Real Time Price Action- Clue to Puzzle?

[DbPhoenix 42]

1332,1348,1358,1375 on attached chart.

erie

 

Are you experimenting with the volume range idea?

[erierambler 10]

Are you experimenting with the volume range idea?

 

No experimenting here, I 've been using " volume at price " for a long time now on my charts every day. Not sure what "volume range" means and I've never come across that language.

erie

[zeon 10]

As this is the real time price action thread, I'm going to ask this straight away! Looking at the ES, this is what I am currently observing:

 

The pink lines are where I consider support to be. It looks like the lines were drawn around the right place, because there is some action going on there.

 

(A) selling climax on support on high volume!

(B) there's the news about the housing market

© a re-test of the selling climax on lower volume AND the bar closes well off the lows... this is THE long entry, right?!

 

And then price goes lower. I believe it was Eiger who posted a very similar analysis yesterday. I'd really like to know where I'm going wrong this time. Because no matter how much time I study charts, and do my analysis, in real time I'm always taking losing trades.

[erierambler 10]

As this is the real time price action thread, I'm going to ask this straight away! Looking at the ES, this is what I am currently observing:

 

The pink lines are where I consider support to be. It looks like the lines were drawn around the right place, because there is some action going on there.

 

(A) selling climax on support on high volume!

(B) there's the news about the housing market

© a re-test of the selling climax on lower volume AND the bar closes well off the lows... this is THE long entry, right?!

 

And then price goes lower. I believe it was Eiger who posted a very similar analysis yesterday. I'd really like to know where I'm going wrong this time. Because no matter how much time I study charts, and do my analysis, in real time I'm always taking losing trades.

 

As you can see from my previous post I don't have a s/r point where you took your long entry. It would have helped if you posted your pre-analysis before hand. I also don't watch volume intraday , nor news, can't figure out which one is important anyway so I just watch price.

erie

[DbPhoenix 42]

As this is the real time price action thread, I'm going to ask this straight away! Looking at the ES, this is what I am currently observing:

 

The pink lines are where I consider support to be. It looks like the lines were drawn around the right place, because there is some action going on there.

 

(A) selling climax on support on high volume!

(B) there's the news about the housing market

© a re-test of the selling climax on lower volume AND the bar closes well off the lows... this is THE long entry, right?!

 

And then price goes lower. I believe it was Eiger who posted a very similar analysis yesterday. I'd really like to know where I'm going wrong this time. Because no matter how much time I study charts, and do my analysis, in real time I'm always taking losing trades.

 

If you don't understand what you're doing, why are you taking trades at all?

[zeon 10]

If you don't understand what you're doing, why are you taking trades at all?

 

 

I'm only taking papertrades. And I have pretty much defined what I am looking for in real time... but nomatter how much time I put into these things, in realtime I seem to be wrong a whole lot of the time.

[zeon 10]

As you can see from my previous post I don't have a s/r point where you took your long entry. It would have helped if you posted your pre-analysis before hand. I also don't watch volume intraday , nor news, can't figure out which one is important anyway so I just watch price.

erie

 

 

The S/R point comes from the low from the previous day, and the high on the 19th.

 

My prepost levels were (and are) these:

 

support 1342-1344

resistance 1357-1359

potential resistance 1349-1350

 

Pre-market plan was to go long on a re-test on support.

Edited March 26, 2008 by zeon

[DbPhoenix 42]

I'm only taking papertrades. And I have pretty much defined what I am looking for in real time... but nomatter how much time I put into these things, in realtime I seem to be wrong a whole lot of the time.

 

Paper or not, what you seem to be accomplishing for the most part is an ever-increasing degree of frustration. If you're continuing to make a lot of poor decisions, then you clearly don't understand what you're looking at. If you don't understand what you're looking at, you can't possibly define it.

 

Whatever you've been doing has clearly not been helpful to you. So stop doing it. I suggest instead that you stop looking for answers everywhere but in the chart. Just sit in front of your screen with a simple price and volume chart and just follow it. Don't trade. Don't think about what you would do or not do about anything you see. Don't think about how much money you would have made or lost if you had taken that back there. Just observe. Ignore all analysis regardless of where it comes from, particularly if there are a lot of past tense verbs in it ("here's the trade I took", "here's the trade I saw", etc).

