Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Are people on this site pretty much wholly technical, or does anyone look at macro factors, fundamentals, market positioning, geopolitics etc?

 

 

G'day, GammaJammer. I'm sure there's a good mix of both with some folks weighting technicals more than fundamentals and visa-versa.

 

Personally, I keep one eye on the fundamentals and the other eye on the technicals. They go hand-in-hand (or should). Market sentiment is emotion-based, and that requires a good handle on the fundamentals to play properly. Anyone who ignores the technicals and fundamentals (both) is (imho), driving without stereo vision. You can still drive - but it's a lot harder to tell the distance to the next car with one eye shut. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I sure haven't lost the ability to read or keep my ears open when required that's for sure.

 

At some point I guess you need to ask yourself how much (additional info) is enough?

 

Kinda reminds me of the old saying: "what can't speak can't lie"

 

Each to their own.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Depends where the main vibration zones are at Aaron. Daily is the usual 1st port of call. That + your 4 hour will offer most of what you require.

 

If you're then triggering off via a smaller frame template, it's merely a case of waiting around until a favorite bar or combination of set-up/price bar pops into view.

 

There's no rule say's you got to execute a trade via a 1 or 4 hour bar in order to run a position through the handles. As long as the level packs muscle, it can be fired off from a 1 minute launch pad if you got a set up which signals you in.

 

Andre-

Most appreciated- may I ask why you would not mark a Support line at the very bottom of these attached charts? Maybe waiting to see if it will touch again before making it a support line?

Aaron

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

may I ask why you would not mark a Support line at the very bottom of these attached charts?

 

You mean below 102.50?

 

From a purely technical perspective you can mark them up if you so wish. But prices haven’t hustled sub 102.50 since popping through in early April. That’s your initial support zone right there. I’ll worry bout the levels below that marker if & when they pressure & maybe re-test 102.50.

 

Same as the upper ceiling at 105.50

The time to start winding in the zoom on the radar is when price successfully hurdles it. You then need to monitor the behaviour of the pullbacks to the prev resistance line to check it’s a genuine b/o candidate or not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Andre-

Thanks for the clarification! Actually I meant at the 95.15 neighborhood.

In essence you are no where near the neighborhood- so it is safely away from treading there any time soon. Gotcha!

Aaron

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
G'day, GammaJammer. I'm sure there's a good mix of both with some folks weighting technicals more than fundamentals and visa-versa.

 

Personally, I keep one eye on the fundamentals and the other eye on the technicals. They go hand-in-hand (or should). Market sentiment is emotion-based, and that requires a good handle on the fundamentals to play properly. Anyone who ignores the technicals and fundamentals (both) is (imho), driving without stereo vision. You can still drive - but it's a lot harder to tell the distance to the next car with one eye shut. ;)

 

Absolutely, reason I asked today of all days is that imho it's been an interesting mix of factors driving price action today, and someone with just a focus on one out of the three core pillars (fundamentals, technicals and context) would possibly have been a star on one trade, and totally baffled and stopped out next time.

 

GJ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks for the clarification! Actually I meant at the 95.15 neighborhood.

 

There are a couple pit stops ahead of the March 17 low of 95.15 where you'd definitely want to place a marker, but yeah - those area's wouldn't require attention until the initial 102.50 supports got pressured.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Absolutely, reason I asked today of all days is that imho it's been an interesting mix of factors driving price action today,

 

You referring to the mish mash of ping pong oil prices/Eurozone inflationary fears/Asian CB activity Gamma? The rumor mill also tends to work overtime when there's a good helping of fundy meat on the menu.

 

Don't you find that quite often it can be a buddy to the price action, particularly if the fundies or chatter is swirling around a key level or zone? Other times it merely serves to pull the rug from under what was a decent (technical) entry or compound stake, only to re-assert itself after all the fun & games has blown itself out.

 

GBPJPY & GBPCHF were certainly 2 prime horses to be on into early European trade if you had a positive view of Sterling. The Asian CB sales were definitely weighing heavy on Cable (& Euro) again this morning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems EURJPY has been a deadbeat lately, always have to keep an eye on other pairs to play. I've been holding back from trading due to inaction from these. Finally, GBPCHF gave me something to trade with. Obviously I've missed the cable and $ is getting volatile again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that's kinda what a lot of people find tough - the market can be v fickle when it comes to what is actually being concentrated on - at some times it's rate differentials, other times it's data, other times it's risk appetite / aversion etc etc. And unless you're sitting at a big shop it's hard to get enough of a scent of what's driving things imho.

 

But I still would be extremely uncomfortable trading without an idea of what's really happening. Technical analyis alone is nowhere near enough of an explanation for me, and imho, without some idea of what's really going on, you're gambling, not trading. Which is fine if you embrace that, but it's not for me.

 

 

(now cue GJ being shot down in flames ;) .......)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

(now cue GJ being shot down in flames ;) .......)

 

:o

 

I think you'll find the flames on here resemble the power of a $2 cigarette lighter than the ferocity of the industrial flame thrower more common on other forum playgrounds.

 

Besides, you make some very valid points. I doubt folks could really pick too many holes in those views.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Seems EURJPY has been a deadbeat lately, always have to keep an eye on other pairs to play. I've been holding back from trading due to inaction from these. Finally, GBPCHF gave me something to trade with. Obviously I've missed the cable and $ is getting volatile again.

 

Yep! I tend to only trade Yens these days and EURJPY has been killing me on the smaller TF's lately. Easily solved by stepping a TF or 2 and running the trades a bit longer. Whilst I would love to trade every pair going, I feel I know the yens better and whilst they may not move that differently to others, they are a different ballgame to say NOK or SEK IMO.

 

I think that's kinda what a lot of people find tough - the market can be v fickle when it comes to what is actually being concentrated on - at some times it's rate differentials, other times it's data, other times it's risk appetite / aversion etc etc. And unless you're sitting at a big shop it's hard to get enough of a scent of what's driving things imho.

 

But I still would be extremely uncomfortable trading without an idea of what's really happening. Technical analyis alone is nowhere near enough of an explanation for me, and imho, without some idea of what's really going on, you're gambling, not trading. Which is fine if you embrace that, but it's not for me.

 

(now cue GJ being shot down in flames ;) .......)

 

Where is my lighter and that can of hairspray?! :o As I said above, I don't think you need to have all the other aspects you have available down the bank, TA alone will always do the job and whilst I'm not saying what else you look/hear isn't important, I just wouldn't say its vital to switch from being a gambler to a trader ;). Markets are fickle but as long as you can adapt with them (ie change TF etc) the problem is removed and happy days. IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Agree to a certain extent, but imho finding / honing that adaptability is far harder than people think. But it clearly seems to be working for you so good luck mate.

 

Well it has taken many, many years :\

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Agree to a certain extent, but imho finding / honing that adaptability is far harder than people think. But it clearly seems to be working for you so good luck mate.

 

There are days you'll want to throw your hands up and say "**** it" But you have to press on if this is the path you really want to take. I made a very bad call and took a SHORT on GBP/CHF. Less than a week after that little darlin netted me $800 bucks in less than two hours one night- she whipped out here silly stick and kicked my ass yesterday. I didn't even get a kiss for it!

 

I won't let one trade that I didn't smarten up on sooner derail my overall desire to want to trade the pair- too much potential for money to be made in it. I just need to "feel her out" better next time! :o

 

Aaron

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another busy week ahead, it looks like.

 

Here's the playing field as I see it for one of my favorites ($/yen). The gap down (that broke the daily inside bar) early Sunday was a nice early signal to get short once the gap filled. The hourly+ charts offered a nice signal during the asian/european session. Many of the other pairs look to have behaved well, as well.

jun0208a.thumb.jpg.29e8906f2706c6b56f8d84a95f958e6f.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Alright all, after taking amy "beginners luck" strike on GBP/CHF and then having it ripped from me a few days later. I have been playing with test lots instead.

 

It appears that this pair is nice and strong and didn't appear to have any indication of a monster drop back to the floor. Anyone want to assist me in gauging the pairs personality- feel like I'm trying to get a tiger shark in the boat with a dime store fishing pole!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Another busy week ahead, it looks like.

