All You Need... is a Chart

[firewalker 10]

Put all these factors together and you have two different class of traders that are worlds apart, and like i say i stand by my statement that 'professional' traders in the form that i described above are not gonna be posting on forums for the reasons above. If i caught one of my traders messing around on a forum during market hours i would fire him.

 

Well... one has to wonder what you're doing right now then... :missy:

Unless a trader is scalping, there is no reason to stay glued at the screen every second of the day.

 

But I'm afraid we are deviating from the topic, whether traders are retail, institutional, professional is irrelevant. What matters is that the information you need to trade profitable is in the chart.

 

PS: Note again how today economic news was bad (manufacturing index at 28-year low), but the market somehow mysteriously found a way to digest that and is currently trading well above the previous day's closing price.

 

P.S. It would be great if those that do trade fundamentals start some threads on the topic.

 

It would be even greater if those that do trade funnymentals come to the chatroom and explain what the market is doing in real-time

[86834 10]

Well... one has to wonder what you're doing right now then... :missy:

Unless a trader is scalping, there is no reason to stay glued at the screen every second of the day.

 

But I'm afraid we are deviating from the topic, whether traders are retail, institutional, professional is irrelevant. What matters is that the information you need to trade profitable is in the chart.

 

PS: Note again how today economic news was bad (manufacturing index at 28-year low), but the market somehow mysteriously found a way to digest that and is currently trading well above the previous day's closing price.

 

 

 

It would be even greater if those that do trade funnymentals come to the chatroom and explain what the market is doing in real-time

 

I'm here posting because i'm not trading, i take december and the first half of january off. How often do i spend time posting on these forums?

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

P.S. It would be great if those that do trade fundamentals start some threads on the topic.

 

If they do, I hope that they will define "fundamentals" accurately and not as "news" or "information". Fundamentals have nothing to do with what is being discussed here, and beginners who confuse a focus on news with anything having to do with fundamentals is going to end up in a lot of trouble.

 

Beginners should also note that "technicals", at their core, have very little to do with 868's characterization of them. See the Price Action thread.

[86834 10]

PS: Note again how today economic news was bad (manufacturing index at 28-year low), but the market somehow mysteriously found a way to digest that and is currently trading well above the previous day's closing price.

 

There you go again with a conservitive bias.... I'm not going to explain how to trade these figures because there's nothing that you're gonna learn from me typing a post, and there's no simple clean cut answer that you always seem to be after. Skill and experiance.... it's an art, yeah you don't want to hear it and think it's a cop out, but thats just the fact. All you're going to do anyway is try and disprove anything that is said

 

Thats why you will only go so far sitting at home trading on your own. If you want to learn about stuff like this then try and get yourself into a trading enviroment where you can learn from the best. Either that or accept reality mate.

[Hlm 10]

Put all these factors together and you have two different class of traders that are worlds apart, and like i say i stand by my statement that 'professional' traders in the form that i described above are not gonna be posting on forums for the reasons above. If i caught one of my traders messing around on a forum during market hours i would fire him.

You are right, if you are a "professional" trader that works in a firm or a prop shop there would be no reason to be on the internet during market hours because you are chatting and hanging out with your fellow traders in person. However, those "professional" traders that work at home and aren't affiliated with such an environment can find their fill of like minded individuals via the internet.

 

At the end of the day if people on these forums were that good 90% of them would go to a firm in the city and go 'hey look this is my trading record and pnl, i'm hot stuff' and you would get hired if you can prove you can do it, then you wouldn't be risking any of your own money, and you would have massive rapid potential to the upside in terms of earnings. When i started in the city with three other grads, it took us about a year to be a clip size that was earning us 1m a year. Plus once you're in the city you're learning for the best of the best, have the best tools on the planet at your finger tips, and have massive networking opportunities.

I am curious, where do you get that 90% figure from? There are alternatives to not going to a firm. If you are indeed that good, it's not very hard to find OPM that isn't attached to a firm. Depending on the specifics of both, going private can give your more freedom and bigger payouts. If you are already that good why would you want to deal with a firm and have dozens of eyes watching your every move. Now, I am not putting down trading firms at all. They can be very advantageous depending on ones situation. However again, all of this high percentage quoting or absoluteness just leaves a bad smell in the air.

