Busy Day Tomorrow

[Art Krantz 10]

Howdy Wasp

 

Yeah, this is a pretty neat joint to hang out in. It houses some very switched on individuals spread right across the field.

 

Much of the content revolves around the important aspects of what drives the market flows. I like the fact that the psychological/emotive credentials are often referred to & discussed on this site, which is good to witness.

 

Some savvy contributors reside over here, & you fella's have brought along Mr Burrow of Phoenix, Firewalker & Gammajammer to add a couple more notches of quality to the totem pole.

 

I'm sure there are others (including yourself) who have decamped this week who will continue to trickle across, & will add to the quality of what is a pretty top grade arena.

 

I for one look forward to welcoming increased activity from you good folks. Unfortunately, time isn't always a great friend, but it's a breath of fresh air to peruse the content on here when time allows.

 

I hope y'all find the place both condusive & enjoyable. Good to have you folks aboard

[firewalker 10]

Having come from 3 years at T2W, I have never read so much useful and informative information in one thread.

 

Ah, you were always more interested in cheap talk rather than trading

 

Some savvy contributors reside over here, & you fella's have brought along Mr Burrow of Phoenix, Firewalker & Gammajammer to add a couple more notches of quality to the totem pole.

 

Wasp & me are probably responsible for the latest "group-exodus" :embarassed:

[milliard 10]

I chose the Jap, Swiss & Aussie on this gig, no other reason than they offered the brighter & clearer views.

 

I see you didn't waste much time elbowing your way in :o

 

At least this place might begin to smell a little sweeter.

[milliard 10]

Wasp & me are probably responsible for the latest "group-exodus" :embarassed:

 

I guess Mr Sharky couldn't raise the contract bonuses to sign you fella's on for another stint huh?

 

I hope Admin have ordered more desks & chairs, looks like the floors about to get busier.

[Sledge 13]

And it can often make life a little easier to arrive at your decision of choice if you got your near side top & bottom access points to hand.

 

They won't all require running & compounding, particularly if price is engaged within tight constraints. You got choices then as to how hard inside a range you wish to play it.

 

Alternatively, if prices are stretching out into a nice technical jog up or down the ladder & price re-visits a previous area of conflict, you can wait see if the handover of money is taking place. You'll often witness very obvious weak hands operating (buying/selling) at precisely the incorrect time.

 

God knows why, but they'll be buying at a previous area of supply & vice versa. If you got these short & long range grids pre-marked, you can begin preparing as price pops back & forth testing for re-engagement.

 

You don't always require to transact the deal via the big timeframe graph, just map it out & trigger the deal off a smaller, more appropriate timeframe if you get a valid buy or sell ticket.

 

You can work through a good few pairings too to whittle down the prime candidates. 4, 8 & 12 hour graphs offer you a calmer work surface to plot your action zones, then it's simply a case of waiting till the party comes to town.

 

And when things get washed out, you got a clear view of where you need to bail out

 

I chose the Jap, Swiss & Aussie on this gig, no other reason than they offered the brighter & clearer views.

 

Jocelyn-

Since their is no "Mouth Gaping Open" Icon Smiley, you'll just have to envision it. Thanks so much for joining in the thread, I am glad you have joined in. Wow! Thanks for what has been the first post of yours that I have read. Hope to hear more about what is in your brain!

Regards,

Aaron

[Jocelyn 10]

You wouldn’t want to see what’s inside my mush of a brain Sledge. God almighty, there must be half the contents of the alco-pops production line swilling around up there. Those cells are definitely running on borrowed time.

 

I’ll steal a leg in here before my other sister (Tessa) arrives, she’ll hate that I sneaked in & bagged a couple brownie points ahead of her :o

 

Lets take a snook at yet another example. There are plenty out there every week. We'll use this grid map on the GY & put a little meat on the bones. It’s not difficult at all to set your stall out & get a run on events, my big sis has offered up a good few insights on here recently.

 

As always, the Daily-240 will give you a little outer edge structure as far as the major grid zones are stacking up (as per the graphs on prev post). Anna-Maria & Andre have covered a good chunk of it already, so it’s variations on a theme to be honest.

