Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Sledge

Real Time Price Action- Clue to Puzzle?

Recommended Posts

FWIW, using the volume range "boxes" from my Blog, the first resistance area is 23-23.25 and the second is 26.5-.75.

 

 

I'm sorry but everyone here seems to have different definitions of where to find support and resistance, and I doubt I'm to blame if there's some confusion here, because although in all the PDF files you posted on this site, never once I did see a "box" come up. Then in all the dailies you use boxes,... and to be honest I've tried looking at it in different ways but I just can't seem to find how you come up with those boxes. They seem to be drawn in a very "discretionary" sense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Simply a variety of ways of describing the same thing. The common theme in everything I've posted is price and volume and the dynamics between demand and supply, or buyers and sellers, or buying pressure and selling pressure. It's all the same thing. Beyond that, one looks for those areas where price is trending and where it's "balancing" or seeking equilibrium. These areas or "zones" of balancing present potential levels of support and resistance. I've posted dozens of charts with support and resistance lines above and below these zones. All one has to do to make a box is plot vertical lines on either side of the zone. If one doesn't understand how or where to locate these zones of greatest trading activity or highest volume, he can plot volume at price. If that makes no sense either, he can try the MP software.

 

What one calls all of this is irrelevant. The objective is to locate those areas where the greatest trading activity has taken place. One can then draw lines above and below it, color it, draw a circle around it, draw a box around it. Doesn't matter. What matters is locating the zone. That's what I had been doing for three weeks in my Blog. As for today's numbers, those were derived from the chart I posted last Friday.

 

One can, of course, limit himself to "points" and "levels" without regard for where those points and levels lie. But if they don't work, the logical conclusion is that they don't represent support and resistance after all.

 

This is a chart I posted several weeks ago. The only difference is that I've enclosed the zones:

.

attachment.php?attachmentid=5795&stc=1&d=1206977046

 

.

Image3.gif.13bb53b7812ab306a387750d181dd11d.gif

Edited by DbPhoenix

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Simply a variety of ways of describing the same thing. The common theme in everything I've posted is price and volume and the dynamics between demand and supply, or buyers and sellers, or buying pressure and selling pressure. It's all the same thing. Beyond that, one looks for those areas where price is trending and where it's "balancing" or seeking equilibrium. These areas or "zones" of balancing present potential levels of support and resistance. I've posted dozens of charts with support and resistance lines above and below these zones. All one has to do to make a box is plot vertical lines on either side of the zone. If one doesn't understand how or where to locate these zones of greatest trading activity or highest volume, he can plot volume at price. If that makes no sense either, he can try the MP software.

 

What one calls all of this is irrelevant. The objective is to locate those areas where the greatest trading activity has taken place. One can then draw lines above and below it, color it, draw a circle around it, draw a box around it. Doesn't matter. What matters is locating the zone. That's what I had been doing for three weeks in my Blog. As for today's numbers, those were derived from the chart I posted last Friday.

 

One can, of course, limit himself to "points" and "levels" without regard for where those points and levels lie. But if they don't work, the logical conclusion is that they don't represent support and resistance after all.

 

 

Okay, that makes a bit more sense.

 

Would you, according to the attached chart, then consider 133.50 - 134.00 to be an area of potential support/resistance (depending on the direction that price is coming from)?

spy_vbp.thumb.GIF.d3cafd3619904e20ac959e39a5cd1c28.GIF

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33.5-34 and 33-34.5.

 

 

That makes sense, or at least sort of. Although the overlapping of boxes on your charts is still something that can cause issues in my observations. For example, when having multiple S/R levels close to eachother, I can get caught in shorting three times on a signal although only the upper resistance level for example really provided resistance.

 

A question though: what to do with overnight/premarket action? Do you think it's important enough to provide S/R? Or don't you take it into consideration?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That makes sense, or at least sort of. Although the overlapping of boxes on your charts is still something that can cause issues in my observations. For example, when having multiple S/R levels close to eachother, I can get caught in shorting three times on a signal although only the upper resistance level for example really provided resistance.

 

A question though: what to do with overnight/premarket action? Do you think it's important enough to provide S/R? Or don't you take it into consideration?

 

As I've asked several times, why do you continue to trade this if you don't understand it? Study it. Try to understand it. If and when you think you understand it, then paper-trade it. If you never understand it, then don't try to trade it.

 

You're never going to understand the object if your entire focus is limited to what you're going to do about the object. The former is about the object. The latter is about you. This is not about you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The discussion has seems to be centring on drawing the levels or zones of potential S/R. I'd like to ask how people use the 'real time PA' of the thread title to determine whether S/R is holding or breaking?

 

I have noticed that price will often react to the first 'edge' of the zone and in fact retrace some way. It may then push a bit further (perhaps to the midpoint) and then finally turn from the outside edge of the zone.

 

Using lower time frames seems a common approach to detect the turn. Looking harder and closer at price where you anticipate this might occur if you like. The problem is that often (very often) you will get a change in trend on the lower time frame that is actually just the first reaction.