 

Non professional traders who try and make it on their own become fascinated by entry signals that they perceive to be synonymous with a complete trading system, thats because you get a sense of control.

Well of course, because they aren't professionals yet. Joining a firm doesn't automatically make you a professional.

 

I'll say it again, look at what happened to all the dotcom day traders, making millions a year from their bedrooms. They boxed themselves in and failed to truly understand the fundamentals of what they were doing in every aspect. They had something that worked... yeah it worked then for a few years tops and gave them a false sense of security that they actually knew what they were doing.

What they were doing was no more technical than fundamental. The fact is that you could buy anything blindly (get out the dart board) and make money. This is comparing apples and refrigerators.

 

Market conditions are reflected by the people trading them, now days the day traders from their bedrooms are gone and the massive majority of the financial markets are professional city traders. There's few places at the top and if you really want to make it in this game you need to pull out all of the stops and fight to stay. Yeah you might have something thats working now for you, but it won't last, and how many of you will make enough money in a 2/3 years to never have to work again?

Do I really have to pull out the list of so called professional funds/mangers that have gone belly up within the last year?

 

As for as the other information scattered throughout your post about bias and such...good stuff. Those are big ticket items that can destroy a trader that is starting out. However non of that removes from the fact that one can be consistently profitable and make a very healthy living trading purely off of technicals/price.

[OAC 10]

Those institutions that spend billions and billions on fundamental research are looking at the weekly charts and will occasionally peek at the daily chart and its 200ma. They don't even know what a 15 minutes chart look like nor do they care. Case in point, look at Warren Buffet, one of the richest man in the world and his horizon is something like 20 years. Those prop firms that hire jocks for trader position should at least make sure they got at least a B in college Economics so they don't embarass themselves in a trader's forum.

Edited January 3, 2009 by OAC

[Hlm 10]

There you go again with a conservitive bias.... I'm not going to explain how to trade these figures because there's nothing that you're gonna learn from me typing a post, and there's no simple clean cut answer that you always seem to be after. Skill and experiance.... it's an art, yeah you don't want to hear it and think it's a cop out, but thats just the fact. All you're going to do anyway is try and disprove anything that is said

There is just a bunch of "nothing" being thrown around now. You may be right about not learning from typing a post. However, going on and on about how one can't get ahead without this or that is pointless without further more detailed explanation. Repeating it more than once is not going to add any more validity to your statements.

[86834 10]

Do I really have to pull out the list of so called professional funds/mangers that have gone belly up within the last year?

 

true, but a lot lot lot more non professionals have gone belly up in the last year.

 

I think by nature we will never agree on what defines a good successful trader, and the skills that are needed to achieve this, because we're coming from different trading backgrounds and trading mentalties.

 

To me, from the various posts on this thread, it strikes me personally that people are happy just getting by. The people who are making money have a little something that works for them. Fair enough, like i said, more power to you. However for me, and i can safely say for pretty much all the other traders i know personally and have worked with in the past, it's not about just making money - the money aspect of things got left behind a long time ago.... it's about being the best, pushing yourself and striving to be ahead of the game, using everything at your disposal to come out on top. To me it's a war, a battle of wills, minds, power and i love it with ever ounce of my heart. In my opinion the competition pushes you to new levels that you'll never achieve on your own, and in this world fundamentals play a massive role. I know it's a crappy example but if you look at them top 100 traders under 30, or any top traders lists... how many of them are just sat at home?

 

Why just get by and be happy just being another brick in the wall when you can be the best?

 

This is all just my personal opinion and how i personally view trading, and how the others around me fell too. I hope it gives an insight into why i feel so strongly that fundementals are as equally as important as technicals.

 

I'm not looking to fall out with anyone over this so likes just agree to disagree, becuase i've got bigger problems to worry about, like how big my gut has got over the past month

[Hlm 10]

true, but a lot lot lot more non professionals have gone belly up in the last year.

I mean by percentage over the norm. Also, you sound quite certain, do you have any solid number to back it up?

 

To me, from the various posts on this thread, it strikes me personally that people are happy just getting by. The people who are making money have a little something that works for them. Fair enough, like i said, more power to you.

