VSA : Crock or Not?

[mister ed 10]

I don't want to get into a protracted discussion of what VSA is or isn't either. But it's important, for newcomers anyway, to understand where an application of VSA is appropriate and where it isn't. To point out that VSA is not necessarily appropriate to every trading application is not necessarily an attack on it.

No offense Db but much of your posting to this thread is an attack on VSA. That's your right, its a public forum, just gets tiresome for those of us that do see some value in it, thats all.

 

 

It's easy to understand that a trader who elects to employ an approach that focuses on bars may choose an interval that provides a half-dozen bars per day rather than dozens, or hundreds. But even though he may understand that, for example, an hourly "no demand" bar is an amalgam of all the thousands of trades within it, even down to the tick, and that the "no demand" character of that bar may be more "meaningful" than a 1m "no demand" bar, and further that that bar may imply a larger move than that implied by a shorter-interval "no demand" bar, he must also carry a hell of a lot wider stop with that hourly bar

Re underlined - that would seem obvious.

 

 

and he must be at least as specific with the hourly bar as with a shorter-interval bar regarding the conditions for determining whether and when the trade is correct or incorrect.

Yep, obviously.

 

 

In order to determine whether any of this is "worth it" or not, one must have an internally consistent approach, if not a strategy, complete with a set of explicit and straight-forward rules that can be tested, both backwards and forwards. If the equity curve is not much better than flat, he must wonder if he's fundamentally incapable of interpreting the "background" behind his entries or if his approach and his rules are taking him in the wrong direction.

"Worth it" - there is the attack again. Again, not a discussion for this thread but I would be interested in seeing your "explicit and straight-forward rules that can be tested, both backwards and forwards" on the Wyckoff thread applied to the Wyckoff method - or is this criteria only applied to analysis methods you do not approve of?

 

 

Therefore, yes, one can theoretically assume that the "magnitude of the profit expectations [will] differ because of the magnitude" of the bar intervals. But the gap between theory and application can be exceedingly wide.

Thanks for the answer to the question, and the dig, again.

[DbPhoenix 42]

No offense Db but much of your posting to this thread is an attack on VSA. That's your right, its a public forum, just gets tiresome for those of us that do see some value in it, thats all.

 

You asked a question. I answered it. If you've interpreted everything I've included in my answer as an attack, that's your prerogative. I should point out, however, that I posted the answer only because you asked the question.

[mister ed 10]

You asked a question. I answered it. If you've interpreted everything I've included in my answer as an attack, that's your prerogative. I should point out, however, that I posted the answer only because you asked the question.

 

It was a straightforward question. No, I didn't interpret everything you included as an attack on VSA, the last two lines did, in fact, answer the question. The rest of your answer was couched in terms of an attack on VSA (again), asking if it was 'worth it', gaps between theory and application is exceedingly wide...etc. Like I said, you have made your dislike of VSA very clear, I do not know what your agenda is, but it is tiresome for those of us who see value in using VSA and would like to move forward.

[DbPhoenix 42]

It was a straightforward question. No, I didn't interpret everything you included as an attack on VSA, the last two lines did, in fact, answer the question. The rest of your answer was couched in terms of an attack on VSA (again), asking if it was 'worth it', gaps between theory and application is exceedingly wide...etc. Like I said, you have made your dislike of VSA very clear, I do not know what your agenda is, but it is tiresome for those of us who see value in using VSA and would like to move forward.

 

Somehow I think that if I had answered your question with nothing more than "one can theoretically assume that the 'magnitude of the profit expectations [will] differ because of the magnitude' of the bar intervals", you would have asked if that was all I had to say. Instead, I made an effort to explain what I meant.

 

As for whether or not the gains made with a particular bar interval are worth it, this applies to every approach that incorporates bars, whether it's VSA, Wyckoff, Market Profile, candlesticks, or even indicator-based approaches. And the gap between theory and application is wide also regardless of the approach. If you view all of this as an attack on VSA and find it tiresome, then why did you ask the question?

