Busy Day Tomorrow

[Sledge 13]

Anna-

Wish we had some sun- tis gloomy and rainy here in the Hoosier state for the past few days.

 

Any idea what the "(E)" notation stands for?

Thanks!

Aaron

[Guest forsearch]

Anna-

Wish we had some sun- tis gloomy and rainy here in the Hoosier state for the past few days.

 

Any idea what the "(E)" notation stands for?

Thanks!

Aaron

 

Sure, it's elementary :rofl:

 

Seriously, though, the "E" here refers to the electronic traded contract, versus the pit-traded version.

 

-fs

[Sledge 13]

Anna had posted a chart (it was a longer timeframe) about a screaming example of a signal to buy. While scrolling through my charts this AM, I stumbled upon this gem screaming --BUY ME-- and I thought I would share.

 

[torero 10]

I went short this AM on this one. Oh well. I have to stick to my guns and with my analysis. Could be a dud though.

[cowpip 10]

I went short this AM on this one. Oh well. I have to stick to my guns and with my analysis. Could be a dud though.

 

And that's why trading is so diverse! Everyone has a different take on the landscape.

[torero 10]

Takes every kind of people to make the market go 'round, doesn't it? At this point it could go either way though.

[cowpip 10]

Takes every kind of people to make the market go 'round, doesn't it? At this point it could go either way though.

 

I agree. It looks pretty two-wayish to me as well. Personally, I'd favor further downside on cable, but to be honest, that pair isn't currently on my radar. It's just a little too whippy for my liking. Good luck to the two of you. I hope you can both benefit from the price action (if that's not asking too much).

[Sledge 13]

Torero-

Here is the thing. You get to sit and watch the trade and can react quickly to get out either at a profit or a loss. Unfortunately, I'm stuck away from my platform for the next 4 hours, so I have to look at it from a longer term perspective. If you are short- right now you are in the green as my check a minute ago shows it has posted to 1.9409. But some volitility news is heading our way in about 23 minutes!

 

Cowpip:

Well if you look at the daily yesterday. It is a BEAUTIFUL hammer closing as an up bar. I am looking that this AM's rash of news releases may push more bears into the hole, but I'm pretty confident that we should see some upward movement over the next few days (we aren't talking 2.1100 here), as it has tested a previous supply area over the last 48 hours a number of times.

Sledge

[cowpip 10]

Well if you look at the daily yesterday. It is a BEAUTIFUL hammer closing as an up bar. I am looking that this AM's rash of news releases may push more bears into the hole, but I'm pretty confident that we should see some upward movement over the next few days (we aren't talking 2.1100 here), as it has tested a previous supply area over the last 48 hours a number of times.

 

Yes, you could easily be right. That daily pattern could easily turn into a nice pin-bar type of pattern that would reverse well off of the lows. A similar pattern has also developed on the 4-hour, but is at risk of being invalidated if it moves much further south.

 

The jury is still very definitely out on this one, obviously.

 

As I said - everyone has their own view of this. That's a healthy thing.

[Sledge 13]

Well- I weathered the storm through the NY AM markdown and took 30 pips on the trade on a 2.00 lot. Got home for lunch, saw it stalling and closed out.

 

Will wait to see if we re-test later today or overnight!

Sledge

[cowpip 10]

Well- I weathered the storm through the NY AM markdown and took 30 pips on the trade on a 2.00 lot. Got home for lunch, saw it stalling and closed out.

 

Will wait to see if we re-test later today or overnight!

Sledge

 

Nicely done, Sledge! I hope you took profit not specifically because it was "pausing" but because it gave you an indication it was going to reverse, or at the very least hit your target (a prior S/R level)?

 

Congrats!

[Sledge 13]

Cowpip-

Well I guess there are two camps of thought- some folks think traders should buy in, stay on the trade until it's very peak or bottom- riding all the retracements and adding into their positions. Others are very happy to bank $ and not ride out the pullback- but utilize it to potentially get in again- if the circumstances warrant.

 

At the moment- with it hammering out supply on this bottom, it could easily reverse. What I saw to get me out of this- a fairly nasty upthrust, next bar was another upthrust, third bar was a down bar closing on the low. I say I took the good bus today. As I said, I'll re-assess tonight and see where we are. In the next 3 hours I will let it get its crap out of its system, if it gives me another point of entry, I'll take it, if not-- I banked 30 pips on a part time schedule (I made 6X what I'll make all day at my day job for about 4 hours of trading work)

 

Sledge

[Sledge 13]

Ok I don't have my platform here at work, so here is a 10 minute (I get a choice of a 10 min or an Hour to choose from) Was looking at 1 Hr and 30 Min charts at home to strategize exit.

