VSA : Crock or Not?

[mister ed 10]

This thread has come about to enable discussion on the philosophy of VSA away from the VSA threads, which are venues more for application of VSA.

 

Those wanting to question the usefulness of VSA ideas/concepts have done so in the VSA threads, but the questioning has beome so persistent and no resolution appears in sight that this thread has been created to enable that disucssion to continue.

Edited April 12, 2008 by mister ed

[Guest forsearch]

Is VSA distinct from MP or part of it?

 

-fs

[MC 10]

Is VSA distinct from MP or part of it?

 

-fs

 

Totally distinct though then could be mixed just like any other styles used for the markets.

[mister ed 10]

Hi forsearch - have you checked out the MP posts on this website? There is heaps of info there on MP and I think once you have read started reading those the differences between MP and VSA will be much clearer?

[Guest forsearch]

Totally distinct though then could be mixed just like any other styles used for the markets.

 

OK, but, I'm also trying to understand the nuances of VSA that would lead the candlestick boys to trash your methodology.

 

Not that the nuances of candlesticks aren't subtle enough as it is, given that something may have been "lost in translation" by Nison, et al, from the original Japanese implementation.

 

Candlestick analysis with reference to the corresponding volume bar is what VSA is all about; traditional candlestick trading eschews any reading of volume, correct?

 

-fs

[Ricks Inn 10]

Candlestick analysis with reference to the corresponding volume bar is what VSA is all about; traditional candlestick trading eschews any reading of volume, correct?

 

-fs

 

One small point, but important in Tom Williams' VSA, is that the OPEN value on any bar is not utilized (of course the OPEN defines one end of the body - if any - of a candle). Even the latest TradeGuider software rev. soft-pedals the alphanumeric display of the OPEN value.

[smwinc 20]

Guys, this is getting a little beyond a joke.

 

I don't want to create a long post, however I think problems come about from either misunderstanding or forgetting the core concepts types of analysis such as VSA are built on.

 

Markets have buyers, and sellers. They move in a direction when one exceeds the other.

 

Getting caught up on the nuances of the 'open' of a bar, etc. does not make any sense. Who cares.

 

Apologies if I sound a little blunt, but focusing on minor, insignificant details is what software advertising tends to do, trying to make you think it's important. This is designed for retail trades, who on net go broke. Avoid thinking like that.

 

For any valid type of analysis, often you can 'follow through' the reasoning of it, and get the same conclusions as you with another type of analysis.

 

An example scenario:

 

Market is falling.

 

Trader A suddenly sees huge bids waiting down in a correlated market. He buys the market, anticipating the implied demand from the other market, will send his market up.

 

Trader B sees that the market is about to hit XYZ moving average (insert: indicator name) and decides to buy.

 

Trader C sees that this bar was a widespread off the close with significantly above average volume. They buy.

 

Trader D sees that the market has hit a support level, and created a strong bullish hammer on above average volume. They buy.

 

Trader E sees a green light on his black box trading system, and buys.

 

End result = we all bought the market, for various reasons. Demand was there, for "whatever" reason - a candle, VSA, black box system, moving average, whatever, who cares - there was demand. The profitable trader bought it. The losing trader sold it.

 

All you want to do is be the trader who has 'some' way to identify those situations to profit more often than not.

 

Worthless types of analysis is generally when it can't be tied back to (real or implied) demand/supply in some way.

[idaxtrader 10]

"Well, he said, the customers are bound to lose their money anyhow, no matter what they buy, or how or where or when. When they lose their money I lose the customers. Well, I might as well get as much of their money as I can and then look for a new crop." (38)

 

 

This is a total joke. Why are most traders such asses? VSA is not a crock. VSA is one way of forming a framework to understand price action. Its really just one mans interpretation and modification of Wyckoff's work. Is VSA any better than Wyckoff? Of course its not. Is VSA any better than Candlestick analysis or simple bar chart pattern recognition? Of course its not. Is technical analysis any better than fundamental analysis? Of course its not. Each is simply a framework that may allow you build an edge. Its seems most people are totally lost. They are still in search for the grail. Get on the right path and become a expert in just one method. If you want to read book that deals almost exclusively with that concept read Brett Steenbargers Enhancing Trader Performance and maybe you will finally get it.