 

I've pointed out some inaccuracies and inconsistencies, yes, as have Bearbull and others. You are welcome to visit the Wyckoff thread and point out whatever inaccuracies and inconsistencies you find with what's posted there as well.

[mister ed 10]

I asked the question because what you said was unclear and confusing and I wanted it clarified.

 

Yes, you have pointed out inaccuracies and inconsistencies, and this in itself is not a problem. It is what is apparently an agenda you have to attack VSA and its users that is detracting from the positive work brought to this thread. Please do not deny this or obfuscate, it is apparent when reading your past and present posts, your comments go far beyond pointing out inaccuracies and inconsistencies. Like I said, I do not know what your agenda is in making the digs and snide remarks, but it detracts from what positives you bring to the thread.

 

If you wish to continue this discussion (I don't) then we can do so elsewhere - this thread has been distracted yet again and our correspondence will be moved to the VSA - Crock or not thread.

[sdoma 10]

This is not a religious post, just a metaphor.

 

In the bible, when Moses asks God, "what are you called?" God answers:

 

"I am."

 

The significance of the answer isn't obvious, but is important. Basically, in many ways, to name something is to assert possession of that thing, or power over it. The Hebrews call God Yahweh which means "he is." It's not a real name per se. To the Hebrews, God was so important that he didn't need a name, and you certainly aren't in a position to assert possession of him anyway, or to define something beyond your ken.

 

What does this have to do with VSA? Candlesticks? Well, these are all names. I think that people take one aspect of price action and name it; at that point, they've asserted possession, said "I define it and thus it is mine."

 

Then, somebody else does something with another piece of price action, and then they compare the size of their wenies and get all pissy with each other. Yours might be a half inch longer, but mine is thicker and isn't it the girth that's important? Then you go into a discussion of nerve distribution in the vagina and, well, you know how this goes.

 

So, let's all stop comparing our dongs and go pick up a special someone to use it on.

[TraderBG 10]

This is not a religious post, just a metaphor.

 

In the bible, when Moses asks God, "what are you called?" God answers:

 

"I am."

 

The significance of the answer isn't obvious, but is important. Basically, in many ways, to name something is to assert possession of that thing, or power over it. The Hebrews call God Yahweh which means "he is." It's not a real name per se. To the Hebrews, God was so important that he didn't need a name, and you certainly aren't in a position to assert possession of him anyway, or to define something beyond your ken.

 

What does this have to do with VSA? Candlesticks? Well, these are all names. I think that people take one aspect of price action and name it; at that point, they've asserted possession, said "I define it and thus it is mine."

 

Then, somebody else does something with another piece of price action, and then they compare the size of their wenies and get all pissy with each other. Yours might be a half inch longer, but mine is thicker and isn't it the girth that's important? Then you go into a discussion of nerve distribution in the vagina and, well, you know how this goes.

 

So, let's all stop comparing our dongs and go pick up a special someone to use it on.

 

 

HAHA! So true and yet hilarious at the same time

[Tasuki 10]

Is VSA a crock? Well, there's only one way to test whether it is or not, and that is to hold a contest. Let the best VSA traders on this forum put their skills towards analyzing one market that we all watch. Let's say the ES, or the $SPX. In order that participants don't have to post during the trading day, the contest should be made on daily or weekly bars. As Todd Krueger used to say, VSA works better on longer term charts anyway, so this should be perfect.

 

So, my dear VSA experts, where's the S&P going tomorrow? for the rest of the week? If you make a prediction, back it up with a chart, and show your work. Tell us what VSA pattern you see in your chart that tells you where the market is going.

 

One thing I have noticed is that VSA proponents look like geniuses until you get them up to the hard right edge, then their predictive skills don't work so well. In fact, they don't seem to work worth a damn.

 

So, skip the BS and put your money where your mouth is if you believe in VSA. I challenge you!!!!!!

