Trading with PA "No Indicators"

[HTM 10]

This is an interesting topic. I hope this input is not too far removed from it...

 

I think if an indicator can show a certain aspect of price &/or volume &/or time behaviour that you believe is important then it should be used. If you can look at price &/or volume &/or time and trade/invest without the aid of any 'indicator' then that is right too. I actually believe that the better a trader gets the more likely it is she (or he) will use only price, volume and time. I suppose my point here is that there is no one right and wrong way.

 

I say all this because up until recently I have been a 'no indicator' believer (not because I am one of those good traders - far from it). But I have recognised I need to see a relationship between price and volume that my price and volume charts were not showing me clearly, and so now I use an indicator to help me see that relationship. I think the key to using an indicator is to fully understand what it is showing, fully understand the mathematics of its calculation (most indicators are simple enough for me to understand the maths...so anyone can!) and fully understand it limitations and constraints. I would also add that my use of the indicator does not extend to it being the buy/sell trigger - I would be interested if anyone does use an indicator in this way as I believe the entry and exit decisions comes from price alone.

 

 

 

Another point - what is an indicator?

I use the volume at ask minus the volume at bid on my charts - is this an indicator? I think of it as data generated by the market, it only becomes an indicator if I do something like apply a moving average to it.

 

Just wondering what software you might use to get the "indicator" volume at ask minus the volume at bid? Sounds like a great concept.

 

Thank you,

 

HTM

[joshdance 10]

My apologies Joshdance - and thanks for being gracious about it.

 

I noticed your reply was unbiased generally.

I over-reacted to the "without the blessing of Jim" bit!

 

Cheers

 

No worries Ingot, I enjoy your posts on the forum and didn't want you to think I had a particular "side" for things like this.. I'm just here to learn

[joshdance 10]

Just wondering what software you might use to get the "indicator" volume at ask minus the volume at bid? Sounds like a great concept.

 

Thank you,

 

HTM

 

It's in many software packages, usually called "delta" or some type of "bid ask" study.

[GreenSense 10]

I am New Trader and I read forum Price action Style , But i have a problem , I dont know for Backtest Price action for Plan Trade , Please tell to me for solve problem

 

Thank You So Much

[joshdance 10]

I am New Trader and I read forum Price action Style , But i have a problem , I dont know for Backtest Price action for Plan Trade , Please tell to me for solve problem

 

Thank You So Much

 

I have found back testing price action to be very difficult, as you must go bar by bar, and try to objectively read the action. The difference is also, that you don't see the price moving in real time, you don't know HOW the bar formed, you don't know how fast and where the volume came in the bar, tape speed, other markets at the time, etc. All those factors make objectively back testing price action only quite difficult. Some more mechanical methods may be more well-suited for accurate back testing. This is of course only my opinion and others may have had more success than me. I am great back testing in hindsight, but in real time, and with real money, it's a whole different ball game.

[drebg 10]

Hi, just go to Google and type in Nial Fuller, or you can check his site out here: URL Deleted by Moderator learn to trade the market[/url].

 

Just a quick note on Nial- though there is SOME uniqueness to what he shares, false-breaks have been around forever. And, his setups ARE good but EVERYTHING he sells is in his free videos.

 

Further, he has been kicked-out of MANY fourms/sites for his questionable motives/tactics/ethics. You can check more reviews at many sites including some threads I have been part of at Informedtrades.com.

 

Just my 2 cents. Good luck, All!

[GreenSense 10]

I have found back testing price action to be very difficult, as you must go bar by bar, and try to objectively read the action. The difference is also, that you don't see the price moving in real time, you don't know HOW the bar formed, you don't know how fast and where the volume came in the bar, tape speed, other markets at the time, etc. All those factors make objectively back testing price action only quite difficult. Some more mechanical methods may be more well-suited for accurate back testing. This is of course only my opinion and others may have had more success than me. I am great back testing in hindsight, but in real time, and with real money, it's a whole different ball game.

 

Thank you so much for suggest and If I backtest by use Trennd line, Resistance Lne , Support Line ( Main Level ) and after that I observe Price Action ( Pinbar , Inside Bar , Fakey ,....) near Main Level for entry trade , I don't know I accurate backtest ?

