Real Time Price Action- Clue to Puzzle?

[erierambler 10]

Okay, fair enough. I can definitely see price reacting to that level: there's a rise in volume and the bar closes off the highs. But this probably happens all the time when price approaches resistance, because it's very likely that other traders are seeing this area as resistance too.

 

If I may ask, do you focus only on the ES? or do you look at other things to?

 

Price may waffle here and still continue upward later on. As far as looking at other things, yes, but mainly in the evening. I look at the YM and the NQ, small caps, sectors (XLE, etc.) , new highs, new lows, volume of advancers, volume of decliners.

erie

[erierambler 10]

Price may waffle here and still continue upward later on. erie

 

Looks as if there were more sellers at resistance than buyers at support

erie

[DbPhoenix 42]

Looks as if there were more sellers at resistance than buyers at support

erie

 

I know you don't follow the NQ per se, but you may be interested in today's blog entry.

[zeon 10]

Looks as if there were more sellers at resistance than buyers at support

erie

 

 

No offense meant, but that's easy to say now that the markets are closed... How did you evaluate this during the day in real time?

[erierambler 10]

No offense meant, but that's easy to say now that the markets are closed... How did you evaluate this during the day in real time?

 

I didn't, LOL, all I did today was buy support and sell resistance,(according to my levels which were posted ahead of time ) what happened afterwards I watched . I mentioned to you about resistance being made at start of day, we had that conversation. You know I thought price would waffle and rise again, but it did the opposite. All the more reason for me to take the first trade and don't do any more until I get a good handle on this. One trade prevents me from making a mistake. Lots of days there is no trading at all.

And no offense taken. This is serious stuff. I want to improve and move from swing to intraday, one step at a time. It's already been a while Zeon.

erie

[erierambler 10]

Here's a sample of what I look at to find s/r in the futures ( YM, ES, and NQ are in chart Futures ), the others are marked specifically. Since they may move differently day to day, eventually they come in line as you can see on the charts. I don't follow the NQ so I marked where Db is looking for potential support.

erie

[DbPhoenix 42]

Here's a sample of what I look at to find s/r in the futures ( YM, ES, and NQ are in chart Futures ), the others are marked specifically. Since they may move differently day to day, eventually they come in line as you can see on the charts. I don't follow the NQ so I marked where Db is looking for potential support.

erie

 

Actually, it looks arbitrary without the box (all the context charts are posted in my blog). And it's been a confirmed S/R line since the end of January.

[erierambler 10]

All I've got is 1320 and 1340 for tommorrow. Anyone else?

erie

[erierambler 10]

Actually, it looks arbitrary without the box (all the context charts are posted in my blog). And it's been a confirmed S/R line since the end of January.

 

Would you agree that the line on the attached chart is important?

erie

[DbPhoenix 42]

Would you agree that the line on the attached chart is important?

erie

 

I'd look at it this way:

 

.

 

.

As for tomorrow, I may do an ES day for my last day. The numbers will be 23, 30, 40 and 48, for starters.

 

.

[erierambler 10]

I'd look at it this way:

 

Interesting, it's nice to see what someone else sees. I'll be looking at your blog tommorrow.

erie

[zeon 10]

All I've got is 1320 and 1340 for tommorrow. Anyone else?

erie

 

Why 40? I see the line comes from the left on your chart but there's nothing there, except for the the high in the middle of your chart. When you look to the right 1340 doesn't look like it provides any sort of S/R, price just goes straight through it. So where does it come from?

 

I'd look at it this way:

As for tomorrow, I may do an ES day for my last day. The numbers will be 23, 30, 40 and 48, for starters.

 

Perhaps you could attach a chart from the ES, because the one you posted with those numbers is a different one. For example, where does 48 come from? I know I said 47-49 myself the other day, but that was strictly speaking only from the overnight. Erie said 46 yesterday, so I guess it's all around the same place yet we all have slightly different numbers.

 

As for 30, I'm clueless where that comes from. Price spent some time around 32-34 yesterday and reversed twice of that level. I would think these levels would be obvious S/R? See attached chart.

Edited March 28, 2008 by zeon

[zeon 10]

It's been suggested that the price level where the greatest number of trades takes place, should provide important S/R in the future.

 

So I tried plotting volume by price on my charts. However this results in having the zone 1335-1340 as important, but when I see other people's S/R levels, that one doesn't quite add up

[erierambler 10]

Why 40? I see the line comes from the left on your chart but there's nothing there, except for the the high in the middle of your chart. When you look to the right 1340 doesn't look like it provides any sort of S/R, price just goes straight through it. So where does it come from?

.

 

Here Zeon, look at the last two days, with the circles.

erie

[heretodaygone... 10]

Here's the gamut of s/r I'm using for today. Chop zone 1334-1344.Resistance 1352,60,74. Support 1325,17,10

 

Zeon, I agree with you. I don't like the subjectivety of hand drawn s/r. Having said that, they are just lines on a chart. I just keep asking myself the same question...are buyers showing strength? or weakness? or better yet....are buyers accepting or rejecting these price levels?