[sevensa 10]

Is VSA a crock? Well, there's only one way to test whether it is or not, and that is to hold a contest. Let the best VSA traders on this forum put their skills towards analyzing one market that we all watch. Let's say the ES, or the $SPX. In order that participants don't have to post during the trading day, the contest should be made on daily or weekly bars. As Todd Krueger used to say, VSA works better on longer term charts anyway, so this should be perfect.

 

So, my dear VSA experts, where's the S&P going tomorrow? for the rest of the week? If you make a prediction, back it up with a chart, and show your work. Tell us what VSA pattern you see in your chart that tells you where the market is going.

 

One thing I have noticed is that VSA proponents look like geniuses until you get them up to the hard right edge, then their predictive skills don't work so well. In fact, they don't seem to work worth a damn.

 

So, skip the BS and put your money where your mouth is if you believe in VSA. I challenge you!!!!!!

 

Are you still in high school? Why should anyone prove anything to you? No one is trying to sell you anything and if you think something is worthless, then for heavens sake just ignore it, move on and concentrate on your profitable methodology. Why would you spend time and energy on something you don't believe in? Do you really have nothing more worthwhile to do with your time? Do you make a habbit of walking into a store demanding that they prove a product provides value even though you have no intention and no need to purchase it?

 

Can we just grow up and accept that different people trade with different ways and just because you don't and/or is not able to trade another method, does not makes it wrong?

[Tasuki 10]

Are you still in high school? Why should anyone prove anything to you? No one is trying to sell you anything and if you think something is worthless, then for heavens sake just ignore it, move on and concentrate on your profitable methodology. Why would you spend time and energy on something you don't believe in? Do you really have nothing more worthwhile to do with your time? Do you make a habbit of walking into a store demanding that they prove a product provides value even though you have no intention and no need to purchase it?

 

Can we just grow up and accept that different people trade with different ways and just because you don't and/or is not able to trade another method, does not makes it wrong?

 

Slinging insults in a public forum for traders? Talk about immature. I put forth a reasonable challenge, and this is the response I get? Calling me names is not going to prove anything (OK, it will prove one thing, but we won't go there).

 

I think I can make the claim that the Traders Lab forum has had more posts on VSA than any other financial forum. Is that correct? At least it's true that there's been a long and detailed discussion of VSA. But, during this entire time, nobody that I'm aware of has had the courage to put it to the test. So, VSA supporters and believers, take the challenge!

[sevensa 10]

Why do you think anyone owe it to you to prove it works? If they do, are they allowed to market it then as "Approved by Tasuki"? As you said, there is a long discussion about it. Read it; if it makes sense to you, use it. If it doesn't, ignore it. Demanding prove serves no purpose and is just silly, unless someone is trying to sell you something, which no one is.

 

I really don't understand the hatred against VSA here. I personally think some of the vendor's claims are a little out there and is borderline propaganda which is unfortunate, since VSA the methodology, does have good concepts and I use the parts that make sense to me. I think the time spent to find what make sense to me and "works" for me with VSA was much more worthwhile than to spend time demanding prove that it works. That goes for any system/methodology.

 

I am "putting it to the test" on a daily basis and it works for me. No, I have no interest to prove to you that it works for me. Why should I? My account will still grow regardless if you believe me or not and frankly, I don't care if you believe me and I don't know why you think anyone should care to have your stamp of approval on their method.

[Tasuki 10]

Why do you think anyone owe it to you to prove it works? .

 

Why do I think that someone should prove it to me (and to everyone else while they're at it)? Please read this carefully:

 

Because the title of this thread is: VSA, crock or not? THAT's why someone should prove it (or disprove it)---that's the discussion we're having on this thread, started by Mr. Ed, who asked a valid question---does VSA work? Well, if you want to talk about No Demand bars or Climactic Action, or the End of a Rising Market, then please go back to the VSAII thread. THIS thread is devoted to a discussion of whether VSA works.

 

All I'm saying is, talk is cheap. To really answer this question, which is, after all, the purpose of this thread, then the only proper way to do that is to put it into action and see whether VSA can predict moves.