I just want to reiterate that by your example this "getting by" was two million a year. Just want to keep it in perspective.

 

However for me, and i can safely say for pretty much all the other traders i know personally and have worked with in the past, it's not about just making money - the money aspect of things got left behind a long time ago.... it's about being the best, pushing yourself and striving to be ahead of the game, using everything at your disposal to come out on top. To me it's a war, a battle of wills, minds, power and i love it with ever ounce of my heart. In my opinion the competition pushes you to new levels that you'll never achieve on your own, and in this world fundamentals play a massive role.

 

Why just get by and be happy just being another brick in the wall when you can be the best?

Fair enough. However, for me and many professional traders I know, I don't focus all my energy on the market. For me, the "war" has already been won. Instead of spending large amounts of energy trying take more and more out of the market, I spend that extra energy with things like my family or working on lowering my golf score.

 

Is one more right than the other...no, they are just different. Does one make you more of a professional than the other...well, imo most defiantly not.

 

I would also like to note that if you are striving that hard to grab every last penny out of the market and be on top, then you are most likely not "maximizing profits per time invested".

 

This is all just my personal opinion and how i personally view trading, and how the others around me fell too. I hope it gives an insight into why i feel so strongly that fundementals are as equally as important as technicals.

 

I'm not looking to fall out with anyone over this so likes just agree to disagree, becuase i've got bigger problems to worry about, like how big my gut has got over the past month

I understand what you are saying, but to be honest you have yet to show any reason/proof that fundamentals can indeed "maximize profits per time invested" for the majority if not everyone. For example, if my strategy w/out fundamentals is superior to yours, then you may need fundamentals just to match my "profits per time invested". I can see that you feel strongly about this, and maybe for how you and your fellow traders trade it is extremely helpful. But by just simply saying something is better to someone that already has it good, doesn't really do much.

 

I know it's a crappy example but if you look at them top 100 traders under 30, or any top traders lists... how many of them are just sat at home?

Let's not forget that those lists only include those that WANT to be on it (ie attention whores). They are probably more social to begin with and enjoy trading next to other traders at a firm.

[86834 10]

I mean by percentage over the norm. Also, you sound quite certain, do you have any solid number to back it up?

 

I just want to reiterate that by your example this "getting by" was two million a year. Just want to keep it in perspective.

 

Fair enough. However, for me and many professional traders I know, I don't focus all my energy on the market. For me, the "war" has already been won. Instead of spending large amounts of energy trying take more and more out of the market, I spend that extra energy with things like my family or working on lowering my golf score.

 

Is one more right than the other...no, they are just different. Does one make you more of a professional than the other...well, imo most defiantly not.

 

I would also like to note that if you are striving that hard to grab every last penny out of the market and be on top, then you are most likely not "maximizing profits per time invested".

 

I understand what you are saying, but to be honest you have yet to show any reason/proof that fundamentals can indeed "maximize profits per time invested" for the majority if not everyone. For example, if my strategy w/out fundamentals is superior to yours, then you may need fundamentals just to match my "profits per time invested". I can see that you feel strongly about this, and maybe for how you and your fellow traders trade it is extremely helpful. But by just simply saying something is better to someone that already has it good, doesn't really do much.

 

Let's not forget that those lists only include those that WANT to be on it (ie attention whores). They are probably more social to begin with and enjoy trading next to other traders at a firm.

 

For the first part about more non professionals going bust than professionals... No i don't have figures to hand, but i would say it's safe to say that more non professionals have gone bust over the past year than professionals. The ones that blow in millions and billions get noted. Your fresh meat in the market that blows in a 100k account doesnt.

 

As for the getting by bit, yeah a couple of million in this game is just getting by in my opinion for a very average trader in the city. Analysits get more than that...., but the couple of million a year wasn't what i ment by getting by. Take the money factor out of the equation, and look at the trading itself. Who grows up wanting to be just average? That was my point.

 

As per maxing profits per time invested, that really is a personal thing. If i was doing what you were doing then i wouldn't consider myself to be maxing my prfots per time invested, and visa versa, if you were doing what i do, you'd feel the same way.

