Busy Day Tomorrow

[cowpip 10]

In my experience, there is a slight (sometimes more profound) "personality change" that occurs during the summer months. Liquidity seems to be a bit lower and range-bound plays more abundant. The propensity for currencies to break major ranges is lessened during the summer, which of course makes sense if the liquidity is lower. But other than that, summer months can be just as profitable as any other. The activity (or lack thereof) we've seen in the last week has probably been more related to this upcoming FOMC statement than anything else. Ranges usually contract in the days leading up to the FOMC statement, just as they do prior to the release of other major news items (NFP). They then break out following the news events and resume somewhat of a more normal daily range. I've grown to despise FOMC statements specifically because of the lack of volatility that precedes them. But it always returns in the days that follow.

 

Happy hunting to you all.

[Sledge 13]

It's normally a little lighter on bodies May thru July Sledge. Various combinations of them scoot off to take advantage of the hospitality marquee's at Roland Garros, Queens & Wimbledon.

Art:

:o I'm not sure if I am more envious of them being able to take advantage of seeing such events, or feel bad that you are still at the helm back at base camp answering my silly inquiry.

 

Cowpip:

I have noticed that any time an FOMC decsion looms the markets go into slumber- then they act like a drunken monkey for a few days afterwards, trying to get their bearings again. Nice observation to point out!

[GammaJammer 10]

Not necessarily always lethargic in pure price action terms, sometimes it works that way, sometimes you get poor liquidity and therefore some strange intraday moves. But definitely less people about.

[cowpip 10]

Looks like the worry-warts came back in the market today. It wouldn't surprise me if we saw the Fed-heads crawl out of their holes in the very near future to try and limit the carnage. The question is, will anyone trust them? Have they shot all of their bullets? All they can do is what?... cut rates again after having just finished signaling that they're in a holding pattern? Hmmm.... that sounds eerily familiar. :bad idea:

[Sledge 13]

Looks like the worry-warts came back in the market today. It wouldn't surprise me if we saw the Fed-heads crawl out of their holes in the very near future to try and limit the carnage. The question is, will anyone trust them? Have they shot all of their bullets? All they can do is what?... cut rates again after having just finished signaling that they're in a holding pattern? Hmmm.... that sounds eerily familiar. :bad idea:

 

I'll second that- hard to take a nice longer term long on a currency pair that is destined to do so- with all the pansy selling going on. But eh, looks like the pickings are ripe to get in nice and low on GBP/CHF :o

[firewalker 10]

Looks like the worry-warts came back in the market today. It wouldn't surprise me if we saw the Fed-heads crawl out of their holes in the very near future to try and limit the carnage. The question is, will anyone trust them? Have they shot all of their bullets? All they can do is what?... cut rates again after having just finished signaling that they're in a holding pattern? Hmmm.... that sounds eerily familiar. :bad idea:

 

They can't cut rates imo... that would only send prices even higher, causing more inflationary pressures and creating a vicious circle... In the end the question is, does it matter?

 

btw, Torero started an interesting thread:

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f18/definition-of-stagflation-in-wikipedia-4034.html?highlight=fiscal+policy

[Art Krantz 10]

But eh, looks like the pickings are ripe to get in nice and low on GBP/CHF :o

 

You're prob better off running that pair via the shorter hourly studies back & forth off it's near-end s&r boundaries if you really have the urge to take it on.

 

Recent avg weekly range prints are lacklustre to say the least, with this week registering a dour 73% of it's norm.

 

2nd quarter play on this baby has definitely dealt to the continued short bias, with 2.0180-220 a bit of a magnet.

 

A pop under this flimsy floor here at that zone & a sniff at the early month lows would shake it up a little.

 

Topside, I guess you're lookin at nibbles back thru 2.0410 (mid) & 2.0565-90 (top) of this sluggish range.

[Sledge 13]

Art-

Thanks for the insight, quick pops on all currencies seem to be the better route to take as of late. None of them seem to have the balls to pick a strong direction and stick with it.

 

I'l be sure to check my S&R's and be sure they match up with the levels you have posted.

Aaron

[Tess 10]

I'll be sure to check my S&R's and be sure they match up with the levels you have posted.

