Busy Day Tomorrow

[Guest forsearch]

FX market turnover soars

 

Category: Industry news

Tags: cable, eur/usd, usd/yen

 

The Foreign Exchange market continues to thrive with UK average daily turnover up to $1.82 trillion in the six months to April. This represents a rise of 54% from a year earlier. All of the major currencies lost maket share as emerging market activity increased. The most heavily traded currency pair was Euro/dollar with 29% of total turnover, followed some way in the distance by Cable at 12% and Dollar/Yen at 11%. Obviously this increase in volume should mean that you get tighter spreads, increased depth and better stops from now on OK ?

 

 

 

Good to see the important things aren't being affected!

 

Here's an official copy of the latest FX Survey directly from the Bank of England, released yesterday.

 

Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee, Semi-Annual FX Turnover Survey

[GammaJammer 10]

Ah - all becomes clear now.

[cowpip 10]

Put on your rain slickers- the slaughter awaits!

 

Who is about to be slaughtered? I may want tickets.

[pathfinder62 10]

Re:FX Survey Bank of England

 

Foresearch, thank you a ton and 3/4. Do the other "Majors", i.e. Japan, US, Aussies, put out similar information?? If so, any idea where to find it?

 

Thanks again for the info....pathfinder62 (Tom)

[Guest forsearch]

Re:FX Survey Bank of England

 

Foresearch, thank you a ton and 3/4. Do the other "Majors", i.e. Japan, US, Aussies, put out similar information?? If so, any idea where to find it?

 

Thanks again for the info....pathfinder62 (Tom)

 

Yes. Look on page 2 of the Survey and you'll find the same references for the US Fed (New York), Canada, Australia, and Singapore.

 

Similar semi-annual surveys were also conducted in April 2008 for the New York market by the New York Foreign Exchange Committee; for the Singapore market by the Singapore Foreign Exchange Market Committee; for the Canadian market by the Canadian Foreign Exchange Committee; and for the Australian market by the Australian Foreign Exchange Committee respectively.

[pathfinder62 10]

Thank you for the fast response. This board and all of you are very helpful. Hopefully, in the next few weeks I will be able to add some insight/information for the group.

 

Thanks again, Forsearch............

[GammaJammer 10]

The big, widely respected one is the BIS one, but that's only triennial.

 

GJ

[Guest forsearch]

The big, widely respected one is the BIS one, but that's only triennial.

 

GJ

 

Here's the BIS 78th Annual Report directly from the official Bank of International Settlements website:

 

BIS Report page

 

And a direct link to the full 260 page .pdf of the Report, recently issued on 30 June 2008.

BIS 78th Annual Report

 

-fs

[GammaJammer 10]

Still not the same thing as the triennial one I'm talking about (and indeed it does actually make reference to the last one of these) but interesting stuff nevertheless.

 

GJ

[Guest forsearch]

GJ,

Could you post a link to the "triennial" report you're talking about so everyone is on the same page?

thxs

[GammaJammer 10]

GJ,

Could you post a link to the "triennial" report you're talking about so everyone is on the same page?

thxs

 

http://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx07.htm

 

There you go (this is the one from which people derive the headline $3.2 trillion daily FX market turnover)....

 

regards

 

GJ

[Sledge 13]

I'd like to possibly get this thread going again and further discuss the "Zones" if I may. I have been away for a while and in that time I have taken to reading this entire thread that I printed-- twice.

 

After studying it over and over the "zones" that are discussed have absolutely changed my trading career. All of the information discussed here was a pile of gold, and I could see that it was something very valuable, but could not FULLY wrap my head around- just how amazing this information is.

 

Taking a step back, reading and re-reading these posts has completely opened my eyes to a different perspective of the market, what it means, how it reacts. It was all there in black and white- I just needed to digest all of it in my head and mold it to the timeframes that I personally trade.

 

If I didn't say it enough already I thank Milliard, Art, Anna and the others on UK Crew for the insight they have provided in this thread. It is a wonderful slab of information if someone takes the time to dig into it, read it, understand it and implement it. It has changed the way I trade- without a doubt!

 

Maybe we could have some discussions about these said zones? Items such as:

 

1. Travel from the exhaustion point to the previous zone.

2. Realizing that the last zone above or below you is of most importance

etc.

 

Aaron

[Bobby S 10]

I'd like to possibly get this thread going again and further discuss the "Zones" if I may.

2. Realizing that the last zone above or below you is of most importance

etc.

 

I don’t think any one zone carries more importance than another in the bigger picture. They’re stepping-stones.

They’re dictated purely by order flow, and dependant on the current, dominant order flow bias, and your interaction with the market via the timeframe you choose to operate under, will influence how you play it & apportion risk to your view of the market pulse at that time.

 

Apart from the program/black box trade executions, the majority of daily & weekly rhythm is driven by crowd psychology. Add the intense focus of economic (expectation to actual) data to the mix, & you have a powerful cocktail of revolving emotion doing the rounds out there.

 

One of the primary reasons these zones react so consistently is the fact differing sets of traders ear mark them as possible contact points.

