Busy Day Tomorrow

[torero 10]

Hi guys,

 

Just checked the economic schedule for tomorrow. From what I see the rate is schedule to be released at 8:30am ET. Is it me or it's not the normal hour right? Looks like USD, CAD, EUR and GBP will all have their own news. This is probably the first time since started trading currencies I've seen so much news coincided at the same time. Was this intentional?

[Anna-Maria 10]

Hi torero,

 

We got UK rates showing as midday London, EU as 12.45 London & the statement at 13.30 (as usual).

 

Stateside Trade Balance/Unempl Claims are twinned alongside the Canadian Trade numbers, but that's the only dual print I got on my radar today.

[torero 10]

The data schedule must be wrong then. Seems nothing is moving.... hmmm.

 

Changing the subject here a bit. I know USD has been the only one taking beating against other currencies. Seems the GBP has been hit hard as well. Is there growing sentiment against the UK economy and the currency itself? The Brits I'm sure are kicking themselves for not having joined the Euro currency or am I assuming too much?

[BlowFish 10]

The pound has being weak for a while. The only currency it seems relatively strong against is the $. Perhaps its fairer to say the $ is "more weak". I have to say it is starting to concern me as most of my assets are in sterling. One of our major mortgage lenders announced yesterday that housing prices dropped 2.5% last month, the largest drop in 15 years, no surprise there. Of course the rate cut was pretty much anticipated and I would have guessed priced in. Worrying times and I think I should be paying closer attention to what the currencies are doing on a broader scale.

[torero 10]

I think the real estate market has been the backbone of the growth in Spain but when it's been deflating faster than expected because most don't take into account the GBP being so weak against the €, so the big percentage of tourism and demand from the Brits have been unaccounted for. So everyone is using the word "crisis" already. This is the reason why I'm asking whether the Brits are now tempted to go US or Eastern Europe for holidays rather than the Eurozone.

[Anna-Maria 10]

I know USD has been the only one taking beating against other currencies. Seems the GBP has been hit hard as well. Is there growing sentiment against the UK economy and the currency itself?

 

The Kingdom aren't in such a bad state of health really torero.

 

Both sets of economies (U.S & UK) are attempting to juggle & balance 2 very real threats to their respective forward book levels: Inflation & growth.

 

Those twin conflicts will cause awful turbulence as one attempts to wrestle priority from the other. Trouble is, both rank as pretty major soothsayers.

 

The credit crunch has simply magnified & added to the problem. Sure, UK has it’s internal conflicts to damp down, property valuations being one of them, but that was a balloon ready to deflate even a couple yrs back.

 

It’ll re-calibrate itself & the Treasury will come through it relatively stable. In the meantime speculators will feed from the trough, which is exactly what they’re primed to do.

 

The Chief Bank have got themselves a half decent management team in old Merv King & his merry gang of bandits.

 

Currencies, as with most classes, find their own fair value levels. When the sterling is good & done flushing thru the pipe, it’ll let us know.

 

Till then, ratchet it back & forth along it’s range boundaries & let the powers that be worry bout sailing the economic ship!

 

There are some very clear & tradeable levels on the Pound (v/s the buck) to get stuck into. The volatility is also opening the ranges v/s other pairs too, as the respective economies blow-off against each other.

 

All good food for the speculator & those prepared to cast their lines out

[milliard 10]

 

Currencies, as with most classes, find their own fair value levels. When the sterling is good & done flushing thru the pipe, it’ll let us know.

 

Till then, ratchet it back & forth along it’s range boundaries & let the powers that be worry bout sailing the economic ship!

 

There are some very clear & tradeable levels on the Pound (v/s the buck) to get stuck into. The volatility is also opening the ranges v/s other pairs too, as the respective economies blow-off against each other.

 

All good food for the speculator & those prepared to cast their lines out

 

That's the thing right there Annie Oakley. Absorb enough of the outlying to add a little flavor to the pot. Too much spice & you kill the dish

 

Folks need to be mindful of overdosing on both technical as well as fundamental diets.

 

It's all very well understanding & appreciating the complexities of these economic scenarios - but you got to know how you're going to actually trade that info.

 

Not such an easy transition for most.

[Art Krantz 10]

Till then, ratchet it back & forth along it’s range boundaries & let the powers that be worry bout sailing the economic ship!

 

There are some very clear & tradeable levels on the Pound (v/s the buck) to get stuck into.

 

All good food for the speculator & those prepared to cast their lines out

 

The range tiers have certainly worked through the rolling year with easy access markers. This next 2nd to 2nd quarter could well require a lower tier insert before too long me thinks.

 

Looks like it’s setting up for a fire fight back at the big daddy 1.94 zone.

 

Those closing daily lower tops don’t make for a good smoke signal at all. Best get your Bull armour out & clean her down Andre, you ole boys might be in for a skirmish or two at the next full moon!!

[milliard 10]

The range tiers have certainly worked through the rolling year with easy access markers. This next 2nd to 2nd quarter could well require a lower tier insert before too long me thinks.

