Busy Day Tomorrow

[GammaJammer 10]

That's actually bringing a tear to my eye.

[Guest forsearch]

Life is so beautiful and wonderful..........

 

 

[cowpip 10]

Bravo, forsearch. Couldn't have sung it better myself.

[arifwise 10]

thanks soooooooo much. may you be bless always. But I ve lost the talking lady just now. really appreciate it if you can kindly resend it. this song is nice too

[Sledge 13]

Alright Forex Traders:

Today the market is very flat.. need someone with more trading experience than my own to give me a hint (no trades in, nothing met set-up) Just curious. Some wonderous news on Monday coming? Some holiday today that I'm not getting a paid day off for hmm hmm hmm?

Aaron

[cowpip 10]

Alright Forex Traders:

Today the market is very flat.. need someone with more trading experience than my own to give me a hint (no trades in, nothing met set-up) Just curious. Some wonderous news on Monday coming? Some holiday today that I'm not getting a paid day off for hmm hmm hmm?

 

Here's my 2 cents...

 

"No position" IS a position.

 

If nothing is meeting your criteria, don't trade. It's as simple as that. No point throwing money in a hole if you can't get it back out again.

 

Japan is on holiday on Monday, so some of the yen crosses may be a tad quieter until europe and the US step up to the plate.

 

Weekends are usually when the worst news hits the fan. I don't know if you'd see too many bank failures during the week. The FDIC probably needs that time to get set up for the "new configuration" at the start of the new week when a bank fails.

 

I don't expect we'll see anything big this weekend, but I do personally expect to see more bank failures in the not-too-distant future. If IndyMac (which wasn't even on FDIC's watch list) can fail, who knows what other surprises there might be.

 

Next week looks to be a fairly light week, data wise, except for durable goods on Friday and existing home sales (which will probably continue to be depressed).

 

If Bernanke and company can keep their mouths shut this week, maybe we'll have less jittery markets.

[Sledge 13]

Here's my 2 cents...

 

"No position" IS a position.

 

If nothing is meeting your criteria, don't trade. It's as simple as that. No point throwing money in a hole if you can't get it back out again.

 

I agree with you 100%, tis why nothing is open on my trade table

 

I was just curious as to why the market is napping pretty hard. I mean post 12:00 Noon on the NY session on a Friday is a given, always pretty slow and lame. But even London last night seemed to be putzing around and not making too much waves out there. Saw it as odd.. but your explination sounds logical and rational!

 

Aaron

[Tess 10]

Today the market is very flat.. Some wonderous news on Monday coming? Some holiday today that I'm not getting a paid day off for hmm hmm hmm?

Aaron

 

they can get a little tired & grouchy & put in an off day when things are quiet every now & again, but quite a few of the popular pairings have vibrated on & around busy activity levels the past week or so.

 

euro has been a little subdued printing only 73% of it’s avg weekly move. But depending on your appetite, still offered a decent risk short off the big figure back to it’s recent demand zone?

 

I thought Pound/Jap was the most interesting pair of late though. Look at all that hustle & bustle back & forth thru it’s major range barriers. Man, those were real neat ‘pullback & go’ moves (both north & south) off the 210.25-55 zone. Not a bad little shake off 212.0 on the continuation higher low shuffle either.

 

that one printing 1.5 times it’s most recent avg weekly performance return.

 

it's now knocking on a pretty heavy door up here @ 213.80, a keen s&r zone from back toward 4th quarter 07 – 1st quarter 08.

 

those lower levels might just be of interest should prices decide to revisit (profit targets shorts etc), but we now got a fresh zone of interest to focus in on.

 

pound/swiss also hustling a key range barrier up at 2.0410-30. I think that was mentioned on here recently? Might be worth noting that one in your jotter pad.

[Sledge 13]

I have a question for any/all of the UK Crew:

 

Say you are sitting on 500 lots Long of XYZ/ABC currency. Your nightly shift change comes in and notices that between the NY Close and the London Open you see a slew of Distribution going on. When your eyes land on said set-ups do you folks say:

A. "Shit, looks like the 500 lots are going to take a dent in profit tonight?"

B. "Oh good, another opportunity to get in Long on a pullback?"

C. Take a few lots of position SHORT to hedge?

D. Something else?

 

I just thought of this question over the weekend. Since you folks have so much to offload and can't just punt all the lots you have in an instant- I guess I was curious as to what your normal response to seeing that you may have a rough night ahead in your currency pairing you have open?

 

Aaron

[Tess 10]

any positions that are active in a pair (whether they be opm or personal accounts) for any longer than a day or two would be usually be drip fed or averaged in, regardless of the aggregate size.

 

it would have to be an awful lot of selling (buying) taking place during Tokyo to raise more than a eyebrow, & would normally signal some kind of unique event unfolding out there which wouldn’t necessarily be directly related to trading.

