Trade Discussion and Analysis

[firewalker 10]

Is this the new contract?

 

No, it was the old one (hence the unusual low volume). Switching over today... but looks like we have a 10 point offset from the September to June contract, so guess we'll need to adjust all of our S/R levels appropriately...

Edited June 12, 2008 by firewalker

[firewalker 10]

I trade behavior, so it's important to me to understand what it is that I'm trading. If I didn't, I'd have to trade mechanically, and that would be boring.

 

I try to get my excitement from something else than trading

 

What does help - at least for me - is having a clue about why price turns or moves in certain ways around certain levels. I'm not sure how 'mechanical' wasp or my own trading is, but I doubt it could be fully automated for that matter.

 

As to how long it takes, I can't say, though with the availability of replay, it should take a lot less time than it used to. One possible advantage of the YM, though, is that the underlying is comprised of only 30 stocks. This beats the hell out of trying to understand the S&P. How long it takes also may depend on where one begins. I began with stocks and all the various indexes. But this was long before affordable software, much less RT streaming prices. So my understanding of the minis may be more grounded than it would be otherwise. (On the other hand, I haven't the slightest understanding of currencies, so I don't find forex the least bit tempting.) I imagine that this also accounts to a large extent for what I understand of support and resistance. Without it, I suspect that support and resistance would be a giant mystery.

 

To be honest, although I know nothing about forex, all the charts wasp posted seem pretty straightforward to me. Whether or not an index is composed out of 30 or 100 stocks doesn't really matter to me. A chart is a chart, so to speak. Some charts didn't have labels attached to them, but the same principles present themselves over different markets and different timeperiods imo.

 

I struggled in the past trading European markets, but that was in great part because the volume and volatility before versus after US open could be of a whole different kind. I'm not saying there aren't 'specifics' to each market. Soultrader has described some elements of the KOSPI which seem different from other markets.

 

But in general, whether it's silver, gold, grains, oil, stocks, futures, I don't think you need to know what it is you're trading, to make a profit of it... All these elements might help in understanding sector rotation and why some markets lead others, but I don't see how that's very relevant to intraday trading.

 

Just my 2c.

[firewalker 10]

Chart of the ES. Had my eye on this today, and it's exactly where we just bounced off.

 

I'm still at this point where are all of this is fascinating to me, it's not boring at all... but who knows what I'll say in 5 or 10 years from now.

 

 

Since this is a congestion from almost two months ago, I find it all the more remarkable.

[wasp 10]

Chart of the ES. Had my eye on this today, and it's exactly where we just bounced off.

 

I'm still at this point where are all of this is fascinating to me, it's not boring at all... but who knows what I'll say in 5 or 10 years from now.

 

Since this is a congestion from almost two months ago, I find it all the more remarkable.

 

Why do you find it that remarkable?

[firewalker 10]

Why do you find it that remarkable?

 

Some people would argue that support/resistance from so long ago loses it's importance...

[wasp 10]

Some people would argue that support/resistance from so long ago loses it's importance...

 

I would say it would be even more important.

[firewalker 10]

I would say it would be even more important.

 

The reason I think it's important is that since 10 April we haven't traded around that price level. I was also thinking along the lines of human psychology, instead of pure technical formations. The fact that price bounced off there means that a whole lot of people were basically looking at the same thing, not?

[wasp 10]

The reason I think it's important is that since 10 April we haven't traded around that price level. I was also thinking along the lines of human psychology, instead of pure technical formations. The fact that price bounced off there means that a whole lot of people were basically looking at the same thing, not?

 

Exactly, a wise bank trader once told me the larger the TF the more strength and as you say, the more it stands out, the more people will take notice of a level and you'll have people scaling out, exiting or going long which will stop and/or reverse it.

 

Of course, depending on economics/climate at the time and upper resistance related to that point will then decipher its future direction but something that major will always have an effect.

 

You can see that from the daily charts I have posted on GBPJPY.