 

If you find this intolerably boring, then get yourself a charting program with replay and play the day back at 5x or 10x real time. Do this every single day without exception. Take notes. Review your notes at the end of every day, every week, every two weeks, every month. Even if you still can't detect any patterns of any kind in anything that you're looking at, you will at least have laid a better groundwork for further study than what you have now.

[zeon 10]

Paper or not, what you seem to be accomplishing for the most part is an ever-increasing degree of frustration. If you're continuing to make a lot of poor decisions, then you clearly don't understand what you're looking at. If you don't understand what you're looking at, you can't possibly define it.

 

Whatever you've been doing has clearly not been helpful to you. So stop doing it. I suggest instead that you stop looking for answers everywhere but in the chart. Just sit in front of your screen with a simple price and volume chart and just follow it. Don't trade. Don't think about what you would do or not do about anything you see. Don't think about how much money you would have made or lost if you had taken that back there. Just observe. Ignore all analysis regardless of where it comes from, particularly if there are a lot of past tense verbs in it ("here's the trade I took", "here's the trade I saw", etc).

 

If you find this intolerably boring, then get yourself a charting program with replay and play the day back at 5x or 10x real time. Do this every single day without exception. Take notes. Review your notes at the end of every day, every week, every two weeks, every month. Even if you still can't detect any patterns of any kind in anything that you're looking at, you will at least have laid a better groundwork for further study than what you have now.

 

 

Thanks for your advice, but I did that three years ago, then I came up with something where I managed to have reasonable success with for some time, but the 'profits' become thin since +/- August last year and then basically since December I'm losing money. I've gone over everything and I can't seem to find anything that I'm doing wrong. Okay, I have taken trades that weren't part of the plan occasionally. But that's another thing, the discipline. At least I know where the failures are coming from. But when suddenly more than half of your 'plan-trades' turn into losers, ...

 

Take today's example, I'm sure this would've been a profitable trade last year. Have the markets changed? Have I stopped following my rules? Has my system stopped working? I don't know, but I know I need something to hold on to and I can't imagine going back to square zero, when I put so much time and effort in all of this in the past.

 

I am posting charts and trades here and in my blog, so other people might help pinpoint the origin of why the trade is failing. Because to be honest, I can't see what I'm doing wrong.

[DbPhoenix 42]

You still haven't explained why you're taking trades if you don't understand what you see.

[zeon 10]

1332,1348,1358,1375 on attached chart.

erie

 

I also have 1348-1358 as chop zone, with 1375 as a great target if price breaks through 1358. my only difference with your numbers is that I see support at 1337.

 

good trading

 

 

Thank you guys for posting your numbers, I'll try to do the same each day. Perhaps this might help to find out where I'm going wrong. Apparently, I'm seeing support at levels where others aren't :doh:

[zeon 10]

You still haven't explained why you're taking trades if you don't understand what you see.

 

 

Ehm... I think I understand what I'm seeing. But if I'm wrong about what I'm seeing, than I guess I either don't understand it or it's just one of these trades that go wrong nomatter how good the analysis is.

 

Let's say I didn't take trades (even if they aren't real), I'd still be looking for the pattern. For example, I have several 'setups', two of them are the following:

 

(a) shooting star at resistance, short on the next bar if price goes down

(b) re-test on lower volume after a selling climax (on huge vol) on support

 

Today, I saw (b) in real time. So either it wasn't a selling climax, or it wasn't a re-test, or my support was incorrect. I'm not sure what else there is to understand to be honest...

[DbPhoenix 42]

Ehm... I think I understand what I'm seeing. But if I'm wrong about what I'm seeing, than I guess I either don't understand it or it's just one of these trades that go wrong nomatter how good the analysis is.

 

Let's say I didn't take trades (even if they aren't real), I'd still be looking for the pattern. For example, I have several 'setups', two of them are the following:

 

(a) shooting star at resistance, short on the next bar if price goes down

(b) re-test on lower volume after a selling climax (on huge vol) on support

 

Today, I saw (b) in real time. So either it wasn't a selling climax, or it wasn't a re-test, or my support was incorrect. I'm not sure what else there is to understand to be honest...

