Trade Discussion and Analysis

[wasp 10]

Getting a bit fed up with lagging trendlines and going to try this week as attached.

 

There may be some bizarre calls and losses but all the clues are there. S/R lines from 240m stays and usual 25p stops....

[wasp 10]

Its like a staircase on the EJ this week

[firewalker 10]

scratch that for -8... I really should stop trying to short EJ!

 

I think I said something like that 5 days ago

[wasp 10]

I think I said something like that 5 days ago

 

I know but these up moves are so ****ing pitiful that I am just hoping the short will come to get it out of this stupid up-trend and go back to some big swings or into a down trend.

 

I can't even swap markets as the EURUSD and GBPUSD, as well as GBPJPY is the same..... Why can't people move it as easily on the rise as well as the fall!

[wasp 10]

Did a bit of number crunching too last night and April/May/June are the poorest months for EJ in terms of volatility

[myrtleturtle 10]

I know but these up moves are so ****ing pitiful that I am just hoping the short will come to get it out of this stupid up-trend and go back to some big swings or into a down trend.

 

I can't even swap markets as the EURUSD and GBPUSD, as well as GBPJPY is the same..... Why can't people move it as easily on the rise as well as the fall!

 

you mean to tell us that you were not aware of the entirety of this beforehand?

 

(arent you shooting yourself in the foot, since you beleive the 240-mins are the key, yet you are trading off events not near the 240-min pivotal areas.)

[wasp 10]

you mean to tell us that you were not aware of the entirety of this beforehand?

 

Yes, but I live in eternal hope!

 

(arent you shooting yourself in the foot, since you beleive the 240-mins are the key, yet you are trading off events not near the 240-min pivotal areas.)

 

Yes I am, thought I'd be able to do better with candle analysis but decided to stick with my simple methods as you note there. I'm not clever enough to do the whole candle by candle analysis! I know when I'm pushing it!

[wasp 10]

Where's that GammaJammer bloke... think he needs to get his mates at Deutsche bank to start selling this market down!

[wasp 10]

I'll be back when the ranges come back too.... this is not worth getting out of bed for :ciao:

 

Swapping to longer term trades in the meantime...

[wasp 10]

go big FW!

[firewalker 10]

go big FW!

 

I look at hourly and daily charts too... and sometimes I wonder whether swing trading can yield to better profits, but I quickly realize it would be difficult to do so, especially since there are less opportunities. If you have 10 trades a year or 100 or 1000, there are more swings to catch and short term trends to ride. Ofcourse you don't want to get into every little tiny retracement.

 

Basic problem I had this week, was that there was no or little follow through to the downside. I've attached some red dots, I don't know all my entries by head but these should be close. After the trendline from 13130 to 12450 broke, I should have realized it might consolidate or retrace a portion of that move. Unfortunately I was too focused on a trend continuation that I shorted each swing up, instead of taking the long at 12450 when there was no Lower low. Beside, the level had been support from in the past.

 

I'll write some more of this in my blog, because this thread isn't about me. But this is one of those moves where if you shorted from the high, stayed in till the TL broke, you could've bagged about 600 points. With intraday trading (which means close out at the EOD), you've got no other option than to re-enter each day. But only in an ideal environment you get that entry where you want it, and sometimes price runs of without you...

 

[wasp 10]

This is exactly the same problem I have had with EJ lately. The bigger TF trend has been up yet, I take long and short signals so when the market hits that larger TF on the uptrend, the shorts have no follow through and I'm late on the long instead.

 

Life is much easier when markets swing up and down and great returns can be made from both swings but it is a bit harder in an uptrend.

 

For me, I do not label myself as _____ trader, I just go with the flow of the market and with FX, that is easier as we never close... thus switching to holding for a few days a time is much easier.

 

Anyhow, I'll contribute more on your blog as you post.

[firewalker 10]

 

Analysis in my blog.

[erierambler 10]

[quote=firewalker;38895

Analysis in my blog.