 

Once you got the area’s or zones snagged on your radar, it’s simply a case of matching up your favored triggers/set ups & ensuring you’re striking in harmony with your risk management jotter.

 

So, looking at this most recent reaction zone on the Daily graph (red border @ 200.0) ideally you want to be buying from those selling into a level where demand exceeds supply. We got a good idea this stacks up from the immediate zone of previous activity to the left on & around mid April.

 

Price formed another higher low leg having been pitched from a level where supply overwhelmed demand (most recent green grid).

 

We’re in limbo on this pair at the moment, inside range crosscurrents, but you still got pretty clear lines of engagement to execute should an opportunity present itself according to your strategy model.

 

Inexperienced or novice punters will usually attempt to execute way too late or jump on a fast moving train (generally as prices are approaching supply-demand camps). Those are the sweethearts you want to be transacting business with, & by structuring your trades where previous area’s of imbalance have changed hands, you’re increasing your chances of obtaining value whilst minimizing risk.

 

You’ve got clear upper-lower boundaries to work with & more importantly, you can readily & calmly assess when to cash in your hand if events turn sour. You can also manage this activity even if you’re executing via a micro timeframe (1-5-10min frame), because you’re operating from a well structured & defined template.

 

The outlying (marked) levels on this Daily GY graph, as well as the other highlighted zones on the previous posts graphs, can remain there until prices hustle them again. Those are my personal interest levels & they're the zones I'll be honing in on to pick off any weak links in the price chain.

 

Right, that's enough from me for one day - time to go dancin & drinkin!!

[mister ed 10]

Some absolute gems in there and I'm just going to read it all again and see if there's much/anything I can even add

 

 

Have to agree with you Wasp - this is a fantastic thread. It has been carried along by Milliard, Anna-Marie & Art (and Sledge for getting the ball rolling), and thanks to their great work is now attracting more fine contributors.

[Kiwi 16]

Yes, My thanks to the posters too - both answers and questions.

 

I'm a good sub-5min index AsiaPac Futures trader looking to add longer term forex to my game and I appreciate the information in this thread. Thanks guys. Much appreciated.

 

One question:

In your search for good opportunities and strong vs weak pairs to trade which currencies do you look at and which currencies do you discount? Any insights as to why would be greatly appreciated too

[Art Krantz 10]

One question:

In your search for good opportunities and strong vs weak pairs to trade which currencies do you look at and which currencies do you discount? Any insights as to why would be greatly appreciated too

 

 

Thank you very much indeed Kiwi & mister ed for your kind references.

 

Kiwi;

 

One of my regular (technical) port of calls is to the Dollar Index to see what that’s up to. It’ll offer a snapshot of $ weakness v/s strength. You might then choose to cherry pick your candidate of choice if it's playing ball & quickly then proceed to leaf through the appropriate pairs to adjudge a likely opportunity.

 

For instance, if the buck is weak v/s the basket, I’d want to be homing in on the candidate which is displaying the dominant & aggressive behaviour patterns.

 

If it’s the Pound, then I’ll trail through the cross instruments associated with the Pound to locate whether it’s also a Pound story (of strength) or exclusive to the buck.

 

I’m always on the hunt for value v/s risk. I want an easy life wherever possible. If the buck is mired in heavy range traffic, then I’ll look outside for maybe a decent cross opportunity.

 

Perhaps sniff out a Yen (v/s it’s crosses) or CAD (v/s it’s crosses) or Swiss (v/s it’s crosses) maybe an Aussie (v/s it’s crosses) story.

 

It’s not always just about the U.S Dollar. There’s a big wide world going on out there & all these Central Banks & treasury houses have their own internal agenda’s to juggle.

 

I like to trawl through my pairs on a regular basis & pick out minor & major trend candidates setting up. I don’t exclude anything.

 

I’m looking for consolidation behaviour, potential breakout candidates & possible reversal (into supply-demand grid territory) potential. Basically any area or zone which I determine is displaying a potential imbalance opportunity.

 

I realize fundamental information & newswire chatter isn’t everyone’s favorite biscuit, but we all work that ticket too. You can pick up some very good reasonings behind near term directional flows via that route, especially the validity of a particular level or zone of interest (strength of bid/offer currents etc).

