Busy Day Tomorrow

[cowpip 10]

Are people on this site pretty much wholly technical, or does anyone look at macro factors, fundamentals, market positioning, geopolitics etc?

 

 

G'day, GammaJammer. I'm sure there's a good mix of both with some folks weighting technicals more than fundamentals and visa-versa.

 

Personally, I keep one eye on the fundamentals and the other eye on the technicals. They go hand-in-hand (or should). Market sentiment is emotion-based, and that requires a good handle on the fundamentals to play properly. Anyone who ignores the technicals and fundamentals (both) is (imho), driving without stereo vision. You can still drive - but it's a lot harder to tell the distance to the next car with one eye shut.

[milliard 10]

I sure haven't lost the ability to read or keep my ears open when required that's for sure.

 

At some point I guess you need to ask yourself how much (additional info) is enough?

 

Kinda reminds me of the old saying: "what can't speak can't lie"

 

Each to their own.

[Sledge 13]

Depends where the main vibration zones are at Aaron. Daily is the usual 1st port of call. That + your 4 hour will offer most of what you require.

 

If you're then triggering off via a smaller frame template, it's merely a case of waiting around until a favorite bar or combination of set-up/price bar pops into view.

 

There's no rule say's you got to execute a trade via a 1 or 4 hour bar in order to run a position through the handles. As long as the level packs muscle, it can be fired off from a 1 minute launch pad if you got a set up which signals you in.

 

Andre-

Most appreciated- may I ask why you would not mark a Support line at the very bottom of these attached charts? Maybe waiting to see if it will touch again before making it a support line?

Aaron

[milliard 10]

may I ask why you would not mark a Support line at the very bottom of these attached charts?

 

You mean below 102.50?

 

From a purely technical perspective you can mark them up if you so wish. But prices haven’t hustled sub 102.50 since popping through in early April. That’s your initial support zone right there. I’ll worry bout the levels below that marker if & when they pressure & maybe re-test 102.50.

 

Same as the upper ceiling at 105.50

The time to start winding in the zoom on the radar is when price successfully hurdles it. You then need to monitor the behaviour of the pullbacks to the prev resistance line to check it’s a genuine b/o candidate or not.

[Sledge 13]

Andre-

Thanks for the clarification! Actually I meant at the 95.15 neighborhood.

In essence you are no where near the neighborhood- so it is safely away from treading there any time soon. Gotcha!

Aaron

[GammaJammer 10]

G'day, GammaJammer. I'm sure there's a good mix of both with some folks weighting technicals more than fundamentals and visa-versa.

 

Personally, I keep one eye on the fundamentals and the other eye on the technicals. They go hand-in-hand (or should). Market sentiment is emotion-based, and that requires a good handle on the fundamentals to play properly. Anyone who ignores the technicals and fundamentals (both) is (imho), driving without stereo vision. You can still drive - but it's a lot harder to tell the distance to the next car with one eye shut.

 

Absolutely, reason I asked today of all days is that imho it's been an interesting mix of factors driving price action today, and someone with just a focus on one out of the three core pillars (fundamentals, technicals and context) would possibly have been a star on one trade, and totally baffled and stopped out next time.

 

GJ

[milliard 10]

Thanks for the clarification! Actually I meant at the 95.15 neighborhood.

 

There are a couple pit stops ahead of the March 17 low of 95.15 where you'd definitely want to place a marker, but yeah - those area's wouldn't require attention until the initial 102.50 supports got pressured.

[Jocelyn 10]

Absolutely, reason I asked today of all days is that imho it's been an interesting mix of factors driving price action today,

 

You referring to the mish mash of ping pong oil prices/Eurozone inflationary fears/Asian CB activity Gamma? The rumor mill also tends to work overtime when there's a good helping of fundy meat on the menu.

 

Don't you find that quite often it can be a buddy to the price action, particularly if the fundies or chatter is swirling around a key level or zone? Other times it merely serves to pull the rug from under what was a decent (technical) entry or compound stake, only to re-assert itself after all the fun & games has blown itself out.

 

GBPJPY & GBPCHF were certainly 2 prime horses to be on into early European trade if you had a positive view of Sterling. The Asian CB sales were definitely weighing heavy on Cable (& Euro) again this morning.

[torero 10]

Seems EURJPY has been a deadbeat lately, always have to keep an eye on other pairs to play. I've been holding back from trading due to inaction from these. Finally, GBPCHF gave me something to trade with. Obviously I've missed the cable and $ is getting volatile again.

[GammaJammer 10]

I think that's kinda what a lot of people find tough - the market can be v fickle when it comes to what is actually being concentrated on - at some times it's rate differentials, other times it's data, other times it's risk appetite / aversion etc etc. And unless you're sitting at a big shop it's hard to get enough of a scent of what's driving things imho.

 

But I still would be extremely uncomfortable trading without an idea of what's really happening. Technical analyis alone is nowhere near enough of an explanation for me, and imho, without some idea of what's really going on, you're gambling, not trading. Which is fine if you embrace that, but it's not for me.

 

 

(now cue GJ being shot down in flames .......)

[milliard 10]

 

(now cue GJ being shot down in flames .......)

 

:o

 

I think you'll find the flames on here resemble the power of a $2 cigarette lighter than the ferocity of the industrial flame thrower more common on other forum playgrounds.

 

Besides, you make some very valid points. I doubt folks could really pick too many holes in those views.

[wasp 10]

Seems EURJPY has been a deadbeat lately, always have to keep an eye on other pairs to play. I've been holding back from trading due to inaction from these. Finally, GBPCHF gave me something to trade with. Obviously I've missed the cable and $ is getting volatile again.

