Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Sledge

Real Time Price Action- Clue to Puzzle?

Recommended Posts

  zeon said:
Apparently at a very high level compared to yesterday's close:shocked:. That must have caught a few people out.

 

Not if they did the prep. Price opened at the high of the range I posted above. Therefore, the initial tactic is to fade it and see what happens.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  DbPhoenix said:
Not if they did the prep. Price opened at the high of the range I posted above. Therefore, the initial tactic is to fade it and see what happens.

 

I meant that people who didn't have a stop in place or so, must have been pretty pissed right now. Otoh, those who were long from yesterday evening had a bit of luck...

 

Anyway, I faded and shorted the ES from 1306. There was an upthrust according to my chart just before the open and I just closed out at 1297 for 9 points.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  DbPhoenix said:
Not if they did the prep. Price opened at the high of the range I posted above. Therefore, the initial tactic is to fade it and see what happens.

 

By "see what happens" do you mean that you never have a target in mind? I closed out my short now although there wasn't really a selling climax in place. I normally exit on volume spikes or when price is bouncing off support. And it looks like it's reacting off support now. I believe I followed my plan and executed it properly. But in the end, by doing so and despite all the profitable trades, the net profit isn't that big because my losers are in comparison to my winners about half as big. You could say at least I'm making profits but over the long run it's not quite what you expect from trading. Perhaps I should be happy with whatever the market offers, but somehow I feel there's more to trading than taking 5 to 8 points on winners and lose 2 to 4 on losers. I wonder what the experience of other traders is in that aspect. Apart from some textbooks that claim your winners should always be twice as big as your losers, I wonder how it is for other trades in real life.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  zeon said:
By "see what happens" do you mean that you never have a target in mind? I closed out my short now although there wasn't really a selling climax in place. I normally exit on volume spikes or when price is bouncing off support. And it looks like it's reacting off support now. I believe I followed my plan and executed it properly. But in the end, by doing so and despite all the profitable trades, the net profit isn't that big because my losers are in comparison to my winners about half as big. You could say at least I'm making profits but over the long run it's not quite what you expect from trading. Perhaps I should be happy with whatever the market offers, but somehow I feel there's more to trading than taking 5 to 8 points on winners and lose 2 to 4 on losers. I wonder what the experience of other traders is in that aspect. Apart from some textbooks that claim your winners should always be twice as big as your losers, I wonder how it is for other trades in real life.

 

If I'm selling R, my target is S unless there's a reversal signal in the meantime. Today, however, there are three distinct S/R zones from the previous day (and price in the NQ, at least, bounced off the first one), so the idea of reaching the bottom of yesterday's range is probably wishful thinking.

 

As to your plan and how you execute it, I can give only general advice, bumper-sticker style. If you're looking for more input into that, I suggest you open a blog and invite those whose opinions you value to follow it and perhaps post to it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  DbPhoenix said:
If I'm selling R, my target is S unless there's a reversal signal in the meantime. Today, however, there are three distinct S/R zones from the previous day (and price in the NQ, at least, bounced off the first one), so the idea of reaching the bottom of yesterday's range is probably wishful thinking.

Yes exactly, sometimes the next S/R is pretty close and price reacts of that. But I think today I did the sensible thing by closing my short position. Around the time ES touched support the NQ did too as you say.

 

  DbPhoenix said:

As to your plan and how you execute it, I can give only general advice, bumper-sticker style. If you're looking for more input into that, I suggest you open a blog and invite those whose opinions you value to follow it and perhaps post to it.

 

I appreciate the input you've already given me and I'm sure others have benefit from the discussion too. Great idea about the blog, I'll think it over. Will have a look around the other blogs to see if they get some attention or not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  zeon said:
... but over the long run it's not quite what you expect from trading. Perhaps I should be happy with whatever the market offers....somehow I feel there's more to trading than taking 5 to 8 points on winners and lose 2 to 4 on losers. I wonder what the experience of other traders is in that aspect....

 

Assuming that the win rate is 50:50 or maybe a little better, most traders would chew off their own legs to achieve those sort of results consistently. There is no 'holy grail' where you win 85% of the time while only risking 1 to make 10.

 

All you can ever take is what the market offers, well a portion of it anyway. If you are not happy with that you will always be disappointed. To be blunt it sounds like you have un-reasonable expectations. Not sure about what your win rate is, number of trades a day you take etc but it sounds like you should be abe to pretty much generate as much return as you could possibly desire if you can do that consistantly. I guess maybe then its not about generating a return but being 'right'. That is a very dangerous malaise in trading, I know that first hand.