 

As for seeing proof of fundementals working, the problem with this debate (which in my opinion has always been and always be) A pure tech jocky can post a chart up on a forum with some indicators and go 'there.l... and you can pretty much find an example of anything happening on a chart and say 'look there's the proof'. Fundamentals by their nature are a lot more complex and harder to understand, hence why a lot of people don't bother, and there's lots of people out there selling crap technical indicators and pulling down the pants on the new guys (yeah same for FA, but more TA scams) For someone to explain the fundementals would take hours worth of posting to get just one point across and a lot of people still won't get it, or choose to accept it. You can automate a fully technical system very easily, but doing so with fundamentals is a complete mind field, hence why i said it's an art. Yeah if you want to be average then fair enough, stick soley to one method, but markets change and the majority of people will not last, it's a widely accepted fact. Like i say, i bet the majoirty of people right here in this forum will not be trading full time in 7-10yrs, and it won't be because they made a load and have chosen to retire. The odds are heavily stacked against every single person in the market, and what i'm saying is that you should take the time to learn the fundamentals, which will help to load the dice more in your favour when it comes to lasting in the markets.

 

As for the lists, i said it was a crappy example Most of them lists are a load of rubbish... but can be entertaining to read.

[firewalker 10]

For someone to explain the fundementals would take hours worth of posting to get just one point across and a lot of people still won't get it, or choose to accept it.

 

We have time, after all we're sitting at home. And since you are not trading in the first half of January, a couple of hours worth of posting won't make that much difference.

[86834 10]

also for the title all you need is a chart...

 

Firewalker, a question that's straight to the point. Are you meeting all your trading objectives and making a solid full time living from trading financial markets?

 

I am and beyond. If you're not then 'All you need is a chart' is a bold statment which, in my opinion, you don't have the right to make.

 

I say this because you pointed to other people like wasp as examples of people who have done well with no fundementals. I take my hat off to wasp and others and shake their hand, but why didn't you point to yourself?

 

The truth can be incoveniant...

 

edit to say, i'm not poking fun or having a go - i'm just presenting the reality that a lot of the debates on internet trading forums are pointless because a lot of the people debating still have to go there and get the t shirt...

[firewalker 10]

also for the title all you need is a chart...

 

Firewalker, a question that's straight to the point. Are you meeting all your trading objectives and making a solid full time living from trading financial markets?

 

I am and beyond. If you're not then 'All you need is a chart' is a bold statment which, in my opinion, you don't have the right to make.

 

I say this because you pointed to other people like wasp as examples of people who have done well with no fundementals. I take my hat off to wasp and others and shake their hand, but why didn't you point to yourself?

 

The truth can be incoveniant...

 

If you have been following this forum frequently enough and if you have been visiting the chatroom over the course of the last year, then you would not be asking these questions.

 

I see no point in a personal debate about credibility, because for all we know everything you say about the millions and the billions could be nothing more than thin air.

 

So far we have learnt this:

(a) if you trade without fundamentals (or your definition of) you are two steps behind the rest

(b) if you make money, but not make billions you are a failure as a trader

© explaining any of this FA-approach would take too much work, too much time, and most people wouldn't get it

 

Right. And I bet I can make it rain tomorrow, I just can't tell you where yet.

 

Fwiw, the only reason I'm still here on a Friday night is because I have been long since the buy signal at 16:10 (GMT+1) and have yet to close out my position. +30 ES points for just under 6 hours might not be your idea of "profits per time invested", but if I recall correctly the only trades I ever saw you put on have been +2's and +3's, perhaps a +5 max (In case anyone wants to have a dig, it's all in the Live Indices Trading thread).

 

The invitation to come to the chatroom and enlighten the rest of us, still stands. I hope you bring your T-shirt.

[86834 10]

yeah i posted my scalps, when i was trading a few days from home... and how many of them live scalps that i posted for 2 -3 pts on ES did i take home, quite a lot...

 

I never said unless you're making millions you're a faliure as a trader. I've repeatlaly said this wasn't the case in my posts, anyone can make millions if their conistent enough because its all about size traded when it comes to how many zero's are on the end of the pnl.

 

What i've said over and over in my posts which you just don't seem to get is why just use one method when you can use both and load the dice more in your favour, but you seem way too hung up on some issues to see this...