 

To me, it’s a complimentary balance of views. I don’t give either one (techs or fundies) priority, rather try to see each sides point of view & use that info to offer me an edge at that specific time.

 

Trading is all about separating the wheat from the chaff. It’s a constant merry-go-round which changes by the hour. I try not to hold opinions or fall in love with a pair.

 

I’ll just as soon stop & reverse or scratch a trade which has soaked up a good few hours of analysis if the reasons for taking a view are no longer valid.

 

I hope that helps some. I also hope some of our newer friends begin to add their 2 cents into the pot

[Kiwi 16]

Thanks Art,

 

Do you guys look at thing like the kiwi, the norwegian kroner, zloty etc etc, or just the biggies? I ask because I was setting up a group to look at for a 4/24hr strategy and was going to use:

 

eu, gu, au, us, uj, ej, gj and uc (s=swiss franc, c=cad)

 

The major change that I've taken from this thread is to include all the crosses and cherry pick the current best opportunities. When you read the forex specific boards there is a lot of discussion about what I would consider very minor currencies and I have been questioning my choice to stick with the bigger liquid options.

[Art Krantz 10]

Depending on your specific strategy models, I’m sure you’ll unearth your fair share of opportunities stringing your line across those candidates.

 

We don’t work outside of the more popular pairs to be honest Kiwi. Not because of anything detrimental, simply because we can spot, work on & benefit from endless opportunities where the liquidity & participation is generally adequate for our needs.

 

We make most of our money on the back of the ill-informed & naïve herd mentality at consistent levels of conflict. In other words, where folks buy when they ought to selling & sell where they ought to be buying. There’s a whole industry generating sack fulls of wonga based around that one simple concept :o

 

It therefore makes sense to focus on those instruments where “the herd” are likely to congregate & transact their regular business.

 

If you’re a competent, successful micro timeframe player on your current array of instruments, then I doubt you’ll find life too daunting or difficult as you cast your net into the FX sea.

 

The principles of supply-demand…support-resistance & common sense patience & discipline aren’t exclusive to one asset class as far as I’m aware?

 

Just try everything out & see for yourself what works best for you my friend.

[milliard 10]

.....& by structuring your trades where previous area’s of imbalance have changed hands, you’re increasing your chances of obtaining value whilst minimizing risk.

 

You’ve got clear upper-lower boundaries to work with & more importantly, you can readily & calmly assess when to cash in your hand if events turn sour. You can also manage this activity even if you’re executing via a micro timeframe (1-5-10min frame), because you’re operating from a well structured & defined template.

 

Good post missy.

 

The above price levels, area's & zones you make mention to would benefit those traders who like to incorporate indicator divergence aids to assist in their trade development & management.

 

They'd undoubtedly experience increased profit returns on their stakes if they focused on lining up their preferred div triggers at the key reaction points on the tech graph.

 

If you can also use the directional bias or short-term flows to your advantage if one exists, then you really begin to ramp up the profit v/s loss potential of the deal.

 

Quality of execution over quantity (risky, unecessary multi-round trips) definitely holds the aces when determining value v/s risk on the micro timeframe map.

[Sledge 13]

As always, the Daily-240 will give you a little outer edge structure as far as the major grid zones are stacking up (as per the graphs on prev post). Anna-Maria & Andre have covered a good chunk of it already, so it’s variations on a theme to be honest.

 

I think this is wonderful- it is the repetition of the information in a live setting that reinforces the learning (for me anyway) So Thank you for your "take" on it, it helps tremedously for all reading the thread.

 

Once you got the area’s or zones snagged on your radar, it’s simply a case of matching up your favored triggers/set ups & ensuring you’re striking in harmony with your risk management jotter.

 

So, looking at this most recent reaction zone on the Daily graph (red border @ 200.0) ideally you want to be buying from those selling into a level where demand exceeds supply. We got a good idea this stacks up from the immediate zone of previous activity to the left on & around mid April.

 

Price formed another higher low leg having been pitched from a level where supply overwhelmed demand (most recent green grid).