 

if that was the case, then there are certainly viable alternatives, including phased encashment & options to name but 2.

 

that’s a pretty much open question you pose though. A whole lot depends on which kind of strategy is being employed, over what timeframe, across which pair(s).

 

not every trade or account justifies a mid to long range view. Like everyone else out there, we’re at the mercy of what cards the market deals us. We trip up, we also occasionally get the timing wrong even though we nailed the directional flow. It’s horses & courses.

 

main concern is the risk management. You get that all disjointed & you’ll get your ass handed to you on a golden platter.

 

when we get a trade out of step or it begins to wash out – it’s time to cash your hand in, step back & re-assess.

 

when we get it right & the timings in tune – then it’s time to pile on & ride the waves.

 

You got yourself 2 main game plays out there mister: Damage limitation & profit exposure maximization.

 

Know when to hold em (& compound em) & know when to fold em

[Sledge 13]

Tess-

Very nice. Thanks so much for the in-depth reply. Another question for you: Any chance the reasoning for the lack of mid to long range view is related to the summer months and less liquidity and action going on?

 

I sincerely appreciate your views and insight! I also wanted to ask about the Tokyo session. It is always pretty slow and lean as you said. So can I ask- what is your cut-off for your daily picture? Is it London Open to NY Close? You gauge decisions on future direction by what happens on that timeframe? Or something else?

Thanks

Aaron

[Tess 10]

I think the reduced summer-months activity is simply a coincidence this time around Aaron. Sure, there’s definitely less participation at this time of the year, but there’s also a whole pile of other major issues playing out around the world. When you got uncertainty & nervous psychology causing ripples out there, then it’ll get reflected in the price bars.

 

i’m not saying Tokyo is unplayable. It’s just we prefer to roll our sleeves up & start slugging when the playground fills up with kids, & that generally kicks off as the Frankfurt & London children arrive at school.

 

if you study your technical charts, you’ll often see the Yens & their Australasian counterparts doing a little business during the Tokyo shift. The majors might be in snooze mode, but occasionally you’ll get movement, especially if the equity markets are in overdrive.

 

but I guess it would be prudent to transact your business when the liquidity is likely to be at it’s highest? & that definitely pans out during European hours & the NY overlap.

 

our normal daily open to close business hours are Frankfurt open thru to the London close, with half an eye on NY for another couple hrs if it’s been a busy day.

[Sledge 13]

our normal daily open to close business hours are Frankfurt open thru to the London close, with half an eye on NY for another couple hrs if it’s been a busy day.

 

So would it be fair to say that Frankfurt open until NY at Noon (on busy days) gives you a clear enough picture to be able to feel confident in your plays until the Frankfurt open again? I know this may sound "prying" in a way, but I'm working to filter the bars I look at.. Seperate the wheat from the chaff and eliminate some noise from my radar.

 

Andre had pointed out to me a while back that Tokyo and Aussie sessions are pretty slow and weak, and they can be filtered out. But I'm working to find which sessions and parts of sessions to really focus on.. figure I have a great group to ask the question of.

 

Much Thanks!

Aaron

[Anna-Maria 10]

The times she mentioned are the engine room of the days activity for sure Aaron. If you’re primarily engaged in intra-day plays then that timeframe will be somewhat influential in your decision making.

 

If you’re still utilizing vsa? then like she said, you’d be prudent to focus on the times where the participation/volume is in full flow. I'm not trying to hedge or parry your questions, but each person see's things very different from the next one. And most of the decisions, bias & focus usually revolve around the strategies & set-ups utilized.

 

Andre rolls most his stuff over wherever possible. He rarely participates in intra-day visits to the markets, certainly not as an intentioned play. So his primary focus, strategies & influences will be different to someone adopting a more short-term view of the market.

 

What you really need to do is suck it & see. It would be bad form for me or anyone else to influence or deflect you from researching a particular pair or specific time-zone. What suits your style won’t suit mine & vice versa.

 

You'll soon get a handle on what works (suited to your style) & what doesn't once you attempt to get to work on a pair around differing conditions.

[pipMonster 10]

Hey there Anna and Tess,

 

Since it's exceedingly slow this morning, I thought I would point you all to a very important article:

 

http://www.theonion.com/content/news/recession_plagued_nation_demands

 

- Jack

[GammaJammer 10]

Outstanding

 

GJ

[Tess 10]

Hey there Anna and Tess,

 

Since it's exceedingly slow this morning, I thought I would point you all to a very important article:

 

aha, so you're the culprit?! :o

 

we had that one forwarded from our brother last week.

[pipMonster 10]

I was wondering if Buk got it because I hadn't heard from him. I laughed myself silly. There are a couple of other posts in the video section of The Onion that are classics.