 

Cheers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  DbPhoenix said:
.

For tomorrow:

 

On the ES , I'm looking at 1338, 1319, and 1309. I'm going to be away from my home computer for the rest of the week, will only be able to check in from a remote computer in the early mornings. Back on the weekend. Good trading all..... will be following along....

erie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  erierambler said:
On the ES , I'm looking at 1338, 1319, and 1309. I'm going to be away from my home computer for the rest of the week, will only be able to check in from a remote computer in the early mornings. Back on the weekend. Good trading all..... will be following along....

erie

 

I have 1328,1335 as resistance, also a squeeze zone between 1315-1318 so I don't anticipate that to be key support. Key support imo, should come in around 1306-07 with major support at 1300-01

2008-03-11_221130-es5min.thumb.jpg.fe03c9b9452d3421540e19c61e2449b8.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:confused: Question here, one of the last posts before I open a blog - promise.

 

Support drawn = pink line.

Price is breaking below support, volume retraces on the way back up and forms an upthrust. I shorted (bar in yellow rectangle)! The volume seemed okay and the bar closed off the highs, suggesting supply is coming into the market.

 

This is kind of my problem, despite how much time I spend analyzing the market in real time I'm often confronted with something that happens that's not "according to plan".

 

Sorry for the crappy chart, Bigcharts doesn't show premarket data.

A similar situation is visible on the Nasdaq.

 

Got me here:confused:

es.GIF.35870ca9b84c99c3bb4844ca49dbef27.GIF

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  zeon said:
:confused: volume seemed okay and the bar closed off the highs, suggesting supply is coming into the market.

 

... despite how much time I spend analyzing the market in real time I'm often confronted with something that happens that's not "according to plan".

 

zeon,

 

Think fast - I’m going to sling some Mark Douglas at you :idea:

“Anything can happen” and

“What happens if you take this setup 30 times?”

 

…same applies to the ‘frustrating’ trade you posted the other day (over in VSA2 I think)

 

zdo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  zdo said:
zeon,

 

Think fast - I’m going to sling some Mark Douglas at you :idea:

“Anything can happen” and

“What happens if you take this setup 30 times?”

 

…same applies to the ‘frustrating’ trade you posted the other day (over in VSA2 I think)

 

zdo

 

Well said.

Just b/c a setup failed once, means nothing. Any type of trading requires hours and hours of screen time and testing to validate any statistical reference.

 

0 for 1 is nothing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  brownsfan019 said:
Well said.

Just b/c a setup failed once, means nothing. Any type of trading requires hours and hours of screen time and testing to validate any statistical reference.

 

  zdo said:
,

“Anything can happen” and

“What happens if you take this setup 30 times?”

zdo

 

Yes guys I'm aware of this. But I had always assumed this to be more valid of the mechnical approach. Not that I'm striving for 80-90% win rate or so, but I thought that by correctly learning to analyze the market, I'd be in better shape to understand these things.

 

So everybody agrees that on what I observed? Perhaps I can take comfort in that, but sometimes these things just sweep my off my feet and I'm like "eh, how could this happen?!"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Believe nothing just because a so-called wise person said it. Believe nothing just because a belief is generally held. Believe nothing just because it is said in ancient books. Believe nothing just because it is said to be of divine origin. Believe nothing just because someone else believes it. Believe only what you yourself test and judge to be true." - Buddha

2008-03-12_182732-esfor31308.jpg.6f5d9dedd9361442b40b2e13e3ec27e4.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  DbPhoenix said:
.

For today.

 

I keep looking for ways to make this clear to others, but perhaps there's no substitute for multiple examples.

 

.

 

I don't think I quite understand your chart though. If I am understanding this right, there is no support below 1720?

 

I took a trade on the ES today, but because your chart was the NQ so I'll post the setup here too. The same thing occurred on the NQ anyway so it's all the same. Your last rectangle was 1700-1710. I had support around 1707 actually, so around the mid of that. Then almost exactly one hour into the session price went down on heavy volume (see qqqq chart) and broke that support. The next bars were all small and on low volume, a retracement right? So why does price rise then? I fear I am losing touch with reality here.

qqqq.GIF.04d30c8898d3d37c49ca107e06e42034.GIF

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  zeon said:
I don't think I quite understand your chart though. If I am understanding this right, there is no support below 1720?