 

Yep! I tend to only trade Yens these days and EURJPY has been killing me on the smaller TF's lately. Easily solved by stepping a TF or 2 and running the trades a bit longer. Whilst I would love to trade every pair going, I feel I know the yens better and whilst they may not move that differently to others, they are a different ballgame to say NOK or SEK IMO.

 

I think that's kinda what a lot of people find tough - the market can be v fickle when it comes to what is actually being concentrated on - at some times it's rate differentials, other times it's data, other times it's risk appetite / aversion etc etc. And unless you're sitting at a big shop it's hard to get enough of a scent of what's driving things imho.

 

But I still would be extremely uncomfortable trading without an idea of what's really happening. Technical analyis alone is nowhere near enough of an explanation for me, and imho, without some idea of what's really going on, you're gambling, not trading. Which is fine if you embrace that, but it's not for me.

 

(now cue GJ being shot down in flames .......)

 

Where is my lighter and that can of hairspray?! :o As I said above, I don't think you need to have all the other aspects you have available down the bank, TA alone will always do the job and whilst I'm not saying what else you look/hear isn't important, I just wouldn't say its vital to switch from being a gambler to a trader . Markets are fickle but as long as you can adapt with them (ie change TF etc) the problem is removed and happy days. IMO.

[GammaJammer 10]

Agree to a certain extent, but imho finding / honing that adaptability is far harder than people think. But it clearly seems to be working for you so good luck mate.

[wasp 10]

Agree to a certain extent, but imho finding / honing that adaptability is far harder than people think. But it clearly seems to be working for you so good luck mate.

 

Well it has taken many, many years :\

[Sledge 13]

Agree to a certain extent, but imho finding / honing that adaptability is far harder than people think. But it clearly seems to be working for you so good luck mate.

 

There are days you'll want to throw your hands up and say "**** it" But you have to press on if this is the path you really want to take. I made a very bad call and took a SHORT on GBP/CHF. Less than a week after that little darlin netted me $800 bucks in less than two hours one night- she whipped out here silly stick and kicked my ass yesterday. I didn't even get a kiss for it!

 

I won't let one trade that I didn't smarten up on sooner derail my overall desire to want to trade the pair- too much potential for money to be made in it. I just need to "feel her out" better next time! :o

 

Aaron

[cowpip 10]

Another busy week ahead, it looks like.

 

Here's the playing field as I see it for one of my favorites ($/yen). The gap down (that broke the daily inside bar) early Sunday was a nice early signal to get short once the gap filled. The hourly+ charts offered a nice signal during the asian/european session. Many of the other pairs look to have behaved well, as well.

[Sledge 13]

Alright all, after taking amy "beginners luck" strike on GBP/CHF and then having it ripped from me a few days later. I have been playing with test lots instead.

 

It appears that this pair is nice and strong and didn't appear to have any indication of a monster drop back to the floor. Anyone want to assist me in gauging the pairs personality- feel like I'm trying to get a tiger shark in the boat with a dime store fishing pole!

[GammaJammer 10]

Another busy week ahead, it looks like.

 

Here's the playing field as I see it for one of my favorites ($/yen). The gap down (that broke the daily inside bar) early Sunday was a nice early signal to get short once the gap filled. The hourly+ charts offered a nice signal during the asian/european session. Many of the other pairs look to have behaved well, as well.

 

Out of interest - what are all those millions of lines close together near the highs on your chart? Couldn't quite make them out. They manually drawn S/R, fibos or what?

 

GJ

 

edit - actually they could be pivot points I'm thinking.

Edited June 2, 2008 by GammaJammer
Doh!

[cowpip 10]

edit - actually they could be pivot points I'm thinking.

 

Yep, you nailed it. It's the daily pivot and the associated R1/2/3 S1/2/3 levels. They're nice to use as assists for entries when I zoom in to take a position. Sorry they cluttered it up. I didn't turn them off before grabbing that image.

[GammaJammer 10]

Haha no worries - looks like you nailed it - good work

[Sledge 13]

Wasp-

Try to hear me through all the money surrounding you if you were set-up Long on the GBP/JPY today- 400 Pips! Damn!

[cowpip 10]

Wasp-

Try to hear me through all the money surrounding you if you were set-up Long on the GBP/JPY today- 400 Pips! Damn!

 

That puppy ran and ran and ran... I missed it myself (grrr). Congrats to those who caught it.

 

Whoever guessed $/yen would see a complete and full retrace of Friday's move is prescient! Some sort of a retrace I expected, sure... but not a full retrace in one day. I never thought we would see that - not with a gap lower open. And now, we have what appears to my eyes to be an expanding triangle on the daily charts of $/yen... It's a whippy little bugger.

 

Correction: ascending triangle, not expanding.

[Sledge 13]

Cowpip-

Tell me about it, you have got to know that currency like the back of your had to have called that SOB.

 

Well another volitle little bugger is that AUD/JPY, been keeping my eye on it just to see how it plays- look at this chart. Anything stick out to you? Anything at all?

 

[cowpip 10]

Nothing there for me, Sledge. Today was a tough one for me - this move higher for the dollar has me completely stumped. But that's ok. I'll just realign my radar.

[Sledge 13]

Nothing there for me, Sledge. Today was a tough one for me - this move higher for the dollar has me completely stumped. But that's ok. I'll just realign my radar.

 

Look at those absolutely SICK shakeouts- you gotta have BALLS to trade that pair if it acts like that on a regular basis!