Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

erierambler

Price Action Clues

Recommended Posts

I'd like to start this off with some charts for the Transports and Dow Industrials. It will be about 3 weeks from now that I can really focus more here on this thread, right now only on weekends. These charts are not the normal Indexes , but that of my own. Notice when the charts are in sync and when they diverge. Such as the Indu makes a new high in Oct/07 and the Tran does not. Then there is a test and failure.( noticeable in Dec/07 ) Now we are insync again and the Tran are reaching old highs. New highs in the index are confirming. I mainly trade the ES, so this thread will become about that but one needs to look at the trees in the forest.

erie

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=6219&stc=1&d=1209251589

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=6220&stc=1&d=1209251589

Tran.gif.7ad33ba2b57a14a3210f5299f66aac02.gif

Indu.gif.c6a6459779534c1c8663c7fbe03d5f1f.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

same charts as before only updated. Two charts have broke above potential resistance and others have not. ( creating divergence ). New highs are confirming price but sectors chart not breaking out yet. 10 day Mamis oscillator shows divergence big time so therefore very wary here.

erie

attachment.php?attachmentid=6272&stc=1&d=1209825469

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=6273&stc=1&d=1209825469

Indu.gif.e072e372921716cabc5f2ad2a63c9578.gif

Tran.gif.4970ba8156bb4a1101176b1cc8f5497d.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It might pay to break down the transports the way we break down the industrials. I wonder, for example, if containers and packaging can act as a warning regarding the strength of the transports per se:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=6284&stc=1&d=1209931312

Image8.gif.650d504a275fe2117b6240a0df102cf3.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It might pay to break down the transports the way we break down the industrials. I wonder, for example, if containers and packaging can act as a warning regarding the strength of the transports per se:

 

You've been doing this a lot longer than me. By the looks of the chart they are already diverged, correct? I have the Industrials not making the new high ( creating divergence ) this time , so wouldn't they be showing the warning?

Note: I have for the Transports on my chart: UPS, UNP, FDX, BNI, NSC, CSX, LUV, EXPD, CHRW, AMR, and JBHT. For the Industrial: XOM, GE MSFT, T, WMT, PG, CVX, JNJ, IBM, BAC. These are equal weighted composites.

Of course you are looking at bigcharts .

erie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As long as the Inds and Trans are going in the same direction, they needn't be making new highs together.

 

As for breaking down the transports, I'm not referring to stocks but to groups within transports, e.g., Industrial Engineering, which makes the trucks and railcars and engines; Containers and Packaging, which is self-explanatory; Delivery Services; etc. And it's useful to look at Industrial Transportation, which is nearer to the original constitution of transports. It's the same thing as the transportation average only without airlines.

 

One can also look at trucking alone or marine transportation alone and so on to determine just where the strength lies: in this case, rails and trucking. Which is why I mentioned containers and packaging. If trucks and rails are strong, why aren't containers and packaging equally strong? And does it matter?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
As long as the Inds and Trans are going in the same direction, they needn't be making new highs together.

 

One can also look at trucking alone or marine transportation alone and so on to determine just where the strength lies: in this case, rails and trucking. Which is why I mentioned containers and packaging. If trucks and rails are strong, why aren't containers and packaging equally strong? And does it matter?

 

Those 2 questions I can't answer, LOL. The chart I posted of the transports shows price going almost straight up. That can't continue, unsustainable....price has to consolidate or retrace, unless the buying presssure comes from the industrials.

erie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It would only be a guess for me, but the cost of diesel has not come down like the price of oil and gas. :)

 

We discussed this before, months ago (previous page), but those who are new to the thread and interested in using the trannies to predict moves in the indies may want to break them down into trucking, rails, marine, air, and so on, since the transportation average tends to be skewed by the airlines.

 

Back when the Dow people were saying that strength in the transports was indicating the end of the bear market (this was when the trannies were like 2000pts higher), I followed Containers, which were not doing very well. A month later, everything fell apart. Now they're showing more or less the same strength as the rest of the market which, unfortunately, isn't saying much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
need a move above 1090 to confirm

...

erie

 

if you would just add volume to the chart,

you could confirm a lot sooner.

 

 

don't mean to dis your effort to be a PA purist,

but money don't know and don't care if you are unpure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • ELV Elevance Health stock, watch for an upside gap breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?ELV
    • ORLY OReilly Automotive stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?ORLY
    • Date: 28th March 2025.   Market Selloff Deepens as Tariff Concerns Weigh on Investors     Global stock markets extended their losing streak for a third day as concerns over looming US tariffs and an escalating trade war dampened investor sentiment. The flight to safety saw gold prices surge to a record high, underscoring growing risk aversion. Stock Selloff Intensifies The MSCI World Index recorded its longest losing streak in a month, while Asian equities saw their sharpest decline since late February. US and European stock futures also signalled potential weakness, while cryptocurrency markets retreated and bond yields edged lower. Investors are scaling back their exposure ahead of President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on April 2. His latest move to impose a 25% levy on all foreign-made automobiles has sparked fresh concerns over inflation and economic growth, prompting traders to reassess their strategies. Investor Strategies Shift Market experts are adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of heightened volatility. ‘It’s impossible to predict Trump’s next move,’ said Xin-Yao Ng of Aberdeen Investments. ‘Our focus is on companies that are less vulnerable to tariff policies while taking advantage of market dips to find value opportunities.’ Yield Curve Signals Economic Concerns In the bond market, the spread between 30-year and 5-year US Treasury yields widened to its highest level since early 2022. Investors are bracing for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts if economic growth slows further. Long-term Treasury yields hit a one-month peak as inflation risks tied to tariffs spurred demand for higher-yielding assets. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that while tariffs may contribute to short-term price increases, their long-term effects remain uncertain. Gold Hits Record High as Safe-Haven Demand Rises Amid market turbulence, gold prices soared 0.7% on Friday, reaching an all-time high of $3,077.60 per ounce. Major banks have raised their price targets for the precious metal, with Goldman Sachs now forecasting gold to hit $3,300 per ounce by year-end. Looking Ahead As investors digest economic data showing US growth acceleration in Q4, attention will turn to Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. This data will be critical in shaping expectations for future Fed policy moves. With markets on edge and trade tensions escalating, investors will closely monitor upcoming developments, particularly Trump’s tariff announcement next week, which could further dictate market direction.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Crypto hype is everywhere since it also making new riches as well, i however trade crypto little as compared to other forex trading pairs.
    • The ewallets can be instant withdrawals like skrill etc or they can also pay through crypto but not tested their crypto withdrawals so far.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.