 

Here is me crappy artwork:

GBP_5-15-08.bmp

 

Wise like a fox to trot on this one

[torero 10]

Yeah, I got stopped out on the short trade yesterday. Wasn't surprised considering been taking small losses all week this week. I admit I don't do range plays well. Tough to move range to trend to range mentality, seems it's too late when the mind is set to trade it, market changes its face.:bang head: Ah, the labor of market love...

[Sledge 13]

Yeah, I got stopped out on the short trade yesterday. Wasn't surprised considering been taking small losses all week this week. I admit I don't do range plays well. Tough to move range to trend to range mentality, seems it's too late when the mind is set to trade it, market changes its face.:bang head: Ah, the labor of market love...

 

Torero-

Depending on your entry, when we were in the heat of discussion yesterday AM (Opening of NY,) you should have been in the green pretty tight! I think it dipped to 1.9404 before it decided to climb out of its hole. What was your entry and stop out level?

Sledge

[cowpip 10]

Wise like a fox to trot on this one

 

That looked like a wise exit, Sledge. Right at the top of prior resistance (I don't know what the hourly charts looked like, but I suspect it was probably at resistance on those levels too?) Nicely done!

 

I guess my main point is that trading should not be done haphazardly, entering and exiting on a whim, particularly for those only trading part-time (structure and strict obedience to your plan is essential). After seeing your exit point on the charts, I can see that you didn't exit on a whim. There was a good reason to do so.

 

For those who are only able to look at the charts periodically during the day, it might be wiser to take entries based on the longer time-frames (4+ hour charts) using smaller size, larger stops and larger targets. Yes, it takes longer for setups to appear, but it is generally a safer way to play these volatile instruments. Just a thought...

[Sledge 13]

Cowpip-

Yes sir, I failed to mention that- duh, sorry- yes not only upthrusts, but topping action at a huge resistance level of the near past. That may have helped huh? Thanks for filling in the blanks- I thought it, forgot to say it!

 

Charts: I actually do use a 4 hour chart for entry. But I always drill down to an hour chart or even a 30 minute chart if I see stalling. That gives me the information I need to make my "exit stage right" decision

 

If that didn't get hit with upthrust after upthrust, I would have stayed in. Last night in London it didn't do squat- but as you look today in NY- the GBP is up, and up fast. I am without a position at the moment. And I may very well have to wait for a pullback even now- before entering Long. I missed the train this AM NY session... damn job! :o I gotta get out of this place!

Sledge

[cowpip 10]

Yeah, I got stopped out on the short trade yesterday. Wasn't surprised considering been taking small losses all week this week. I admit I don't do range plays well. Tough to move range to trend to range mentality, seems it's too late when the mind is set to trade it, market changes its face.:bang head: Ah, the labor of market love...

 

It sure is, isn't it? We all have episodes like that, Torero. It can be extremely frustrating, but there's a reason for it - so the sooner you can identify the problem, the quicker you'll get back on the horse. When I suffer episodes of losses, I sit back and closely examine all of my trades and what the market was doing. It often gives me insight into what I am doing wrong and lets me make adjustments to get the "edge" back. Usually, my mistakes occur when I start fighting the trend (or when the trend is in the process of reversing direction and I fail to recognize it). As long as you keep your losses small and the frequency of your trades low during such periods, you'll live to trade another day, right?

 

Take care! Have a great weekend, everyone!

[cowpip 10]

If that didn't get hit with upthrust after upthrust, I would have stayed in. Last night in London it didn't do squat- but as you look today in NY- the GBP is up, and up fast. I am without a position at the moment. And I may very well have to wait for a pullback even now- before entering Long. I missed the train this AM NY session... damn job! :o I gotta get out of this place!

 

Don't rush the process, Sledge. It takes time and patience to master this. But it's well worth it when you do.

 

You are very smart not to chase this train, Sledge. Good job! Let it go. Be patient. There are a myriad of other trains out there to hop on. You don't need to get run over by the tail end of this one. Wait for a pull-back, or another reversal somewhere higher (whichever way you judge provides the least friction). Retaining your capital should be priority #1.

 

Take'r easy guys!

[Sledge 13]

Don't rush the process, Sledge. It takes time and patience to master this. But it's well worth it when you do.

 

You are very smart not to chase this train, Sledge. Good job! Let it go. Be patient. There are a myriad of other trains out there to hop on. You don't need to get run over by the tail end of this one. Wait for a pull-back, or another reversal somewhere higher (whichever way you judge provides the least friction). Retaining your capital should be priority #1.

