Trade Discussion and Analysis

[wasp 10]

The problems with trending........

 

95% of the time whenever I exit a position through S/R it retraces 10 points then continues and with fx, it is more likely to trend than not, hence my ways and the factor I do not exit at S/R.

 

Days like today are infrequent and painful! The support on EJ was too strong again as the strong hands pushed it down to buy in whilst the weak hands kept selling...

 

I'm just thankful I have good entries that whilst I gave back to the market, I've not lost out.... yet!

[firewalker 10]

The problems with trending........

 

95% of the time whenever I exit a position through S/R it retraces 10 points then continues and with fx, it is more likely to trend than not, hence my ways and the factor I do not exit at S/R.

 

Days like today are infrequent and painful! The support on EJ was too strong again as the strong hands pushed it down to buy in whilst the weak hands kept selling...

 

I'm just thankful I have good entries that whilst I gave back to the market, I've not lost out.... yet!

 

It's very frustrating to see a good trade turn into a losing one. That's why I move my stop to breakeven after the first target is hit. You seem to be an "all in - all out" man? Why not split your position?

[wasp 10]

It's very frustrating to see a good trade turn into a losing one. That's why I move my stop to breakeven after the first target is hit. You seem to be an "all in - all out" man? Why not split your position?

 

Funny you should say that... My old flatmate and I used to go on pub crawls around the town I lived a few years back. When we'd get in certain pubs where we were known, the bartender always pulled a pint glass for me and half for him.... He said that I just wasn't the type of guy that seemed to do things by half!

 

I'm not. When I enter a position I am in it full confidence and if I have my position I will have all of it as if I didn't have the belief in the reasoning, then I wouldn't be in at all.

[wasp 10]

it probably won't surprise you much either that I rarely use under 10% risk per trade!

[firewalker 10]

Funny you should say that... My old flatmate and I used to go on pub crawls around the town I lived a few years back. When we'd get in certain pubs where we were known, the bartender always pulled a pint glass for me and half for him.... He said that I just wasn't the type of guy that seemed to do things by half!

 

I just knew it wouldn't last long before you talked about drinking :rofl:

 

I'm not. When I enter a position I am in it full confidence and if I have my position I will have all of it as if I didn't have the belief in the reasoning, then I wouldn't be in at all.

 

What I meant was actually all in at once, but partial out.

[wasp 10]

What I meant was actually all in at once, but partial out.

 

Yes but if I didn't believe it would go further, why would I stay in at all?

[firewalker 10]

Yes but if I didn't believe it would go further, why would I stay in at all?

 

Well if you're sure that "95% of the time whenever I exit a position through S/R it retraces 10 points then continues" than perhaps you just have to let those 5% come back to your entry and squeeze out every pip of those other trades...

 

It seems that FX trends more than futures than, although lately the indices seem to have a lot of trending days too.

[wasp 10]

Well if you're sure that "95% of the time whenever I exit a position through S/R it retraces 10 points then continues" than perhaps you just have to let those 5% come back to your entry and squeeze out every pip of those other trades...

 

It seems that FX trends more than futures than, although lately the indices seem to have a lot of trending days too.

 

Its all percentages really and numbers. As 95% do trend more than these sharp bounces, I just grit my teeth through these events and ride out the runs.

 

Yens trend beautifully (at times) and better than some pairs as they are actively traded 24/5 whilst pairs like cable and eurusd range through the night.

 

I didn't think these trends in the dow were normal, will have to take a proper look.

[firewalker 10]

Here's my plan for exiting:

 

first exit: next S/R (from left to right first dot)

 

second: when a demand or supplyline, drawn with a steep angle is breached

 

third: attempt to make a swing lower failed (red line would be confirmation to hold position)

 

fourth: back above support

 

 

==

 

So here's my question, I've drawn a blue line, to illustrate a hypothetical situation. If you were in a short from the upper range, how far would you let price come back to your entry before exiting?

 

In general, I think any move that retraces more than the midpoint signals strength, any move that doesn't manage to go back up to 50% signals weakness. Obviously, if you're going to wait till that 50% retracement, you'll already giving back a lot of points/pips...

[wasp 10]

very, very simple. If price crossed over the resistance it is currently just below and thus consequently crossing the thick cyan trendline, I would exit all my position and be long looking for the opposite with stops below said S/R.

 

BUT, and this is a very big but, I trade forex, yens in particular and no 2 markets are the same (as you know.) Especially, indicies and currencies.