 

I obviously hit a sore spot there with the comment about if you're making a full time living out of trading, so that's you're beef not mine. It was a valid point, if you're not, then you're not really in a postion to make statements like 'all you need is a chart'.

 

I didn't say you wasn't making money or you were making money or anything, but the way you've reacted, to me says otherwise. So at this point i'll leave this discusion because this is comepletely pointless. Good luck - i hope you get a t shirt.

 

edit to say, i'm going to send a link to this thread to everyone in my email address book so they can have a good laugh....

[firewalker 10]

yeah i posted my scalps, when i was trading a few days from home... and how many of them live scalps that i posted for 2 -3 pts on ES did i take home, quite a lot...

 

I never said unless you're making millions you're a faliure as a trader. I've repeatlaly said this wasn't the case in my posts, anyone can make millions if their conistent enough because its all about size traded when it comes to how many zero's are on the end of the pnl.

 

What i've said over and over in my posts which you just don't seem to get is why just use one method when you can use both and load the dice more in your favour, but you seem way too hung up on some issues to see this...

 

I obviously hit a sore spot there with the comment about if you're making a full time living out of trading, so that's you're beef not mine. It was a valid point, if you're not, then you're not really in a postion to make statements like 'all you need is a chart'.

 

I didn't say you wasn't making money or you were making money or anything, but the way you've reacted, to me says otherwise. So at this point i'll leave this discusion because this is comepletely pointless. Good luck - i hope you get a t shirt.

 

The discussion is indeed pointless, until you illustrate what you are saying with a couple of live examples. I have shown enough examples and asked it many times now, along with some other traders in this thread, but it's probably easier to keep waffling about bias here and bias there. As always, shooting the messenger makes more fun than shooting the message, but I've become used to that...

 

And yes I have been trading full time ever since I quit my daytime job, over two years ago now. During 2008 there were five weeks where I did not end up net profitable (three of the during July, the rest around holidays). Not that it's relevant, but I didn't want to leave that unanswered.

 

The zero's are irrelevant also. It's not difficult to make millions if you're trading billions. However, it is highly probably that your ROI & expectation is a lot lower then mine. Good trading.

 

It was a valid point, if you're not, then you're not really in a postion to make statements like 'all you need is a chart'.

 

Since I have provided dozens, if not hundreds of examples, (most of them chart analysis at the end of day of actual trades put on live during the day), I think I'm quite entitled to make those statements.

 

If you want to put your money where your mouth is, and show us how any information outside of the chart can come up with a higher edge than what most of the purely technical traders around here have, then we well see you on Monday in the chatroom.

 

If you're not there, you'll have answered all our questions.

Good weekend.

Edited January 2, 2009 by firewalker

[86834 10]

The discussion is indeed pointless, until you illustrate what you are saying with a couple of live examples. I have shown enough examples and asked it many times now, along with some other traders in this thread, but it's probably easier to keep waffling about bias here and bias there. As always, shooting the messenger makes more fun than shooting the message, but I've become used to that...

 

And yes I have been trading full time ever since I quit my daytime job, over two years ago now. Not that it's relevant, but I didn't want to leave that unanswered.

 

The zero's are irrelevant also. It's not difficult to make millions if you're trading billions. However, it is highly probably that your ROI & expectation is a lot lower then mine. Good trading.

 

PS: I will be there on Monday when the markets open... will you?

 

 

my expectation is a lot lower than yours? - don't fantasize mate. I stand by the fact that if you were that good then you would of taken a professional route.

 

I already said i take december and half of jan off, so for your short memory, no i won't be there on monday.

[firewalker 10]

my ROI expectation is a lot lower than yours? - don't fantasize mate. I stand by the fact that if you were that good then you would of taken a professional route.

 

Given what I've seen from your trades, I'm actually pretty sure most people here have a higher ROI than yours.

 

What you're saying is that anyone here is not anywhere remotely as good as you, otherwise they would not be trading their own accounts. Pretty bold statement for someone who has only done the talking here...

 

I already said i take december and half of jan off, so for your short memory, no i won't be there on monday.

 

That's okay. I can wait until February. After all, a chart is a chart.