 

I took a trade on the ES today, but because your chart was the NQ so I'll post the setup here too. The same thing occurred on the NQ anyway so it's all the same. Your last rectangle was 1700-1710. I had support around 1707 actually, so around the mid of that. Then almost exactly one hour into the session price went down on heavy volume (see qqqq chart) and broke that support. The next bars were all small and on low volume, a retracement right? So why does price rise then? I fear I am losing touch with reality here.

 

From my perspective prices were marked down to test the supply early in the day. They then hovered just below a key support area and because there was little volume below it (no supply), it was the go-ahead for the smart money to markup prices after they accumulated on YOUR and everyone else's selling hoping for a continuation of the down move. (not meant to pick on you, I got burned like this before). Basically you got caught in a trap. There was a spring just below that support zone that gave away the strenght if you missed it.

edit : chart times are an hour ahead of ET.

attachment.php?attachmentid=5501&stc=1&d=1205428920

markup.gif.99c6a0a672375c7a6e07645092cca9ea.gif

Edited by Nvesta81

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An interesting contrast to yesterday.

 

Here we fell entirely out of the previous day's value range and price range. Gapped, as a matter of fact (though technically the futures don't "gap"). Not only that, we dropped below the midpoint of the entire range that began two weeks ago and came to rest at the midpoint of the heaviest volume range for this this week. All relevant lines from previous days are extended with dashes to act as potential levels of S or R or both.

 

One might expect traders to fill that gap, or at least move toward it. Absent that, a continued move down. Instead, they form a hinge. At 1000, price falls out of it but reverses before it makes much progress, perhaps finding S at the same level that the opening low did. A test. Then it takes off in the opposite direction, back toward that longer-term midpoint and the opening high. Another test. Having tested both ends, traders take price down to the low of that same volume concentration (the blue line). This price is rejected rapidly and forcefully, leading one to expect that the countermove will be as forceful, particularly given the TICKQ divergence. Instead, price waffles around for 20m before finally advancing.

 

And here's where it gets interesting.

 

Ordinarily, one would expect price to travel to R, at which point one could reverse or cash in and go home. But where's R? First price stops at the midpoint. But rather than bust through like it did yesterday, it falls back 10pts. Then it futzes around here for half an hour, finally moving on to the next level of "resistance", the previous day's low, filling the gap. Then to the previous day's close. THEN ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPENING HIGH before taking off yet again for the top of the previous day's volume range.

 

Anyone trading one contract must have been driven crazy trying to figure out what to do, but even those trading multiple contracts would have had to be on their toes. The most logical place to exit would be a point equal to the distance between the midpoint of the opening range and the initial range extension to 1700, i.e., 1730. This point would also serve to fill the gap, more or less. But the only way to rack up those extra 30pts without getting tossed around would be to leave at least one of multiple contracts back where it was bought at 1700 or thereabouts and just leave it the hell alone.

 

Therefore, the only "error" today was not to have taken the long at 1700. Given the number of resistance levels along the way to 1760, one could have been forgiven for taking profits just about anywhere.

 

And incidentally, zeon, you're not going to get any comments to your Blog unless you allow comments to be made. See your Blog Control Panel.

 

Brun, hope you're still getting something out of these. :)

 

.

attachment.php?attachmentid=5503&stc=1&d=1205448222

 

.

Image6.gif.9349af31c320327e4bbea7e83d94ca48.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  DbPhoenix said:

Therefore, the only "error" today was not to have taken the long at 1700. Given the number of resistance levels along the way to 1760, one could have been forgiven for taking profits just about anywhere.

 

And incidentally, zeon, you're not going to get any comments to your Blog unless you allow comments to be made. See your Blog Control Panel.

 

I believe I switched it on though. If somebody has trouble posting to it, please PM me.

 

As for errors... I make them a lot and not taking a long today was indeed one of them. But if you weren't long - like I - isn't it normal you would expect to take a short at each resistance level on the way up? At least that's what I did, figuring this is a bear market and shorting on rallies is the thing to do right?

 

Final question: how does all this pan out with the hinge formation you posted couple of days ago. You said the break lower wasn't a good sign. But since that 'break' we've seen nothing but massive buying, on Tuesday and again today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  zeon said:

 

Final question: how does all this pan out with the hinge formation you posted couple of days ago. You said the break lower wasn't a good sign. But since that 'break' we've seen nothing but massive buying, on Tuesday and again today.

 

 

Prolly broke a support line from the year 2000. hehe:rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  heretodaygone... said:
Prolly broke a support line from the year 2000. hehe:rofl:

 

If you want me to stop posting charts, I'll be happy to do so. They do take time, and I don't like wasting it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.