 

Very nice representation of your "Zones"

 

Inexperienced or novice punters will usually attempt to execute way too late or jump on a fast moving train (generally as prices are approaching supply-demand camps). Those are the sweethearts you want to be transacting business with, & by structuring your trades where previous area’s of imbalance have changed hands, you’re increasing your chances of obtaining value whilst minimizing risk.

 

Ahh yes the herd, one thing we all hope to not be a part of :o

Thank you again for your take, it is most interesting that the end goal and results are the same, and yet the way it is viewed in one individuals head vs. another is different. When YOU personally look for your trades, you see the same "zones" but in your head you are seeing the set-up in your brain slightly different graphically. Very nice. Very nice indeed!

Aaron

[Sledge 13]

We make most of our money on the back of the ill-informed & naïve herd mentality at consistent levels of conflict. In other words, where folks buy when they ought to selling & sell where they ought to be buying. There’s a whole industry generating sack fulls of wonga based around that one simple concept :o

 

It therefore makes sense to focus on those instruments where “the herd” are likely to congregate & transact their regular business.

 

 

Art-

I just have to smile at this post. "Sack fulls of Wonga" I think I'll adopt that phrase into my daily vocabulary! :o

 

To anyone out there who thought when Tom Williams said nearly the same thing and that he was some "crazy old man" There it is- in black and white- blunt honest truth!

 

Well put sir!

Aaron

[Sledge 13]

Once you got the area’s or zones snagged on your radar, it’s simply a case of matching up your favored triggers/set ups & ensuring you’re striking in harmony with your risk management jotter.

 

My editing window closed on me. One other question/request. Love the "trigger bar" notations on your analysis (Outside bar etc.) If you feel comfortable, I would love to see more of these when you see fit on your charts.

Thanks!

Aaron

[GammaJammer 10]

We don’t work outside of the more popular pairs to be honest Kiwi. Not because of anything detrimental, simply because we can spot, work on & benefit from endless opportunities where the liquidity & participation is generally adequate for our needs.

 

And of course the further you step off the (G3 / G7) beaten path, the more beholden you are to your supply of decent flow information that isn't always easy to come by. I personally don't always know what local bond traders in Poland are up to. Yet they and other similar players often are key drivers of the zloty on an intraday basis.

 

Just an example, but hopefully you get my drift. Not a reason not to trade E.M. currencies, but you just need to know what you're doing (and maybe have larger pockets on occasion).

 

My $0.02

 

GJ

[wasp 10]

A nice bit of simple technical play straight from the textbook on the EURJPY...

[Jocelyn 10]

One other question/request. Love the "trigger bar" notations on your analysis (Outside bar etc.) If you feel comfortable, I would love to see more of these when you see fit on your charts.

 

Hey Aaron

 

Glad you like it. It's really a very basic, throw away kinda trigger to be honest. I was a little embarrassed to highlight it actually, it's such a like "oh come on baby" kind of set up

 

You can spot them & simply pick them out of the water all day long across the multi-pair activity. As with any trigger, it's not what you use but where you use it

 

Another favorite is the 1 & 2 bar reversal, especially via your 60 or 240 reference. Again, as prices jostle & hustle these key turn zones, an aggressive hourly bar (doji with an inside bar...or hammer + doji turn) can jump start a decent run back up/down the price ladder. Marry up these levels with multi-timeframe analysis & you got yourself a cute little box of tricks when opportunity comes knockin.

 

I used to enjoy playing with a little Bollinger Band/CCi combo on the 15m frame as prices lunged or climaxed & faded off a key round number or previous imbalance zone. That little set-up often manifests itself via an inside bar kick by the very virtue of the level, activity & aggression of participation.

 

There were 2 cool plays earlier today on the Cable & Euro via that route as prices faded off their respective round number resistance barriers. I'll try haul up the examples later when I can get a screen.

 

There are bucket loads of triggers out there to engage. Sure, they got to be matched with your aims & style, but you can generally adapt anything to suit as long as you got a decent framework to slot them into.

[Jocelyn 10]

And of course the further you step off the (G3 / G7) beaten path, the more beholden you are to your supply of decent flow information that isn't always easy to come by.

 

You got that right Mister.