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

I obviously hit a sore spot there with the comment about if you're making a full time living out of trading, so that's you're beef not mine. It was a valid point, if you're not, then you're not really in a postion to make statements like 'all you need is a chart'.

 

Well, kid, I agree with just about every point that FW and HLM have been trying to make through the smoke you've been blowing up everybody's skirt, particularly with the title of the thread, and I've been making a living at this since 1989, so I am in a position to make such a statement.

 

For someone who's trying as hard as you claim to be to avoid insulting people, you certainly are doing a bang-up job of it.

[firewalker 10]

It could be me, but the hybris displayed here seems a bit misplaced, especially if you take this into account:

 

Like i say, i bet the majoirty of people right here in this forum will not be trading full time in 7-10yrs, and it won't be because they made a load and have chosen to retire.

 

"I have been trading for a few months now and at first i did take losses and my account with cmc markets got maxed out a few times. It's always game over when you get the liquidation notice e-mail from them lol.

At first looking back at it, i was pretty much just gambleing on how i thought the market was going to react to the news on yahoo finance lol. I also noticed that the dow would shoot off when it first opens most of the time. So if i read some good news on yahoo, i just went long on it at 2:30. Obviously i didn't last long."

 

Both texts are from the same person. The first from today, the other one from 18 months ago.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Could the lol be on the other foot?

[jasont 10]

I was trying to avoid getting involved in this conversation as I could see merit on both parties. I thought I could see some credibility coming in on both sides but after doing some looking over I was skeptical of your credibility 86834. Not because you may be a new or old trader but because you have been talking about things which implied you have worked in a prop firm for an extensive period of time.

 

However, I checked out your very first post on this forum, I consider myself to be good at analysis, because the first post most people make is often a question about something. Yours was "Anyone trade mini gold, if so what session times are you using?" found here :http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f3/anyone-trade-mini-gold-3820.html#post35474

 

Now I am not trying to make you out as a liar or anything but I am skeptical that someone who has been running their own private prop firm needs to ask about the E-Mini session times on Gold in a forum. Note the date of your post.

 

I am trying to enforce the fact to many new traders that everyone on this forum should be taken with a grain of salt. Unfortunately on a forum like this it is too easy for people to appear to be something and new traders get pulled in by the aura of awesomeness. Unfortunately many of the same people don't take Kung Fu Panda's approach as they charge for awesomeness.

[smwinc 20]

Thought I'd jump back on the forum, been a while . . this thread caught my eye.

 

Irespective of what people think about 86834's way of explaining things, I agree with him. The realities I see across insto's and prop firms is that the big, juicy spikes in your income come from the news-related trades.

 

I've mentioned this before around the forum - one of the greatest misconceptions in trading is people believe they will build a strategy, and slowly scale up their size until they are doing 1,5,10,20,50,100,500, etc lots in their chosen market.

 

In reality, it just doesn't happen. I have not met one person who trades like that - builds their size to say 100 S&P and trades one-dimensionally with their full-size.

 

What tends to happen is as a trader grows, his access to larger size grows. Average trade is 10 - 50 S&P, max size could be 1000.

 

The default size in the market slowly increases, but the big money trades come from specific events where the trader has massive conviction and they smack it with full-size and make their month.

 

95% of the time, those "massive conviction" moments are fundemental news announcements.

 

You will be trading, you're market is relatively too high compared to it's peers, you can see a great technical short coming up, and you have interest rate announcement in a few seconds. 75 bps is expected, but money market has priced in 100 bps. 100 bps comes out, market pops higher as the suckers buy the better-than expected news, and the MOMENT it stalls you smash the sell-side with full-size for all it's worth.

 

It's those times when everything lines up, when you use you're 50 / 100 / 1000 / whatever max size amount.

 

Edit: A lot of people hear about the guys who just come into work to trade the figures, looking to smack their size down and go home. Plenty of people do that, but they are generally the one who don't last. It can become too much like gambling.

 

The more successful traders will be in there all day - every day, maintaining the feel for their market so they have the confidence that they are understanding the vibe of the market coming into a particular news announcement - not just looking at the figures & a chart and coming up with an opinion.

Edited January 3, 2009 by smwinc

[86834 10]

Thought I'd jump back on the forum, been a while . . this thread caught my eye.