 

Oh I don't doubt that Arty, I don't doubt that at all. But, along with one or two others, that pair has got a little crowded & cramped inside current range boundaries. Stops have been tripping over each other left & right.

 

EURGBP has been the far less stressful option to engage Sterling combat.

 

"Confucius he say: “if prices resemble avalanche on mountain path, retrace steps & walk smoother road"

 

Don't ya just love that old fella

[torero 10]

Ha ha! Funny quote!

 

I've been dabbing with GBPCHF and seems to move a bit better (smaller timeframes, not sure what frames you guys trade from). Lots of spunk. For last few months, this baby has seen some real action, big drops. That's why I asked about GBP or is it the CHF that's seeing strength?

[Art Krantz 10]

Yeah, he's so sharp he'll end up slicing a chunk out of himself if he aint careful torero :o

 

We don't really have occasion to drill down (observe) into anything smaller than a 240 very often to be honest. The bigger windows tend to offer clearer views of the ball game if you get my drift.

 

Anna-Maria will have a little game of tag on a sub hourly every so often if a real juicy Grade A opp presents itself, but it's a minority play.

 

Pound is an easy sell v/s it's close cousins, as you're witnessing via your technical maps. Swiss was an underperformer coming into 08 & is merely playing catch up. The global fall-out isn't doing it any harm, but it has it's own internal fundamentals to address.

 

It requires (along with all the others) close inspection as it buffers the technical reaction levels, as players will be eyeing the "next tasty treat". EUR is currently whipping it back off it's 3 year range pitch with that big weekly retreat during March.

 

Just keep noting your strong v/s weak hit list, & position yourself accordingly (if you roll your trades on?). I wouldn't know what advice to offer on an intra-day perspective as we simply don't sing to that tune.

 

I guess your technical map (levels from the big frames) will tell you which zone of activity is bossing the flows as players lighten up & head to the sidelines for a better guage.

 

Nothing changes as liquidation goes thru it's motions. The fast money will get checked out & the real flows will pick up the slack.

[torero 10]

Since I only play the small timeframes the technicals is all I need (except for news time) but am interested in the behind the scene policies that affect these currencies in the higher timeframes. It seems the $ has been pushing off 1.59 three times on 240-min charts. Interesting how well it can fend it off again next week. I'm still leaning on the resistance being broken (ascending triangle forming on 240-min). Thanks all for the insight, nice breath of fresh air to see what the big guys are thinking.

[Bearbull 10]

folks, have you got any preferences , trading forex or currency futures(regulated on CME), could you recommend any sound brokers.

 

also do any of you use futuresbetting, understand the company based in Gibraltar, has gone into liquidation.

[torero 10]

Sorry bearbull, I'm not familiar with spreadbetting and futuresbetting orgs in UK or Gibraltar. All of my accounts are in US as I'm more familiar with their laws and consumer rights. I trade forex, not currency futures, just because there are more pairs to trade from than futures. Brownsfan and a few others do trade currency futures. They trade the most popular and liquid so no sense in trading forex right? I think futures are a bit cheaper on the commission side.

[milliard 10]

I'm afraid we can't assist either Bearbull, sorry. We don't trade futures.

 

We execute via Prime Broker streams, so I can't help regards retail outlets either.

 

I know Anna has come across folks operating through HotspotFXi & London Cap. If you're looking at playing the cash, you might want to give them a holler? She'll be back in the office later, I'll send her in here to confirm.

[Sledge 13]

Art, Milliard, and Anna-Marie-

Thank you for the commentary, since I tend to trade the GBP/USD these posts confirm my own analysis- thank goodness to be correct along with much more "seasoned" (but not too seasoned) folks! :o

Sledge

[Art Krantz 10]

I'm not too sure how much use our far sighted views will be to you Sledge, but I assume (if) you're playing it from the short side off these lower top fades, then you've got the breeze at your back for now.

 

Like Andre mentioned, euro/pound is a decent companion to your Cable trade as Sterling takes on water.

 

Long as you're banking dollars & your risk is in line, then you're heading in the right direction I guess.

[Sledge 13]

Art-

Well I have learned over my trading "career" to look outward from the market (Zooming out to higher timeframe) as you and Anna and Milliard collectively do.

 

For me everything starts with a Daily chart, then a 4 hr. Only drilling down for oil I do is to pinpoint entry or stops. I stopped smacking my head on the 1 minute wall a while back- and boy does it make trades much more rewarding and less stressful!

 

And yes, banking dollars is key that some seem to forget to do. I take what the market gives me. I set a reasonable target-- say that is 100 pips, if it gets to 98 and stalls hard. I bank $ and wait for the next set-up. Some newer traders won't deviate from that 100 pip target and end up with less than my 98- or are really stubborn and let it fall into negative territory because they "KNOW ;-)" it will eventually get to their target. All the while I'm sitting there counting my 98 and planning my next move- while they sweat the trade from hell they have placed themselves in.

 

As you informed Andre, the Bull Armor will have to come out soon, I don't foresee the ability for this to get down to the 1.94 level right now, just doesn't have enough steam behind the down move to get there. Although every retail bucketshop is herding their followers that this badboy is on its way to 1.93 or even 1.85- yikes! As you said next quarter- yes it is a definate possibility, but it will have to rise up to build momentum to plow through that wall of 1.97XX but hey, there are plenty of purchasers for shorts out there for you to folks to sell too.

 

Sledge

Edited April 11, 2008 by Sledge

[milliard 10]

You mentioned you focus exclusively on the old Cable Sledge. Is there a specific reason you remain loyal to that grizzly son of a bitch?

 

Sterling has represented pretty neat value selling it via Yen, Euro & especially the Franc.

 

Some real sweet technical zones have been tagged & bagged on those 3 during last quarter. By comparison, & typically - Cable has bucked & snorted like the irksome camel it is.

 

Just curious really.

[Sledge 13]

Milliard-

Well the story goes something like this.

1. Newbie trader gets the bug from a relative that trades currency.

 

2. Newbie begins to demo trade and open about 8 different windows of every currency flavor.

 

3. Newbie trader doesn't realize that each currency has its own "personality" and attempts to trade them all the same. (Ouch!)

 

4. Newbie is drawn to USD/JPY and as soon as nice win comes in- Yen Spanks new trader down to the floor and takes all winnings away.

 

5. Over time and steep learning curve, I get to the point of analysis of my own trades. I create a spreadsheet of what currencies I excel at, and which ones are "not going so well."

 

6. I narrow down the list to the EUR, GBP and CHF

 

7. I then realize that the GBP hours fit the best for my schedule. Since the London market is the Major market for currency and a ton of volume is traded in GBP during the London session it made logical sense. Additionally, I have access to most major "news time" events- I don't trade the news but as an example, yesterday with the rate decision coming out- I was still at home able to make any adjustments necessary before heading off to the day Job. I am also able to get a nice feel from my JOB-EOD (4:30 EST to about 11:00 PM EST) to see how the market played out in NY and what the "lull time" drift is telling me (NY Close until say bedtime.- have to sleep sometime I guess)

 

8. If the lull time is to my liking, I place a trade and let it be ready for the London open.

 

9. To me, the GBP doesn't whip and dip like a CAD or JPY, it is not the flavor of the day currency like the EUR. The AUD and NZD are just not very interesting to me for some reason so I stay away from them. I have never gotten into crosses, but as I am much more seasoned now than before- I may dabble into them. I have not ever traded a cross in all the time I have been trading- maybe time to get familiar with a few.

 

10. Best answer. I can get in with a nice rythem with the GBP, I have a good feel for it and it GENERALLY behaves itself. I agree with you, this month thus far has been a nasty little ride, I have been taking "base hits" much more than making nice "home runs" But it is OK, base hits still put $ in the account and make the trader happy. I told a fellow pound trader that if I only trade GBP for the rest of my life- as long as I'm consistantly making money with it, I'm fine to trade one Currency.

 

More than you wanted to know I'm sure, but there you be.

Sledge

[milliard 10]

That's fair enough. If something feels right & you can claw a buck out of it then that's gotta be a positive yeah?

 

If it aint broke, then it don't need fixing

 

Right, we're about 5 hours late out of the door today, so I'll bid you adios & we're off in search of strong beer & even stronger women!!

 

Enjoy your weekend.

[torero 10]

:haha: I like that line! have a good weekend!

 

I think I'm liking GBPCHF more and more, rides like a wild buck but it can be nicely rewarding. Now I have 4 favorite pairs, GBPUSD, GBPJPY, EURJPY and GBPCHF. I think it's more than enough to keep my eyes busy.

[Sledge 13]

That's fair enough. If something feels right & you can claw a buck out of it then that's gotta be a positive yeah?

 

If it aint broke, then it don't need fixing

 

Right, we're about 5 hours late out of the door today, so I'll bid you adios & we're off in search of strong beer & even stronger women!!

 

Enjoy your weekend.

 

You do the same! Good luck with that strong woman!

[milliard 10]

The range tiers have certainly worked through the rolling year with easy access markers. Looks like it’s setting up for a fire fight back at the big daddy 1.94 zone.

 

Those closing daily lower tops don’t make for a good smoke signal at all. Best get your Bull armour out & clean her down Andre, you ole boys might be in for a skirmish or two at the next full moon!!

 

Hope you’re still positioned to the short side Mr Sledge?

 

Prices flopping into Krantzy’s lower tier (from post #8) which should now act as a soft ceiling if we get a healthy close into the lower sixes down here.

 

Counter bids unusually light at the 650-80 huh Annie Oakley? Those pirates talk a lot of shit at times.

 

(weak) Russian lethargy if you ask me, that + EU/GB hot thru .8025

 

See how much reliance on that the Pound bears are likely to stomach.

 

Time to get your 1.94 calling cards located children, playtime is looming!

[Anna-Maria 10]

This zone (600-50) should put up the last real defense Andre. T'was a continuation step back in Feb & no doubt houses Option traffic.

 

Would prefer a close beneath the round number to be honest, but any weak pop back towards the 680 will attract sellers if it's genuine.

 

What's a few pips between pirates :o