 

Information & familiarity of your patch are good bed partners.

 

That's a pretty cool nick you got there btw

[GammaJammer 10]

EUR/JPY price action (or lack of it) pretty unusual given the moves in the greenback against all majors. Sure it's been a model driven, dollar denominated start to NY trading and the week, but still, there's usually a cross play in there when the dollar's moving around, even if it's just 50 points up and down. No-one told EUR/CHF it's just a dollar move for example.

 

A few dollar sellers are starting to emerge at these levels right now (1.5500/10 eur/usd, 1.0540/50 usd/chf). I'm wondering if EUR/AUD long from here (ard 1.6290) might be an interesting shout. Any thoughts?

 

GJ

[GammaJammer 10]

You got that right Mister.

 

Information & familiarity of your patch are good bed partners.

 

That's a pretty cool nick you got there btw

 

Thanks - options related, and a reminder to me of a painful lesson I learned in my early days on a spot desk. Namely, sometimes the best advice is 'Don't think, just trade!'

[Sledge 13]

Hey Aaron

 

Glad you like it. It's really a very basic, throw away kinda trigger to be honest. I was a little embarrassed to highlight it actually, it's such a like "oh come on baby" kind of set up

 

You can spot them & simply pick them out of the water all day long across the multi-pair activity. As with any trigger, it's not what you use but where you use it

 

Another favorite is the 1 & 2 bar reversal, especially via your 60 or 240 reference. Again, as prices jostle & hustle these key turn zones, an aggressive hourly bar (doji with an inside bar...or hammer + doji turn) can jump start a decent run back up/down the price ladder. Marry up these levels with multi-timeframe analysis & you got yourself a cute little box of tricks when opportunity comes knockin.

 

 

Jocelyn-

Heh, Well I wouldn't be embarrassed in the least. As I have let on to some of your co-workers--To you, doing this day in, and day-out, it probably seems elementary to you. But for some of the folks who have not ever been able to sit in the chair that you folks do- it is a very nice way for us to see how your minds work. I.E. What is it that the day-in, day-out trader who has their arse on the line every single day have to see in order to say "oh come on baby" to enter.

 

So I personally appreciate seeing the thought process or the "trigger"

Aaron

[Jocelyn 10]

I'm wondering if EUR/AUD long from here (ard 1.6290) might be an interesting shout. Any thoughts?

 

It’s been dire right from the off (apart from the pops off the top on Eu & Cable). Andre’s (milliard) on the Jap thru 103.90 as it yet again bounced that congestion area from back in May. Apart from that it’s a non-event day here.

 

I don’t really like the look of that EU/AUD long Gamma. Those prev 2 daily bars are angry looking critters. Seems like they want to see the color of those underside stops to me.

 

I’d prefer to see a little higher low block building (at least via the 15/30m) exercise going on with that pair before committing, but that’s just me.

 

That’s a nasty looking hourly descent there don’t you think?

[Jocelyn 10]

 

A few dollar sellers are starting to emerge at these levels right now (1.5500/10 eur/usd, 1.0540/50 usd/chf).

 

Anna-Maria reckons real money (asset mngrs) $ buyers started sniffing earlier as prices backed off the highs.

 

Time to sell $$'s again then huh :o

[Jocelyn 10]

 

To you, doing this day in, and day-out, it probably seems elementary to you.

 

But for some of the folks who have not ever been able to sit in the chair that you folks do- it is a very nice way for us to see how your minds work.

 

Let you in on a little secret. I got 3 maybe 4 hardline technical set ups - period. To be honest anyone could make a very good living off 2 if you use them correctly.

 

We got friends & family who sit at home with a 3-4 screen combo...couple Grade A set ups & their favorite handful of pairs.

 

They spend most of their time sitting on their hands. Couple times during the week along comes a sweet little thang & they hop on it.

 

If it dies, they get the hell out & wait for the next one. If it don't, they run the son of a bitch as long as they can & hop off again.

 

It's mostly 60 & 240m template signals with a 15m for picking off the cherries.

 

The chair is irrelevant. It's what you do when you're sat in that counts, & that chair can be in any place you like

 

Like our Poppa often reminds us: "in this business less often = more"