Trade Discussion and Analysis

[wasp 10]

I've heard other big players say that the time-zone (upon which daily candles start for the big dogs) is at midnight, London time. Any opinion on whether there is truth to that? London is the central location where most of the liquidity is pushed through, so it makes sense - but is it true?

 

I have no idea. I always skip the opening candle then I am in for the week, regardless of time of day. Don't pay time much mind personally.

[wasp 10]

Well... discipline (wait for 2nd candle of the week stat% better) can bite you on the arse too!

 

I knew the break of the daily trend line would trigger this as pointed out last week...!

 

Who says being disciplined to a strict plan is a good idea!?

 

150 pips in opening 2hours :doh:

[firewalker 10]

I've heard other big players say that the time-zone (upon which daily candles start for the big dogs) is at midnight, London time. Any opinion on whether there is truth to that? London is the central location where most of the liquidity is pushed through, so it makes sense - but is it true?

 

I doubt any of the big players are waiting for a candle to close... let alone a complete hour...

[firewalker 10]

I should probably contribute a bit more here. It's been a while since I made my daily analysis. But last Friday was one of those days where the signals were very clear. Too bad these kind continuation setups don't appear more often.

 

I've deliberately chosen not to use trend, support or resistance in this example. Just to show that just observing price action (and volume) you can get a very good clue of what the market's intentions are. This is from last Friday, August 08, DOW e-mini, 5-minute candles:

 

(1) If price caught you off guard at the open (moving up 200 points in a good 30-minutes, there was at least one possibility to get aboard later on.

 

Keeping in mind that price has already traveled the average daily range, I think it's important to keep expectations in check and not expect the market to move another 100 points just because we want it to. Then again, price can move further than what seems rational.

 

(2) Unless you are paying attention to volume, you would've entered long at 'A', on what looks like a breakout of the converging triangle. And somebody with a wide enough stop would have gotten away with it. But not me, because I wanted to see continuation straight away. If price doesn't move, I'm out. I prefer to take a small loss than sit tight and hope.

 

(3) 'B' was the definite entry, confirmed by volume. Notice how the attempt to move higher at 'A' gets rejected immediately. Not so at 'B', volume takes off completely and price makes another push higher about one hour later. All of this requires patience obviously. And lots of it.

 

(4) After that price makes Higher Highs and Higher Lows, but momentum seems to take off. Given that it's a Friday and price has already made a run for almost 350 points, we realize that the first sign of trouble should make us run for the exit.

 

(5) 'G' is still a higher low, but selling pressure comes in near 'H'. Look at where the candles close and look at the volume. We fail to make a high above 'F'. With less than one hour till the close, I'd definitely scale out here. If we break below 'G' the last swing will be broken and if you didn't take some profits at 'H', you'll want to do so at 'I' (giving back 50 points though)...

 

[JT1 10]

Mornin' all,

 

Few additions and changes and lines updated. Here is my outlook for the week ahead and levels I will be watching. A couple more lines to adapt to all levels played important parts in the last few weeks. Also a template for those curious in a bigger picture.

 

Sunday and the sun is shining so I am out of here... Catch you all tomorrow.

 

Do you have any lines of interest drawn that are not visible within this charts horizons?

 

Cheers.

[wasp 10]

Do you have any lines of interest drawn that are not visible within this charts horizons?

 

Cheers.

 

Nope what you see I see.

[wasp 10]

Well... discipline (wait for 2nd candle of the week stat% better) can bite you on the arse too!

 

I knew the break of the daily trend line would trigger this as pointed out last week...!

 

Who says being disciplined to a strict plan is a good idea!?

 

150 pips in opening 2hours :doh:

 

Well, well, fancy that! Discipline DID work out best after we dropped but retraced 150 overnight!

 

Still, that break of the trendline makes me think the pound may have some downside due against the yen. (obviously just musings, not trading because of said line).

[smbtnt 10]

very rare day indeed fw. The velocity and thrust which we V'd off 400 and busted resistance at 480 without a decent pullback upto 630 zone was unbelievable. As pointed out by yourself, thereafter it was case of implementing basic TA with logical stops at swing lows being an uptrend etc.

Your point about market travelling up another 100 points was valid, the evidence in favour far out measured a friday afternoon sell-off.

The double top on daily at 670 was Resistance. Chances of it droping without testing this zone was unlikely. Thus a 630 breakout entry was on imo....

The follow through 7th Aug after the DT was engulfed by the 8th daily forming candle thus invalidating the 7th and hence exhibiting confirmation of a higher low as opposed to a lower high on the daily swings.

After closing above 670 it was a case of trailing stop on the 15min lows. Eventual exit at 720.

One would only be comfortable trading the above if one's sentiment was overwhelmingly bullish for the day's close.

[wasp 10]

That would have been one of those beautiful days to trade. Nice and simple from the word go and I would have said there was no reason to exit till the close, but hindsight is 20/20.

[smbtnt 10]

I see resistance at 211.40 area and as it has now rejected said level twice this morning, I expect a re-test of 210.70 at least, if not the break and close below.

 

Good, the fact we are not closing above 211.50 also tinges this pair with a bearish flavour, for now anyway.

As an experienced GBP/JPY trader; do you feel the round numbers (50, 00) play an important part in s/r as they do in cable?

[wasp 10]

Good, the fact we are not closing above 211.50 also tinges this pair with a bearish flavour, for now anyway.

As an experienced GBP/JPY trader; do you feel the round numbers (50, 00) play an important part in s/r as they do in cable?

 

I don't look for action around them specifically but I do find my S/R areas do coincide highly with the round numbers. Are you still trading FX or just the YM now?