[eggbeangame 10]

Chaps, another quality essay from Zeal - worth a read:

 

http://www.zealllc.com/2008/spxdown.htm

[firewalker 10]

Chaps, another quality essay from Zeal - worth a read:

 

http://www.zealllc.com/2008/spxdown.htm

 

Thanks for the post. Nothing spectacular or new, but a good read imo.

 

I think indeed it's worth noting what the author writes: "Bears see more extreme days than bulls in both directions, down and up."

 

And I also posted something similar in the Bulls or bears... thread:

"The biggest stock-market up days ever witnessed in history happen during bear-market rallies. These fast bear-market rallies quickly calm fears and convince investors that “this couldn’t possibly be a bear”."

 

And for those out there who think the market always goes up (I guess it does, eventually):

"Investors who bought stocks in late 1999 or early 2000 along with the popular mania had just started breaking even again by late 2007."

Edited June 16, 2008 by firewalker

[firewalker 10]

I did some research and was surprised to hear that there is more to the so called calendar effect than just anecdotal evidence. Apparently there is statistically significant evidence that shows that the market does have a tendency to react in a specific way on certain days or times of the year.

 

Not all of these 'calendar effects' hold up after a statistic test. The October effect for example, seems more psychologically - because of the crashes in the past - than anything that actually holds up over time.

 

What was interesting about all of this, is that the Friday Effect has been subject to a recent study by Leon Zolotoy (attached). In his conclusion he states:

 

Our results strongly suggest that the firms continued to report "bad" news on Fridays during the last two decades. The mean earnings surprise is significantly lower and the proportion of "bad" earnings announcements is significantly higher for the Friday earnings announcements compared to other trading days. This tendency persists over the whole time span of our study.

 

Moreover, our findings suggest that for the last ten years the investors systematically overreact to the "bad" earnings announcements released on Fridays, compared to their response to the "bad" news released during other trading days.

[firewalker 10]

Would've been nice...

 

Once the entry is in, it's basically just trade management.

 

[smbtnt 10]

so far down can we go. As I see it we are making lower lows and lower highs on the daily wth no sign of trendline break. Surely a test of 11k and subsequently 10750 is inevitable. I have 10k as the ultimate HS target.

[wasp 10]

FX market turnover soars

 

Category: Industry news

Tags: cable, eur/usd, usd/yen

 

The Foreign Exchange market continues to thrive with UK average daily turnover up to $1.82 trillion in the six months to April. This represents a rise of 54% from a year earlier. All of the major currencies lost maket share as emerging market activity increased. The most heavily traded currency pair was Euro/dollar with 29% of total turnover, followed some way in the distance by Cable at 12% and Dollar/Yen at 11%. Obviously this increase in volume should mean that you get tighter spreads, increased depth and better stops from now on OK?!

 

 

 

 

Good to see the important things aren't affected!

 

 

 

 

Hope everyone is doing well? Not been spending much time at the PC, just pressing the button at S and R (then S and then R!) then getting back in the sun! Back when the rains come!

[wasp 10]

Hope everyone is doing well? Not been spending much time at the PC, just pressing the button at S and R (then S and then R!) then getting back in the sun! Back when the rains come!

 

 

Well I spoke to soon! The state of GBPJPY this week it might as well still be the weekend with the (non) amount of movement happening.

[firewalker 10]

Well I spoke to soon! The state of GBPJPY this week it might as well still be the weekend with the (non) amount of movement happening.

 

ey, your thread is dying out.

 

Give us a live trade plz

[wasp 10]

ey, your thread is dying out.

 

Give us a live trade plz

 

Whilst you know I wouldn't lie to you...! I am already long and bored out of my tree!

 

Went long on the break of the S/R as shown and slowly dying a painful death of monotony.

 

I don't know why people say you should be cautious with GBPJPY :\

[cowpip 10]

I don't know why people say you should be cautious with GBPJPY :\

 

Maybe "patient" would be a better term.

 

Nice trade there, Wasp. Pretty well telegraphed even down to the 5-min. Missed that one myself. I took $/yen long off of the base of the morning and rode the ADP news higher.

