Busy Day Tomorrow

[torero 10]

I see where you're pointing at, thanks, AM.

 

I had my stops taken out on that spike and had to make a re-entry on EURJPY. Don't mind as I had the guts and conviction that tell me trend wasn't finished and was rewarded for it (I actually add more positions it made another pullback after that spike). Not a bad ride, even though it was short. I'm amazed GBPJPY climb 400 pips today. I totally missed that pullback to 204.1 after the breakout from previous night.

[Art Krantz 10]

I had my stops taken out on that spike and had to make a re-entry on EURJPY.

 

(I actually add more positions it made another pullback after that spike). Not a bad ride, even though it was short.

 

Yes, it slipped down sniffing out lazy trailers. Didn't do a very good job of it though as most of the (trailing stops) damage was a little farther back beyond 162.50.

 

I guess you compounded your position at the stage on the graph below? Sensible trade, nice play

 

They got 165 in their sights to test tough upside supply stepped to 166.50, with layered stops back to interim defense @ 163.25 back to the b/o zone @ 161.50.

[torero 10]

Thanks AK.

 

My first position was 162.23 after I got stopped out (had a tight stop), then i took another at 162.6 when it found support around .51. Usually it's the sweet spot for me (2nd entry) and load up 2x the original position. I thought there may have been another pullback after this but I wasn't sure so I got out since momentum seemed to petered out.

 

There is consolidation now and possibly there maybe be more upmove, but not going to wait for it as it's already TGIF!

Edited April 18, 2008 by torero

[torero 10]

I don't know if you noticed as I just noticed, the dang long bottom shadow has disappeared! It was supposed to look like yours. The bar just before the green arrow on the left. Somehow historical data is just plain dubious. Don't know who's to blame the feed provider or the SW. If someone had a position and walked away and come back to see he's stopped out, he'd never know what happened. Geez.

[Art Krantz 10]

My first position was 162.23 after I got stopped out (had a tight stop), then i took another at 162.6 when it found support around .51.

 

Oh, ok I gotcha. I see where you're at now!

 

That's an even better job then huh? Nice trading there!

 

Yeah, it's got legs today. They're intent on running this, but then the $/Jap has got it's wings into NY & those boys will tear it up for sure with all that stop activity building up atop the big b/o zone.

 

Data can be erratic for sure, & as you alluded to, it's down to the firm processing the lines.

 

Anna-Maria & a few others observe the graphs every now & again, but our activity is a little bit slower than yours, so we're not so fussed about the micro action.

 

Appears like you & one or two others on here have certainly got it taped though regards the micro technical graph geography. Mighty impressive.

 

If it shoves regular $$'s into your checking a/c, then that's all that matters huh?

[torero 10]

Correction! it was 163.23 my first entry, not 162.23 (my bad). This gets everyone confused when numbers and charts don't coincide.

 

Since I'm just a small fry, smaller timeframes suit me just fine. Although I hope to be looking to trade from 240-min frame sometime in the future and will be looking for some pointers from your crew from that moment on.

 

Despite the smaller timeframe, my strategy don't call for too many trades, 2-5 trades a week so I'm a screen couch potato rest of the time. :missy: Only 1-2 good trade comes along a week really and when it finally does move, I'll be sure to compound the mo-fo to make up for the lack of overtrading

[torero 10]

I gotta a quick question regarding news. There is a list of news for the week and some are rated hot, red hot, and cold turkeys according to how much they affect the prices.

 

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

 

I noticed some do make the market jump while others just fizz out on its own (despite being red hot). Do you follow these too or are they just for retailing suckers like us? I ask this because at times the charts tell me to take the trade but I hesitate due to the impending news, then nada, it sits there and does as I had suspected and I eventually miss my entry. Other times I ignore the news and take the trade anyway and do get some nice results. It's hit and miss I take it.

[milliard 10]

Despite the smaller timeframe, my strategy don't call for too many trades, 2-5 trades a week.....Only 1-2 good trades come along a week really and when it finally does move, I'll be sure to compound the mo-fo to make up for the lack of overtrading

 

Smart thinking Batman.