 

Here's the playing field as I see it for one of my favorites ($/yen). The gap down (that broke the daily inside bar) early Sunday was a nice early signal to get short once the gap filled. The hourly+ charts offered a nice signal during the asian/european session. Many of the other pairs look to have behaved well, as well.

 

Out of interest - what are all those millions of lines close together near the highs on your chart? Couldn't quite make them out. They manually drawn S/R, fibos or what?

 

GJ

 

edit - actually they could be pivot points I'm thinking.

Edited by GammaJammer
Doh!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
edit - actually they could be pivot points I'm thinking.

 

Yep, you nailed it. It's the daily pivot and the associated R1/2/3 S1/2/3 levels. They're nice to use as assists for entries when I zoom in to take a position. Sorry they cluttered it up. I didn't turn them off before grabbing that image.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Wasp-

Try to hear me through all the money surrounding you if you were set-up Long on the GBP/JPY today- 400 Pips! Damn!

 

That puppy ran and ran and ran... I missed it myself (grrr). Congrats to those who caught it.

 

Whoever guessed $/yen would see a complete and full retrace of Friday's move is prescient! Some sort of a retrace I expected, sure... but not a full retrace in one day. I never thought we would see that - not with a gap lower open. And now, we have what appears to my eyes to be an expanding triangle on the daily charts of $/yen... It's a whippy little bugger.

 

Correction: ascending triangle, not expanding.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cowpip-

Tell me about it, you have got to know that currency like the back of your had to have called that SOB.

 

Well another volitle little bugger is that AUD/JPY, been keeping my eye on it just to see how it plays- look at this chart. Anything stick out to you? Anything at all?

 

aud_jpy.gif.a507f45ad01d693e6352653032b39c4f.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nothing there for me, Sledge. Today was a tough one for me - this move higher for the dollar has me completely stumped. But that's ok. I'll just realign my radar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Nothing there for me, Sledge. Today was a tough one for me - this move higher for the dollar has me completely stumped. But that's ok. I'll just realign my radar.

 

Look at those absolutely SICK shakeouts- you gotta have BALLS to trade that pair if it acts like that on a regular basis!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Jonh Smith
      I searched in google with keywords best forex robot 2019 and in the end I found fxflightproEA from their website fxflightpro.com . if anyone has ever bought, I was interested in their ea. I saw a very small drawdown, and monthly profit looks great.and I see myfxbook profit reaching 50% in 50 days. if there are buy please review here and I say thank you if anyone would like to share here.

      thanks
    • By StraussX
      Hi GUYS, Happy Wednesday!
      I'd like to share daily forex analysis from Followme, hope this information helps your trading.
      Today, Let's focus on AUD and NZD.
      AUDUSD is trading at 0.6761; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6765 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6635. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6825. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6905.
       
      NZDUSD is trading at 0.6447; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6455 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6315. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6525. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6645.
    • By Georgebro8
      So I've been 18 for about 4 months, since I turned 18 I started up an account, and basically thought I was doing amazing because of beginners luck, put in some of my savings and managed to do well, some days I would make £200, one day I even made £900, after time I lost my profits and made a loss as well. I've realised I need to spend the time analysing the market and making technical judgments. I'm trying to read more and spend a lot of my time looking at the charts. is there any advice people can give me. and is making 5% a week a realistic goal to set myself? before anyone assumes that im looking for a get rich quick scheme, im certainly not, I see every loss ive made as a lesson and ensure that I learn from each mistake I make. 
      any advice about indicators, strategies, how to analyse the market, or even analysing earning reports would help me.
    • By edakad
      Firebird is an indicator to identify the price spikes in the market. Firebird indicator first calculates a 10-period moving average, then shifts this moving average a certain percentage above and below the 10-period moving average. The shifted averages are drawn on chart as the red and green line. When price touches these lines, price spike is identified. Usually after a price spike, the trend reverses for some time. The indicator can be used to take advantage of this price behaviors. In daily chart usually the 10 period MA is shifted by 2 percent to form the price bands. On lower time frames like Hourly, Four Hour a smaller percentage price shift is used like 0.5% . The important consideration here is most of the price bars must be contained within the upper and lower bands.
      When price reaches above the upper red band, a sell position is opened. When price reaches the lower green band, buy position is opened. Trades can be managed with proper stop loss and take profit. In the picture, Firebird indicator is attached to daily chart of EUR/USD with 2% shift on MA. Note that almost all price bars are within the price bands. And when price extends beyond these bands, price trend reverses and comes back into the bands.