 

I guess your wages are tucked safely in the satchel off those levels this week for sure

Probing that lower floor zone again into late NY traffic. Like Krantzy said, should shake a little dust off the early June sub 2.0000 number if they shout loud enough.

[Sledge 13]

I guess your wages are tucked safely in the satchel off those levels this week for sure

Probing that lower floor zone again into late NY traffic. Like Krantzy said, should shake a little dust off the early June sub 2.0000 number if they shout loud enough.

 

Tess-

Good to see you back. Yeah $ is banked for now. With trading tonight looking pretty lean with the upcoming holdiay- may be a "tradeless night" going down.

 

Looking over the currency buffet- it appears most of the good fruit is picked over- only renegade pips and gambler trades for tiny scalps left-- I'll leave those for the desperate :o

Aaron

[arifwise 10]

hi all bless traders. please someone explain why euro/usd dropped after announcement of rate hike to 4.25% ?

 

thanks so much for your reply. be bless always

[Tess 10]

I guess you don't pay very close att'n to your fundamental sheets or stay abreast of what actually is going on out there, otherwise you'd know why it was biased heavily to the short side regardless of whether they hiked or remained in neutral.

 

Go get yourself up to speed on the background to these pairs & the real drivers of the currency market. Then you can maybe stand an evens chance of playing ball with both hands instead of one

[Sledge 13]

hi all bless traders. please someone explain why euro/usd dropped after announcement of rate hike to 4.25% ?

 

thanks so much for your reply. be bless always

 

Look back on this thread and study it- that is the best advice I can give. We are very lucky to have a very smart and great bunch of folks who have a lot of experience here that are offering steallar advice to get you to where you need to be in your trading.

Sledge

[idaxtrader 10]

I don't see why people have to respond with rude comments regarding a beginners inquiry. TL is not elite trader and people are supposed to help people over here. Any way the reason Eur fell hard on the rate hike is because some people had thought they would hike one more time. Mr. Trichet signaled that its very unlikely they will hike again so that caused the Eur to fall. If I can offer some advice don't concern yourself with why something is dropping only concern yourself that it is dropping. Fundamentals just get in the way of trading. I think the secret of this business is risk management and to ignore all news flow. Simply offset a few minutes before release time. Let the market digest the data and then wait for a trigger that will let you initiate a trade.

[Tess 10]

Fundamentals just get in the way of trading.

 

I think the secret of this business is risk management and to ignore all news flow.

 

Oh boy, I've heard it all now :o :o

What ship did you sail in on??

 

You got the risk management part down ok, but it appears you're getting your legs all tangled up with your generic fundamentals & specific news flow releases?!?

 

As for being rude?? I thought it was a perfectly polite straight up & down comment. I'd grow another skin if I were you buster

[Art Krantz 10]

If I can offer some advice don't concern yourself with why something is dropping only concern yourself that it is dropping.

 

Fundamentals just get in the way of trading.

 

Those are pretty short sighted views if you ask me. Little wonder most retailers get so easily spooked & muscled out of decent (potential) core positions most of the time.

 

Whether you like it or not, your technical set-ups are the result of fundamental flows. You can dress it up however you want (sentiment runs…psychological herding…supply demand imbalance etc), but the core drivers are numbers & data - pure & simple.

 

I would have thought if someone was even half serious about making consistent long term profits in FX they’d at least familiarize themselves with what drives these instruments on a week to week basis & why?

 

After all, if you’re looking to build a core position & aggressively compound via appropriate pullbacks and/or consolidation phases, you’re going to action those kinda trades if you possess a better than average handle on the fundamentals/drivers, & more importantly who is jostling for the ideal position & why.

 

In my book that’s what separates the earners from the (constant) learners.

[idaxtrader 10]

Dear, Mr Krantz I have to politely disagree with you. It is possible to derive an edge and be successful in the foreign exchange marketplace while systematically ignoring data releases and long term economic fundamentals. It may not be the best idea but its possible. Many beginners think they need to deeply understand the macroeconomic outlook ,read the wall street journal every mourning, and surf the websites like bloomberg and reuters for news updates. This is simply not true. The following is in essence the concept that I'm trying to illustrate. This quote is from a professional that I personally respect greatly John Person.

