Busy Day Tomorrow

[cowpip 10]

Look at those absolutely SICK shakeouts- you gotta have BALLS to trade that pair if it acts like that on a regular basis!

 

Isn't that the truth?!?! It's a big nasty battle, that's for sure. We have to be careful we don't get in the way of the big guns, or we'll get plastered.

[Sledge 13]

Isn't that the truth?!?! It's a big nasty battle, that's for sure. We have to be careful we don't get in the way of the big guns, or we'll get plastered.

 

Big Guns?! Hell that chart looks like 5 Bazooka blasts to the chest! :rofl:

 

Actually the one pair that is frustrating me to no end is the damn USD/CAD= I wish they would stop holding it up and sucking in the herd- the slaughter of long holders is inevidable, wish they would just murder all the greedy oil hugging bastards and get it overwith! I have been primed to go short for almost a week now! Grrrr

Edited June 10, 2008 by Sledge

[GammaJammer 10]

BoC to the rescue for you then (if you were able to take advantage)

 

GJ

[Sledge 13]

GJ-

Actually my trigger is at 1.0166. Looking for a long term downside. 90+ pip drop in 1 minute- wish I was in on THAT!

[GammaJammer 10]

GJ-

Actually my trigger is at 1.0166. Looking for a long term downside. 90+ pip drop in 1 minute- wish I was in on THAT!

 

I'm not sure abt that level myself. Think a touch lower is worth looking at for a short stop-entry. On pure tech grounds, if you pull up an hourly chart there's a rising channel that jumps out at you that comes in just where you would look to sell. Plus we based there yesterday, so risk / reward wise I'm not so convinced about that level

 

Just my $0.02 though. Will try n post a chart tonight / tomorrow.

 

GJ

[Sledge 13]

Gj-

I'd like to see your take on it. I'm looking at it from a daily perspective. You had a nice drop this AM, and it appears we are re-loading now for further decline. But I would like to see what your eyes see as well.

[GammaJammer 10]

I just feel down here there me some wood to chop thru 1.0170/40 before we can really crack on. A few previous lows may well form support (as well as the rising channel that I have highlighted). Plus, fundamentally, follow on from today wasn't exactly huge (all it did was take us back into the range) and the announcement from the BoC that they were leaving rates unchanged and are probably done for now genuinely caught the market on the hop, so why wasn't there more of a follow on?

 

Things that make ya go "hmmmmmmm"

 

GJ

[Sledge 13]

GJ-

Ok, here is what I see: If that daily bar doesn't scream "SHORT ME" I'm not sure what else would

[cowpip 10]

GJ-

Ok, here is what I see: If that daily bar doesn't scream "SHORT ME" I'm not sure what else would

 

No kidding! That's a very nice and clear pin-bar type setup. And on the daily frames, they can be quite powerful. Good eye, Sledge! I hope it has produced some greens for you.

[cowpip 10]

I just feel down here there me some wood to chop thru 1.0170/40 before we can really crack on. A few previous lows may well form support (as well as the rising channel that I have highlighted). Plus, fundamentally, follow on from today wasn't exactly huge (all it did was take us back into the range) and the announcement from the BoC that they were leaving rates unchanged and are probably done for now genuinely caught the market on the hop, so why wasn't there more of a follow on?

 

Things that make ya go "hmmmmmmm"

 

GJ

 

Good questions... maybe it has something to do with the fact that the US dollar was running higher at the same time? And now that the US dollar has started to slide in a retrace, the pair is seeing some larger downside action. The increase in the price of oil is undoubtably helping the CAD today as well. I don't think we're going to see a terminal drop in the USD/CAD pair. Canada is too closely tied to the fate of the US to ignore the fundamentals. Honestly, I think the US and Canadian central banks are bluffing. I don't think we'll see the US increase rates anytime soon. It's all hot air. They couldn't afford to increase rates - not when we haven't yet seen much of a hint that housing prices have bottomed. Bernanke has worked hard to prevent the housing market from collapsing into something more systemic. I doubt if he is going to be able to muster up the courage to undo what he has done and risk further economic damage by increasing rates at a time like this. Ultimately, I feel the dollar will continue to slide downwards. But then, I've been wrong a million times before... so who knows...