[smbtnt 10]

I don't look for action around them specifically but I do find my S/R areas do coincide highly with the round numbers. Are you still trading FX or just the YM now?

 

I went off cable ( the only fx pair I enjoyed trading) after the dire price action in April, May and June.

It opened up abit in July for me and I have started taking smaller positions since mid july. It's been a positive start and hence interest in GBP/JPY.

Hows it going at your end?

[wasp 10]

I went off cable ( the only fx pair I enjoyed trading) after the dire price action in April, May and June.

It opened up abit in July for me and I have started taking smaller positions since mid july. It's been a positive start and hence interest in GBP/JPY.

Hows it going at your end?

 

Same as you, cable went to pot so I ditched it and it only really came back the last couple of months but finding GJ so much easier to read and trade now. Euro should have been the sensible choice in theory but never like it much. Firewalker has got me interested in YM too now but still concentrating on GJ as the size and readability is that much easier IMO.

[smbtnt 10]

Same as you, cable went to pot so I ditched it and it only really came back the last couple of months but finding GJ so much easier to read and trade now. Euro should have been the sensible choice in theory but never like it much. Firewalker has got me interested in YM too now but still concentrating on GJ as the size and readability is that much easier IMO.

 

Yes, YM is very s/r orientated but with its own nuances like any other instrument. You will do well if you have adjusted to reading gbpjpy. Never enjoyed euro myself either, too conservative i felt...

[smbtnt 10]

Looks like she is holding that 210.70 for now.....

offering a long off 210.80...would that be a valid s/r trade wasp? or just noise at the hourly level?

[wasp 10]

I won't be taking it yet. I'll wait for the the US first and always try to limit my trades to the 240m chart too to avoid over trading. I'll wait till later to see how it pans out personally.

[smbtnt 10]

I won't be taking it yet. I'll wait for the the US first and always try to limit my trades to the 240m chart too to avoid over trading. I'll wait till later to see how it pans out personally.

 

quick side note...which broker do you prefer for meta?

[wasp 10]

quick side note...which broker do you prefer for meta?

 

I use alpari as my main one as I have an account with them so I don't need to worry about downtime and (too) dodgy prices! I don't do my main tradnig with them.

 

Do you have a preference then? I find they are all much the same, the key is a live account as they never lose connection.

[smbtnt 10]

I use alpari as my main one as I have an account with them so I don't need to worry about downtime and (too) dodgy prices! I don't do my main tradnig with them.

 

Do you have a preference then? I find they are all much the same, the key is a live account as they never lose connection.

 

North finance and WHC as backup, IB is my broker....

The timezone is an issue but generally metatrader is great and easy platform to use. WHC offers a plethora of other futures contracts which comes in handy..

[wasp 10]

North finance and WHC as backup, IB is my broker....

The timezone is an issue but generally metatrader is great and easy platform to use. WHC offers a plethora of other futures contracts which comes in handy..

 

That's the great thing about WHC... Moneyrain I used before for the same reasons but their data was extremely unreliable. I was using 'forexstar' who are based in Oz, NZ and HK and they print the 240m an hour earlier but prefer alpari. All that said, even netdania are good... With FX, there is no one exact price so anything close too is fine.

[smbtnt 10]

That's the great thing about WHC... Moneyrain I used before for the same reasons but their data was extremely unreliable. I was using 'forexstar' who are based in Oz, NZ and HK and they print the 240m an hour earlier but prefer alpari. All that said, even netdania are good... With FX, there is no one exact price so anything close too is fine.

 

What spread does your main broker offer on gbp/jpy?

[wasp 10]

What spread does your main broker offer on gbp/jpy?

 

Varies from 0 to 15 depending on conditions. That's with http://www.capitalforexpro.com/about.php...

 

Alpari is 7 I think... What does IB offer?

[firewalker 10]

very rare day indeed fw. The velocity and thrust which we V'd off 400 and busted resistance at 480 without a decent pullback upto 630 zone was unbelievable.

 

Yeah, the strong reaction at the open (also pointed out by wasp on his chart) was basically the "go-signal". You might find the following interesting, it's from the book "Markets in Profile - Profiting From the Auction Process" and it discusses the kind of open on Friday, one that the author calls the 'Open-Drive':

 

"The strongest and most definitive type of open is the Open-Drive, in which the market opens and auctions aggressively in one direction. In Mind over Markets, the analogy we used was that of a race horse that explodes out of the gate and never looks back. The Open-Drive results in the lowest odds of opening prices being revisited, which provides you with an early market reference point; if price returns to the opening, you know that something has changed since the early morning, and chances are much higher that the day will end with the market auctioning in the opposite direction."

[smbtnt 10]

Yeah, the strong reaction at the open (also pointed out by wasp on his chart) was basically the "go-signal". You might find the following interesting, it's from the book "Markets in Profile - Profiting From the Auction Process" and it discusses the kind of open on Friday, one that the author calls the 'Open-Drive':

 

"The strongest and most definitive type of open is the Open-Drive, in which the market opens and auctions aggressively in one direction. In Mind over Markets, the analogy we used was that of a race horse that explodes out of the gate and never looks back. The Open-Drive results in the lowest odds of opening prices being revisited, which provides you with an early market reference point; if price returns to the opening, you know that something has changed since the early morning, and chances are much higher that the day will end with the market auctioning in the opposite direction."

 

Does he go on to discuss the probability of a follow through the next day?

[smbtnt 10]

IDEAl pro fx on IB seems to vary between 2-5

have a look...

gbpjpy spread.avi