Real Time Price Action- Clue to Puzzle?

[DbPhoenix 42]

Unless you define and test whatever it is that interests you as a setup, then you cannot expect to do any better over the long run than a coin toss. Posting that you were "right" four days ago about a return to this level doesn't do you much good if you have no setup to take advantage of it.

[zeon 10]

Unless you define and test whatever it is that interests you as a setup, then you cannot expect to do any better over the long run than a coin toss. Posting that you were "right" four days ago about a return to this level doesn't do you much good if you have no setup to take advantage of it.

 

That's why I posted it, I seem to be having a much better understanding of price on a higher timeframe than intraday.

 

Like I said before, the setup I described used to work much better than lately. Yesterday however it would have led to a profitable trade. Today it wouldn't have. Perhaps putting an extra filter on it like the one I mentioned "not after a breakout" could help me get something better than a coin-toss.

[zeon 10]

Es

 

1349

1357

1362

1367

 

One change: 1362 -> 1364

 

Price also spent some time in the 68-71 zone this morning. However that was premarket and on very thin volume, I'm not so sure how much importance one must give to that level.

[DbPhoenix 42]

On the ES, 1370 is the primary S/R level.

[zeon 10]

On the ES, 1370 is the primary S/R level.

 

 

Here's a close-up of why I mentioned 68-71.

[zeon 10]

One change: 1362 -> 1364

 

Price also spent some time in the 68-71 zone this morning. However that was premarket and on very thin volume, I'm not so sure how much importance one must give to that level.

 

 

A very exciting day, almost all of the levels I wrote before the day opened led to a (temporary) reversal in price. I should probably write, a reaction. 1367 after the open, 1371 in mid-day and 1364 near the close! During the day I observed price flying off 1367 up 10 points, basically in no time. I have no idea why anybody, other than taking a quick gamble would enter there though. It doesn't look like as if price stays long enough around that level...

 

Next is 1371 in mid-day. Unfortunately going long there would be against the trend, there was a breach of the trendline and a secondary high in place (which wasn't really a lower high), but more importantly the swingpoint at 1374 was broken so the last swing low was breached. Going long for that reason would be going against the trend.

 

Finally, there was a nice reaction off 1364 one hour before the bell. Djee, who could've imagined that it would rally to 1371 in the final minutes. The reaction of 1371 was very swift and quick, but going long there would be going against the trend too.

 

To sum things up, I had three long signals today, all of them were invalidated because the uptrend was no longer in place. However, if I leave trend out of the equation I'd have at least one profitable trade. Over the long run this doesn't lead to anything more than a 50% chance of winning on a trade though. The quest continues...

[zeon 10]

Levels for today:

 

1379

1372.50

1366.25

1359

[heretodaygone... 10]

what i see

 

strong support - 1359-1360

levels - 1367, 1374

strong resistance - 1377

[zeon 10]

Action observed so far: a strong rejection of 1368 (at the time of news), and price traveled all the way back to the opening low. It reversed again there but on apparently not much selling pressure and made a marginal higher low. After that it started drifting upwards. The next potential resistance levels to watch out for are 1372 and 1379.

Edited April 3, 2008 by zeon

[Tannism 10]

I am practicing identifying support and resistance and notating. (Thanks for the examples Db at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blog.php?b=33)

 

Both charts seem to show areas of consensus with attempts at breaching both directions.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I'm glad you're picking up the ball with this. I haven't traded stocks for years, though I see no reason why the principles shouldn't apply.

 

One caution: don't rely too heavily on the VAP. Look at where price stops rising, then where it stops falling, then at the sideways movements, much like the Darvas Box. These "corrals" are where the price and volume ranges will be found. The VAP should confirm, but it's not always as precise as some might like. You could also use the program that nic uses that provides the standard deviations from the midpoint, but you may do as well by just looking at it and keeping in mind that these are traders, not just bars.

[Tannism 10]

Support and Resistance AAPL

[Tannism 10]

Here is my follow up to AAPL with a PnF possibly showing cause to the top.

AaplPnf.pdf

[DbPhoenix 42]

Does anyone trade the NQ during the day, more or less continuously?

[zeon 10]

Does anyone trade the NQ during the day, more or less continuously?

 

I'm looking at the NQ and ES, mostly all of the day... I might not be trading with real money anymore, but last year I was pretty active on the ES. I'm still comparing both markets to see what makes you prefer the NQ.

[treadstone 10]

Does anyone trade the NQ during the day, more or less continuously?

 

Yes, save for a short lunch time break I'm trading the NQ full time, every day.

[Tannism 10]

This annotation study in supply and resistance has been extremely helpful.

 

The range is defined from the weekly here. I am moving on to the springboard section next week. It should help with the edges and fleshing out the charts.

 

( Thanks DB http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blog.php?b=20)

[DbPhoenix 42]

Thanks, Tannis. My study of springboards over the past few months (or, more accurately, renewed study) has been of great benefit. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how one trades), I've found the best springboards on 1m and sub-1m charts (where all the "noise" is ). Today, for example, the springboard for the NQ took place between 1336 and 1339 at 1901.25. Not visible on a 5m chart, but there it is.

 

And of course if one doesn't "believe" in support and resistance, that complicates matters further.....

[Tannism 10]

Thanks, Tannis. My study of springboards over the past few months (or, more accurately, renewed study) has been of great benefit. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how one trades), I've found the best springboards on 1m and sub-1m charts (where all the "noise" is ). Today, for example, the springboard for the NQ took place between 1336 and 1339 at 1901.25. Not visible on a 5m chart, but there it is.

 

And of course if one doesn't "believe" in support and resistance, that complicates matters further.....

 

I think I see it. Thank you, Db. I'll have it beside me when I look at Chapter 7 this weekend.

 

If you wouldn't mind, related to noise and finding equilibrium.... I believe I have set this PAV tool to show 1 standard deviation of volume on each side of the mid line of volume. By inspection, does it look like I have accomplished that? If so, this is the kind of gadget that helps train my eyes.

 

The mid line of volume extends on MCD. The other pink outlines show I standard deviation on each side of the midline. It looks like the volume pattern is skewed- not a normal distribution pattern.

 

The other setup...on ABT, the pattern is more of a normal distribution. 68% of the volume falls between the top and bottom lines which are extended on this chart. The middle line is the midline. Volume did not follow the down prices outside the channel.

 

Thanks again.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I believe I have set this PAV tool to show 1 standard deviation of volume on each side of the mid line of volume. By inspection, does it look like I have accomplished that?

 

Well, like I said, I just eyeball it. I see two clusters, the first from 0930 to 1010 and the second from 1015 to noon. I find it useful to make those distinctions because price may find resistance in places that would otherwise be unexpected. For instance, in this case, price may be finding resistance toward the end of the day at the top of that first cluster, whereas otherwise it looks like it's free and clear above the longer one.

 

Try ignoring all the tails. That may give you a sense of where the action is.

 

For example:

 

 

Click the image to open it up to it full size and you'll see the R line off the second box.

Edited April 25, 2008 by DbPhoenix

[Tannism 10]

Springboards:

"zones where traders are seeking balance (or equilibrium .."

"A springboard can be said to exist when preparations have been made for, and the psychological moment has arrived for, a quick and important move"

 

I started following this at the bar marked WREV after blue circles that indicated what may be a springboard.

[Tannism 10]

This is what I am watching on MSFT today.