 

When you sit back & really look at it, you got yourself the Pound/Yen with an average daily range of 280-300 pips.

The Eur/Yen tracks back & forth between 150-200 most days

& bringing up the rear of the three which you quite often refer to; the Cable, that one prints in the 150-180 range of late. That’s a lot of ball park to pitch your strike.

 

As you’re well aware, these instruments behave pretty good on & around their respective support & resistance levels. You got decent supply-demand markers & the plethora of tech & fundamental info available to the retail sector nowadays is on the up.

 

Get yourself a well drilled set-up or two & a couple reliable triggers & you’re good to go.

 

Do what the savvy players do.

 

Wait patiently for the Grade A opportunities...get in on a decent risk strike, let her find her feet & compound the crap out of it.

 

Makes sense? to add positions to a momentum move when the aggressive specs & real movers & shakers are onboard (such as now).

[torero 10]

I see things are warming up to the upside more than I'm used to seeing. But I never take my work home with me for the weekends despite knowing gaps are rare (but it's been jumpy last few weeks), I just want to a string-free conscience-free weekends and enter the battle another week with a clean slate. You higher timeframe guys hold them over the weekends, I can see the advantages.

 

So Andre, what's your view on my question about news and their effects on the market? Is it even relevant how it's ranked? I know you guys pull out before interest rate and NFP numbers but are the other type of news even concern you guys?

[milliard 10]

I gotta a quick question regarding news. There is a list of news for the week and some are rated hot, red hot, and cold turkeys according to how much they affect the prices.

 

Do you follow these too

 

I ask this because at times the charts tell me to take the trade but I hesitate due to the impending news, then nada, it sits there and does as I had suspected and I eventually miss my entry.

 

We're aware of whats printing & when, for sure. The only time we'll give it the time of day is if it's a real grizzly item such as the key inflation data, interest rate news or those pesky, irritating payroll prints. And that's only if we're looking to get aboard a particular pair when the news item is due out of the tape.

 

Other than that, no we're not in the least bit interested in the data prints. But then, we don't do our business on micro timeframes, so it doesn't concern us so much.

 

We'll have orders waiting to fire off at certain junctions on route, & if the data compliments the current trend & picks up the order, then cool....if not & we have to wait a couple more days for a rogue print to work itself thru the pipes, then so be it. It rarely usurps the long range trend anyway.

 

Most of all that stuff is subject to revisions anyhow, so the actual print gets blurred in amongst the re-runs & revisions. It's the prior & post reaction to the news which spurs the fast money though, I think you'll find.

 

We're not by any means unique either. Most of the regular contacts we speak to are pretty ambivalent towards data releases. But then, they also operate via the longer range template.

[Anna-Maria 10]

You sure cornered him at the right time today torero - he's got half a pub of some disgustingly colored liquid mishing his brain structure to pulp. Ewwww

 

When you're done distributing your pearls left & right mister, you got a bar bill to top up. Move it!

 

Have yourselves a fab weekend break fella's, hope your week paid a wage - catch y'all later.

[Sledge 13]

The range tiers have certainly worked through the rolling year with easy access markers. This next 2nd to 2nd quarter could well require a lower tier insert before too long me thinks.

 

Looks like it’s setting up for a fire fight back at the big daddy 1.94 zone.

 

Those closing daily lower tops don’t make for a good smoke signal at all. Best get your Bull armour out & clean her down Andre, you ole boys might be in for a skirmish or two at the next full moon!!

 

Art-

I know this is far back in the thread, but it has stuck with me when I looked at these charts. Am I correct in stating that at your major levels you are drawing the S&R lines right through where the close of one bar and the next open bar forms- regardless of say a down bars "tail" or top reversal bar's "wick" is?

 

If so this is a huge lesson for me. It is logical, to say the least. I think darn near everyone I have ever seen or tried to learn from would put that horizontal line at the bottom of that "tail" or the top of that "wick"

 

Most appreciated if you could let me know if I interpreted your S&R lines correctly.