[BlowFish 10]

If you read Toms original book (tbh the free master the markets ebook is not that different so it would do) you will at least be able to debate the subject from a position of knowledge rather than ignorance. Reading a few posts in a forum might be enough for you to say 'VSA is not for me' but it hardly puts you in a position to argue its veracity or efficacy. I would never dream of criticizing peoples precious candles for example without doing similar work (I have all of Nissons and Bigalows books, I have done Nissons seminars and met the 'great man' on numerous occasions, always decent discussions about what he publishes) to do any less would be half arsed.

 

Anyway back to VSA....its simply a tool, a method of looking at the market its not a trading system or even a book about how to use the tools to trade. The basic premises are blindingly simple (perhaps more in another post). On top of those are built 10 or so 'principles' that are essentially divided into signs of strength (SoS) and signs of weakness (SoW). Again pretty simple, certainly when compared to .... errm lets say candles to be provocative

 

I personally think that there is a great deal of veracity to the basic premise and even the principles. It is firmly grounded in price action but adds volume to the mix in a structured way. Thats not to say there are not pitfalls to be wary of but show me an approach that has none and I am all over it. Yay we found the grail. (maybe more on pitfalls later if anyone is interested?)

 

Another issue is Tradeguider. I wouldn't go as far as saying they are shills but there objective is not to buy strength it is to sell weakness. They are a one trick pony. In there effort to market there inventory they are gonna make it look as attractive as possible. As I said elsewhere I am waiting for the Gavin, Tom, Sebastian and Mike action figures. They are already working on the movie tie in (DVD only). Of course the real VSA 'message' is likely to get at best, a wee bit obscured, and at worst corrupted. I should mention that I mean no disrespect to Sebastian (don't want to jeopardise our friendship:)). He can certainly read a chart and even though he is not affiliated to tradeguider he lends some credibility.

 

One thing Tradeguider has done is raise the awareness of VSA. Thats a double edged sword of course. I do remember when the book was first published the only person to really talk about it with was Tom. I wonder how many he sold in the first year, not so many I would guess. A bit later on there was a scam in the UK perpetuated by a guy calling himself the chief wizard. (or something like that). Cut a long story short he had a hacked version of VSA and Toms book was on the reading list (though he claimed to have uncovered the hidden secrets within)! Whilst that did not give as much exposure as trade guider from that moment once in a blue moon you would come across someone that had at least heard of VSA.

 

So definitely not crock, though I could certainly highlight a couple of places where there may be issues. Having said that it would be more interesting to see if the naysayers do the work for themselves. I suspect not as I don't think their motive has ever been to establish the efficacy of VSA.

 

Plenty more if anyone is really interested in debating the benefits (or not) of VSA.

[BlowFish 10]

OK, but, I'm also trying to understand the nuances of VSA that would lead the candlestick boys to trash your methodology.

 

Not that the nuances of candlesticks aren't subtle enough as it is, given that something may have been "lost in translation" by Nison, et al, from the original Japanese implementation.

 

Candlestick analysis with reference to the corresponding volume bar is what VSA is all about; traditional candlestick trading eschews any reading of volume, correct?

 

-fs

 

Problem with candles is they actually put the emphasis on the pattern. The smart guys soon realise (took me a whole bunch of time so maybe I am not as smart as I think I am) that this dogma can actually obscure what the price action (PA) is telling you. VSA is prone to the same malaise except the SoS & SoW (see previous post) are much closer to the PA.

 

Incidentally, I am pretty sure Nisson is not a trader. His business model is similar to Tradeguiders though his focus is more on advisories and seminars.

[Guest forsearch]

. If you want to read book that deals almost exclusively with that concept read Brett Steenbargers Enhancing Trader Performance and maybe you will finally get it.

 

Or better yet, watch this 2.5 hour review of it, while you still can.

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f8/enhancing-trader-performance-by-brett-n-3361.html#post34020

 

-fs

[Eiger 10]

Is VSA distinct from MP or part of it?

 

-fs

 

 

VSA comes out of the work done by Richard Wyckoff. Wyckoff was an early US trader. He started on Wall Street around the turn of the (last) century, had a brokerage business, and eventually had a newsletter and wrote a course. He was close to the major traders of his day like Jesse Livermore and EH Harriman, and studied their methods along with the big money pools and their operators. Wyckoff learned that he could read the tracks left by the bigger operators in the volume and price action on the charts. He wrote a course about this and other materials and created an organization called Wyckoff Associates to contiune his work and to educate traders on his methods (he died in the 1930s). Wyckoff Associates later became the Wyckoff/Stock Market Institute. SMI expanded the course over the years and continues to publish Wyckoff-based work to this day. Tom Williams traded for a big money syndicate (similar to the now outlawed pools of the pre 1930s) and used Wyckoff's methodology in his trading. Williams retired from syndicate trading and wrote a book called the Undeclared Secrets that Drive the Stock Market . In the book, he places great emphasis on the reading of volume as the reading of professional activity in the market, and that is it the professionals (i.e., big money operators, not the 1 & 2 lot traders) that move the markets. Williams also developed a charting package called Wyckoff/VSA by Genii Software to help identify and highlight trading principles as they occured on the chart. This later became TradeGuider.

 

Market Profile is separate from VSA. Also, as Rick mentioned above, VSA looks only at the HLC, so candelsticks are irrelevant to VSA.

 

Eiger

[lote_tree 10]

I just want to add to what smwinc said before.

 

VSA, MP, Moving averages, RSI, Candlestick patterns ect ect to me are like different types of martial arts. Each one having its own unique philosophy on how to attack and defend.

 

Who’s the better fighter, Bruce Lee or Jet Li? Both practiced different forms of martial arts but both of them could be considered great martial artists. What does this tell you? Well it tells me that it’s the practitioners’ ability to use the tools available to him/her that will determine his/her success. The martial art isn’t the most important thing, what matters is have you put in the time and the effort to perfect your technique?

 

The point is that people like Bruce or Jet could have studied any martial art and they still would have ended up as martial arts legends. By the same token had Paul Tudor Jones dveoted his life to candlestick pattern analysis he would have stilll ended up as one of the best fund managers of all time.

 

This thread reminds me of an interview with the greatest chess player of all time, Gary Kasparov. The interviewer asked him, “Which is your favourite piece”?

 

Garry replied: “I don’t have a favourite piece, I believe in all the pieces, from the pawn all the way up to the king”.

 

I think this is what separates the pro’s from the amateurs. IMHO I think having a discussion about whether VSA works or not is a waste of time.

 

I’m sorry to sound blunt but I think discussions like these will not help anyone. Just because somebody can’t get a particular method to work doesn’t mean it’s crock. All it’s telling you is that this particular trading methodology doesn’t suit you as an individual.

 

Peace…

 

Edited April 12, 2008 by lote_tree

[Eiger 10]

I just want to add to what smwinc said before.

 

VSA, MP, Moving averages, RSI, Candlestick patterns ect ect to me are like different types of martial arts. Each one having its own unique philosophy on how to attack and defend.

 

Who’s the better fighter, Bruce Lee or Jet Li? Both practiced different forms of martial arts but both of them could be considered great martial artists. What does this tell you? Well it tells me that it’s the practitioners’ ability to use the tools available to him/her that will determine his/her success. The martial art isn’t the most important thing, what matters is have you put in the time and the effort to perfect your technique?

 

The point is that people like Bruce or Jet could have studied any martial art and they still would have ended up as martial arts legends.

 

This thread reminds me of an interview with the greatest chess player of all time, Gary Kasparov. The interviewer asked him, “Which is your favourite piece”?