 

Thank You So Much

[equtrader 10]

Interesting discussion. Another approach to price action here:

 

The Most Advanced Tool for Analyzing Price Action and Discovering Trading Systems

 

This one automates price pattern discovery and writes code for backtesting but it also backtests internally.

[emg 12]

!

 

u the moderated in this "The Candlestick Corner All about candlesticks. Moderated by brownsfan019."

 

cmon!! is this a joke? i would expect u to be promoting your platform and i bring misery to traders.

[stpips89 10]

Just a quick note on Nial- though there is SOME uniqueness to what he shares, false-breaks have been around forever. And, his setups ARE good but EVERYTHING he sells is in his free videos.

 

Further, he has been kicked-out of MANY fourms/sites for his questionable motives/tactics/ethics. You can check more reviews at many sites including some threads I have been part of at Informedtrades.com.

 

Just my 2 cents. Good luck, All!

 

That's not true really. I'm a member at Nial's site and there's WAY more info in the member's area, everything goes much further in-depth too and its a systematic education, whereas the free stuff is just in a random blog format. Plus, he adds new member's material often, usually every two weeks or so there's a new article or video or something.

 

The informed trades thing Nial has responded to, they were trying to defame him unfairly. If you look at their site they are trying to get you to buy a price action course, so they are just trying to make Nial look bad so that people buy an inferior price action course instead of his. This to me makes THEM look bad, Nial is a genuine guy, I've talked to him on Skype.

[Keroro 10]

I like this kind of trading --- Price Pattern

 

any one have "statistic" or "Search" pattern probability program ffor TS / MC?

 

and most important is

 

Pivot command in TS /MC seem "unstable" @@

[targus 10]

Is there any good candlestick identification tool available for metatrader?

 

The only decent ones I have found are 2 or 3 at forex-std and they are free, Candlestick-v1 is very good, however, it repaints, on the 4hr t/f it is excellent.

[gianno 10]

The only decent ones I have found are 2 or 3 at forex-std and they are free, Candlestick-v1 is very good, however, it repaints, on the 4hr t/f it is excellent.

 

Any idea about the success rate of candlestick identification, in terms of win rate?

[joshdance 10]

Any idea about the success rate of candlestick identification, in terms of win rate?

 

Are you serious......?

[gianno 10]

Are you serious......?

 

I am serious. Are you?

[BlowFish 10]

Any idea about the success rate of candlestick identification, in terms of win rate?

 

Without 'context' I'd bet it's about 50/50. Of course you could easily make that 30/70 or 70/30 by adjusting stops and targets (R:R).

 

There are many more variables than a simple entry pattern that determine 'win rate'.

[Ingot54 13]

Is there any good candlestick identification tool available for metatrader?

Russ Horn is giving one away free to promote his latest Commercial System release (already sold out I believe).

 

I have it, but I am not interested in using it. Unsure how good it is for that reason.

 

If you Google: Russ Horn Candle recognition software you will find more than enough links to locate the indicator, the manual, and a youtube vid on how to use it.

 

He had "only 750 copies" @ $999 for sale, and suddenly found an extra 21 hidden somewhere, for "those who missed out!".

 

The maths: 750 x $999 = $749,250

 

OR ... you can make 2 x $650 payments instead.

 

Now I don't know about you, but I've got an idea ... :rofl:

[equtrader 10]

Any idea about the success rate of candlestick identification, in terms of win rate?

 

Check these studies:

 

Performance of Candlestick Analysis on Intraday Futures Data: The Journal of Derivatives

 

Market Timing with Candlestick Technical Analysis by Ben Marshall, Martin Young, Lawrence (Larry) Rose :: SSRN

 

Together they indicate that this is not a technique to use by itself and on its own merit.

 

Besides, candlesticks are a special subset of price patterns. See the link I gave above for Price Action Lab. It can find many more possibilities than just candlesticks. Some of the patterns it can find are typical candle formations.

[stpips89 10]

Check these studies:

 

Performance of Candlestick Analysis on Intraday Futures Data: The Journal of Derivatives

 

Market Timing with Candlestick Technical Analysis by Ben Marshall, Martin Young, Lawrence (Larry) Rose :: SSRN

 

Together they indicate that this is not a technique to use by itself and on its own merit.

 

Besides, candlesticks are a special subset of price patterns. See the link I gave above for Price Action Lab. It can find many more possibilities than just candlesticks. Some of the patterns it can find are typical candle formations.