 

One of the answers seems perhaps to be through tactics (e.g. enter 1/3 first edge 1/3 centre 1/3 outside edge). However how does one recognise whether you have a reaction or the final turn?

 

Heres a picture that hopefully might illustrate what I am talking about.

5aa70e4f4875f_z06-0801_04_2008(75tick).thumb.png.bbfa785c32773ce00da9fcd3e0066daf.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The discussion has seems to be centring on drawing the levels or zones of potential S/R. I'd like to ask how people use the 'real time PA' of the thread title to determine whether S/R is holding or breaking?

 

I have noticed that price will often react to the first 'edge' of the zone and in fact retrace some way. It may then push a bit further (perhaps to the midpoint) and then finally turn from the outside edge of the zone.

 

Using lower time frames seems a common approach to detect the turn. Looking harder and closer at price where you anticipate this might occur if you like. The problem is that often (very often) you will get a change in trend on the lower time frame that is actually just the first reaction.

 

One of the answers seems perhaps to be through tactics (e.g. enter 1/3 first edge 1/3 centre 1/3 outside edge). However how does one recognise whether you have a reaction or the final turn?

 

Heres a picture that hopefully might illustrate what I am talking about.

 

 

I don't know which instrument that chart is, but it's very similar to yesterday's action on the ES. I was about to ask the same question, but you saved me the trouble. I'm observing price action at important levels and have often found volume to be an important indicator in whether there's a true reaction or not. However, despite the initial reaction, in some cases the reaction doesn't last very long and the trend continues on it's direction. In other cases, a reversal occurs.

 

I can't seem to find anything conclusive to determine whether or not the trade is only worth a handful of points or has a much greater potential.

 

For example, I observed two "reactions", marked by the two blue rectangles on the attached chart (one at 1322 and one at 1330). At first what looked like price was rejecting a higher level, turned out to be nothing more than a pause before the upmove continued. The second one proved to be much more and price went back to 1322, previously resistance now turned into support.

es_20080331.thumb.GIF.ef482d6aa8ff5dd528cee96d13b242cd.GIF

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

This is a chart I posted several weeks ago. The only difference is that I've enclosed the zones:

.

.

 

 

Thanks for the explanation. Although to be honest, I think on this particular chart it's fair to say that the "balancing zones" seem easier to spot, than on charts from shorter timeframes, like intraday. For example, last couple of days on the ES seem like more choppy than otherwise...

es_sr.thumb.GIF.8d110b38cf405987d58207a3d3e0de5f.GIF

Edited by zeon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The discussion has seems to be centring on drawing the levels or zones of potential S/R. I'd like to ask how people use the 'real time PA' of the thread title to determine whether S/R is holding or breaking?

One of the answers seems perhaps to be through tactics (e.g. enter 1/3 first edge 1/3 centre 1/3 outside edge). However how does one recognise whether you have a reaction or the final turn?

 

 

To me it doesn't matter, it depends on one's plan. If one has resistance as a target he/she simply sells, and that's that. Who cares what price does after that. One may need to define what a reversal is. One example would be the upthrust bar just below your red trendline after the top, could define a reversal ( has the element of weakness in it ). Just my thoughts.

erie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
To me it doesn't matter, it depends on one's plan. If one has resistance as a target he/she simply sells, and that's that. Who cares what price does after that. One may need to define what a reversal is. One example would be the upthrust bar just below your red trendline after the top, could define a reversal ( has the element of weakness in it ). Just my thoughts.

erie

 

 

True erie, but that's talking about the target. If you stubbornly hold on to S/R as a target and don't care what price does in between, I'm sure you'll get stopped out quite often. Take for example the first "upthrust" in my chart, if that was a short (at resistance too) than it'd be a losing trade.

 

Enjoy your holiday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The discussion has seems to be centring on drawing the levels or zones of potential S/R. I'd like to ask how people use the 'real time PA' of the thread title to determine whether S/R is holding or breaking?

 

I have noticed that price will often react to the first 'edge' of the zone and in fact retrace some way. It may then push a bit further (perhaps to the midpoint) and then finally turn from the outside edge of the zone.

 

Using lower time frames seems a common approach to detect the turn. Looking harder and closer at price where you anticipate this might occur if you like. The problem is that often (very often) you will get a change in trend on the lower time frame that is actually just the first reaction.

 

One of the answers seems perhaps to be through tactics (e.g. enter 1/3 first edge 1/3 centre 1/3 outside edge). However how does one recognise whether you have a reaction or the final turn?

 

Heres a picture that hopefully might illustrate what I am talking about.

 

These questions are what the three weeks' worth of real-time commentary in my Blog were intended to address. Since your particular chart does not show where the S/R levels or zones came from nor provide volume, it's impossible to answer your particular questions -- at least from the standpoint of how I detect the turns -- using only this chart.

