Trade Discussion and Analysis

[wasp 10]

Btw, I thought YOU were the big money

 

Having a quiet couple of weeks... Thought I'd keep things in just 6 figure sizes since its summer

 

As it goes, GJ is still bigger BUT, not been as smooth and thus not as many pips because the winners haven't been bigger than the losses as they would have been on EJ.

[wasp 10]

Some stupid idiot forgot to plug in his laptop overnight and it went to standby as the battery dwindled. I awoke to see I didn't take a trade I technically should of and was 70pips better off. Not anymore!

 

There is no solid S/R to cause the reversal I can see of. As it is bouncing off resistance at the moment, it makes me look to the dailies and, as the daily trendline has been rejected twice in the last week, both times the bounce being less and less, it makes me think it could be time to break and drop. The EURJPY is pushing the similar trendline too.

 

Either that or fly high!!!!

[wasp 10]

All pound and euro dropping nicely now... could be on for a sell off me thinks... would like to see this daily TL broken with a vengeance on GJ though

 

EDIT: I still cannot believe, the one market supposedly with bigger movement than all the rest i trailing. EJ, EU and cable already moved 300 and GJ just hitting 200! (yes, I am in GJ and none of the others! Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr!)

Edited August 8, 2008 by wasp

[JT1 10]

Having a quiet couple of weeks... Thought I'd keep things in just 6 figure sizes since its summer

 

As it goes, GJ is still bigger BUT, not been as smooth and thus not as many pips because the winners haven't been bigger than the losses as they would have been on EJ.

 

Just to clarify, exactly -

 

What needs to happen for you to ADD a new solid S/R line to your chart?

 

What needs to happen for you to DELETE an existing solid (right across the chart/screen) S/R line from your chart?

 

Cheers.

[wasp 10]

Sorry JT but, despite what may be written by the 'experts', there is no defining characteristics that state exactly what justifies me adding or removing lines, nor can my 'plan' be written down.

 

The longer I trade, the looser my 'plan' becomes and the more it becomes 'sense'. I don't think I could write down what defines it, I just gauge it through experiences.

[cowpip 10]

Wasp, you close out your positions at the end of the week, don't you?

 

Nice end to the week. Well done!

[cowpip 10]

One more question for you Wasp? Do you recall the last time you had a losing week? Do they happen very often for you? I couldn't find a negative week since you started logging (which I continue to appreciate very much!).

[Phil Mibbutz 10]

Sorry JT but, despite what may be written by the 'experts', there is no defining characteristics that state exactly what justifies me adding or removing lines, nor can my 'plan' be written down.

 

The longer I trade, the looser my 'plan' becomes and the more it becomes 'sense'. I don't think I could write down what defines it, I just gauge it through experiences.

 

 

Spot on. Nowadays I just watch candles and volume (which is why I gave up on FX...). Apart from a couple of EMAs, the lines on my chart are all in my mind, so to speak.

[wasp 10]

One more question for you Wasp? Do you recall the last time you had a losing week? Do they happen very often for you? I couldn't find a negative week since you started logging (which I continue to appreciate very much!).

 

Not sure... they happen though!

 

Wasp, you close out your positions at the end of the week, don't you?

 

Nice end to the week. Well done!

 

Its not over yet and my long looks like it may have been a slight pullback before short continuation at the moment. :doh:

[cowpip 10]

That's +431 on the week. I feel like I am showing off and massaging my ego posting live so I am going to stop unless everyone would like me to continue.

 

Balderdash, dude! That's not ego. That's reality!

 

I would appreciate it if you could continue to post, if for just one more week... it's (as you probably know) incredibly helpful when you're trying to digest the nuances of a new strat. I think I've pretty much figured it out now, but would appreciate just a tad more guidance in your 'wise ways'.

 

But do whatever you feel is best.

[wasp 10]

Against my 'rules' but, with EJ and EU and cable dropping and the daily TL breaking, I cannot see this getting back up to 212 again. I may be kicking myself by the next candle but going to stand out for now as its Friday lunch and the US open did little.........

 

I knew I would end up kicking myself!!!

 

Serves me right for looking at other markets and having an 'opinion'. The trendline has been rejected again and now I must await till next week after watching one of the better single candles move without me this week :doh:

[cowpip 10]

...now I must await till next week after watching one of the better single candles move without me this week :doh:

 

Well if it's any consolation (and it probably isn't), it's been some time since I've seen anyone perform as acutely as you have this week. I have little doubt that you will once again milk the vine next week.

 

At least the playing field has finally opened up.

[wasp 10]

Well if it's any consolation (and it probably isn't), it's been some time since I've seen anyone perform as acutely as you have this week. I have little doubt that you will once again milk the vine next week.

 

At least the playing field has finally opened up.

 

You are right, it has opened up but no, I am not happy I jumped out. I don't usually succumb to fear but I broke my own rules and that's the worst thing. I should take the trade and accept the losses instead of taking a profit in order not to give pips back. :crap:

 

I hate missing out more than losses too!

 

Nice trade btw, good little move you had there.

 

Anyhow, I am off or the weekend... Have a good one, catch you all Monday.

[wasp 10]

Closed my GJ trade for +71 and I'll stay flat now through the weekend. Had this not been a weekend, I would have reversed here and gone short at 211.62 But I'm of the opinion that it's not wise to take an entry this close to the end of the week. Anything could happen during the weekend to change sentiment.

 

Anyway, have a great weekend everyone!

 

Wasp... you 'da man! I deeply appreciate the time you've taken to share your thoughts and trades during this week.

 

Cheers cowpip, just don't go following me too much. (I know you aren't copying me but just be wary of paying too much attention to my trades.) You have to find your own path as all our needs and limits and our trading personalities are different.

 

Have a good one.

[cowpip 10]

I haven't been following your lead for that precise reason. I've been taking trades and making my own decisions before checking this thread. Although I know you know, I don't know if the others reading this know (? :hmmmm: ?) that had I been following you, I would have had a profit this week following your strat. But as it is, I have taken a loss during the initial phase of getting my bearing. My bungles at attempting to "fine-tune" cost me my profits. And rightly so! If you're going to commit, commit. Don't dither about. Stay committed.

 

I've been trading full-time now for a few years now, but have never been able to find anything that really works well with my personal style on GJ. That pair has always creeped me out. But your style, Wasp, is like a breath of fresh air. I love it. It fits me well, and so I thank you for sharing.

 

Success in this method is critically dependent upon accurate placement of S/R lines. Although I've heard many people say that they are approximate zones or areas, there is still a "center" to that zone which, if properly placed, will make all the difference.

 

EDIT: I will admit that seeing what you do (after the fact) has had a minor bearing on my thinking. But once I have a plan, I tend to want to see if I'm right regardless of what someone else thinks.

[wasp 10]

I don't think it seems that way. I find your "live" posts useful to follow. However, i by no means expect you or anyone to make public or justify your personal trade decisions. So while they are helpful, i''d say - don't feel obliged to post anything.

 

If posting your live trades is affecting your trading performance for the worse, by being a distraction etc. as could easily be the case, for your own sake i would advise you to stop the posts, and concentrate solely on the "business" of making pips.

 

Hi JT,

 

I have no objections to posting them but only if it benefits someone. I make 4-15 trades a week, 50 weeks a year, over the next 20 years that means a lot of trades and so one week to the next makes little odds to me, its just a job.

 

I just don't want to look like I am showing off as I have no reason to care what anyone else thinks of my abilities.

 

If my posting encourages others and we can all help each other then sweet, otherwise it all just seems a bit pointless is all.

[cowpip 10]

It should be clear to others here that your posts have been of benefit to me. But then, I've been the dominant one asking questions and therefore the dominant one benefiting from the responses lately. If my questions (and questions from others earlier in this thread) have been providing answers for those watching, then great. Otherwise, people need to get out of their comfort zone and start asking questions.

 

As I understand it, that's the purpose of this thread - to share and discuss trades and the reasoning behind them. These can be immensely useful threads, particularly to people who are just beginning to learn forex. It's not intended to be an ego-fulfilling trip, which is why losses are encouraged to be reported just as readily as wins. And since Wasp has been honestly posting his losses and his wins, it's proof to me that this is not an ego trip for him. He's just using this thread as it is intended to be used, and hoping that it may be benefiting people who are watching. And for me, it is.

[myrtleturtle 10]

good going wasp, with your 400+ pips this week on GJ.

 

I have been browsing babypips, and re-read the James thread on inside and outside bars.

 

interestingly, I found that Tess and Jocelyn seem to be quite complimentary about it.

I think its because they are primarily price-action players, and think the IB/OB are a good starting point for newbies.

Also, they seem to be very confident and capable traders here on TL on the "Busy Tomorrow" thread that interested me to value of their views.

 

If James can make 40-100 per day on GU, wouldnt translate to a lot more on GJ?

and, into the bargain, only work between 7am-4pm?

 

Based on Tess and Jocelyns remarks, I might give James a shot.

(I can understand the inside-bars, since they are essenstially pin-bars across 2-bars, but he uses Fib retraces!!)

 

(oh, by the way, I have dumped Hulls)

[wasp 10]

good going wasp, with your 400+ pips this week on GJ.

 

Thanks Myrtle :embarassed:

 

I have been browsing babypips, and re-read the James thread on inside and outside bars.

 

interestingly, I found that Tess and Jocelyn seem to be quite complimentary about it.

I think its because they are primarily price-action players, and think the IB/OB are a good starting point for newbies.

Also, they seem to be very confident and capable traders here on TL on the "Busy Tomorrow" thread that interested me to value of their views.

 

If James can make 40-100 per day on GU, wouldnt translate to a lot more on GJ?

and, into the bargain, only work between 7am-4pm?

 

Based on Tess and Jocelyns remarks, I might give James a shot.

(I can understand the inside-bars, since they are essenstially pin-bars across 2-bars, but he uses Fib retraces!!)

