Busy Day Tomorrow

[Tess 10]

this pair is throwing up an interesting risk play off the channel edge. Not sure how many folks look outside of the main culprits, but these cross instruments offer up some real cute opportunities.

 

these outside days, outside & inside bar prints & the like, occur for very obvious reasons & yesterday’s bar shift off the channel edge afforded a positive risk shot on Sterling momentum which resulted in an outside day on the approach to 1st line resistance at this 2.0580 line.

 

A bust & hold of that lower fib exposes a run for the upper supply loop @ the 78.6, underneath that upper channel edge.

 

It may well get clouted back to these 10yr lows, but if you’re seeking to step out & get ahead of the crowd, these kind of set-ups can sometimes give you an edge on the herd.

[cowpip 10]

this pair is throwing up an interesting risk play off the channel edge. Not sure how many folks look outside of the main culprits, but these cross instruments offer up some real cute opportunities.

 

Hey Tess... good to see you here! That's a mighty cool example you threw up there. I missed that move myself, but it sure did offer a clear-cut least-resistance path with that 15-min rejection (melded 30-min doji). I love looking for ops like that if they fall in-line with decent support/resistance and have a secondary confirmer such as divergence. Thankfully, they're a dime a dozen, or I'd be upset I didn't see that. It pays to shop around, doesn't it?

[Tess 10]

hello Cary

 

i trust you're keeping well?

 

i can't take credit for that one unfortunately, it belongs to one of the fella's here. But it's a common area of activity, based around repetative generic analysis that the guy's have posted up here, hence the inclusion.

 

it might yet follow the other 50 odd % of triggers which get dumped into the scratch/loss bucket, but it's a nothing entry which pushes the value to risk ratio we like to try maintain.

 

the main focus on that pair (for longs) will be radared into the developments on & around 2.0560-80, depending on how price tackles all the flak at that s&r level. But on this occasion Jim considered it worthy of a feeder stake off that channel edge.

 

We'll see.

 

How's your buddy Jack?? He still studying his trading books?

[cowpip 10]

I'm doing great, Tess. Trading is going very well. More up days than down days, and that's all that matters. I'll tell you though, it sure took me a stinkin' lot of time to learn sufficient "patience and discipline." But it's been worth it.

 

it might yet follow the other 50 odd % of triggers which get dumped into the scratch/loss bucket, but it's a nothing entry which pushes the value to risk ratio we like to try maintain.

 

That's the challenge, isn't it? If it runs, great. If not, oh well. As long as you maintain the upper-hand on the majority of the trades.

 

How's your buddy Jack?? He still studying his trading books?

 

He is still heavy into forex, yep. I'll see if I can haul his butt up here for a how-dee-doo session. He's living on the big island right now, so his hours are a bit off from ours, but it lets him trade the asian and european sessions nicely.

[Tess 10]

 

He's living on the big island right now, so his hours are a bit off from ours, but it lets him trade the asian and european sessions nicely.

 

aloha hooola huh?

 

sea sand sex & surf & not necessarily in that order - good for him!

 

good to hear you're gunning your engines too

 

yeah that old discipline stick will beat you good if you let it :o

 

keep it in eye shot & you ought to be clear of it's barbed warnings

 

you been playing your own currency lately? peach of a stair step journey on the CAD since early May. Those fella's who got their close quarter stops snatched yesterday (Andre's post) will be puking into their beer today I don't doubt :o

 

just lost their value ticket on that baby good & proper.

[cowpip 10]

sea sand sex & surf & not necessarily in that order - good for him!

 

He's lovin' it, so far as I know. He'll undoubtably pop his skin-laden-eyes into this thread soon enough.

 

you been playing your own currency lately? peach of a stair step journey on the CAD since early May.

 

Indeed it has. It's stepping down nicely, and will probably continue to step down if oil keeps chomping at the record book. I've dabbled a bit in CAD, but mostly in cad/jpy. I've also dabbled a bit in aud/usd, which provided some nice entries at the base of the recent consolidation pattern on the dailies. But to be honest, I've been more focused on $/yen and eur/jpy. I like their personalities for both short intraday and longer-term entries.

 

Those fella's who got their close quarter stops snatched yesterday (Andre's post) will be puking into their beer today I don't doubt :o

 

And not just their beer! They've undoubtably loaded their pants as well. :o

[cowpip 10]

Here's my "value entry" for the day on $/yen and how I zoomed in to fine-tune my entry... judged off the broken support on the hourly/4 hourly charts and with the daily trend (lower). Thus far, not a lot of profits have been seen and my scaleout location wasn't ideal, but it was enough to perhaps secure an entry pre-FOMC. It's entirely possible they'll sound more hawkish (in fact, I expect they will), in which case I'll get nailed. But either way, this was an opportunity that reared it's head, fit my criteria and ended up being modestly profitable - even if it fails. If it sticks, I'll build upon it. If not, oh well... I'll ride the wave wherever it bounces.