 

If you're genuinely interested in this, I suggest you review the charts posted in Dailies in my Blog and ask specific questions about specific charts. In this way, you'll be better able to transfer whatever you learn to whatever it is you're trading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you stubbornly hold on to S/R as a target and don't care what price does in between, I'm sure you'll get stopped out quite often. Take for example the first "upthrust" in my chart, if that was a short (at resistance too) than it'd be a losing trade.

 

Enjoy your holiday.

 

Zeon,

Again , you need to watch and learn more before you post things like this...........

erie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
True erie, but that's talking about the target. If you stubbornly hold on to S/R as a target and don't care what price does in between, I'm sure you'll get stopped out quite often. Take for example the first "upthrust" in my chart, if that was a short (at resistance too) than it'd be a losing trade.

 

That's because you're placing "resistance" incorrectly. Nor, apparently, are you paying any attention to support (which would have placed you in a long trade at or around 1315).

 

I should also point out that each resistance level shown on the chart I posted last Friday and reiterated yesterday was hit exactly.

Edited by DbPhoenix

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
True erie, but that's talking about the target. If you stubbornly hold on to S/R as a target and don't care what price does in between, I'm sure you'll get stopped out quite often. Take for example the first "upthrust" in my chart, if that was a short (at resistance too) than it'd be a losing trade.

 

Enjoy your holiday.

 

yeah, but....that first upthrust on your chart didn't show any weakness. On the swing upto resistance, price hadn't even made a lower low.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's because you're placing "resistance" incorrectly. Nor, apparently, are you paying any attention to support (which would have placed you in a long trade at or around 1315).

 

I should also point out that each resistance level shown on the chart I posted last Friday and reiterated yesterday was hit exactly.

 

Support was 1317, but then again thats subjective to some.:o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's because you're placing "resistance" incorrectly. Nor, apparently, are you paying any attention to support (which would have placed you in a long trade at or around 1315).

 

Actually, I had written 1316 as a potential interesting level before the day opened. But then the premarket action went clearly below that and then through it like a knife through butter, indicating (or at least that was my conclusiong) that that level was wrong.

 

I should also point out that each resistance level shown on the chart I posted last Friday and reiterated yesterday was hit exactly.

 

I know, and I observed it in realtime, but that doesn't mean I am able to determine S/R myself using the principles you layed out. Take erierambler for example, he uses volume by price, but despite that each of us seem to come up with different levels each and every day...

:\

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I should have been more specific I had assumed (never assume!) entry at the resistance zone rather than exit (though the same question is relevant).

 

Yes this can cross over to tactics as I mentioned. However I think if you just 'blindly' sell every potential S/R you'll go bust quick, well thats my observation. Determining potential S/R is the easy bit I'd go as far as saying its trivial. There is a bit of 'art' involved but with some diligence its easily accomplished. It's also done 'unreal' time in the calm reflective phase well away from the trade.

 

Erie I would humbly suggest it does matter in fact I would suggest that monitoring to see if potential S/R is really becoming actual S/R is what determines success or failure. I would be interested to hear your take on it, do you just enter at the zone or wait for some sort of price confirmation? Either way you would have been short off of the first edge when price started making LH LL. I figure I can't have expressed too well as it appears clear that not only does it matter its critical.

 

I guess scaling in is an option that obviates the need to monitor quite so closely until price approaches the 'last line in the sand'.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
yeah, but....that first upthrust on your chart didn't show any weakness. On the swing upto resistance, price hadn't even made a lower low.

 

Yes, that's true, but neither did price on the second upthrust?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Support was 1317, but then again thats subjective to some.

 

That's why I said "at or around". Point is that the day began at support and the long side was first up in the queue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Determining potential S/R is the easy bit I'd go as far as saying its trivial. There is a bit of 'art' involved but with some diligence its easily accomplished. It's also done 'unreal' time in the calm reflective phase well away from the trade.

 

:\...

 

Am I the only one who's not finding it "trivial" then? Perhaps you could lay out the numbers for the ES today, and we could compare them to what other people have...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I should have been more specific I had assumed (never assume!) entry at the resistance zone rather than exit (though the same question is relevant). You will notice I talked about entry later on in the post.

 

Yes this can cross over to tactics as I mentioned. However I think if you just 'blindly' sell every potential S/R you'll go bust quick, well thats my observation. Determining potential S/R is the easy bit I'd go as far as saying its trivial. There is a bit of 'art' involved but with some diligence its easily accomplished. It's also done 'unreal' time in the calm reflective phase well away from the trade.

 

Erie I would humbly suggest it does matter in fact I would suggest that monitoring to see if potential S/R is really becoming actual S/R is what determines success or failure. I would be interested to hear your take on it, do you just enter at the zone or wait for some sort of price confirmation? Either way you would have been short off of the first edge when price started making LH LL. I figure I can't have expressed too well as it appears clear that not only does it matter its critical.

 

I guess scaling in is an option that obviates the need to monitor quite so closely until price approaches the 'last line in the sand' that is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.