 

End of the day IMO, if you are trading based on traders actions (be it S/R, or strength/weakness, fibs etc... - which incidentally Gammajammer said ALOT of bank traders do watch), then you are onto a winner.

 

(oh, by the way, I have dumped Hulls)

 

You know, the hulls were only a trendline replacement strat so I could automate and in trending markets its fine, but as it is impossible to know when the market is trending, they are only worthwhile half the time.

 

One thing I would say these day is I do not use one 'book cliche'. I know it sounds petty but you have to throw all you learn out of your mind I think to truly be trading the markets.

 

Forget 'trending, range or chop', the market just is. Forget the Japanese names for a candlestick and read between the lines as others are watching different timeframes and from different chart providers so look for weakness and strength, not something that fits into a books classification.

 

I'm sure there is a Bruce Lee/Buddhist quote applicable here but its too early to remember it but I think you all get my point!

 

Just my 2c

[myrtleturtle 10]

good going wasp, with your 400+ pips this week on GJ.

 

Thanks Myrtle :embarassed:

 

 

 

End of the day IMO, if you are trading based on traders actions (be it S/R, or strength/weakness, fibs etc... - which incidentally Gammajammer said ALOT of bank traders do watch), then you are onto a winner.

 

 

 

You know, the hulls were only a trendline replacement strat so I could automate and in trending markets its fine, but as it is impossible to know when the market is trending, they are only worthwhile half the time.

 

One thing I would say these day is I do not use one 'book cliche'. I know it sounds petty but you have to throw all you learn out of your mind I think to truly be trading the markets.

 

Forget 'trending, range or chop', the market just is. Forget the Japanese names for a candlestick and read between the lines as others are watching different timeframes and from different chart providers so look for weakness and strength, not something that fits into a books classification.

 

I'm sure there is a Bruce Lee/Buddhist quote applicable here but its too early to remember it but I think you all get my point!

 

Just my 2c

 

yes I understand the need to perhaps discard terms, and to understand what they represent.

I have begun to appreciate narrow ranges as indecision, or breathing, and have learnt to ignore MAs in those circumstances. But I havent gained the confidence to actually trade them as breakouts.

 

I am beginning to see retraces and let them happen, and only make potential trades when they start to go sideways, in the same way that when you throw a ball upwards, it will rise in first second, rise less in second second, rise even less in third second, seem to stop, then start to fall.

I can see how in a downtrend, a retrace that reaches this zenith may be best entry for shorting, just as it starts to fall again in direction of higher direction.

 

key thing here, is my lack of confidence, and reliance on indicators to trigger a trade.

 

the interesting thing is that I dont have targets, so perhaps give back too much as I fail to realise the trend is over, and a reversal has happened rather than a retrace.

FW has a thread about this somewhere.

 

good luck for this coming week, and keep posting your trades.

[wasp 10]

 

yes I understand the need to perhaps discard terms, and to understand what they represent.

I have begun to appreciate narrow ranges as indecision, or breathing, and have learnt to ignore MAs in those circumstances. But I havent gained the confidence to actually trade them as breakouts.

 

I am beginning to see retraces and let them happen, and only make potential trades when they start to go sideways, in the same way that when you throw a ball upwards, it will rise in first second, rise less in second second, rise even less in third second, seem to stop, then start to fall.

I can see how in a downtrend, a retrace that reaches this zenith may be best entry for shorting, just as it starts to fall again in direction of higher direction.

 

key thing here, is my lack of confidence, and reliance on indicators to trigger a trade.

 

the interesting thing is that I dont have targets, so perhaps give back too much as I fail to realise the trend is over, and a reversal has happened rather than a retrace.

FW has a thread about this somewhere.

 

good luck for this coming week, and keep posting your trades.

 

 

Confidence only comes through successful practise. To be 100% confident in the unknown is impossible and daft so as the saying goes, practise makes perfect..............

 

As for targets, I don't have them either, as known, my exits are reason to enter and thus, if you think the market will be reversing, whilst you may not want to reverse, if it met your criteria for an entry, ergo, it's a good exit point.

 

Good trading

[cowpip 10]

Hey Wasp, hope you've had a good weekend. It's been a hot one here.

 

What are those red X's you have marked on your S/R overview "treasure map" for?

[wasp 10]

Hey Wasp, hope you've had a good weekend. It's been a hot one here.

 

What are those red X's you have marked on your S/R overview "treasure map" for?

 

Its been a quiet relaxing one. My plans got scuppered by bad weather but all good otherwise.

 

Those red crosses are those damn losing trade things where price indicates a reversal but everyone keeps on selling/buying. Inevitably sad but unavoidable.

[cowpip 10]

AHHH... gotcha! Much obliged! I wasn't sure if it was dot-to-dot, or "dig here" or what. Didn't even think it would be loss locations. Didn't mean to dredge up bad memories. Take'r easy!

[cowpip 10]

I've heard other big players say that the time-zone (upon which daily candles start for the big dogs) is at midnight, London time. Any opinion on whether there is truth to that? London is the central location where most of the liquidity is pushed through, so it makes sense - but is it true?