 

All right, let's assume that you understand what you're seeing.

 

Define:

 

1. shooting star

 

2. resistance

 

3. bar

 

4. down

 

5. re-test

 

6. lower

 

7. selling climax

 

8. huge

 

9. support

 

If you don't want to, or can't, then all you're doing is exchanging buzzwords and catch phrases with other people who may not have defined these words and phrases either or, if they have, may not have defined them in the same way you have.

 

The answers are in the chart. How you describe what you see is in you. It's up to you to match up the one with the other.

[zeon 10]

All right, let's assume that you understand what you're seeing.

 

Define:

 

1. shooting star

 

2. resistance

 

3. bar

 

4. down

 

5. re-test

 

6. lower

 

7. selling climax

 

8. huge

 

9. support

 

If you don't want to, or can't, then all you're doing is exchanging buzzwords and catch phrases with other people who may not have defined these words and phrases either or, if they have, may not have defined them in the same way you have.

 

The answers are in the chart. How you describe what you see is in you. It's up to you to match up the one with the other.

 

 

Okay, just give me some time and I'll write down my definitions.

[zeon 10]

Here we are...

 

Shooting star: a type of candlestick forms where the upper shadow is much longer than the real body and the lower Shadow is small or non-existent. The kind of shooting star I'm looking for appears at a resistance level and not in mid-air and after a directional upmove has occurred. The upper shadow is a sign that there are a lot of sellers above that level that manage to push price lower. The best shooting stars occur when price pierces resistance, but then moves back below it.

 

Resistance: this is an area or zone where sellers previously managed to overcome buyers and turn price around. It can be seen as something as a ceiling that prevents price from going higher. However, there's no such thing as guarantuees because resistance can be "breached" temporarily only to come back lower some time later. So you need to see what price does when it approaches resistance.

 

Bar: I don't know what more to say, than that a bar is part of what a chart is composed of. Bars like candles or like line charts are all means of representing price.

 

Down: when price is going down, it's moving lower than what is was in the previous timeperiod. So in scenario (a), if the previous bar closed at 1350, then we short when we see the next bar going down 1 point. This is the entry with a market order.

 

Re-test: this occurs after a selling climax has taken place. A successful re-test means that what was previously identified as preliminary support is now confirmed to be support. This might not mean price will go up straight away, it might go sideways for some time, but eventually it should start to move higher.

 

Lower: volume is lower when it is relative to the volume on the bar or candle that you are comparing it with, at least 1k lower

 

Selling climax: when after a prolonged (this depends on the timeframe one is observing, selling climaxes occur on every timeframe) downmove, buyers manage to sweep sellers and the selling abruptly comes to an end. This usually is only temporarily, as then a "technical rally" follows: this means that there are momentarily no sellers left to push price lower. The selling climax doesn't need to be the low of the move or it doesn't even mean that price is going to reverse straight away. It also depends on whether there's support in the vicinity or not. That's why going long on a selling climax on support has higher probability of succeeding than just going long randomly. A selling climax usually occurs when the selling accelerates and the sharpness of the downmove increases. The price level where the selling climax takes place, can be identified as preliminary support.

 

Huge: volume is 'huge' when it's in comparison to the normal average volume on the choosen timeframe at least 1.5 times as high.

 

Support: an area, zone where previously buyers managed to overcome sellers and turn price area. Support is where I'm looking to buy, and usually has been a previous swing point. Support can be seen on various timeframes and there's major/minor support, etc. The support I'm looking for to trade off is usually from the previous days. I feel these levels are more reliable than others. Nonetheless, I always note important support levels if they are outside the last couple of days range.

 

These are the definitions I've come up with after all the time I spent reading books and studying charts. They may not be the same for everyone, but they work for me. Well, at least they used to work... :\

Edited March 26, 2008 by zeon

[DbPhoenix 42]

I'm sure you understand that these definitions are very general and incorporate still more buzzwords and catchphrases that themselves should be defined. But setting all of that aside for what some people would consider an academic exercise but what is nonetheless critical for long-term success, apply whichever of the above definitions are pertinent to the chart you posted and explain step by step what you saw and why you did what you did at each of those steps.