 

Glad you enjoyed it.

[Sledge 13]

The times she mentioned are the engine room of the days activity for sure Aaron. If you’re primarily engaged in intra-day plays then that timeframe will be somewhat influential in your decision making.

I guess it is hard for me to say, my ultimate goal has been to get to a longer term trade, right now I don't have the ability to trade intra-day. Ideally, I would like to see a trend end, get confirmation of the turn and ride that trend until it starts to peter out (On a Daily Chart.) Right now I am honing my 4 Hr and Daily Chart "edge." I really enjoy these timeframes and my arse has eased into them like a comfy chair. Apparently, the summer months or whatever jittery bucket of nerves are playing out in the markets currently are not allowing for that to take place. GBP/USD had a nice top form about a week ago, got the confirmation and took the short, only for it to drift down a tiny amount of pips and return north to take another stab northward. I banked the money, but it seemed pretty odd to have that little fall in it. Same with AUD/USD and EUR/GBP. So instead of the nice 4 or 5 days of trend, we get quick stabs and smaller profits. But alas, this is all part of the learning curve. Still trying to get my bearings of why sometimes the market gives nice moves, and other times, it is like a 2 year olds tantrum :o

 

If you’re still utilizing vsa? then like she said, you’d be prudent to focus on the times where the participation/volume is in full flow. I'm not trying to hedge or parry your questions, but each person see's things very different from the next one. And most of the decisions, bias & focus usually revolve around the strategies & set-ups utilized.

 

I have actually moved a bit away from VSA, I believe it was a solid trading foundation teaching me to look at the bars and the horizon, but I find myself doing much better at seeing a hammer, as an example, and knowing that is one type of trigger bar (if placed appropriately in the chart.) The volume associated with it is semi-irrelevant at the moment. Where the volume comes in for me on it is that with that massive volume that takes place with a nicely formed hammer, 9 times out of 10, we know it will return to that area to re-test supply at some point in the near future, so I'm less surprised by that.

 

Andre rolls most his stuff over wherever possible. He rarely participates in intra-day visits to the markets, certainly not as an intentioned play. So his primary focus, strategies & influences will be different to someone adopting a more short-term view of the market.

 

What you really need to do is suck it & see. It would be bad form for me or anyone else to influence or deflect you from researching a particular pair or specific time-zone. What suits your style won’t suit mine & vice versa.

 

You'll soon get a handle on what works (suited to your style) & what doesn't once you attempt to get to work on a pair around differing conditions.

 

That makes sense, in your office, you may have 10 employees, all with their own style and strategy, as long as it makes the money, I'm sure the person signing the paycheck could care less about strategy.. unless it fails to make the appropriate returns the employee is obligated to provide.

 

Thanks Anna!

Aaron

[wasp 10]

FX market turnover soars

 

Category: Industry news

Tags: cable, eur/usd, usd/yen

 

The Foreign Exchange market continues to thrive with UK average daily turnover up to $1.82 trillion in the six months to April. This represents a rise of 54% from a year earlier. All of the major currencies lost maket share as emerging market activity increased. The most heavily traded currency pair was Euro/dollar with 29% of total turnover, followed some way in the distance by Cable at 12% and Dollar/Yen at 11%. Obviously this increase in volume should mean that you get tighter spreads, increased depth and better stops from now on OK ?

 

 

 

Good to see the important things aren't being affected!

[GammaJammer 10]

Where you get that stat Wasp? There isn't another BIS survey due out yet is there?

 

(incidentally instinctively it does sound about right-ish though)

 

GJ

[wasp 10]

Where you get that stat Wasp? There isn't another BIS survey due out yet is there?

 

(incidentally instinctively it does sound about right-ish though)

 

GJ

 

http://www.reutersfxhub.com/fxhub/blog-detail.jsf?title=fx_market_turnover_soars

[GammaJammer 10]

Hmmm - slightly odd insofar as they don't make any reference to where this number has come from. have a feeling it could be a tad artificial meself.

 

GJ

[wasp 10]

Hmmm - slightly odd insofar as they don't make any reference to where this number has come from. have a feeling it could be a tad artificial meself.

 

GJ

 

I take everything I read with a pinch of salt anyhow and it hasn't really told us much we don't know (EU No. 1 and cable a late 2nd) and that, yes, more transactions took place, which, to the average retailer, means little to affect them anyhow.

[Sledge 13]

Holy Crap, the icecream is melting today.

 

After a + US Consumer Confidence #, the herd decided to get as much as they could. I mean hell after months and months of nothing but crap fundy USD prints- to get a 1.8% increase in Consumer Confidence over estimate- people were looking to snag dollars as if they were going out of style.

 

Put on your rain slickers- the slaughter awaits!

 

Aaron