There will be pure price action players at work out there, math based followers (Fib, Elliot etc), simple big figure/round number block traders only concerned when price penetrates & consolidates these key numbers on the chart, exclusive fundamental based participants, order flow observers, breakout traders – the list goes on.

 

You’re going to witness one or two of these highly visible levels & zones interact/react due to the varied tools that the market players utilize to pick their way through all the action. Which way the price eventually breaks will be down to the stack, absorption & attraction of the dominant orders either side of the level. And if you’re a price action player, you’ll trade & manage your risk based on the collective candle/bar representations as they play out.

 

At the end of the day, the candles are merely mirrors of the psychology.

 

You could use any of the pairs as an example on the back of recent events, but the Aussie dollar clearly highlights the points.

There are 4 key regions that stand out from as far back as early 2003 to the present day.

 

 

If you had those clearly identifiable zones marked up on your charts, the natural peak-trough flows & reflected psychology via the price bars would have certainly offered up options to trade around & through those levels as they absorbed the orders, no?

 

The approach to, & resulting behavior around the first of those zones both on the initial break & re-test during late September (daily chart) magnified it as a potentially key zone.

 

 

At each phase of the descent, (& attempted pullback activity) was the trend trader never in danger of wash-out. The price bar visuals (spinning tops/doji's inside-outside bars etc) offered up 'options' to book profits as well as add to the move dependant on your preferred timeframe view.

 

As it approaches those key marked zones, the lower high/lower low gauge is the only one required to position & apportion risk if you're biased short down through the legs.

 

 

And as it reacts off the long range support down at .6320 there are clear upside (same zones as on the trip down) levels to skate around & play your options.

[BlowFish 10]

I'd like to possibly get this thread going again and further discuss the "Zones" if I may. I have been away for a while and in that time I have taken to reading this entire thread that I printed-- twice.

 

Aaron

 

 

Good for you (getting the thread going)! I was late to it, but it became a firm favourite. Mind you it was the personalities as much as anything that made it for me!

[Sledge 13]

Bobby-

WOW- What a post, that is an outstanding representation of the zones and how they play out. Wonderful wonderful post, that really is a nice synopsis of the topic.

 

Do you feel that in your last image that .7015 to .7106- right now that is the zone of focus? I suppose that was my intent of my post saying that longer term ALL the zones are of importance, but for the near term that particular zone is the one I will focus on as important- and be looking to read the price action at that zone:

 

Will it blow through it?

Will it exhaust again and return to the bottom of the chart to re-test supply?

 

As I was told by someone very wise- I'll watch price action "at" and "in" that zone to decipher how it is acting. If it blows through it- time to cash out my shorts. If it shows signs of exhaustion, I add in to my short position.

 

Hopefully, this makes sense and I thank you for your insight!

Aaron

[Anna-Maria 10]

Aaron,

 

He won’t be active on here during normal business hours. He has school to attend & home study work to undertake before his Mom will allow him to strut his stuff. If he’s completed his workload then he can post before heading off in the a.m & again for an hour or so when he’s wrapped his study modules for the day.

 

If you pull up a 60m & 15m combination chart & plot the vibrations off that 6320 floor he put a marker thru what do you see?

 

The next level is/was .7000-20 as you rightly observed, which coincides with yesterdays high zone. What occurred this morning around there?

 

Notice any price action behavior that might have triggered an entry at the base of that p/b?

 

Doesn't matter if it blows straight thru it or not does it? you're either going to have a very definite set-up/trigger to take it on at the pullback or the initial breakout, or the secondary pullback etc.

 

If you think the action is headed on full throttle then you might choose to lob a feeder stake out to test the momentum/flows. If it pulls back & chops away again, you can add to the move. And you can continue to aggregate your position on any future pullback or test of demand.

 

If it fades or washes out, nothing lost - just an opportunity.

 

These markets (under current circumstances) are cooking on risk. You won't get the leisurely opportunities to avail yourself of breakout-pullback entries as often as you would in more orderly market conditions.

 

You need to structure your plan according to the conditions & maybe tweak your money & risk management play to step in & take a swipe at these momentum plays

[Bobby S 10]

Hi Aaron

Thanks for the kind words

I’m not so sure it’s that outstanding, but appreciate the nod.

 

Aussie took a little heat up there yesterday at that previous lower high zone huh?

Looks like it’s getting ahead of itself & washed out some intraday stops on the kickback. Obviously closed well off the highs & dipped in sympathy with commodities, but we’re still hustling this next support-resistance region at 7020 up from that .6320 floor.

 

A little consolidation wouldn’t do it any harm at current levels, & looking around the other majors, they’re either flirting with, or butting their own support-resistance regions.

 

 

Not surprisingly, the difficulty busting through their respective levels are confirmed by taking a look at the $index. Weekly focuses the upline barrier, & the Daily pulls in a couple support levels to pay attention to.

 

Major support for the Dollar resides at that low close doji back at the previous swing high around the 80.20-40 level. It’s continuing to honor the higher high-higher low steps & is so far consolidating it’s own high ground.

 

Least we got one or two neat watch levels to guide us on the radar.

 

 

[milliard 10]

What, you adding child minding services to our ever growing list of duties around here now Krantz?