[sevensa 10]

Oh, I see... Just because someone started a thread, this means that someone has to prove it now. Using your logic, if I started a thread and call it: "Tasuki: Crock or Not", the onus will be on you to prove that you are not? Give me a break. Anyone can start a thread. This does not mean that anyone have to prove anything. Not even to you, regardless of what you think of yourself.

[sdoma 10]

So, my dear VSA experts, where's the S&P going tomorrow? for the rest of the week? If you make a prediction, back it up with a chart, and show your work. Tell us what VSA pattern you see in your chart that tells you where the market is going.

 

I guarantee if you are still oriented on trading as prediction, it will hold you back as a trader. Nobody has a crystal ball - nobody. And, in this volatile and chaotic trading environment, anybody who tells you they can predict a move is a huckster, including VSA practitioners.

 

I've met quite a few "big traders." By big traders I mean multi-million dollars a year in income. Any of them will tell you that the best intraday and swing traders are only right 50-60% of the time in real time over time. You might have days when you kill it and you can't lose, and others where you can't buy a trade, but over time your edge tends to be 5% or so.

 

The key is identifying high reward/risk ratio situations and combining that with your edge. This has NOTHING to do with prediction. All you can do is do your research and identify entries with statistical edge over time. If you try to predict, it ties your pride in being right to the trade and will end up causing you all manner of psychological problems.

 

I am not a VSA trader per se but I do find some of the concepts to be useful because they are commonsense. I don't believe in "smart money" but I do think the market tips its hand to you at times. I mostly use VSA concepts as supporting evidence when I observe prices at a reference point.

 

For example, if the market tests the high of the day, exceeds it slightly, and falls back on heavy volume with a short range for that 5M bar (or whatever), that tells me that there were eager sellers at this reference point that overpowered buyers, and no new buyers came in.

 

If the price declines further I consider this bearish and look to sell because I know that often these moves will offer a lot of profit since the market often reverts to the mean after such a failure. I know where I am wrong (price makes a new high) and what I can reasonably expect if I'm right. Thus, I have the ability to evaluate my risk/reward ratio and act accordingly.

 

I think that your path must have form, but be formless if you are to succeed. Everything is context.

[Bearbull 10]

Statement by Tasuki is totally logical, the thread is about VSA, crock or not?

Tasuki is suggesting that he has observed 300pages on this VSA with countless examples of bar by bar hindsight analysis, infact Sebastian Manby is a wizard at this, he came for a post or two claiming he will be putting up live trades from now on, that was a few months back, well where are they, instead he is busy running a VSA club ($99/month).

 

Now Tasuki and for that matter anybody else has perfect right to express their opinion on this thread. Tasuki is bordering on the opinion that VSA is mostly crock.

Now if anybody wants to challenge that, he or she has got to come up with some evidence that it is not crock. Simple. There is no question of proving or not proving.

If you are happy and profitable using VSA, fine, but to engage in any discussion here, it is imperative to take up the challenge.

 

VSA is not a methodology, most of the central concepts are extracted from Wyckoff and then layered with unnecessary jargon for marketing purposes. Some of us have attempted to steer newcomers to the original Wyckoff for gaining knowledge on how markets work and how traders interact and then go on to construct strategies/tactics to exploit any recurring patterns they observe through their own effort and reseach and thus saving them thousands of dollars.

However it is surprising that VSA followers almost condone the exorbitant marketing by TG , infact in one of the posts it was mentioned that if they did not beef it up with jargon , how would they be able to market their products;) In other words traders are supposed to feel sorry for these guys and part with their savings so the TG gurus can make out a modest living, give us a break:crap:

[Tasuki 10]

I guarantee if you are still oriented on trading as prediction, it will hold you back as a trader.

 

For example, if the market tests the high of the day, exceeds it slightly, and falls back on heavy volume with a short range for that 5M bar (or whatever), that tells me that there were eager sellers at this reference point that overpowered buyers, and no new buyers came in.

 

If the price declines further I consider this bearish and look to sell.....