 

"You are not so much concerned with long-term macroeconomic situations as you are with riding a momentum wave. Granted, it helps to have a good understanding of fundamental conditions; but for the most part, you

are looking to ride a move and profit from it. That is your job. In short-term trading, conditions change; and you need to capture opportunities as they become present."

[Art Krantz 10]

Well, I guess you can respect/believe who you wish to, that’s of no concern to me. These vendor/sales/public trader type folks have a vested interest in getting their PR out to the masses, but that’s a whole other slugfest.

 

I certainly don’t disagree with your point about possessing an edge in your instrument/market of choice, but we’re not discussing trading edges.

 

Anyhow, I don’t see why a balanced diet of fundamental & technical knowledge can’t greatly enhance an edge, especially a beginners outlook. But then that involves a bit of (extra) hard work & application.

 

arifwise was scratching his head, totally oblivious as to why Euro popped to the downside on the back of the recent rates hike.

 

He was advised (rightly in my opinion) to go broaden his outlook & research base. That would undoubtedly offer him a little more confidence & structure to his trade planning, which would knock-onto, & compliment his technical awareness.

 

Tess wasn’t expecting him to enrol into an Economics degree course at his local college, but it wouldn’t do him (or anyone else, come to that) too much harm to become better acquainted with the key generic events which affect & drive these currency instruments on a regular basis.

 

I guess each individual will eventually decide how much armour they require to get the job done. But I know which trader I’d rather have in my corner when push comes to shove.

[cowpip 10]

I'm afraid Art and Tess are right about this.

 

Look at it this way, idaxtrader: Anyone can drive a car without any lessons. They just need to be told what key to turn, what pedals to push, and what the steering wheel does. Some people will get along just fine with that information. But shove them into New York City during rush hour and they'll be mashed-potato soup in short-order. Sure, they could drive - anyone can, but CAN THEY NAVIGATE? Of course not. Not without some serious additional information and instructions on how to use that information.

 

The more information and knowledge you have to navigate by, the better your driving will become. It's that simple.

[GammaJammer 10]

Wow - tough room again

 

Had few days away but came back and looks like Trichet caught more than a few people on the hop last week. Nice.

[torero 10]

Yes, I thought Tess was polite and non-condescending. As for the fundamental analysis, you're right that it may not serve the short- and medium-term trader but a basic understanding the mechanics of why things move they way they do is warranted. Of course, after that, markets may move in the opposite direction, that is where your experience comes in as trader to guide you to make the right decision. Some people do well just using technicals while combine both.

[GammaJammer 10]

I personally think Tess was prtty abrupt, but then again so is the market And she's 100% right in saying that a thick skin is needed to take the knocks.

 

But fwiw Art's answer was imho the better talking point.

 

GJ

[arifwise 10]

to all bless traders. pray all of you are being guided and making money so that you are an agent of change to so many people and bring smiles and cheers everywhere you set foot.

 

I feel so much gratitude and grateful to all of you for advising and giving your motivational inputs in helping to be cleared of the eur/usd reaction after the rate hike.

 

I see on the technical that eur/usd supposed should go down but undecided due the the fact that rate will be hike and end-up watching the screen.

 

Well, may all of you be bless always. I am so thankful to everyone and the feel is something like hitting a jackpot of 500 pips in a week !

 

Thanks again

[cowpip 10]

I see on the technical that eur/usd supposed should go down but undecided due the the fact that rate will be hike and end-up watching the screen.

 

Well, may all of you be bless always. I am so thankful to everyone and the feel is something like hitting a jackpot of 500 pips in a week !

 

Arifwise, if you really are "wise," you'll do exactly what you said, and WATCH THE SCREEN. Watch and watch and watch some more... and then when you get sick of watching, watch the screens even more. If you really want 500 pips in a week, expect to spend the next few years WATCHING. I wouldn't trade with real cash anytime soon either. You should be paper trading for a good long time before you try cash.

 

PS: A little less "blessings" would sure be nice. I'm fine without them, thank you.

[arifwise 10]

hi all.

 

Its my faith, " the more we give the more we receive in return". Thats being the law of nature. I always feel bless and in deep gratitude. To certain extend, there were few incidents known acquitances and friends tried catching me off-guard. Some of them followed me literally 24 hours just to see me non-blessing and beind non-thankful. In so far I am okay and they still failed.

 

Life is so beautiful and wonderful..........