Sledge

[torero 10]

Sledge, I draw both, at least for lower timeframe use anyway, maybe folks trading 240-min and above look at open/close prices and not so much on tails (I assume these are overreacting emotional bunches with stops being hit). I use the tails to keep in mind the brokers sweeping the stops and move it beyond these tails to avoid getting swept in too.

[Art Krantz 10]

Art-

Am I correct in stating that at your major levels you are drawing the S&R lines right through where the close of one bar and the next open bar forms- regardless of say a down bars "tail" or top reversal bar's "wick" is?

 

Most appreciated if you could let me know if I interpreted your S&R lines correctly.

 

I look for area’s of activity which have responded to & resulted in price vibration Sledge. If a line chart picks it up or it’s best represented via the extremes on a bar chart then it makes no odds to be honest. As long as I can locate it & plot it on the radar, that’s good enough for me.

 

Never exclude any option (line or bar) when observing your hot zones.

 

I’m essentially seeking out confirmation of probable 2 way stop activity. What I do with that information when price arrives there, is wholly dependant upon the structure of the price behaviour at the time & what’s driving it.

 

Quite often the gap between the close/open & the extremes of a cluster of bars on & around a key s&r level will offer me a channel of interest in which most of the order flow will begin to intensify & react.

 

To me, support & resistance (supply-demand) isn’t represented by a singular line. The general vicinity which houses each-way traffic is always layered. Strong at the immediate edge of the transactional flow (usually 10-25 pips either side of a round number or well lit level), where the heavy offers will reside at the ceiling…..bids at the floor.

 

I’m only really interested if this repetative behaviour takes place in & around the area’s I’ve earmarked. I’m also very interested in the behaviour of price as it pops up/down to one of those area’s of interest & backs away.

 

Where it rests & how it plays out will usually tell me a lot about the potential of the level & whose beginning to flex their muscle.

 

 

.

[Sledge 13]

Art-

WOW, what a post! THANK YOU! That is an unbelievably in-depth answer to my question!

 

So in essence, folks in your boat really are watching Price Action at certain predetermined S&R levels and the reaction to said price action in say a 25-30 pip range (give or take dependant upon the circumstances) Yes?

 

Thank you sir!

Sledge

[Art Krantz 10]

So in essence, folks in your boat really are watching Price Action at certain predetermined S&R levels and the reaction to said price action in say a 25-30 pip range (give or take dependant upon the circumstances) Yes?

 

You bet we are. Why would be any different to anyone else? We might have a different view of the landscape to you, but it doesn't necessarily make our templates right & yours wrong. We just got different aims & objectives to you is all.

 

Listen, a level is a level is a level. I see 152.0 thru 52.80 on my long range grid as a potential high value ticket north for an aggressive compound trip. I also view the southbound ticket off the 160.0 thru 61.50 ceiling channel as either a profit booking-encashment opportunity and/or a flip short play.

 

But the level or zone is also an opportunity for the fast money to hustle their $$'s too. If you're a candle watcher, a vsa slave, a pattern junkie or an indicator druggie you got a previous zone of activity which has resulted in some sort of reactionary play, yeah?

 

Doesn't really matter (to all extents) how the level is engaged or by what means, just that the savvy players recognize the fact it's played ball before & is maybe worth zooming in on your radar for a closer look. The various methods one chooses to engineer the entry & trade management can then be cranked up & considered.

 

It might not offer you sufficient risk to climb aboard. Who knows, but I'd much rather be eyeballing & working out my (risk) odds from a level such as this than getting mired & tangled up in no-mans land.

 

Do you really wanna run your race with all the uninformed, clueless gamblers, chasing their tails inside an obvious action zone? I don't think so. That's where the patience & discipline part of the deal enters the equasion.

 

I'll try offer an example here of what I mean. I've used the candle as my choice this time as it appears a favorite of folks here. The lower pitch viewed from both the 240 & 15 offer similar trigger alarms, yeah?