 

Just extended your major dtl and circled where traders stepped up to the plate before........

erie

 

[firewalker 10]

Just extended your major dtl and circled where traders stepped up to the plate before........

erie

 

 

Interesting. By extending it do you pay attention to it, I mean, do you expect that trendline to provide clues to the action in the future?

[erierambler 10]

Interesting. By extending it do you pay attention to it, I mean, do you expect that trendline to provide clues to the action in the future?

 

Why not? It is a major TL. It is not predicting , but anticipating........( yes I pay attention to it)

erie

[firewalker 10]

Why not? It is a major TL. It is not predicting , but anticipating........( yes I pay attention to it)

erie

 

I know it's not predicting.

As to "why not", I'd say basically because it's been breached. The trend might still be down, but I believe that any reactions to that line in the future will be mostly coincidental. But each to their own

[erierambler 10]

I know it's not predicting.

As to "why not", I'd say basically because it's been breached. The trend might still be down, but I believe that any reactions to that line in the future will be mostly coincidental. But each to their own

 

It's not to my own the Bible: Technical analysis of stock trends, by Edwards and Magee discusses extending major TL's .

erie

[DbPhoenix 42]

Your trendline should be higher:

 

[erierambler 10]

Your trendline should be higher:

 

There ya go, now where are we?

[firewalker 10]

It's not to my own the Bible: Technical analysis of stock trends, by Edwards and Magee discusses extending major TL's .

erie

 

The only reason I would extend a trendline is to see if there is a 'reaction' afterwards (what Schabacker calls a throwback) from the other side.

 

If we take the red line dbphoenix annotated as the correct trendline, than you can see there is a potential throwback (green oval), but it coincides with my S/R zone around 12700. So for me, it's just coincidental.

 

 

I'm curious as to what practical implications are for extending the trendline beyond this point. What exactly would you expect to see after the line has already been breached and touched from the other side and price is moving away from it?

Edited June 4, 2008 by firewalker

[erierambler 10]

The only reason I would extend a trendline is to see if there is a 'reaction' afterwards (what Schabacker calls a throwback) from the other side.

 

If we take the red line dbphoenix annotated as the correct trendline, than you can see there is a potential throwback (green oval), but it coincides with my S/R zone around 12700. So for me, it's just coincidental.

 

I'm curious as to what practical implications are for extending the trendline beyond this point. What exactly would you expect to see after the line has already been breached and touched from the other side and price is moving away from it?

 

If we take Db's trendline as the correct one then price is still under it, correct?

erie

[firewalker 10]

If we take Db's trendline as the correct one then price is still under it, correct?

erie

 

"still" yes, now it is again

 

But not after it spent several weeks above it. Not just sticky above it, but clearly in free space...

If you read the chart from left to right then one could see this:

(a) break of the trendline end of April

(b) touched the trendline around May 9 from the top side and went higher

© continued to move higher towards last week of May, byebye downtrend?

 

I mean, S/R may be broken at one point, but it can still provide S/R later. I'm not that sure about what it is exactly you expect trendlines to do after they've been breached (other than show the 'general' movement is still downwards, but you don't need a trendline for that).

[erierambler 10]

"still" yes, now it is again

 

I mean, S/R may be broken at one point, but it can still provide S/R later. I'm not that sure about what it is exactly you expect trendlines to do after they've been breached (other than show the 'general' movement is still downwards, but you don't need a trendline for that).

 

All I said was to extend a "major" trendline, the trendline gives general direction ( you've already said that ) . As far as breaching a trendline it, just shows a change in sentiment, that sentiment could be temporary and then a resumption of the major trend. It is different with short term trendlines, generally they are what they are, short term in nature. As a daytrader you basically deal with short term trendlines.

erie

[wasp 10]

IMO, that trendline in red is dead and should have been stopped when price crossed it and ignored from then on, a new trendline drawn (as was in black). Any touches thereafter as fw says, purely coincidential. It is no longer valid nor useful.