 

sdoma, in your example, above, you're using VSA principles to predict that the market will go down and it's time to go short. Now, just do it in real time with a real market.

 

We've had this discussion about prediction a long time ago on the VSAI thread. If you're right some percentage of the time, that's prediction, just on a statistical basis. If VSA (or any other method) can't give you an edge to predict where the market is going, then it has no value. OK, so nothing can predict 100% of the time, but no trader would expect that it could, at least not one that's been in the game for a while.

 

In order to determine whether or not VSA is a crock, all we need to do is to see whether it can accurately predict the direction of the market some percentage of the time that makes it useful.

 

Way back somewhere on the VSA I thread, somebody posted a challenge to VSA proponents, and I vaguely recall that I seconded that posters comments, saying essentially what I just said here---show us that it works in real time. Not a single person stepped up to the plate, and I remember we had lots of posters saying that such a test was invalid, unnecessary, they didn't have the time, etc. etc. etc.--a veritable crockpot of excuses.

 

The argument about "prediction holding you back" is a red herring. Either VSA is useful at the hard right edge, or it is not. Nobody expects 100% accuracy, or they shouldn't. But if VSA is no better than flipping a coin (up for heads, down for tails) then VSA isn't valuable to the trader except as an intellectual theory.

 

My challenge was meant to clear away the cobwebs of theory and put VSA to the test. Apparently, nobody thinks it will work because I've gotten nothing but arguments about why such a test isn't necessary, or valid or whatever.

[Bearbull 10]

I guarantee if you are still oriented on trading as prediction, it will hold you back as a trader. Nobody has a crystal ball - nobody. And, in this volatile and chaotic trading environment, anybody who tells you they can predict a move is a huckster, including VSA practitioners.

 

I am not a VSA trader per se but I do find some of the concepts to be useful because they are commonsense. I don't believe in "smart money" but I do think the market tips its hand to you at times. I mostly use VSA concepts as supporting evidence when I observe prices at a reference point.

 

 

Agree with all your comments, very pertinent, no method can predict the market, it is all about context and probability, Wyckoff has clearly stated that.

All that is being pointed out is that VSA so called methodology does not exist, have to own up to the fact that it is nothing but concepts borrowed from Wyckoff and trumped up with jargon with claims that it is something totally new brought to the attention of the world by TG gurus to track smart/dumb money.

This thread is about VSA- crock or not, if somebody is bordering on the opinion that it could be crock, that logically the onus is on the person who is claiming it is not so and the only way is to come up with evidence, via a consistently viable method.

Wasp has for instance posted his strategy based on trendlines and support/resistance( which incidentally Wyckoff made extensive use of,) and then then opened up a thread on Live FX trades. Extensive discussions on no demand, hidden upthrusts, failed tests, end of rising market on 300pages could have been averted by opening up a similar thread.

[Tasuki 10]

Statement by Tasuki is totally logical, the thread is about VSA, crock or not?

Tasuki is suggesting that he has observed 300pages on this VSA with countless examples of bar by bar hindsight analysis, infact Sebastian Manby is a wizard at this, he came for a post or two claiming he will be putting up live trades from now on, that was a few months back, well where are they, instead he is busy running a VSA club ($99/month).

 

Now Tasuki and for that matter anybody else has perfect right to express their opinion on this thread. Tasuki is bordering on the opinion that VSA is mostly crock.

Now if anybody wants to challenge that, he or she has got to come up with some evidence that it is not crock. Simple. There is no question of proving or not proving.

If you are happy and profitable using VSA, fine, but to engage in any discussion here, it is imperative to take up the challenge.

 

VSA is not a methodology, most of the central concepts are extracted from Wyckoff and then layered with unnecessary jargon for marketing purposes. Some of us have attempted to steer newcomers to the original Wyckoff for gaining knowledge on how markets work and how traders interact and then go on to construct strategies/tactics to exploit any recurring patterns they observe through their own effort and reseach and thus saving them thousands of dollars.

