Busy Day Tomorrow

[Jocelyn 10]

 

Sure, you got to possess a real tight template in the first place to offer the confidence & belief to hit the gas every time your analysis & research pitches a likely opportunity onto the radar. But if you don’t back your views & stick to your guns, you’re gonna miss the home runs.

 

 

 

Talking of sticking to views, that post which Tessa hauled up of Jimmy’s GBPAUD possie yesterday is a good example of taking action, backing your view (& unless events really turn sour), sticking to your guns.

 

Repetative behaviour & a sound belief structure (some folks might call it adopting an action plan). That little combo will take you an awful long way up the ladder if you’ve a mind to act on it.

 

I'm sorry kiwi & forsearch but I just couldn't resist. My lil old fingers were just itching to haul this up here when I caught his post this mornin.

 

I'm gonna pull my chair up next to Andre just in case you old boys come crashing in here with your pointy white hats/robes & waving your fire torches - you'll have to get thru him first & by golly he can stretch himself up a ways if he cares to :o

 

if ianp was watching this story unfold then he got him a sweet piece of pie with his artilliary.

 

In fact you snagged it twice if it was high on your radar. Depending on your risk appetite you got 2 platforms to exit the train too

 

You might not have engineered the 2nd entry (or compound stake) via the higher low shift due to the time of day. But I guess that depends on how much you like your bed?

 

(they're 15m graphs by the way).

[pipMonster 10]

Hi Jocelyn,

 

Would be so kind as to tell me what your Cci settings are?

 

Thanks a million,

 

Jack

[Art Krantz 10]

 

I'm gonna pull my chair up next to Andre just in case you old boys come crashing in here with your pointy white hats/robes & waving your fire torches - you'll have to get thru him first & by golly he can stretch himself up a ways if he cares to :o

 

The amount of pain you two have inflicted on his ear drums this week I wouldn't hold your breath

 

 

That'll be a 14 setting on that cci Jack.

[ianp 10]

[quote name=

 

if ianp was watching this story unfold then he got him a sweet piece of pie with his artilliary.

 

.

 

Hi Jocelyn.

 

Been doing other stuff the last couple of days , so I missed those moves,which is a pity.

 

I am looking at price hitting Support/resistance zones at the same time to make it a better play, Like this one setting up on aud.usd

 

Ian

[Jocelyn 10]

Yep, the more back up you got the better the odds.

 

That pair is in a determined bullish trot at present & that 9550 represents another higher low leg, you might want to keep a keen eye on it. But at least you can open your parachute if it starts to get away from you

 

That's definitely the type of analysis that will pay dividends though (matching a trigger up with sensible price action geography).

 

Hope this one fills your + column for you.

[GammaJammer 10]

Yes, wasp is correct.

Sorry for the jargon, old habits blah blah - annoying all the same.

 

Don't look too deep or over complicate the price action on those charts. Strip it right back & look for area's where price is out of whack or imbalanced.

 

Supply = resistance

Demand = support

 

.

 

Can I be really pedantic here and say I don't wholly agree with your assertion.

 

I think that to say supply = resistance is to over simplify the situation. Supply will only constitute resistance if it is in a sufficient quantity, and manifests itself in an appropriate way, to turn or contain the price action.

 

As an example, two different traders could sell a billion EUR/USD and have two very different effects on the market. In both cases supply was the same (a billion euros) but when you look at the chart afterwards, one case would show resistance up at the level where the selling place, while the other very well might not.

 

And this isn't a textbook, theory only example either. I see it happening absolutely every day in the market, for various reasons. And in my own particular market (FX), the absence of hard stats for volume (at least at the sort of intraday, time and sales level we're talking about here) makes this sort of assertion difficult to refute. But I'm having a go at doing so anyway

 

(all in the name of friendly debate you understand - not aimed at anyone in particular, especially not the folks that are making us T2W people welcome at TL).

 

My $0.02 as always

 

GJ

[milliard 10]

I think that to say supply = resistance is to over simplify the situation. Supply will only constitute resistance if it is in a sufficient quantity, and manifests itself in an appropriate way, to turn or contain the price action.

 

Yeah I agree, she has simplified it.

 

I think perhaps it was relayed more to draw a bit of a line than an ouright factual statement, but that can be just as dangerous as not explaining the gig fully.

 

I wouldn't worry too much about ruffling their feathers Gamma, their skins popped out of the womb already primed with double elephant thick grade :o

 

Nothing wrong with healthy communication. That's what forum life is all about.

[Sledge 13]

I think perhaps it was relayed more to draw a bit of a line than an ouright factual statement, but that can be just as dangerous as not explaining the gig fully.

 

Any chance you may shed some light on this- I would like to see the entire "gig" :o

Thanks in advance Andre!

Aaron

[milliard 10]

:o you're thanking the wrong man aren't you?