 

Irespective of what people think about 86834's way of explaining things, I agree with him. The realities I see across insto's and prop firms is that the big, juicy spikes in your income come from the news-related trades.

 

I've mentioned this before around the forum - one of the greatest misconceptions in trading is people believe they will build a strategy, and slowly scale up their size until they are doing 1,5,10,20,50,100,500, etc lots in their chosen market.

 

In reality, it just doesn't happen. I have not met one person who trades like that - builds their size to say 100 S&P and trades one-dimensionally with their full-size.

 

What tends to happen is as a trader grows, his access to larger size grows. Average trade is 10 - 50 S&P, max size could be 1000.

 

The default size in the market slowly increases, but the big money trades come from specific events where the trader has massive conviction and they smack it with full-size and make their month.

 

95% of the time, those "massive conviction" moments are fundemental news announcements.

 

You will be trading, you're market is relatively too high compared to it's peers, you can see a great technical short coming up, and you have interest rate announcement in a few seconds. 75 bps is expected, but money market has priced in 100 bps. 100 bps comes out, market pops higher as the suckers buy the better-than expected news, and the MOMENT it stalls you smash the sell-side with full-size for all it's worth.

 

It's those times when everything lines up, when you use you're 50 / 100 / 1000 / whatever max size amount.

 

Edit: A lot of people hear about the guys who just come into work to trade the figures, looking to smack their size down and go home. Plenty of people do that, but they are generally the one who don't last. It can become too much like gambling.

 

The more successful traders will be in there all day - every day, maintaining the feel for their market so they have the confidence that they are understanding the vibe of the market coming into a particular news announcement - not just looking at the figures & a chart and coming up with an opinion.

 

 

finally someone who understands what i've been trying to say. The main market that i trade is the bund and schatz as these are the markets that i learnt how to trade prop trading. Smwinc hit the nail on the head, when the figures come out is where you make the big money, i've explained before in another post that you don't trade your full clips size on every trade. For example at the moment for prop traders, the type of clip sizes knocking about for bund traders are 400 - 500lots (used to be in the 1000's). Your technical trades off S/R levels and general trades will be executed with 100 - 150 lots, but when rate figures are out, or other figures, thats when you unload the full 500lots into the market.

 

As for whoever said playing the figures have nothing to do with fundementals and it's will confuse newbies, well yeah just looking at the figures 10mins before they get released and saying i'll buy if it comes out higher, sell if it comes out lower isn't very fundamental, more of a gamble. However all the research that you put in before hand about that particular figure is fundamentals. For example following everything trichet says at ecb press conferences, and making notes to see if he implies anything, or if a usually hawkish member is making dovish comments, spending hours going through all the ecb meeting minutes everyone month and analyising what has been said to see where they're implying etc........... THIS is the fundamentals that i'm talking about, so when that figure comes out you pretty much know what people are expecting and how they're gonna react. When figures such as rate cuts come out i know exactly what i'm going to do whatever they cut, and when it comes overs the wires i act quickly because of this. This is the fundamentals and it does give you a massive edge, and yeah it makes a massive difference to your trading performance because, as mentioned before, this is when you get to unload your full size, make that 250k that makes your month.

 

In previous posts when saying i doubt many people will be trading in 7-10yrs, this is what i believe, and it's widely accept that people in this game either never get there or don't last long, but i never said anyone in particular won't be, and i never said i would still be above everyone else here implying i'm better. I might be, might not be, time will tell.

 

I've never implied that anyone or myself is better or that anyone is completely wrong. All i've done is said how it is on the otherside where the grass is a different shade of green.

 

I've never implied, or ment to imply that i'm the master trader of the universe, like i said, i'm just saying how things are on the otherside, and this is how it's done over here. Like i said, i've never once posted 'you're wrong'

 

As stated already i trade fixed incomes, mainly eurex fixed incomes, this is my bread and butter. The fixed income market is a very news and rumour driven market and it is important to understand the fundamentals to max your opportunites in the market such as this. Without the fundamentals you will never be able to profit (consistently) from such trades as trading outrights on figures or spreading calander contracts. If after all your research of ecb meetings etc etc, if the overall pictures is that for 2009 there's more room for rates cuts, employment is going to get worse, and so on and so on, when spreading this IS going to help you decided if you're going to go long or short on the forward contract.