[wasp 10]

Maybe "patient" would be a better term.

 

Nice trade there, Wasp. Pretty well telegraphed even down to the 5-min. Missed that one myself. I took $/yen long off of the base of the morning and rode the ADP news higher.

 

Nice one. I like your 'cowpip is...' ... I wouldn't mind a 48 hour day too! It would give GBPJPY a chance to continue and would make it worth waking up this morning!

[cowpip 10]

Nice one. I like your 'cowpip is...' ... I wouldn't mind a 48 hour day too! It would give GBPJPY a chance to continue and would make it worth waking up this morning!

 

Indeed it would. I'd do just fine if I didn't have to perform that ritual called SLEEP. Ugh... what a pain that is, isn't it?

 

You're in a much better position playing GPY/JPY (profit wise) than am I with $/yen, but then that's what you get for playing with a bigger gun. I'm not complaining... profit is profit... just wishing I had not taken my eye off of that pair this morning. It had been playing so dully lately that I disregarded it. tsk tsk...

[wasp 10]

Indeed it would. I'd do just fine if I didn't have to perform that ritual called SLEEP. Ugh... what a pain that is, isn't it?

 

You're in a much better position playing GPY/JPY (profit wise) than am I with $/yen, but then that's what you get for playing with a bigger gun. I'm not complaining... profit is profit... just wishing I had not taken my eye off of that pair this morning. It had been playing so dully lately that I disregarded it. tsk tsk...

 

It certainly would. There's nothing worse than wasting a whole day for a tight range only to exit and go to sleep and wake up to find you missed a big move. That is the problem with Yen pairs though, statistically (for the EJ and GJ anyhow) to move more in the Asian sess than the US sess.

 

Don't usually trade UJ as I prefer the bigger movements of GJ (greedy sod!) but this week has been so little compared to the last 2 that none of the yens offering much.

 

All that said, you just keep on battling on and wait for the bigger moves like a boxer waiting for those good punches. Can't have 200 pips every day I guess (would be nice though!)

 

PS: When I say GJ, I mean GBPJPY not short for GammaJammer (before you get a complex there mate! )

[cowpip 10]

PS: When I say GJ, I mean GBPJPY not short for GammaJammer (before you get a complex there mate! )

 

 

LOL... I thought you meant gigantic juggs... :rofl: I understood.

 

I'm not well placed geographically to play the yen crosses as well as I'd like. Yeah, they get awful whippy during the US session. But once in a while, particularly when 'ol Ben takes a misstep, they can kick some pretty good booty. I usually keep a closer eye on them - but not today. But that's ok. There's plenty of meat to chew out there.

[wasp 10]

LOL... I thought you meant gigantic juggs... :rofl: I understood.

 

I'm not well placed geographically to play the yen crosses as well as I'd like. Yeah, they get awful whippy during the US session. But once in a while, particularly when 'ol Ben takes a misstep, they can kick some pretty good booty. I usually keep a closer eye on them - but not today. But that's ok. There's plenty of meat to chew out there.

 

I am a bit of a workaholic though and have alarms to wake me every 4 hours to adjust positions so sleep doesn't get too much in the way!

 

I find trading non US pairs much smoother tbh. Anything US related (yen or any other pair) has a tendency to spike or chop more often whereas GJ glides happily about in the background chucking out some tasty returns (usually!) Now if it was Gigantic Juggs that would be better!!

[cowpip 10]

I am a bit of a workaholic though and have alarms to wake me every 4 hours to adjust positions so sleep doesn't get too much in the way!

 

I envy that ability. I'm afraid I'd engage ghost-entries and wouldn't remember why I lost money during the night, with that amount of sleep. Then again, who knows... maybe my subconscious would trade better when my conscious self is half asleep.

 

As far as GJ being smoother than other pairs... I must admit... Smooth curves are always the more attractive ones to watch.

[wasp 10]

Just musings from yesterdays postings and to show FW that it comes and goes but it never ends..... Just have to hold through the crap and enjoy the good!