 

Personally, the terms dominant bid/offered...support/resistance would blanket most of the scenario's discussed in relation to the charts posted here of late.

 

Anyhow, I guess the discussion can be carried forward. Those two are well gone & undoubtedly wrestling with their 3rd jug of beer by now. It's Friday, @ 2.45 leading into a bank holiday Friday & I too have an app't in the bar before they drink it dry.

 

Enjoy your weekends & leave a little booty for the rest of us till next week

[GammaJammer 10]

No fair - I'm still very much stuck on the desk. Nothing going on, still can't leave. Oh well, my own fault for being a wage slave

 

GJ

[milliard 10]

 

Never mind GJ, just think of the flashy wheels & top floor views all that booty (bonus) will provide this year

 

Enjoy the fabulous British sun...ooops I mean rain this holiday w/end :o

[GammaJammer 10]

Who cares - gonna be in the pub with some old mates

 

And as for flashy wheels etc, hmmmmmmm.

[Sledge 13]

Even with a US holiday looming GBP/CHF is affording me an opportunity to go long tonight. Market gapped open high tonight. Waited for the gap to close and went Long @ 2.0286

 

No target on this one. I'm going to work on my ability to ride out the run and only exit when it appears to be at an end. Pretty safe trade to do so with the bottom of the barrel being scraped not so long ago.

 

Aaron

[torero 10]

You would think London would have a field day with the yanks´shops closed up today like other times. Glad I took the day off.

[GammaJammer 10]

You missed one vital piece of information - London were also closed

[torero 10]

Really? What holiday was it over there? No wonder the price movement was deader than normal.

[wasp 10]

We had a Spring Bank Holiday! (it rained al day!) :rofl:

 

http://www.woodlands-junior.kent.sch.uk/customs/questions/bankholidays.html

 

(first link I found for UK holidays! - actually quite a good little site for UK info on 2nd look!)

[nqtraderman 10]

We had a Spring Bank Holiday! (it rained al day!) :rofl:

 

 

That depends on where you where .. in the North, we had lovely sunshine all BH

 

[Sledge 13]

Well that badboy (GBP/CHF) has been whipping around like a dog. Decided to close out one position at +37 pips and closed out the other this afternoon at an 8 pip profit. Didn't hit target of 2.0393

 

So I'll wait for EOD and re-assess.

[Sledge 13]

Well that badboy (GBP/CHF) has been whipping around like a dog. Decided to close out one position at +37 pips and closed out the other this afternoon at an 8 pip profit. Didn't hit target of 2.0393

 

So I'll wait for EOD and re-assess.

 

Well and of course between 12:00 noon and EOD it spiked to 2.0444 :doh:

DAMN!

[Sledge 13]

Quick question for the UK crew:

What timeframe chart do you use to mark your major S&R levels?

240 minute or Daily?

Aaron

[milliard 10]

Depends where the main vibration zones are at Aaron. Daily is the usual 1st port of call. That + your 4 hour will offer most of what you require.

 

If you're then triggering off via a smaller frame template, it's merely a case of waiting around until a favorite bar or combination of set-up/price bar pops into view.

 

There's no rule say's you got to execute a trade via a 1 or 4 hour bar in order to run a position through the handles. As long as the level packs muscle, it can be fired off from a 1 minute launch pad if you got a set up which signals you in.

[milliard 10]

If you want to stay specific to the Pound/Swiss pair regards near term potential s&r, Anna-Maria posted something towards the end of April tick boxing her next watch zone.

 

I’ve hauled up the graph from that post to show her reasonings (looking for a higher low shoulder). Sure, it’s only her view & it’s specific for what she was looking for on that pair. But it’s important to leg in on high value/low risk if you’re seeking to get a head start on testing a zone of activity. That way, you're maximizing your potential profit if you're on the money & you got a valid (technical) reason to bail if it fails to kick.

 

Her ‘head start’ on the value punt was back a ways at that .0155 zone & again on it’s next higher low step off .0240 (last week & yesterday) as it blipped back on the radar.

 

If the price action conforms to the original analysis as & when it re-visits a zone of interest, then there’s no reason not to take it on.

 

How you manage it once you’re in is down to your own personal risk/model profile, but unless price washes out or the short-end fundamentals get whacked, it’s usually best to leave it alone & allow it go about it’s business.

 

The only other reason it'll get scratched is if it's getting batted around a tight range channel or corridor. No point in tying good money up on the half chance it'll kick on. But then, as with the risk v/s value gig, it's down to personal profiles.

[Sledge 13]

Milliard-

Thank you sir once again! And thanks for re-posting and refreshing my memory on the GBP/CHF!

Aaron

[GammaJammer 10]

Are people on this site pretty much wholly technical, or does anyone look at macro factors, fundamentals, market positioning, geopolitics etc?

 

Just curious

 

GJ