[zeon 10]

I'm sure you understand that these definitions are very general and incorporate still more buzzwords and catchphrases that themselves should be defined. But setting all of that aside for what some people would consider an academic exercise but what is nonetheless critical for long-term success, apply whichever of the above definitions are pertinent to the chart you posted and explain step by step what you saw and why you did what you did at each of those steps.

 

 

If you still consider all these to be general, then I'm not quite sure what you mean. Perhaps you could give me a definition of something to illustrate how specific one can be.

 

I'll go over the chart again, although I don't think there's much I can add...

[DbPhoenix 42]

What I mean is not particularly important. What matters is what you mean. What I'm asking is that you apply whichever of these terms are pertinent to the chart and illustrate them with the chart.

 

For example, is there a "shooting star" here? If so, where is it?

 

Also, could you post a chart that's not cut off at the bottom?

[zeon 10]

Okay, so we open today around 1348 and immediately start to move lower. The selling increased on the way down and candle just before A has the highest volume of all. This candle also closes off the lows, with the low exactly on support at 1342.50 (lower pink line). The candle at 'A' has slightly less volume (but it's still huge), and this time buyers price price above the support line after it dropped below it to 1341.50.

 

The next candle moves us up back to 1344 on lower volume than the two previous bars. So selling looks exhausted, as we apparently manage to go higher without the need of much volume. Notice how all of the upbars - there are three of those - have lower volume than the previous candle. So this is what I'd identify as 'the technical rally'. At 'B' we have news, so the huge volume here is a bit out of context and we ignore it.

 

After that price waffles around 1345-1347 before touching the upper line of the support area at 1344.50. The two previous candles all closed near the low but at 'C' volume is enough to make price bounce a bit off 1344.50. With the next candle being an upbar closing at the high, on very low volume (actually the lowest we've seen all day since the open), this makes 'C' a succesful re-test. Selling pressure evaporated and the candle after C is the long signal.

 

I've gone over this chart three times now, and despite how I look at it, I still am convinced about what I felt and what I saw in realtime. Even looking at it in hindsight, I would still see the same. I can't get my get around looking at it differently, because all that I've said here, is in line with the definitions I've made for myself.

[zeon 10]

What I mean is not particularly important. What matters is what you mean. What I'm asking is that you apply whichever of these terms are pertinent to the chart and illustrate them with the chart.

 

For example, is there a "shooting star" here? If so, where is it?

 

Also, could you post a chart that's not cut off at the bottom?

 

 

No, there's no shooting star. I didn't say this was scenario (a) where I'd be looking for a short trade. In fact, this is the opposite. This is scenario (b) where I'm looking to go long off support.

 

Sorry about the charts, it's the only way they fit exactly on my screen. I can't find much chart exporting options in Sierra Charts other than 'copy to bitmap'.

 

Edit: please find attached the same chart with timing on it.

Edited March 26, 2008 by zeon

[DbPhoenix 42]

No, there's no shooting star. I didn't say this was scenario (a) where I'd be looking for a short trade. In fact, this is the opposite. This is scenario (b) where I'm looking to go long off support.

 

Sorry about the charts, it's the only way they fit exactly on my screen. I can't find much chart exporting options in Sierra Charts other than 'copy to bitmap'.

 

Edit: please find attached the same chart with timing on it.

 

All right. The lynch pin of (b) appears to be a "selling climax" at "support". If "support" is the pink line, where did it come from?

[zeon 10]

All right. The lynch pin of (b) appears to be a "selling climax" at "support". If "support" is the pink line, where did it come from?

 

 

Ok, first of all we have the high of the 19th, this should now act as support. And the low from the previous day. They are both at 1342.50.

 

The upper support line is from the overnight action, but I pay less attention to that. However, a re-test can be higher than the selling climax, and in this case that seemed to be the case.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Fair enough. Now where's resistance?

 

And if you want to work with your charts, click Edit>Copy then paste them to Paint on your hard drive.

[zeon 10]

Fair enough. Now where's resistance?

 

And if you want to work with your charts, click Edit>Copy then paste them to Paint on your hard drive.

 

 

Resistance is in the zone 1358-1360. From yesterday and the day before...

[DbPhoenix 42]

Resistance is in the zone 1358-1360. From yesterday and the day before...

 

So your scenario, I assume, is to buy support and sell resistance?