the long signal you & cowpip are seeing?

 

[pipMonster 10]

It's most likely the 15-min chart triple bottom at 205.26, which is within the 20 pip zone of previous 240-min support of ~205.15. If anything, this is finally the level to be long from as the Asian session quieted down in a big way.

 

Cowpip - I hope you have your alarm set to check in on your trade before the 4 hr interval is up because your trade is jamming!

[wasp 10]

To be honest, I think you're lucky to be in profit...

 

I had a quick look at the latest trades and are were long. If I were taking longs against such a prevalent downmove, people would tell me I'm crazy trying to catch a falling knife! This is just an observation, not an accusation

 

I agree, we were catching a falling knife. A ******* sharp one too. Of course, you don't know that till its landed.

 

If you buy support just because it's support without waiting for some kind of confirmation that buyers are still around there, you've set yourself up for a higher risk imo.

 

Yes and no. Yes, I wasn't waiting for my usual confirmation but that I know why I did it, which helps me slightly. That said, price can reverse very quickly with no signs at all sometimes.

 

Taking into account that I know next to nothing about this instrument, this is how I see it! I'm sure you had pretty much the same as a support zone, but where is the long signal you & cowpip are seeing?

 

 

On a smaller TF, I see plenty of places for buying but no secondary strength/weakness retest occurances which I would normally look for. I did also point out earlier that every Yen pair was destined for more down move, yet still took the trade

 

I didn't wait for confirmation or decent rejections of the levels and that's what buggered me. Still, gonna be pissed off regardless!

[firewalker 10]

I agree, we were catching a falling knife. A ******* sharp one too. Of course, you don't know that till its landed.

 

Well the fanning of the trendlines did offer some clues...

 

Yes and no. Yes, I wasn't waiting for my usual confirmation but that I know why I did it, which helps me slightly. That said, price can reverse very quickly with no signs at all sometimes.

Agreed, that's where I would look into volume for clues. But as FX doesn't have it, I'd be more focused on the length and strength of the buying and selling waves: see how far the last swings traveled and so on.

 

On a smaller TF, I see plenty of places for buying but no secondary strength/weakness retest occurances which I would normally look for. I did also point out earlier that every Yen pair was destined for more down move, yet still took the trade

Ha! I know how you feel... I was in a short yesterday and I figured:

(a) to hell with it I'll just leave it on till the close despite nothing is happening and it has a good chance of getting back breakeven (for the 3rd time that day)

(b) I'll take profits now and be happy with what the market offers

First I went for (a) but then I changed my mind into (b) and ofcourse near the end of the day the market went a great deal lower

 

I didn't wait for confirmation or decent rejections of the levels and that's what buggered me. Still, gonna be pissed off regardless!

 

Why not? Impatience or something else?

[wasp 10]

Well the fanning of the trendlines did offer some clues...

 

Bloody lagging indicators.

 

Agreed, that's where I would look into volume for clues. But as FX doesn't have it, I'd be more focused on the length and strength of the buying and selling waves: see how far the last swings traveled and so on.

 

[lack of] reaction at support should have warned me.

 

Ha! I know how you feel... I was in a short yesterday and I figured:

(a) to hell with it I'll just leave it on till the close despite nothing is happening and it has a good chance of getting back breakeven (for the 3rd time that day)

(b) I'll take profits now and be happy with what the market offers

First I went for (a) but then I changed my mind into (b) and ofcourse near the end of the day the market went a great deal lower

 

Sods law is a very underestimated factor!

 

Why not? Impatience or something else?

 

I had family visiting. Trying to concentrate on my 'silly line' when I have a 2 and 5 year dragging me each and every direction to play does not act as the most professional working environment.

 

Shouldn't have worked for that reason alone really.

[firewalker 10]

Bloody lagging indicators.

 

Not sure what you mean by that, a trendline is not an indicator and it's not lagging either. Obviously you don't need a trendline to tell you that momentum was picking up to the downside, but I just wanted to illustrate it graphically...

 

I had family visiting. Trying to concentrate on my 'silly line' when I have a 2 and 5 year dragging me each and every direction to play does not act as the most professional working environment.

 

Shouldn't have worked for that reason alone really.

 

Doesn't sound unfamiliar really... last time I messed up was when I had other things to attend to. I could trade, but I had only 90 minutes and in that time for some reason I desperately wanted to put a trade on and didn't follow the plan. Why do we let these external factors influence our trading decisions?