 

Garry replied: “I don’t have a favourite piece, I believe in all the pieces, from the pawn all the way up to the king”.

 

I think this is what separates the pro’s from the amateurs. IMHO I think having a discussion about whether VSA works or not is a waste of time.

 

I’m sorry to sound blunt but I think discussions like these will not help anyone. Just because somebody can’t get a particular method to work doesn’t mean it’s crock. All it’s telling you is that this particular trading methodology doesn’t suit you as an individual.

 

Peace…

 

 

A lot of good insight in this post, I think. I like the analogy to the martial arts and the thought that whatever was studied, they would have become great martial artists (it's less the method, more the person). It's the same as saying that Tiger Woods would have been a great tennis player, had he been handed a racquett rather than a club when a kid.

 

The main reason for this thread was that these debates and discussions were taking over the VSA threads and that was discouraging discussions on the practice of VSA as a method from happening. I guess you might say people were debating over which piece was most important, rather than playing the chess match

 

I think you have a good point: there is no one best method of trading, but there is a best method for you. This point (and several others) was made in the Market Wizards and New Market Wizards books. Nearly everyone traded the markets in different ways, and were quite successful.

 

Eiger

[james_gsx 16]

Problem with candles is they actually put the emphasis on the pattern. The smart guys soon realise (took me a whole bunch of time so maybe I am not as smart as I think I am) that this dogma can actually obscure what the price action (PA) is telling you.

 

Incidentally, I am pretty sure Nisson is not a trader. His business model is similar to Tradeguiders though his focus is more on advisories and seminars.

 

3 parts to this.

 

1 - newbie traders (read my old posts and threads to see proof of this) put too much emphasis into the actual pattern. This is very true, and why a lot of people fail with it. Just as I'm sure there is a very similar reason why people fail using MP or VSA.

 

2 - While the actual "pattern" is not all that important (try to bear with me as this is difficult to explain) but the pattern in correlation to previous price action (such as trend, support and resistance, moving averages) is important. You aren't hunting for hammers or spinning tops, but looking where supply and demand come into play. Just like SMW stated in a previous post.

 

3 - I doubt Nison trades too. But I could be wrong, he does way too much advertising for my like. If you are ever interested in Candles, Nison has some great books. But from the little bit that I know about you, Gregory Morris's book Candlestick Charting Explained might be better suited if you are ever interested. He goes a lot further than to explain each pattern and what they mean.

 

I'm not going to say VSA does or doesn't work. Obviously it works for a good amount of people as it has lasted a long time - the same is true for candlesticks, MP, and various other trading analysis. For some VSA will come across as complete nonsense and backwards - for others it's that one thing that clicks and helps them make complete sense of the market.

 

An interesting study would be to see the different types of personalities that use various techniques.

 

I am glad there are VSA vs Candlestick posts on this forum as it adds validity to both methods. It's when the immaturity steps into play when it becomes nonsense and I am as much apart of this as most.

 

Time to go watch hockey.

 

p.s - The Red Wings suck.

[Guest forsearch]

I doubt Nison trades too. But I could be wrong, he does way too much advertising for my like. If you are ever interested in Candles, Nison has some great books.[/Quote]

 

So what does Nison have to do with VSA, if anything at all?

[james_gsx 16]

So what does Nison have to do with VSA, if anything at all?

 

Nothing. I was just responding to something Blowfish had said about Nison being a trader.

[smwinc 20]

This thread reminds me of an interview with the greatest chess player of all time, Gary Kasparov. The interviewer asked him, “Which is your favourite piece”?

 

Garry replied: “I don’t have a favourite piece, I believe in all the pieces, from the pawn all the way up to the king”.

 

Really nice analogy Lote_Tree - very true when you think about it.

[darthtrader 10]

I don't really see the point in this debate. I'm not really interested in candles or VSA actually.

To me a good analogy is between a BMW, a Mercedes and a Lexus in the same price range.