[GammaJammer 10]

Loonie has always been prone to doing it's own thing, against the context of a broader dollar story. Sometimes with good reason, sometimes (at least on the surface of things) less so.

[Sledge 13]

Loonie has always been prone to doing it's own thing, against the context of a broader dollar story. Sometimes with good reason, sometimes (at least on the surface of things) less so.

 

So then would you say that the Loonie is a better Technical Analysis Currency than a Fundamental Analysis Currency?

[GammaJammer 10]

Not really, and that's certainly not what I was aiming to say in my previous post. I merely meant that of all the major currencies, it is the one that imho is most prone to buck whatever trend is driving the 'big' dollar, often at inopportune times. It dances to the beat of it's own drum. For many reasons (some fundamental, some structural for want of a better word).

 

Incidentally, chart wise, my 40/50 support area the other day seemed to work ok. Hope that helped someone.

 

GJ

[cowpip 10]

Incidentally, chart wise, my 40/50 support area the other day seemed to work ok. Hope that helped someone.

 

That was a good call. You nailed that one.

[Sledge 13]

Not really, and that's certainly not what I was aiming to say in my previous post. I merely meant that of all the major currencies, it is the one that imho is most prone to buck whatever trend is driving the 'big' dollar, often at inopportune times. It dances to the beat of it's own drum. For many reasons (some fundamental, some structural for want of a better word).

 

Incidentally, chart wise, my 40/50 support area the other day seemed to work ok. Hope that helped someone.

 

GJ

 

GJ-

Hopefully I didn't come across as antagonistic, I fall into the "used to trade CAD and tried to scalp, got killed as a rookie trader, left alone for about 8 months, and am trying to trade it longer term now instead- camp"

 

I respect anyones opinion on the topic who has greater knowledge than my own. To update you on my trade- I managed to take a measly 21 pips off that trade before it started acting like a silly bird again. The landslide of profit on a short is no where to be found at the moment. :o

Sledge

[GammaJammer 10]

No problem. For what it's worth I think the hardest thing, and the thing that makes or breaks many traders, is figuring out WHY you were wrong or right on a given trade. Once you have that nailed imho you are well on your way. But it really isn't easy to see what's really driving things some days.

[Sledge 13]

. But it really isn't easy to see what's really driving things some days.

 

True.. oh so very true!

[Sledge 13]

I think Art must have sent out an inter-office memo banning posting by employees on the company dime.

 

Thread went from a #1 with a bullet to crickets chirping. :-(

[Guest forsearch]

Considering that it should be busy tomorrow on FOMC day, the timing is curious, wouldn't you say?

 

-fs

[cowpip 10]

Heh heh... their absence now completely explains why the markets I like the most have been exceptionally dull! When they go on holiday, so do the markets. At this rate, the FOMC statement tomorrow will move the markets... maybe 10 or 15 pips? :puke:

[Art Krantz 10]

I think Art must have sent out an inter-office memo banning posting by employees on the company dime.

 

It's normally a little lighter on bodies May thru July Sledge. Various combinations of them scoot off to take advantage of the hospitality marquee's at Roland Garros, Queens & Wimbledon.

 

FOMC, or any other key data print doesn't really register more than a cursory glance forsearch.

 

Positions are either squared off, bedded in or tucked well out the way if a heavy data print is on the radar.

 

A couple of them occasionally take a swipe at a price if a data print coincides with one of their watch levels, but they generally only execute after the noise & excitement wanes, if at all.

 

There's plenty of Grade A opportunities out there during a typical weeks play to strike the bat without having to rely on data prints for their corn.

[GammaJammer 10]

Really feels like summer markets right now.....

[firewalker 10]

Really feels like summer markets right now.....

 

How's that? Do you feel market participants act differently during summer months? You know I'm not that familiar with currency pairs, but last year indices had decent volume & volatility...

[BlowFish 10]

Really feels like summer markets right now.....

 

My hay fever would agree!

 

Do currencies tend to go lethargic during the summer holidays? The index futures (both Europe & US) still have a bit of fizz (well imo).

[BlowFish 10]

Spoke to soon, FTSE on tranq's this morning, I hope it's not like this for the next 2 months.