[cowpip 10]

I guess the markets don't like being weaned off of the milk? No more rate cuts, it sounds like.

[pipMonster 10]

 

aloha hooola huh?

 

sea sand sex & surf & not necessarily in that order - good for him!

 

 

Aloha!

 

Hey there Tess and Cary...good to hear from you. I'm still cranking along, though the last couple of days have not been all that great for me trading wise. I just looked around this forum the other day and didn't see any new posts. I'll try and post a bit more often.

 

Take care,

 

Jack

[Sledge 13]

I guess the markets don't like being weaned off of the milk? No more rate cuts, it sounds like.

 

Gawd, the US Dollar is already the laughing stock of the world currency. Banks here in the US aren't passing any of their "cheap money" they are borrowing from the fed onto the consumers either. You know- they are in the red now, so they need to get back to profitable before they try and help the customers :o

 

I'm going to move to Canada before long!

[Sledge 13]

Well I did it, I want to thank a few folks (Esp. Andre) I decided to venture out of my normal GBP/USD vein and take a trade in GBP/CHF

First attempt last night. Garnished a nice 50 pip Long.

Whoo!

Aaron

[Kiwi 16]

Well done Aaron.

[milliard 10]

Well I did it

 

I decided to venture out of my normal GBP/USD vein and take a trade in GBP/CHF. First attempt last night.

Garnished a nice 50 pip Long.

Whoo!

 

From little acorns do big OAK tree's grow!

 

If you got your framework & your set-ups drilled down tight, the rest is down to belief.

 

Go get em

[Sledge 13]

Kiwi-

GBP/CHF: Here I was sitting at my platform at about 7:00 PM EST last night and this thing was actually MOVING, with my rut of trading GBP/USD it does virtually NOTHING from 4:00 PM until I hit the sack at about 11:30 PM EST.

 

I went Long at 2.0218- T/P at 2.0268--I actually had a higher target of 2.0363 which was SMASHED this AM, but I figured- "damn this is your first crack at this pair- don't be trying to hit a home run on your first step up to the GBP/USD plate." 50 pips on the first try- I'm pretty tickled with that!

 

I'd like to see if I can pick your brains on the pair's "personality" This obviously is much more heavily traded in the Asian Session than the GBP/USD.

Why?

Aaron

 

[Sledge 13]

From little acorns do big OAK tree's grow!

 

If you got your framework & your set-ups drilled down tight, the rest is down to belief.

 

Go get em

 

Dude you kick so much ass! Thanks for the kick in the pants to get me out of my tunnel vision of saying "No, I trade GBP/USD- I'm comfortable here- I shall not cheat on my GBP/USD gal"

 

Figure whatever pays me = my "favorite" pair! :o

Aaron

[milliard 10]

Well Aaron that’s what it’s all about. Pushing the boundaries & forcing yourself out of comfort zones. The big money isn’t earned in this business by being a pussy.

 

Sure, you got to possess a real tight template in the first place to offer the confidence & belief to hit the gas every time your analysis & research pitches a likely opportunity onto the radar. But if you don’t back your views & stick to your guns, you’re gonna miss the home runs.

 

We don’t post graphs & examples up here to brag or wave our dicks in the air. We haul them up & post our stuff to show that if you’re prepared to roll your sleeves up & get to work, you can get the job done.

 

If you flip back through the various posts you’ll notice a common theme from all of us. Same old set-ups & analysis, same old levels & zones, same old triggers & management etc.

 

We don’t give a crap whether the trades get scratched/register a loss. We know that if we play our edge often enough we’re gonna hit a few decent balls & every so often we’ll crack a heavy home run. If you work your ticket often enough, & it stands up to the rigors of a changeable market, then you can pump that sucker for all it’s worth.

 

Talking of sticking to views, that post which Tessa hauled up of Jimmy’s GBPAUD possie yesterday is a good example of taking action, backing your view (& unless events really turn sour), sticking to your guns.

 

It sloshed around into early NY trade y’day above his entry. It printed a higher low, got pitched on the back of positive Sterling enthusiasm & away she goes up the ladder.

 

Allows him to bank a little profit & add juice to the position. It’s now down to management. All’s he got to do is manage & trail it up to his initial target zone if it has a mind to trot. 300 pips in the green isn’t such a bad couple day’s work. But that comes from knowing exactly what he’s looking at, covering his bases & taking action.

 

Repetative behaviour & a sound belief structure (some folks might call it adopting an action plan). That little combo will take you an awful long way up the ladder if you’ve a mind to act on it.

 

 

Find a combination of tactics which suit your style & pocket.

Use a sim or demo engine to practice your work to death & fine tune your strategies.

Feed your stake/risk/account ratio’s in nice & steady.

Compound up your stake in accordance with your a/c growth.

And run your possies wherever & whenever possible (that’s the key).

[Sledge 13]

Milliard-

Oh I know for sure you folks aren't posting your charts for bragging rights. You all are posting to assist all of us- and what a world of difference that assistance has made (to me personally.) I thank all of you for it!