 

The behavioural difference between the markets are huge for so many reasons and what may be an excellent POV for me on fx, may suck on the YM.

 

Time

Opening hours

News

Participants

Ranges

 

Just to name a few. Again, all that would probably change or gold, or corn, or pork bellies... Hell, something that would be blatantly obvious on yens, would be very different on the Scandinavian crosses.

 

 

But there is your answer anyhow!

 

 

Additionally, with FX, I feel I can afford to let 10% either end pass me by as it still alllows tight stops and a great profit margin as they (usually) move plenty!

[firewalker 10]

very, very simple. If price crossed over the resistance it is currently just below and thus consequently crossing the thick cyan trendline, I would exit all my position and be long looking for the opposite with stops below said S/R.

 

BUT, and this is a very big but, I trade forex, yens in particular and no 2 markets are the same (as you know.) Especially, indicies and currencies.

 

The behavioural difference between the markets are huge for so many reasons and what may be an excellent POV for me on fx, may suck on the YM.

 

Time

Opening hours

News

Participants

Ranges

 

Just to name a few. Again, all that would probably change or gold, or corn, or pork bellies... Hell, something that would be blatantly obvious on yens, would be very different on the Scandinavian crosses.

 

 

But there is your answer anyhow!

 

 

Additionally, with FX, I feel I can afford to let 10% either end pass me by as it still alllows tight stops and a great profit margin as they (usually) move plenty!

 

True, and I don't know anything about FX so I'll shut up!

 

Anyway, meantime it has crossed that resistance.

 

 

And I'm off! Enjoy your weekend.

[wasp 10]

True, and I don't know anything about FX so I'll shut up!

 

Anyway, meantime it has crossed that resistance.

 

I'm not saying shut up as I think this could lead to something viable and interesting, just pointing out that those who trade each market and help move it are very different for many reasons.

 

BUY BUY BUY! :shocked:

[wasp 10]

And I'm off! Enjoy your weekend.

 

Have a stella for me!

 

Have a good one....

[firewalker 10]

Have a stella for me!

 

Have a good one....

 

Interesting... my final exit is your reversal signal.

 

Anyway, gotta run! :cheers:

[wasp 10]

Interesting... my final exit is your reversal signal.

 

Anyway, gotta run! :cheers:

 

Good enough reason to exit then it MUST be a good reason to enter!? :martini:

[smbtnt 10]

My final exit was at 912 (original entry 975 as per live trade post), after we had the high of 15 minute and 30 min pin bars busted. The move down was very steep and early in the day. There are still 3 hours of trading left, which is a lot of trading. Most volatility is usually in the 1st and last couple of hours so no point is hanging around and hoping for a big trending down day. There will be other opportunities to enter again. Now the question is do you enter with trend? or against trend? Where is your bias? We have rejected resistance very sharply at 13030 but made a higher low from yesterdays low. We have broken previous s/r zone and heading higher to the 975 zone which is the real culprit. So where is the bias? Do you wait for a pullback off 975 to long? do you short at 975? Do you long at 900 after it hypothetically bounces from 975? do you wait for 870?

[wasp 10]

My final exit was at 912 (original entry 975 as per live trade post), after we had the high of 15 minute and 30 min pin bars busted. The move down was very steep and early in the day. There are still 3 hours of trading left, which is a lot of trading. Most volatility is usually in the 1st and last couple of hours so no point is hanging around and hoping for a big trending down day. There will be other opportunities to enter again. Now the question is do you enter with trend? or against trend? Where is your bias? We have rejected resistance very sharply at 13030 but made a higher low from yesterdays low. We have broken previous s/r zone and heading higher to the 975 zone which is the real culprit. So where is the bias? Do you wait for a pullback off 975 to long? do you short at 975? Do you long at 900 after it hypothetically bounces from 975? do you wait for 870?

 

Despite what I just posted to FW, that was based on a hypothetical scenario of what I would do in that situation. I also do not look at that lower a TF although with the YM it may be advised.

 

Anyhow, my take on it, and remembering I have no indices experience really...

 

I'd be short from here (or the open still) with the pullback and rejection or resistance. Because I am looking for trends I'd be aiming for a continuation and only the current TL crossed would change my bias.

 

That's on all 4 markets too.

[firewalker 10]

Good enough reason to exit then it MUST be a good reason to enter!? :martini:

 

And here's the end of the story! Looks like a good reversal signal indeed!

But I just noticed you would've shorted later on then.

 

[wasp 10]

And here's the end of the story! Looks like a good reversal signal indeed!

But I just noticed you would've shorted later on then.

 

 

Ahh well.........

 

Regardless of TF etc, thats how I work, ie TL crossover with S/R factored but on the hourly charts I was looking at, I would have been looking to continue the short.

 

What TF is your chart?

[firewalker 10]

Ahh well.........

 

Regardless of TF etc, thats how I work, ie TL crossover with S/R factored but on the hourly charts I was looking at, I would have been looking to continue the short.

 

What TF is your chart?

 

Trading forex, your time frame is understandably greater.

That's a 1-minute chart. I try to have 1 and 5-min next to eachother.

 

The problem I have with 1-minute charts or smaller is that

(a) although they help me in earlier entries, there are more 'volume' signals than on a 5-min chart. I guess that's why it's important only to focus on those areas where volume really matters.

(b) the last swing low or high can be breached, but price still continues in the prevalent direction, while on a 3 or 5-min chart the swing is still valid

[wasp 10]

Overall, pip wise, not half bad, but considering I gave back the same again, not that great really.

 

I have been thinking about S/R and scaling out as FW mentioned but its not me. In for a penny, in for a pound so I am stuck to the laptop this weekend studying the incorporation of S/R exits into my methodology.

 

This charts shows the week and the peach boxes are the culprits for me not out enjoying myself. All this is in my blog but putting it here in case anyone has an opinion and it brings it out easier.

 

Anyhow, the issue I have is line placement. IF i had the major s/r as shown, which to exit and which to stay in at is obvious but I guess thats a skill I am going to have to spend a lot of hours honing.

[firewalker 10]

The problem I have with 1-minute charts or smaller is that

(a) although they help me in earlier entries, there are more 'volume' signals than on a 5-min chart. I guess that's why it's important only to focus on those areas where volume really matters.

 

This is an example of where I saw supply coming in, and when price got rejected at resistance. I entered off the 5-min chart. On the 1-min chart there are several volume peaks. On the 5-minute you can hardly miss the volume peaks. And imo it's not as clear a rejection on the smaller TF. That could be because of my lack of experience with 1-min charts though

 

NQ 5-minute chart:

 

NQ 1-minute chart:

[firewalker 10]

Overall, pip wise, not half bad, but considering I gave back the same again, not that great really.

 

I have been thinking about S/R and scaling out as FW mentioned but its not me.

 

Very interesting. You also got me thinking about using my final exit signal as a re-entry signal. Yesterday would've worked fine, but then again these things require testing and analyzing. I think we should encourage other people to 'blog' as well and the mutual exchange of ideas and tactics seems like a worthwile experience. I'll have another look at your charts later, but I already recognize the JPY from on T2W

 

PS: might be interesting to put to currency pair on your chart for future reference or for those who aren't acquainted with FX in general.

[wasp 10]

The volume seems to make sense to me but then again not really :doh:

 

An entry at the red dot after the rejection of the high looks a good entry though. Volume aside, looking at both, the rejection is a solid entry and the break below my double line would have given extra faith to me.

[wasp 10]

Very interesting. You also got me thinking about using my final exit signal as a re-entry signal.

 

Statistically, it works great for me. I could send you a zip file of 2008 weekly results showing the high rate of those being the reversal areas, but, try and keep the faith when you give the big boys 250 pips back come Friday and its not so easy!

 

Yesterday would've worked fine, but then again these things require testing and analyzing. I think we should encourage other people to 'blog' as well and the mutual exchange of ideas and tactics seems like a worthwile experience. I'll have another look at your charts later, but I already recognize the JPY from on T2W

 

I think it is a great idea, or put up week ending analysis on this thread. Having others opinions out of hours could make you see something you miss and adds depth to ideas.....

 

PS: might be interesting to put to currency pair on your chart for future reference or for those who aren't acquainted with FX in general.

 

It should be in the top left corner of the chart on the toolbar, but, FYI, if I say GJ = Great British Pound and the Japanese Yen, or EJ = Euro and Japanese Yen, or UJ = United States Dollar and the Japanese Yen.

 

Plus of course, in my blog I state I am a yen trader, my name has Yen lover below it and all I talk about is Yens (and alcohol! :rofl:) so thought it would be blatantly obvious! :haha: