Trade Discussion and Analysis

[cowpip 10]

In approx 13 minutes.

 

What is the current time there? It's currently almost 18 GMT according to the world clock. Are you accounting for daylight savings time?

 

I would have thought your daily candle open time would have been closer to the Asian market open hours.

[wasp 10]

What is the current time there? It's currently almost 18 GMT according to the world clock. Are you accounting for daylight savings time?

 

I would have thought your daily candle open time would have been closer to the Asian market open hours.

 

My bad, thought you meant 240m. It is 7:24 local time and my daily candle is at 11pm so 3 hours 36 minutes to go....

[cowpip 10]

My bad, thought you meant 240m. It is 7:24 local time and my daily candle is at 11pm so 3 hours 36 minutes to go....

 

Ahhh, that's much better. Thanks for the clarification.

[cowpip 10]

Wasp, on your chart for today that you posted in the traders log, you have a short horizontal line penciled in around mid-July that just incorporates the small dip / reversal that took place. You explained that the short lines are just for reference and you don't use them to base decisions off of. Why pencil them in at all if they aren't used to make decisions? I'm confused why they're shown if you don't make use of them.

[wasp 10]

Wasp, on your chart for today that you posted in the traders log, you have a short horizontal line penciled in around mid-July that just incorporates the small dip / reversal that took place. You explained that the short lines are just for reference and you don't use them to base decisions off of. Why pencil them in at all if they aren't used to make decisions? I'm confused why they're shown if you don't make use of them.

 

Do you mean this one?

[cowpip 10]

Do you mean this one?

 

That's the puppy.

[wasp 10]

That one, along with any others similar (ie short, not whole screen) are purely minor levels between my major levels which I was looking at and monitoring for their effectiveness of turning price. These minor levels came out 50/50 and whilst I am not using them because of this reason, they are still there for my interest and confirmation occasionally but it is only the major full screen levels that matter to me.

[cowpip 10]

Gotcha. Thanks.

[wasp 10]

I am getting a bit fed up with this to be honest.

 

My stops and risk is based on the statistics of this market moving 200 points on average in a good move, and stops at 60 are justified.

 

At the moment the profits are hardly any better than the stops and whilst it spikes about and takes 3 hours to move 50 pips, it just doesn't warrant my methods.

 

The reward just isn't justifying the risk. Its either a case of waiting for better times, or reducing the stops. Have to think about this....!

[myrtleturtle 10]

I am getting a bit fed up with this to be honest.

 

My stops and risk is based on the statistics of this market moving 200 points on average in a good move, and stops at 60 are justified.

 

At the moment the profits are hardly any better than the stops and whilst it spikes about and takes 3 hours to move 50 pips, it just doesn't warrant my methods.

 

The reward just isn't justifying the risk. Its either a case of waiting for better times, or reducing the stops. Have to think about this....!

 

wasp,

are you trading just the GY, or splitting your resources across multiple pairs?

 

I am finding the spikey action equally frustrating, as it takes out my stops, only to resume the trend.

good luck with it, and also cowpip, quite a fascinating thread what with no indicators and all.

[wasp 10]

Cheers Myrtle, these conditions suck ay! I am only trading GBPJPY at the moment, trying to concentrate the capital into the 'biggest' moving market! Except at the moment, in comparison, its the smallest!

 

As for indicators, we are using them, S and R!

 

 

 

_____________________________________________________________

 

I liked this post I made somewhere else.............

 

Dave, a market stall owner sold fruit. He sold a lot of oranges. When he first started trading, he sold them for 5p each. They sold better than whisky at an alcoholics anonymous meeting. He put them up to 10p, still sold... 20p, 30p... Obviously good oranges.

 

At 30p the sales started slowing down, he dropped them to 25p and they were selling again. Dave, being a greedy bugger went to 35p and business was okay. Jumped up to 45p and only a few went here and there. Things started to peak. He dropped back down to 40p, then 35p... business was still slow... He went back down to 30p, things picked up and he saw all his old customers come back. He kept them there for a little while, then as things stayed constant, he started to push prices up again. The same thing happened at 45p as they were again, too expensive.

 

This time, a stall opened next to him with even juicier oranges. Dave had to drop prices to 30p again but still no good, he had a bit of interest.. but he had to go back to 25p...

 

Economists and bloomberg analysts said after the event that it was the new stall, the fact it started raining oranges and something else to do with America probably, technical analysts looked at the stats in a chart, saw key levels sat at 25p, 30p, an 45p.

 

Supply, demand, support, resistance. Call it what you will and view it through FA or TA, but at the end of the day, TA always works.

[JT1 10]

I am getting a bit fed up with this to be honest.

 

My stops and risk is based on the statistics of this market moving 200 points on average in a good move, and stops at 60 are justified.

 

At the moment the profits are hardly any better than the stops and whilst it spikes about and takes 3 hours to move 50 pips, it just doesn't warrant my methods.

 

The reward just isn't justifying the risk. Its either a case of waiting for better times, or reducing the stops. Have to think about this....!

 

This scenario more or less captures the very essence of any dilemna about trading, a trading paln etc. that i have ever had. When R & R equal themselves out, you at least need a comfortable majority of winners to make the plan satisfactory.

 

Then playing about with stop sizes etc. to find the optimal overall performance. Its often swings and rounabouts Reducing the SL, in my experience of testing this type of idea, often makes little difference, for better or worse. Other times it can make a big difference for better or worse. If only we knew what was going to happen next. That would solve the problems totally. We need an insider......

[cowpip 10]

I've taken a sound little beating, to be sure. But I have been using half the normal size during this time as I get more familiar with this particular method of playing. The strategy itself seems sound to me (Wasp's performance is evidence enough) and fits my methods almost like a glove. I've been over-analyzing on the lower time-frames, which has been my downfall thus far.

 

Like Wasp says... the market isn't behaving according to the statistical norms, which dulls the edge somewhat. I suspect things won't begin to revert back to something more normal until after this week is done. NFP last week and rate decisions galore this week will probably keep many of the big players side-lined.

[wasp 10]

Like Wasp says... the market isn't behaving according to the statistical norms, which dulls the edge somewhat. I suspect things won't begin to revert back to something more normal until after this week is done. NFP last week and rate decisions galore this week will probably keep many of the big players side-lined.

 

Not sure NFP and the rates play that much part in a non US related market (I am not a fan of anything US related and their egos hence trading this pair!) and I think its more down to the time of year and caution by banks as they are all losing money! Which makes me smile regardless!!

 

But, yes.... It certainly dulls the edge that's for sure

[cowpip 10]

One thing I have noticed is that when the dollar is the dominant mover, the cross pairs tend to go sideways. I don't know why... maybe people tend to fixate on what's moving as opposed to those that aren't?

[JT1 10]

BTW wasp

 

i just ran a quick 6 month back-test of my HMA EA on H4 for the majors, a few other pairs, plus most yen pairs.

 

Its been a few months since i have done this, and usually these backtest results have been very pleasing. However, the past 6 months has returned across the board really poor test results, which must mean that the H4 trends have been generally choppy over the last 6 months.

[wasp 10]

I also think, since the credit crunch/housing collapse is mainly UK/US, the bank guys have been trading dollar crosses more so.

 

Not sure what gammajammer would think?

[myrtleturtle 10]

BTW wasp

 

i just ran a quick 6 month back-test of my HMA EA on H4 for the majors, a few other pairs, plus most yen pairs.

 

Its been a few months since i have done this, and usually these backtest results have been very pleasing. However, the past 6 months has returned across the board really poor test results, which must mean that the H4 trends have been generally choppy over the last 6 months.

 

HMAs!!??

naughty, naughty!

 

I am by no means a no-indicator bod, but the narrow ranges are more obvious on the 4-hrs, giving rise to potential breakout modes, as are pin-bar type events. but still I dont trade them.

[JT1 10]

HMAs!!??

naughty, naughty!

 

I am by no means a no-indicator bod, but the narrow ranges are more obvious on the 4-hrs, giving rise to potential breakout modes, as are pin-bar type events. but still I dont trade them.

 

Yes, "indicator" is a dirty word for me

:missy::helloooo:

Tis better to go down fighting, and believing you know what is happening, and having a reason for doing what you did, rather than placing this responsibility into the hands of some visual representation of a mathematical formula.

[cowpip 10]

Another question for you Wasp. In a case where price runs well past your entry and then comes back (like now, after testing the next resistance level), do you ever close your position and try to reorient it at another location, or have you found that doing so doesn't usually provide you with a better entry?

[cowpip 10]

In the current example, the 4-hour candle has closed in a bearish config, so I would probably hold. But if it closed in a candle such as something like a spinning top-instead, how would you handle it?

[wasp 10]

Another question for you Wasp. In a case where price runs well past your entry and then comes back (like now, after testing the next resistance level), do you ever close your position and try to reorient it at another location, or have you found that doing so doesn't usually provide you with a better entry?

 

Nope, whenever I think I am getting a better price it always carries on going the other way so I just stick to what the new 240 min candle says!

[cowpip 10]

Beautiful. That's what I wanted to hear. Simplicity at its best.

[myrtleturtle 10]

you are essentially always in the market.

your rules are Stop and Reverse?

are there any conditions under which you are actually out of the market?

[cowpip 10]

you are essentially always in the market.

your rules are Stop and Reverse?

are there any conditions under which you are actually out of the market?

 

I'll let Wasp respond to this one, but from what I understand, if conditions deteriorate such that the risk to reward ratio moves toward unity, it's worth stepping out and waiting or search for another pair (or change stop sizes and target sizes). But that's just common sense.

 

For myself, if I take too many consecutive losses, I'll step out and reassess, as that's usually a sign of a mis-step. But again, that's just common sense too.

 

EDIT: Forgot... if I get the timing off, I'll personally step out and wait until I get a valid signal.

Edited August 7, 2008 by cowpip