However it is surprising that VSA followers almost condone the exorbitant marketing by TG , infact in one of the posts it was mentioned that if they did not beef it up with jargon , how would they be able to market their products;) In other words traders are supposed to feel sorry for these guys and part with their savings so the TG gurus can make out a modest living, give us a break:crap:

 

Bearbull, thanks for the support.

 

Fascinating that Seb Man said that he would be posting live trades and then didn't follow through. If you watch/listen to SM's videos, he does sometimes try to predict where future prices will go, and he's quite often wrong.

 

My first clue, however, that there was a potential problem with VSA came from none other than Todd Krueger and Tom Williams, who made the mistake of trying to predict several markets during a question and answer session that TG recorded. After their seminar, I went back to those charts in the succeeding days and found that their predictive powers were, well, zero. I'm sure they do better than that on average, but for the few examples that they foolishly let slip, they completely blew it. I say "foolishly" because they were in the business of selling Tradeguider and raking in as many new customers as they could, so it would be foolish for them to put themselves at risk of looking like idiots in the event that any potential customer did what I did and followed up on their predictions.

 

Now, here's my problem---Todd and Tom were/are probably the world's foremost VSA interpreters (SebMan too I guess), and if THEY aren't able to do a credible job of making VSA work at the hard right edge, then maybe it really IS just an interesting intellectual theory, and not much more.

[sdoma 10]

Statement by Tasuki is totally logical, the thread is about VSA, crock or not?

Tasuki is suggesting that he has observed 300pages on this VSA with countless examples of bar by bar hindsight analysis, infact Sebastian Manby is a wizard at this, he came for a post or two claiming he will be putting up live trades from now on, that was a few months back, well where are they, instead he is busy running a VSA club ($99/month).

 

That's fine, but hindsight analysis is used to demonstrate and teach pretty much every trading method you'll encounter. After you use hindsight to learn the method, you then move to real time application. Just saying "all the examples are hindsight!" doesn't mean that it doesn't work.

 

I know nothing about the VSA club or any of that stuff. If he wants to sell his method he has that right. I, personally, would never buy tradeguider either, I use CQG. But claiming that TG or Mansby's service is a ripoff is totally different than saying "VSA doesn't work, all I see is hindsight!"

 

Tasuki is bordering on the opinion that VSA is mostly crock. Now if anybody wants to challenge that, he or she has got to come up with some evidence that it is not crock. Simple. There is no question of proving or not proving.

 

Actually, generally if you make a statement to someone else, the burden of proof falls on you and not them. Think about it, if you're accused of a crime, do most governments just haul you up before a court and say "prove you didn't do it?" No, because the burden of proof falls on the accuser. It's just logical and fair.

 

Seriously, if you don't believe something then don't believe it, but how intellectually lazy can you be to require proof that your position is wrong while not offering up any real analysis backing up your claim?

 

Anyway, if you don't believe in the concepts, then say WHY you think they don't work, i.e. why the phenomena they describe have no significance. You don't even have to PROVE it per se, just give me something to go on so we can have a real discussion about trading.

[zdo 20]

Crock pots (sp)

 

Those who are of the persuasion that VSA is simultaneously working on all time frames, including those that think one can find a pattern on the daily, then drop to an hourly and find a pattern, then go line one up on a 5 min (common timeframes selected for example only) for an entry trigger may be deluding themselves. In my experience, the principles the bb ‘operators’ are applying are only functional for one time frame in each situation. The other patterns that show up above or below the ‘live’ time frame are as ‘random’ as any other indicator. Basically, an elite VSA trader will have to either be able to identify which time frame is ‘in play’ for the current campaign OR stick with one time frame and on that one learn to discern which of the setups have the ‘guns’ really behind it in real time. That is one of the crock pots of VSA imo

 

Also, VSA’rs who say that the underlying bb phases are invariably operable are banking on a tendency that is simply not there and are creating another crock part… (got the spelling right this time). The bb’s must maintain a certain feeling of control within their risk parameters. Certain times are simply not business as usual. Market conditions (such as those we are in now) most likely have fewer bb’s looking for a place to accumulate, etc. ( not to say there aren’t great opportunities for those with a larger risk / drawdown tolerance yada yada). Basically in contagions, etc, more of them will step aside - so campaigns will have variable force, not invariable force as the ‘masters’ hint at.