 

Hey kid, take your teen angst comics & candy wrappers with you next time you park your rear at an empty terminal. And what you been told about betting against dominant trends?!

 

That’s what you get listening to a bunch of wild assed women strutting round in outfits & heels costing more than the entire national debt of Iceland.

[Bobby S 10]

What, you adding child minding services to our ever growing list of duties around here now Krantz?

 

That’s what you get listening to a bunch of wild assed women strutting round in outfits & heels costing more than the entire national debt of Iceland.

 

:o

 

Keep your wig on Andre.

I thought I’d hack into your customer accounts & pop a little short-term bonus into their Xmas box for you.

 

If you cared to drag your hairy butt out of your pit before lunchtime once in a while, maybe you’d catch an odd 'early bird' too

[milliard 10]

My god almighty, not only do we got to contend with cackling, twittering broads sashaying around the joint like it’s some kinda Milan catwalk, but I now got Tudor Jones’ latest apprentice whistling in my ear.

 

All we require now is George W & that other clueless old fart Greenspam to pull up a seat, & we got us a full set.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Aussie took a little heat up there yesterday at that previous lower high zone huh?

Looks like it’s getting ahead of itself & washed out some intraday stops on the kickback.

 

Keatings comments (re; banana republic) over the wires y’day didn’t help the Oz gain a footing up there at all. Asian demand jitters weighing on $AUD too.

 

That big level (.7250-.7320) is certainly a ‘sellers’ hitting zone with the risk on-risk off switch working overtime. Similar theme across the board at respective zones too really.

 

(larger) participants pulling the plug & reducing/cashing out positional size earlier than normal will likely increase volatility into year end as liquidity conditions thin out all the way thru the ranks. It’s becoming soggy & sludgy out there.

 

Early Xmas jollies on the cards folks!! Yaaaay.

 

Hey Andre, re: your "wild assed women" jibe

 

Read & weep my i.q challenged friend & colleague!!

http://www.phoenixvillenews.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=20163129&BRD=1673&PAG=461&dept_id=635495&rfi=6

[Bobby S 10]

That big level (.7250-.7320) is certainly a ‘sellers’ hitting zone with the risk on-risk off switch working overtime. Similar theme across the board at respective zones too really.

 

Appears so yeah. That move down yesterday took it back to close Monday’s opening gap too before easing off in today’s Tokyo trade.

 

Euro popped off a long range (& inside range) s/r zone too, tick boxing your comments re; "across the board reactive moves".

 

That weekly zone reaction (1.3670) coincided with an inside hourly bar off the lower high slip through the local range high at 1.3750/60.

The index confirmed the technical move, with that low range tier exposed now it’s popped through 3450?

 

Some real nice moves off clear zone guides during the intraday sessions past couple weeks.

What's the betting that once term time ends & I can sit here flicking paper planes & candy wrappers at grumpy old Andre, the markets will tighten up & slop around like a bowl of soggy oats. :o

 

Edited October 16, 2008 by Bobby S

[Sledge 13]

Feel like I'm back into a comfy shoe, Good to see all of you back and some newcomers on crew to boot.

 

Anna-

I looked at that 60 min and 15 min on the AUD, there really were no clear signs of a major move back upwards as I anticipated there would be on the chart, no fast down move, no hammer, no real trigger bars to speak of. Actually you got a lot of bars with wicks coming in and rounding on the bottom. But no clear signs of exhaustion before the take off.

 

I suppose that with reduced action at that level it would constitute a nice area to bounce as it didn't have any muscle to punch through and that it was a major major support zone the last time it travelled to that area. So that part I understand.

 

Bobby-

Oh I really appreciate the charts, the repeating of information is what makes it stick. These zones and the action in, on or around it has been my main focus. Andre had kindly traded some PM's with me and let me in on the fact that this isn't the hardest thing out there- and he is correct (as everyone has been) I think seeing it from this perspective makes other forms of analysis look foolish.

 

Counting candles

Trying to memorize 1000 different patterns

Plopping 100 indicators on the screen

and the list goes on and on.

 

It looks silly and is a waste of time- but it takes time for someone to grasp the TRUE meaning of Supply and Demand. Oddly enough, this is what I was studying- without truly understanding what it meant. To see the market from this perspective is life altering. I have had the best month of my trading to date this month- I actually have made more $ this month alone than I made in my first 6 months of trading- and it is only the 16th.

 

I try to keep my wits about me, be patient and wait for the right time to make the play- it is preached over and over- but to finally master it- changes your trading perspective in a way nothing else can!

 

So Welcome to the topic- I am most appreciative of your posts and it is good to see all of you back here!

Aaron

[Sledge 13]

The index confirmed the technical move, with that low range tier exposed now it’s popped through 3450?

 

Can you tell me what "index" you are referring too? :\

Thanks,

Aaron

[Anna-Maria 10]

Can you tell me what "index" you are referring to?

 

It’s the Dollar Index Aaron. A measure of $U.S performance v/s a basket of core constituents of which Euro accounts for approx 55%.

 

Good to hear you’re making formidable progress out there, great stuff!

 

.