The Mercedes and Lexus may as well have no value to me because I would never buy one over a BMW. However, that hardly means that a Mercedes or Lexus are "worthless". All 3 will roughly accomplish the exact same goal, just a matter of style and personal taste.

[Sledge 13]

I don't really see the point in this debate. I'm not really interested in candles or VSA actually.

To me a good analogy is between a BMW, a Mercedes and a Lexus in the same price range.

The Mercedes and Lexus may as well have no value to me because I would never buy one over a BMW. However, that hardly means that a Mercedes or Lexus are "worthless". All 3 will roughly accomplish the exact same goal, just a matter of style and personal taste.

 

I agree, and I actually question why it really only took 2 pages of bantering here for multiple people to reach this conclusion, and yet in both VSA threads it was a constant distraction that seemed to drag on and on for pages about how "worthless" VSA was.

 

Great thread though. Reason being- after what yourself and lote_tree perfectly articulated, it may subdue the doubters- for now. But when the itch comes back to trounce VSA in a month or 6 months, we in the VSA II thread will have a thread to point the "haters" to- in order to wack around VSA like a dollar store pinata and vent once again. :o

Sledge

Edited April 13, 2008 by Sledge

[MC 10]

Guys, this is getting a little beyond a joke.

 

I don't want to create a long post, however I think problems come about from either misunderstanding or forgetting the core concepts types of analysis such as VSA are built on.

 

Markets have buyers, and sellers. They move in a direction when one exceeds the other.

 

Getting caught up on the nuances of the 'open' of a bar, etc. does not make any sense. Who cares.

 

Apologies if I sound a little blunt, but focusing on minor, insignificant details is what software advertising tends to do, trying to make you think it's important. This is designed for retail trades, who on net go broke. Avoid thinking like that.

 

For any valid type of analysis, often you can 'follow through' the reasoning of it, and get the same conclusions as you with another type of analysis.

 

An example scenario:

 

Market is falling.

 

Trader A suddenly sees huge bids waiting down in a correlated market. He buys the market, anticipating the implied demand from the other market, will send his market up.

 

Trader B sees that the market is about to hit XYZ moving average (insert: indicator name) and decides to buy.

 

Trader C sees that this bar was a widespread off the close with significantly above average volume. They buy.

 

Trader D sees that the market has hit a support level, and created a strong bullish hammer on above average volume. They buy.

 

Trader E sees a green light on his black box trading system, and buys.

 

End result = we all bought the market, for various reasons. Demand was there, for "whatever" reason - a candle, VSA, black box system, moving average, whatever, who cares - there was demand. The profitable trader bought it. The losing trader sold it.

 

All you want to do is be the trader who has 'some' way to identify those situations to profit more often than not.

 

Worthless types of analysis is generally when it can't be tied back to (real or implied) demand/supply in some way.

 

Very well put...that about sums it up.

It's only as complex as we want to make it.

[DbPhoenix 42]

POSTS #22 TO #30 of this thread have been moved from the VSA II thread to here as they were not of much relevance to the application of VSA - Mister Ed.

 

 

Bearbull - I have pulled this one paragraph out of all your recent posts as it summarises the very important point of the context, or background, against which 'signals' (for want of a better word) occur, and as you say is a point important not only to VSA, but also to Candlestick analysis, and other methods. Thanks very much for re-emphasising this important point, nice series of posts.

 

I like Bearbull's post as well. However, I should point out that what is or is not relevant depends in large part on what the trader is trying to accomplish, which in part is what I was trying to say to winnie. Defining a "no demand" bar is vastly easier than defining "support" and "resistance", or "demand" and "supply". Not only is it easier, it is necessary if one is going to code a signal into software. Perhaps this is why the focus of VSA is so different from the Wyckoff material on which it is based.

 

What so many newcomers to VSA don't understand is that a "no demand" bar means "no demand" at that time, and that the lower prices that the bar implies may occur for only a couple of bars. It does not mean that price is going to plummet 10 or 20 or 30 points in the next five minutes. Therefore, if one is interested in scalping, finding these bars may be just the thing, and VSA may be everything he's ever hoped for. However, if he's looking for something that points to larger moves, VSA may not be quite up his alley, since that larger move depends on features that are not quite so easy to define, such as "background", and from there, it's just a step or two to "feel".

