Fed Day Advice.

[Nvesta81 10]

I'm still new to trading futures and I'm wondering what some of you think about using sell/buy stops to catch the move after the fed announcement? I know the move happens so fast I'm wondering if I would even get a decent fill. Anyone with experience doing this? Recommended or not? Or is it better to just fade the move? Thanks.

[Hlm 10]

I'm still new to trading futures and I'm wondering what some of you think about using sell/buy stops to catch the move after the fed announcement? I know the move happens so fast I'm wondering if I would even get a decent fill. Anyone with experience doing this? Recommended or not? Or is it better to just fade the move? Thanks.

Unless you are highly experienced I would stay FAR AWAY after the first few minutes (if not the whole thing). If the numbers come out unexpected the market can easily skip levels. Your stops could be worthless and fills could be horrible. Just in my opinion of course.

[DbPhoenix 42]

There's absolutely nothing wrong with taking yourself out for a long lunch, followed by a stroll in the nearest park. You can then begin again tomorrow, all bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, without subjecting yourself to all the regrets you will feel over not having followed your plan, or over having followed it and lost money anyway.

[dandxg 10]

I would stay away unless you know what you are doing. If you want to gamble and break your plan go for it, just realize that's what you are doing. Expect to get skidded for slippage if your stop loss gets hit depending on the volatility at that moment.

[brownsfan019 17]

STAY AWAY IF YOU DO NOT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING

 

Come play in our combat grounds game if you have nothing to do.

[Nvesta81 10]

LOL. Ok, point(s) taken. I'll sit this one out, watch, and take notes.

[CandleWhisperer 10]

Interesting.

 

From a VSA perspective, news events are the very things the Big Boys use to manipulate the market the most. The increased volume allows them to mask their intentions that much more.

 

The prudent thing thus is to ignore the news itself and pay attention to the Price Action after the news. Sometimes the BBs leave signals prior to the event, but most do well to sit on the sidelines as the news comes out and then focus on the reaction to the news, or the reaction to the reaction to the news.

 

I am kind of surprised that DB, while not a VSA trader but a PV trader, would say stay away. I guess that has more to do with one's level of experience than the type of day itself.

 

I also know that the WRB & Long Shadow guys expect major changes in supply/demand to show up on or around News releases. Again it is not about trading the news event. It's about understanding the possible change in supply/demand the BBs create because of the news event. One might goes as far as to say, create with the help of the news event.

[Nvesta81 10]

Interesting.

 

From a VSA perspective, news events are the very things the Big Boys use to manipulate the market the most. The increased volume allows them to mask their intentions that much more.

 

The prudent thing thus is to ignore the news itself and pay attention to the Price Action after the news. Sometimes the BBs leave signals prior to the event, but most do well to sit on the sidelines as the news comes out and then focus on the reaction to the news, or the reaction to the reaction to the news.

 

I am kind of surprised that DB, while not a VSA trader but a PV trader, would say stay away. I guess that has more to do with one's level of experience than the type of day itself.

 

I also know that the WRB & Long Shadow guys expect major changes in supply/demand to show up on or around News releases. Again it is not about trading the news event. It's about understanding the possible change in supply/demand the BBs create because of the news event. One might goes as far as to say, create with the help of the news event.

 

Pardon my ignorance but what is a PV trader? :doh: lol

[CandleWhisperer 10]

If we don't ask, how do we learn? Price and Volume trader. Generally speaking this means sans indicators.

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

I am kind of surprised that DB, while not a VSA trader but a PV trader, would say stay away. I guess that has more to do with one's level of experience than the type of day itself.

 

After twenty years at this, I no longer have anything to prove.

 

But those who want to play have my best wishes. Or condolences, as the case may be.

[brownsfan019 17]

Interesting.

I guess that has more to do with one's level of experience than the type of day itself.

 

 

This is the only reason why I suggest to stay away. This was a great trading day all around and if you knew what to expect in terms of swings, etc. then it was a great day to be a trader.

 

But for someone brand new that's NEVER traded a fed event, I would watch and learn.

[torero 10]

I am kind of surprised that DB, while not a VSA trader but a PV trader, would say stay away. I guess that has more to do with one's level of experience than the type of day itself.

 

I also know that the WRB & Long Shadow guys expect major changes in supply/demand to show up on or around News releases. Again it is not about trading the news event. It's about understanding the possible change in supply/demand the BBs create because of the news event. One might goes as far as to say, create with the help of the news event.

 

The problem with Fed news is that levels are general ignored because the herd is just dumping everything and anything onto the market. Plus the fact that no one seems to have control long enough in directing traffic at fast speed, seems more a gamble than systematic trading. I think we all a certain amount of control in price action but these times there doesn´t seem to be one minute of control at all.

[CandleWhisperer 10]

After twenty years at this, I no longer have anything to prove.

 

But those who want to play have my best wishes. Or condolences, as the case may be.

 

you misunderstand. I did not mean your experience, I meant other traders. But I did mean I would of thought you found value in trading around such events.

[CandleWhisperer 10]

The problem with Fed news is that levels are general ignored because the herd is just dumping everything and anything onto the market. Plus the fact that no one seems to have control long enough in directing traffic at fast speed, seems more a gamble than systematic trading. I think we all a certain amount of control in price action but these times there doesn´t seem to be one minute of control at all.

 

At the heart of VSA is the idea that markets are manipulated. This manipulation is especially evident (still hidden to the masses, or herd) is during news releases like a fed day. The high volume from the herd and uninformed institutions creates the backdrop for the BBs to dump their positions or load up on them.

 

If you believe this and trade via VSA, it makes no sense to say "don't trade on a news event like the fed day". It is the very type of day where you should be trading.

 

That is not to say that one should not be careful or try and front run the news. To be sure, one should be on the sidelines during the release itself and look to play the reaction to the news or the reaction to the reaction.

 

Simply, important changes in the supply/demand dynamic tend to occur around these news events. Traders who look at supply/demand really should be looking to trade therefore.

[torero 10]

That I agree on. The problem is that it moves too fast to analyze rationally while the emotions are peaking watching it move. During slower movements, it´s great, but during fast moves like these, even experienced traders have to be wary. I think at least 30 minutes before moving in is reasonable, not when it explodes on the mark of the announcement.

[CandleWhisperer 10]

That I agree on. The problem is that it moves too fast to analyze rationally while the emotions are peaking watching it move. During slower movements, it´s great, but during fast moves like these, even experienced traders have to be wary. I think at least 30 minutes before moving in is reasonable, not when it explodes on the mark of the announcement.

 

Yes. One should let the BBs do what it is they are going to do: dump supply or load up (demand). Trying to be in the market while they are doing this is very dangerous. This is especially true for those who trade spot forex with its requotes and widened spreads. But alas, that says more about the market traded in this environment, than about trading a market in this environment.

[torero 10]

There is a way to do but it has to be Non-dealing desk in order to make your percentage of success higher. The great thing about it the news is that once, it decides on a direction, it's a nice long ride. You just have to be patient and wait for the entry.

[trumpeter 10]

Interest rate was unchanged.

With a neutral stance, this is like

balancing a marble on a pinhead.

 

Just sit back and watch the mayhem.

[Sledge 13]

Words of advice:

Professional Traders (I'm talking the Big Boys and Girls whose pips are worth THOUSANDS of Dollars and are responsible to manage others money) tidy up their books and sit tight during the release of Fed News- GENERALLY, not looking to add-in or scale out at that time...

 

.....why in the world would a retail trader attempt to do so unless he/she is very seasoned and is looking for a quick in and out?