 

Take'r easy guys!

 

Cowpip:

I agree with you. Let me tell you that throughout this journey of trading. "Chasing the train" was by far the hardest thing for me personally to overcome. Learning the mechanics of trading seemed reasonable- not easy, but reasonable to learn and comprehend.

 

See for me, my success at the beginning was my LACK of greed! Let me say that again. My Lack of greed. Unaware that I was doing what all of the rest of the herd did (see large bar = CHASE!!) My strategy at that time (seems so long ago) was to take my $50, or $80 and get out. My lack of greed actually kept me alive! Ironic isn't it? I had no idea that even though I was "winning" my trades- I was getting the crumbs! I soul searched and said "What is it that I am doing wrong?" "I am right on the trade direction- but I'll never become an outstanding trader- taking $20 here or $30 there."

 

2008 Present: Now I work to poise myself to be in, at the appropriate level- BEFORE that bar or set of bars hit. I ride those big bars until I see it start to stall. When it stalls, I generally bank my winnings and I let the thrill-seekers, daredevils, greedy or the herd take the scraps. While they are picking up the crumbs from the sandwich and making the "hard pips" I am already looking for the next set-up. It allows my mind to say "Ok, good trade, nicely executed- let's wait for XYZ to happen and get ready to get in again!"

 

Trading from a longer timeframe also helps trememdously to be able to execute this without sweating out every 5 pip up or down move :o

 

Have a good weekend as well! See you Monday!

Sledge

[torero 10]

It's part of testing the market. So losses like these tell something. I don't worry about it as these are small losses. As long as I don't get angry or complacent about it, I'm ok. When the test finally proves to be right, I'll move more in. Have a good weekend, hopefully next week will be better.

[Sledge 13]

Torero-

I was given some wonderful advice in my travels that has stuck with me over time. I was told that if I have a loss- to not only analyze the loss, but possibly move my position size down until I get back into my rhythem.

 

So as an example- if you trade a 2.00 lot on a daily basis. Move your next market entry to a .50 lot or a 1.00 lot. This way you can work back into your "groove" and if for some reason you are still in a "funk" and do lose again- the results will be less detrimental to your account balance!

 

Sledge

[Guest forsearch]

. I was told that if I have a loss- to not only analyze the loss, but possibly move my position size down until I get back into my rhythem.

 

+1

 

Must agree here, wholeheartedly.

 

Always take the time to look at your losses and find out if you were executing your plan properly, or whether you got sloppy and cut corners on your entry or exit.

 

And check your assumptions too. You might find that your chosen plan of action is flawed to begin with. Time to revamp and find another approach if that's the case.

 

-fs

[Jocelyn 10]

Well I guess there are two camps of thought- some folks think traders should buy in, stay on the trade until it's very peak or bottom- riding all the retracements and adding into their positions.

 

Others are very happy to bank $ and not ride out the pullback- but utilize it to potentially get in again- if the circumstances warrant.

 

And it can often make life a little easier to arrive at your decision of choice if you got your near side top & bottom access points to hand.

 

They won't all require running & compounding, particularly if price is engaged within tight constraints. You got choices then as to how hard inside a range you wish to play it.

 

Alternatively, if prices are stretching out into a nice technical jog up or down the ladder & price re-visits a previous area of conflict, you can wait see if the handover of money is taking place. You'll often witness very obvious weak hands operating (buying/selling) at precisely the incorrect time.

 

God knows why, but they'll be buying at a previous area of supply & vice versa. If you got these short & long range grids pre-marked, you can begin preparing as price pops back & forth testing for re-engagement.

 

You don't always require to transact the deal via the big timeframe graph, just map it out & trigger the deal off a smaller, more appropriate timeframe if you get a valid buy or sell ticket.

 

You can work through a good few pairings too to whittle down the prime candidates. 4, 8 & 12 hour graphs offer you a calmer work surface to plot your action zones, then it's simply a case of waiting till the party comes to town.

 

And when things get washed out, you got a clear view of where you need to bail out

 

I chose the Jap, Swiss & Aussie on this gig, no other reason than they offered the brighter & clearer views.

[wasp 10]

I don't know what to say but wow!

 

Having come from 3 years at T2W, I have never read so much useful and informative information in one thread.

 

Some absolute gems in there and I'm just going to read it all again and see if there's much/anything I can even add

 

As Louis Balfour from the fast show jazz club would say...... Nice!

 

I'll just chuck in an alternate view for now, which I look at incorporating a trend view too.

Edited May 17, 2008 by wasp