 

I think it is all really starting to click with me. On the onset, I thought- "Ok, how often does it bounce and return, how often does it do X, Y, or Z" and you always stated "trading simplicity" to us. And it is true, I can only assume that is where the thousands of hours of screen time and repetition comes from. You folks don't fear a market- you see it, look at it, and say- "Ok baby, ready to move in X direction" Let's get in on this. Or you say "That GBP/USD is a nasty POS, lets leave it alone until it wants to behave again."

 

I think I'm really beginning to see what it all means. I have copied and printed this thread and update my document daily. I look back on when I got into this thread and said "Man the lingo, the understanding they have- I think this is going to take a while to comprehend" And I feel that I am now finally "getting it."

 

That GBP/CHF set-up last night was picture perfect. I hesitated on my initial target and dropped it- but for me, at this point, is ok. Another block to overcome for me- learn to really let the big winners ride. My main concern of letting it ride longer was that major marked line at 2.03** My target was over it and I thought- well, lets play it safe- tis a new pup for me.

 

Seems to be another tweak I just need to overcome. But coming from being a 2 pip scalper to a long term trader in about 10 months, I'm pleased with my personal progress thus far.

 

Thanks for the encouragement and growth!

Aaron

[Tess 10]

 

Lets take a snook at yet another example. There are plenty out there every week.

 

As always, the Daily-240 will give you a little outer edge structure as far as the major grid zones are stacking up...

 

Inexperienced or novice punters will usually attempt to execute way too late or jump on a fast moving train (generally as prices are approaching supply-demand camps). Those are the sweethearts you want to be transacting business with, & by structuring your trades where previous area’s of imbalance have changed hands, you’re increasing your chances of obtaining value whilst minimizing risk.

 

Yeah sometimes they jump out atcha, other times you got to sit awhile & wait for them to come knocking.

 

But knock they will

 

There was a cool handover Monday on the Cable. Aussie has played ball too all the way through April off 9300.

[Sledge 13]

Tess-

Thanks so much for your charts. May I ask this:

 

Can you explain the "Supply/Demand Zones" in more detail. I understand that their are Zones of stalling- how does one determine if that is a supply zone or a demand zone?

 

Is the Supply Zone always at the Top and a Demand Zone always on the bottom?

OR

Is it Trend Dependant?

I.E. Downward trend = Supply Zone on Top edge of chart?

Upward Trend =Supply Zone on Bottom edge of chart?

 

Thanks

Aaron

[Sledge 13]

And run your possies wherever & whenever possible (that’s the key).

 

Andre-

What are possies? Since it is the "key" I'll man up and ask what it is, as I'm scratching me head :\

 

Thanks!

Aaron

[wasp 10]

Andre-

What are possies? Since it is the "key" I'll man up and ask what it is, as I'm scratching me head :\

 

Thanks!

Aaron

 

I imagine it is possies = positions.

[firewalker 10]

I imagine it is possies = positions.

 

Sounds logical. Was afraid this question was going to receive a different style of comment from you, wasp

[Tess 10]

Yes, wasp is correct.

Sorry for the jargon, old habits blah blah - annoying all the same.

 

Don't look too deep or over complicate the price action on those charts. Strip it right back & look for area's where price is out of whack or imbalanced.

 

Supply = resistance

Demand = support

 

That can unfold in range mode where prices ping back & forth off structured or quite visible high-low extremes, (as per the Yen graph) or as prices shoot out of a hole & attempt to cut out a trend.

 

A pullback to test the momentum will usually follow that type of activity. Buyers/sellers remorse or simply queue jumpers who then panic & fold at the 1st sign of a fade will get unseated at this juncture as the smart crowd climb aboard on the ticket out of a breakout zone.

[Sledge 13]

Yes, wasp is correct.

Sorry for the jargon, old habits blah blah - annoying all the same.

Thank you for the clarification Tess, most appreciated.

 

Don't look too deep or over complicate the price action on those charts. Strip it right back & look for area's where price is out of whack or imbalanced.

 

Supply = resistance

Demand = support

 

That can unfold in range mode where prices ping back & forth off structured or quite visible high-low extremes, (as per the Yen graph) or as prices shoot out of a hole & attempt to cut out a trend.

 

A pullback to test the momentum will usually follow that type of activity. Buyers/sellers remorse or simply queue jumpers who then panic & fold at the 1st sign of a fade will get unseated at this juncture as the smart crowd climb aboard on the ticket out of a breakout zone.

 

Thank you again- yes this helps as well. If you are in the UK you must be up REALLY late or REALLY Early!

Aaron

[Jocelyn 10]

If you are in the UK you must be up REALLY late or REALLY Early!

 

She drew the short straw (twilight shift).

It’s an excellent arrangement actually, as it ensures Andre obtains maximum possible torment value!

We got the flicking of hazelnuts off rulers onto the head area down to a fine art.

If our aim is off center, then we can revert to jawboning him into submission :haha: