SPY Daily Composite

[DbPhoenix 42]

"Volume profile" is a good term, though I don't think I mean the same thing he does. In any case, today it worked out nicely: a pop up above the "extreme" for a few points, then Wham! back down toward the midpoint, through, then all the way down to within a couple of points of the midpoint of the previous range (at least on the NQ; the ES hit it exactly).

 

Scalping just does not appeal to me at all.

[gassah 10]

If it follows through tomorrow I was thinking of something more long term.

 

nic

[gassah 10]

"Volume profile" is a good term, ... today it worked out nicely: a pop up above the "extreme" for a few points, then Wham! back down toward the midpoint, through, then all the way down to within a couple of points of the midpoint of the previous range (at least on the NQ; the ES hit it exactly).

 

This is SPY with a composite from last week and the high volume area hit by Monday's low.

 

nic

[heretodaygone... 10]

arghh,you've been doing this too long:)...go with the flow. Here's a mp chart to show what I mean.

 

I was reading through some excellent threads on market statistics by jperl and came across this post - http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/trading-with-market-statistics-v-other-2130.html#post15193

 

My thinking on it is that if you have a normal volume distribution where the vpoc or pvp as jperl calls it is in the center of the vah/val (not skewed) then gassah's 3rd standard deviation reversal trade would be high probability. But, if the volume distribution is off centered(skewed), the probability of reversal goes down. In fact the probability of continuation goes up.

 

any thoughts?

Edited April 11, 2008 by heretodaygone...

[gassah 10]

Market Analyst. The blue zones are value and the green and red are the 2nd and 3rd standard deviations

nic

 

Another way of doing this is to set the value calculations to 95% instead of the standard 68 or 70%. This can be done in MarketDelta with price or volume.

 

nic

[gassah 10]

Would you happen to have an intraday chart of possibly a few days worth of data?

 

I now have intraday stock data for Market Analyst if there is something you'd like to see.

[heretodaygone... 10]

I now have intraday stock data for Market Analyst if there is something you'd like to see.

 

 

Thanks for offering gassah. I would like to see if and when excess areas(3sd's) become future value area's if that makes sense.

[gassah 10]

This SP500 weekly shows the lower 3rd STD of the first profile becoming part of the value area of the larger, combined profiles?

[heretodaygone... 10]

btw...didn't mean to ignore your post, but, does the fact that value is being built in the weekly profile change your outlook or more importantly trade location?

[gassah 10]

does the fact that value is being built in the weekly profile change your outlook or more importantly trade location?

 

I prefer to keep them separate unless price accepts back into the top range. If it does then we'll be looker at a larger, longer-term range whereby the combined profiles would apply. BTW, I've only been studying MP for a few months, fwiw.

[heretodaygone... 10]

I found this profile from Steidlmayer and thought it applied to value building in previous sd3's.It is my opinion that longer term trades in this value area is a trap,. As always, time will tell...

[heretodaygone... 10]

here's a link to the cbot's market profile handbook for those who are interested.

 

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1184,00.html