      FireBird.zip
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TGT Target stock, watch for a breakdown at https://stockconsultant.com/?TGT
    • Big breakdowns on DOW ENPH FCEL LAZR and WFRD from Stocks to Watch short at https://stockconsultant.com/?WFRD  
    • LH Labcorp stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?LH
    • Date: 04th March 2025. Tariffs and OPEC+ Drive Oil Prices Lower.   Crude Oil prices fell 0.70% on Tuesday declining closer to the asset’s main support level. OPEC’s latest announcement has been one of the main drivers of lower prices. OPEC, which produces 40% of the world’s Crude Oil, surprisingly has increased oil production. However, other economic factors are also triggering a lower demand. OPEC Increases Supply Pressuring Prices OPEC+ confirms it will increase production and market output in 2025 despite prices declining for six consecutive weeks. The move from OPEC is primarily driven by pressure from the US administration to not purposely look to lower production in order to keep prices high. OPEC+ will boost oil production by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, causing crude prices to drop. The move has become possible with Russia expecting the Ukraine-Russia conflict to end in 2025 and the US’s more favourable approach towards Russia and Saudi Arabia. This marks the first of several monthly increases, aiming to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026 after a two-year pause. The higher output will increase supply and can significantly change the balance between supply and demand. As a result, Crude Oil prices have fallen, particularly as economic data globally has taken a hit over the past month. Over the past six weeks, Crude Oil prices have fallen by more than 10%. However, the move by OPEC is related solely to the supply within the market. Simultaneously, trade wars are also worrying traders about how demand may change in the upcoming months.     US Turn Up The Heat on Trade Wars The US tariffs on Mexico and Canada are now officially active, taking the level of tariffs to its highest level since the 1980s. President Trump has also advised the US to add a further 10% tariff on China in addition to the 10% announced in January. As a result, experts believe the global economy is likely to witness shockwaves in the short to medium term. This can also be seen in the stock market which has fallen 5% over the past 3 weeks. The economic slowdown is catching up with rising inflation and tariffs which are put into place. Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next moves is growing with some economists advising the Fed may be pressured into taking earlier. In response to the additional tariffs, China is vowing to take countermeasures to protect its producers. Warren Buffett called the tariffs an extra tax on people with little economic benefit. Weaker economic activity and a lower risk appetite within the market are known to pressure prices significantly. During the previous Trump administration and ‘trade tariff policy’ the price of Crude oil fell 13%. Crude Oil - Technical Analysis The price of Crude Oil in the longer term is obtaining indication the price may decline. On a monthly chart, the price forms a clear descending triangle which is known to hold a bearish bias. On the 2-hour chart, the price is also trading below the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average, below the VWAP and below the neutral areas of most oscillators. For this reason, momentum is indicating downward price movement. However, the main concern for bearish traders is the support level which is sitting at $66.70 per barrel. The support level is currently 1.50% points away from the current price. In order for sell signals to materialise in the short term, traders will be monitoring if the price can break below $67.69.     Key Takeaway Points: OPEC+ plans to boost production in 2025, aiming to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026, pushing crude prices lower. The US imposes record-high tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, raising concerns about global economic stability and market declines. Crude Oil prices decline as a result. Rising tariffs and inflation add uncertainty, with economists speculating the Fed may act sooner than expected. Technical analysis shows a bearish trend, but the price of Crude Oil is also nearing the key support levels at $66.70 per barrel. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • NET Cloudflare stock watch: After a pullback, it is holding at 144.69 support area with high trade quality at https://stockconsultant.com/?NET
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.