 

Therefore, one must evaluate VSA in terms of what it is, or at least in terms of what it has become, and not expect it to be what it isn't and can't be. Bearbull has done a nice job of highlighting the difficulties that those who are looking for more than a few ticks or points are going to face, particularly those who lack the displine to stop themselves out, much less SAR, when the trade does not move in the desired direction.

Edited May 15, 2008 by mister ed
make clear reason posts were moved

[mister ed 10]

Thanks Db - I don't want to get into a protracted discussion about VSA and "what it is, or at least in terms of what it has become, and not expect it to be what it isn't and can't be" (not on this thread anyway) but can I ask what you think of the sort of range expectation you could have from interpreting, for example, a "no demand" (given proper context/background etc.) on various time frames of analysis.

 

For example, if I was using say the 5 minute bar and everything pointed to a downmove (context/background, support/resistance, "no demand" etc., all lined up nicely for me) my expectaions on the ES might be for 3,4,5, whatever points, or even a move down to whatever support I had interpreted on the 5-min bar chart. If, though, I was using an hourly bar and everything pointed to a downmove (context/background, support/resistance, "no demand" etc., all lined up nicely for me) my expectaions on the ES might be for a move of a larger magnitude, maybe 10, 12, whatever, points. In these two examples the magnitude of the profit expectations differ because of the magnitude of the timeframes differing and where you say:

"a "no demand" bar means "no demand" at that time, and that the lower prices that the bar implies may occur for only a couple of bars", then the choice of timeframe chart is going to be a determinant on profit move expectations?

 

So, VSA may be useful for scalping, as you say, but depending on the timeframe may be useful for larger magnitude moves also?

[DbPhoenix 42]

I don't want to get into a protracted discussion of what VSA is or isn't either. But it's important, for newcomers anyway, to understand where an application of VSA is appropriate and where it isn't. To point out that VSA is not necessarily appropriate to every trading application is not necessarily an attack on it.

 

It's easy to understand that a trader who elects to employ an approach that focuses on bars may choose an interval that provides a half-dozen bars per day rather than dozens, or hundreds. But even though he may understand that, for example, an hourly "no demand" bar is an amalgam of all the thousands of trades within it, even down to the tick, and that the "no demand" character of that bar may be more "meaningful" than a 1m "no demand" bar, and further that that bar may imply a larger move than that implied by a shorter-interval "no demand" bar, he must also carry a hell of a lot wider stop with that hourly bar, and he must be at least as specific with the hourly bar as with a shorter-interval bar regarding the conditions for determining whether and when the trade is correct or incorrect.

 

In order to determine whether any of this is "worth it" or not, one must have an internally consistent approach, if not a strategy, complete with a set of explicit and straight-forward rules that can be tested, both backwards and forwards. If the equity curve is not much better than flat, he must wonder if he's fundamentally incapable of interpreting the "background" behind his entries or if his approach and his rules are taking him in the wrong direction.

 

Therefore, yes, one can theoretically assume that the "magnitude of the profit expectations [will] differ because of the magnitude" of the bar intervals. But the gap between theory and application can be exceedingly wide.

[DbPhoenix 42]

If an effort has been made to identify the right support/resistance zones , then price will move from one level to another irrespective of which timeframe chart you are reading, however if one is operating from say a 1min chart , then obviously a no demand or no supply bar can only be employed for scalping.

 

Well, not exactly . Every move, whether trivial or consequential, begins at the tick level. Where one locates S&R is not necessarily dependent on the bar interval, and one needn't be satisfied with tiny profits just because he's using tiny bars.

 

But this has all been addressed before and anyone who's interested can do a search. I only want to point out that scalping is not a necessary consequence of using small-interval bars if one is focused on movement rather than individual bars.