 

Like I say, if you can pitch your odds (risk) to a worthwhile calc & you got upside/downside elbow room, then you're good to trot. How you manage the gig & what kind of targets (if that's the way you operate) you slug for are obviously down to you.

 

Ok, I come in early today to get some work done, I best get to it.

[Sledge 13]

Art-

I'm friggin speachless- and I talk A LOT! :o

 

The only thing I can comment after offering you extreme thanks is one line in your post:

"Why would we be any different to anyone else?"

 

The funny thing is- there are a lot of folks who don't get it and don't try to (i.e. the gamblers you spoke of) Some of the folks who DO attempt to understand how the markets work- up until some of these posts always thought this may be true- but never had someone who captain's an Oil Tanker on a daily basis- confirm it.

 

You just took this from an educated guess or a theory to "Yup, there it is, it was said by someone who really knows what the heck goes on- from someone who sits the trenches daily!"

 

Who knew this thread would lead to such wonderful and open discussions that would sharpen my trading skills like a Ginsu!

I want to publicly Thank Torero for making one simple observation that has lead us to where we are 7 pages later: "Busy Day Tomorrow" Busy Indeed!

 

Thank you Art, I know I'm open to more education and am MOST appreciative!

Sledge

Edited April 20, 2008 by Sledge

[torero 10]

Yeah I used to use patterns but I find that S/R play out better than pattern for currencies. Patterns still make sense in stocks and eminis (contrasts lie in 24-hr vs market hours instruments?). If you go back to some of Anna-Marie's (trader formerly known as Texx ... or Prince...ss --couldn't help myself. hee hee), she uses 78% fibonacci as are of possible reversal, that's nugget in itself.

 

I'm glad you found the thread useful but the crux of the work comes from folks AK, AM, and Andre and cowpip too.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Arty would be the first to tell you that we’re certainly not educators Sledge.

 

What we do wouldn’t fill a class or seminar for longer than 30 minutes :o

 

There are folks in this industry wired tighter into that box than the likes of us.

 

The basis of what we do isn’t very complicated to fathom at all, & definitely not rocket science. Sure, we might have access to information streams which the average retailer doesn’t, but that in no way guarantees we’ll stay ahead of the curve.

 

It's nice to have, but not particularly essential to generating consistant profits.

 

We specialize in a small chunk of a market & merely do the same thing over & over, based upon our collective knowledge & experience.

 

Everyone here are singing from the same hymn sheet where price action is concerned however.

 

It's a direct result & consequence of trader psychology Get a handle on that & you can understand better how these key levels are orchestrated by the folks who really push this FX gig up & down the ladder.

 

We indentify levels & area’s on the map where we know certain groups of players are likely to become active. It’s not difficult to locate these levels, the footprints are big enough to spot.

 

Once you find the levels & they hold up to inspection, you require a set of tools to get to work on them.

 

They’re either reversal tools or continuation tools.

 

Like he said in an earlier post; concentrate, focus & begin to observe carefully the behaviour of price action as it approaches, & backs away from these levels. That will tell you a whole lot about the psychology of the players who are working there.

 

Once we’ve managed to average or job into a core position, we can then get to work & begin compounding it from a position of strength (value).

 

But you absolutely got to possess a plan.

 

You have to know where you’re looking to engage & why. You must have an objective (short or mid term, whatever your preference) & you definitely need to know where the next level of potential conflict (for you) is at, so you can prepare for an each-way option.

 

As long as you know where price has come from & where it’s likely destination lies (both for you & against you), then you got options. All you got to decide then is whether the level you intend executing from fits your risk profile & offers sufficient value for your stake money.

 

Pick up where Arty left off with a couple more charts, & you can easily see the kind of road map we follow & where we adjudge the likely reaction levels.

 

No-one ever knows for sure how price is going to interact with a level when they pull the trigger, but there are 3 things we’re absolutely certain of when stepping up:

 

1) Where we’re going to bail if the trade begins to get washed out.

 

2) Where & why we’re going to aggressively add (compound) more fuel to the trade when it does start to rip.