[erierambler 10]

Zeon, I agree with you. I don't like the subjectivety of hand drawn s/r. Having said that, they are just lines on a chart.

 

No problem, I don't need to post the charts with explanations, I can agree with that as well.......

erie

[zeon 10]

Here Zeon, look at the last two days, with the circles.

erie

 

Sorry, not trying to be the proverbial pain in the ass here, but...

 

I'm seeing price go through that level as if nothing is there, about 5 times in last two days. I agree the "sideways volume" there is noteably higher than elsewhere, but that's about it...

 

See my chart, the pink line is where you and dbphoenix have resistance, the blue lines is where I would mark them. That, and the bigcharts volume by price chart.

 

The only thing that strikes me is that 1340 happens to be the middle of yesterday's action. But why would a calculated point provide s/r anymore than for example pivot points or fibonacci levels for that matter?

[heretodaygone... 10]

No problem, I don't need to post the charts with explanations, I can agree with that as well.......

erie

 

It was a blanket comment, not meant to insinuate anything or anyone. I quite enjoy your perspective as it helps me see what others are seeing.

 

good trading

[zeon 10]

Here's the gamut of s/r I'm using for today. Chop zone 1334-1344.Resistance 1352,60,74. Support 1325,17,10

 

Zeon, I agree with you. I don't like the subjectivety of hand drawn s/r. Having said that, they are just lines on a chart. I just keep asking myself the same question...are buyers showing strength? or weakness? or better yet....are buyers accepting or rejecting these price levels?

 

But what's the alternative for drawing s/r by yourself? How else would you determine these levels? I've counted on s/r to guide me through the day, as they used to be levels where I could find nice entries in the past. Lately though it seems as price couldn't care less where there's s/r... They are just lines on a chart I agree. Trading without them would be like trying to find the keyhole blindfolded with your hands tied behind your back and the key in your mouth. Eventually you might succeed, but not before you've bumped into the door several times.

[heretodaygone... 10]

But what's the alternative for drawing s/r by yourself? How else would you determine these levels? I've counted on s/r to guide me through the day, as they used to be levels where I could find nice entries in the past. Lately though it seems as price couldn't care less where there's s/r... They are just lines on a chart I agree. Trading without them would be like trying to find the keyhole blindfolded with your hands tied behind your back and the key in your mouth. Eventually you might succeed, but not before you've bumped into the door several times.

 

Personally, I use market profile levels with an emphasis given to more recent levels.(traders have good memories but not that good )

[erierambler 10]

I'm seeing price go through that level as if nothing is there, about 5 times in last two days. I agree the "sideways volume" there is noteably higher than elsewhere, but that's about it...

 

See my chart, the pink line is where you and dbphoenix have resistance, the blue lines is where I would mark them. That, and the bigcharts volume by price chart.

 

The only thing that strikes me is that 1340 happens to be the middle of yesterday's action. But why would a calculated point provide s/r anymore than for example pivot points or fibonacci levels for that matter?

 

For one thing you need data for the ES, not bigcharts data. It's not price going through those levels it's the volume traded at price at the end of day one looks at. To see where the most volume occurred. If looking above existing price then where does all that volume start? Right now the chunk of volume starts at 1340, that's where possibly one would start to see resistance , if any If not, then it's not resistance. It's not 1340 is the middle of yesterday's action , I only look at volume traded at price. Regarding pivots and fib's, I won't even go there........

erie

[zeon 10]

For one thing you need data for the ES, not bigcharts data. It's not price going through those levels it's the volume traded at price at the end of day one looks at. To see where the most volume occurred. If looking above existing price then where does all that volume start? Right now the chunk of volume starts at 1340, that's where possibly one would start to see resistance , if any If not, then it's not resistance. It's not 1340 is the middle of yesterday's action , I only look at volume traded at price. Regarding pivots and fib's, I won't even go there........

erie

 

Ok, point taken. I didn't realize you only looked at volume by price, and not the "normal" volume...

 

My point about pivots and fibs was that I don't believe they could provide resistance. Sorry if I didn't quite make that clear.

 

I tend to look at swing points primarily. Like yesterday price tried to go higher but failed twice at a level where it had already failed before (1347-1349). The other place are the lows, around 1332-1335, as price first made a potential selling climax there and later reversed of there again (but not very far) it would be my guess that these levels are important. Perhaps I've completely misunderstood the concept of support and resistance, but that's what I used to do last year and it seemed to work fine then :\

[zeon 10]

Levels I'll be watching today :

 

1300

1316

1334

1346

 

All numbers are +/-1 point, so the areas are two points wide.

[erierambler 10]

Levels for today are:

1305, 1328, and 1334.

erie

Edited March 31, 2008 by erierambler
had one number wrong, now corrected

[DbPhoenix 42]

FWIW, using the volume range "boxes" from my Blog, the first resistance area is 23-23.25 and the second is 26.5-.75.