 

Finally (maybe), the method fits traders with certain mental processing propensities. Other traders with slightly different perceptual and processing propensities can and have developed the same abilities to ‘discern’ using obv, tick money flow, traditional wycoff, trin, vix, etc. etc. To some, any of the methods just listed are crock – even though others are doing just fine with them… just some thoughts…

[CandleWhisperer 10]

LET'S GET READY TO RRRUMBLE !!!!!!!:

 

Contestants:

 

*Representing the VSA crowd-Eiger.

 

*Representing the candle crowd-Brownsfan

 

*Representing the Market Profile crowd-SoulTrader

 

*Representing the Wyckoff crowd-DBphoenix

 

*Representing the Taylor Method- as yet unknown

 

*Representing the Wolf Wave method- as yet unknown

 

* Other methods/market ideologies welcome as long as there is a thread or the contestant is willing to start a thread focusing on the method.

 

The rules:

 

Each competitor has a $50,000 demo account and can trade on any timeframe they choose, but the market traded well be the same. The emini s&p futures contract.

 

Points are awarded for overall account increase. Points are also awarded on the basis of the analysis that goes into a trade decision. Therefore, a contestant can be wrong on the trade but still make points for the analysis that went into it.

 

Points are awarded by ratio of trades to winners and losers. Therefore a person that makes one trade on the monthly chart and sits thru the end of the contest with just one winner doesn't get as many points as a trader who makes 10 trades with 9 winners.

 

What say you all? The rules are just a starting point. Soultrader it would be up to you to get this competition off the ground if you are game.

[zdo 20]

cw,

 

That's not a bad idea - even though it wouldn't 'prove' anything.

couple rule suggestions

1 all participants on the same timeframe

2 all participants go by same sizing rules

[sevensa 10]

No discretionary methodology can be proved/disproved. To demand such thing shows a general lack of understanding about discretionary systems. This doesn't matter if this is VSA, Wyckoff, or Candle Patterns. All that can be proven is that some people are more successfull at interpreting a specific method than others. This is why a request like this is pointless. Like any pattern, whether it is hammers, springs, or no supply, you cannot blindly act on each pattern and it is the trader's ability to interpret the context which make the method profitable or not. Even if someone here is able to post a series of profitable recommendations, this will not mean that someone else will also be profitable with the method.

 

Unless you have a 100% mechanical system, you cannot prove/disprove that it works. Even the Wyckoff disciples cannot provide clear rules that everyone looking at the same chart will make them come to the same conclusion. Does this mean that Wyckoff doesn't work either? Actually, since BearBull pointed out that VSA is nothing but borrowed concepts from Wyckoff and is just new jargon, this implies that Wyckoff is crock too if VSA is. I mean, how can Wyckoff "works" and VSA not if they really are the same thing with different names? And that implication is even nominated for the topic of the month by our own Wyckoff expert!

[CandleWhisperer 10]

cw,

 

That's not a bad idea - even though it wouldn't 'prove' anything.

couple rule suggestions

1 all participants on the same timeframe

2 all participants go by same sizing rules

 

 

No it would not "prove" a thing, but it would be fun for the whole TL community . In fact, this would be the "Main Event". Other events could be:

 

Traders with less than 2 years trading experience.

 

Traders with less than 4 months on the board.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Actually, since BearBull pointed out that VSA is nothing but borrowed concepts from Wyckoff and is just new jargon, this implies that Wyckoff is crock too if VSA is. I mean, how can Wyckoff "works" and VSA not if they really are the same thing with different names?

 

As I have pointed out repeatedly, though VSA is based on Wyckoff, they are not the same thing, any more than a lunar rover is the same as a tricycle. Beyond that, the idea of "works" is irrelevant to Wyckoff.