 

3) When we’re going to peel off or fully encash based on our trusty old reversal or exhaustion signals.

 

They’re the same reasons & set-ups we’ve always used & will continue to use because they’re based around the psychology of market participants. And that is what drives order flow every second of every day.

 

 

ps: I see you're still observing that cool 78.6% assistor then torero good on ya!

 

another trusty old friend out there in the theatre of war which is the markets

[Sledge 13]

Anna-

Oh you have no idea the education you folks are providing. To you and the crew, this is probably pretty "common sense stuff" because by now it is all second nature with your background. Just as it is second nature to me to build you a stunning trade show display and pull off a profitable show (my background and consulting business) For me that is easy- but for my clients- it isn't (that is why I get to be paid to teach them)

 

For your enlightemnent of us, I am truly grateful!

Sledge

[Anna-Maria 10]

Well, if it helps or assists in developing a couple more idea's to add to your pot then I guess it's worthwhile

 

There's 3 charts missing from my last post which should have been included. I guess the server maintenance unseated them?!

 

Anyhow, I'll try slinging them up again in here as I'm unable to edit that prev post.

 

Just offers a taste of how we view the playing field & assess potential forward issues. All simple, common sense stuff really.

[Sledge 13]

3) When we’re going to peel off or fully encash based on our trusty old reversal or exhaustion signals.

 

Anna-

I had another thought after I re-read your post. Andre had stated that he and company don't use volume to spot exhaustion (or anythng else for that matter.) Do you then focus soley on the formation of the bar or bars in the, for lack of a better term- S&R neighborhood?

 

The most common that come to mind would be:

1. Bars with long top "wicks" and close in the middle or low

2. Narrow spread bars either at top of a trend or bottom (maybe you call this at your S&R neighborhood)

3. Bars with long "tails" that close in the middle or high of the bar

 

Any others I may have forgotten?

 

I'm working to look at the "horizon" as Andre pointed out and not focus on say one particular bar- but as you know you tend to see a cluster of bars in a sideways pattern in these S&R zones. So I am working on clarifying in say a 5 bar cluster what that cluster tells me. I think the answer is that you just have to know how to read bars and what they are specifically telling you, as well as when you get 5 bars together- what do they COLLECTIVELY tell you. Correct?

 

Much Thanks- can I take your "non-30 minute seminar" sometime ;-)

Sledge

Edited April 20, 2008 by Sledge
clarification of statements

[Anna-Maria 10]

Andre had stated that he and company don't use volume to spot exhaustion (or anythng else for that matter.) Do you then focus soley on the formation of the bar or bars in the, for lack of a better term- S&R neighborhood?

 

Essentially yes.

 

Area’s where price action has previously reacted to demand or supply will usually house some sort of future vibration when re-visited.

 

That reaction manifests itself by displaying information of market participants activity in the bar or candle. As we’re observing this activity via a 60min, 240min or Daily timeframe, then we’re paying attention to how it plays out as it butts up against our levels of interest.

 

From a candle perspective; doji’s, spinning tops, hammers, engulfing candles, inside/outside candles etc, all offer clues as to the probable (current) psychology of the market at these tiered levels up & down the ladder.

 

Match that up with the chatter, fundamentals, specific order flow flavors of the day etc & you begin to build up a picture of the state of mind that the market finds itself in.

 

Most of the time this info (often conflicting as one camp absorbs & overwhelms the other) can take a while to shake itself out, which is another reason we prefer to leg in & out via the slightly longer timeframes.

 

We miss all the tight turns & bustle at the edge of these range & trend barriers, but we're not interested in picking tops & bottoms or being first off the grid. We're happy enough with the chunk in the middle or the meat of a move.

[torero 10]

I see we're all taking our Sunday at the park eh?

[Sledge 13]

We miss all the tight turns & bustle at the edge of these range & trend barriers, but we're not interested in picking tops & bottoms or being first off the grid. We're happy enough with the chunk in the middle or the meat of a move.

 

My thought exactly. Thank you again for another stellar post!

Sledge