 

Everyone here is acting like i've stood here and done 'you're all wrong and stupid pesants!' I haven't at all, like i said all i've done is said how the grass is on the other otherside. Many non professional traders tend to just trade outrights, fair enough, but when employing different trading styles then fundamentals really are useful. For example another type of trading that i like to do on my own personal account to trade seasonal spreads in commodites, which involves lots of fundamentals.

 

How i trade the markets i trade...

 

Bund - technical analysis, market profile, order flow, fundamentals - i trade outrights and calander spreads in this markert, used to do butterfly trades too, but they're not that good anymore in the bund

 

Schatz - techical analysis, market profile, order flow, fundamentals. Once again i trade outrights and calander spreads

 

Eurostoxx - techical analysis, order flow, outrights only here and i swing trade this market

 

10yr T notes - same as the bund and schatz

 

S&P emini - when i first started to trade on my own, this is the market i use to follow a lot, moved to fixed income because i stated before, this is what i learnt to trade professionally. However i do from time to time still go back and have a play on it because i like scalping this market. This is usually when i post on the forums because the eminis are more widely followed here. I use order flow and market profile to scalp 2-4 pts on each trade and have around 10 trades. Normally done before US lunch session. Many of these scalps i've posted live on these forums.

 

Seasonal Spreads in commodites as stated before is something i do on my own account.

 

Like i said, i'm not saying anyone is right or wrong, just saying how it is, and i'm glad someone else who sounds they took a simaler route has stepped in to back it up.

 

There are many markets that i've never traded before, and i never was said i was a master of all. For example i have no experience trading oil, so don't know too much about that market. I've never traded gold, but i'm interested in that market, and as i've stated in a other posts... i feel that for us traders, the future of our survial in the markets lay in trading over the counter markets such metals, so this is another area that i'm looking into and working out how them markets trade. I don't know any trader trader that knows everything about every market....

 

I'll say it again, just saying how the trading is on the otherside.... makes no difference to me what you think

Edited January 3, 2009 by 86834

[DbPhoenix 42]

I was trying to avoid getting involved in this conversation as I could see merit on both parties. I thought I could see some credibility coming in on both sides but after doing some looking over I was skeptical of your credibility 86834. Not because you may be a new or old trader but because you have been talking about things which implied you have worked in a prop firm for an extensive period of time.

 

However, I checked out your very first post on this forum, I consider myself to be good at analysis, because the first post most people make is often a question about something. Yours was "Anyone trade mini gold, if so what session times are you using?" found here :http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f3/anyone-trade-mini-gold-3820.html#post35474

 

Now I am not trying to make you out as a liar or anything but I am skeptical that someone who has been running their own private prop firm needs to ask about the E-Mini session times on Gold in a forum. Note the date of your post.

 

I am trying to enforce the fact to many new traders that everyone on this forum should be taken with a grain of salt. Unfortunately on a forum like this it is too easy for people to appear to be something and new traders get pulled in by the aura of awesomeness. Unfortunately many of the same people don't take Kung Fu Panda's approach as they charge for awesomeness.

 

I've known people who've participated in forums for years, years mind you, dispensing wisdom, giving advice, acting as veritable mentors to a continuing stream of newbies and yet who have never placed anything other than a paper trade. The better ones talk the talk in such a way that you'd never guess, unless you paid very close attention, which is unlikely if one has any sort of life.

 

But regardless of the integrity of the fiction, it remains a fiction, and when the rubber meets the road, these actors are nowhere to be found. But that's one of the elements of anonymous forums and there's nothing that can be done about it other than to become and remain forever skeptical.

[86834 10]

Also another thing that i want to add about using pure techs. From my experience (my experience and my OPINION, not saying it's right or wrong) if you love trading just pure techincal analysis then eurostoxx is a lovely market for doing that because it trades very technically, and in my OPINION, is a lot easlier to trade from a technical point of view than american markets such as the emini's.

 

My fav way to trade is to wait for resistence to break and to act as support and visa versa for shorting. Many beautiful trades throughout the day in eurostoxx employing this method alone.