 

I think you raise a good point, although indirectly. Candlestick formations are not really a "trading strategy", it takes knowing when and where to trade them and in what combination with other factors of confluence.

[Keroro 10]

How about Elliott wave theory.

[joshdance 10]

like Nial Fuller teaches.

 

stpips, are you here for anything except to promote Nial? You've had 40 posts on this forum and you mention his name or web site in at least 20 of those posts.

[wrbtrader 10]

Any idea about the success rate of candlestick identification, in terms of win rate?

 

There are other threads here at Traderslaboratory about this specific topic and the success rate is greatly different from one trading instrument to another and from one candlestick pattern to another.

 

It's just best you get access to historical data of whatever it is that you're trading and then do your own personal testing (manually if needed) via any particular candlestick pattern you like via your particular trade management of candlestick patterns.

 

My point with the above statement is that its a proven fact that the trade management after entry has a dramatic impact on the success rate of any particular candlestick pattern and such has been proven many times by backtesters that differ from each other via how they manage the trade after a candlestick pattern signal has been given.

 

As for auto trading via candlestick codes...highly not recommended as a price action method.

[doubletop11 10]

I've attached (hopfully) 3 charts of 777 tic, 110 tic and 16 tic that is annotated. This is not something I put together. One of the traders in the group did to describe the method they trade by. I posted it for the interest of others and I'm also curious of the opinons of the followers of TL.

 

I LOVE this style of trading. It is simply the best style. Al Brooks does ES price action videos to help you learn. I to had a ton of indicators on my screen. Blew out a small account. Then found this Pure Price Action approach. This all happened about a year ago. Then I found a theory about something called Zones. Dynamic S/R that are on key timeframes. 4 hour charts, 60 min charts, 30, 15min.... These zones work based on your rules of pure price action. Yet they give you market memory! So I did a ton of looking around and I didn't find anything that identified these zones for you so you spend all your time when you are not trading drawing zones, and lining up good entries for the next day from the confluence of these zones. Nice thing about this is you only get a couple of good entries a day so I'm not trading and paying nearly as much in commissions anymore. . The other wierd thing about these zones are they line up with a lot of key fib point, as well as pivots. I'll be trading with someone and I tell them I will buy here or there, and they will tell me ohh that's right ontop of a 50% retrace, and a R1 level. There's some really cool other features too. But I don't want to spoil it for you.

 

Being the techie that I am, I was able to actually recall some of my C++ programming; learn the new ideas in C#; and program out these zones. So now I trade pure price action with these zones. I call it Advanced Price Action (APA zones).

 

My suggestion would be continue to hang out with these people! you might also try a 5 min. chart.

 

Here's what my charts look like now.

 

 

These zones change color with how many times price has retested them.

Aqua = fresh,

1 bounce = blue,

2 bounces = yellow,

3 bounce =purple,

4 or more =grey.

 

I want to take the first retest of zones because that's usually the strongest. Even if that first retest is a few day after that zone was drawn. Can be a day high/low.

Edited July 8, 2011 by doubletop11

[wrbtrader 10]

I LOVE this style of trading. It is simply the best style. Al Brooks does ES price action videos to help you learn. I to had a ton of indicators on my screen. Blew out a small account. Then found this Pure Price Action approach. This all happened about a year ago. Then I found a theory about something called Zones. Dynamic S/R that are on key timeframes.

 

Al Brooks uses an indicator called EMA (exponential moving averages) in his method. Thus, some traders need to sit down and decide if they want to trade without indicators or trade with one indicator. If the latter, it's OK but its not trading without indicators. Anyways, I think some traders get a little lost with Al Brooks because many of them believe using "one indicator" is still price trading without indicators.

 

If someone saids the EMA indicator is not important in making trade decisions...then remove it from the charts. :doh:

 

Regardless, glad you found Dynamic S/R Zones and I too think they are useful.

Edited July 8, 2011 by wrbtrader

[stpips89 10]

stpips, are you here for anything except to promote Nial? You've had 40 posts on this forum and you mention his name or web site in at least 20 of those posts.

 

So you've been counting? I mention him a lot because he really helped me. I was lost in a sea of confusing indicators and then I found his site and realized I didn't need them at all. Since then, about 1 year has passed, and I am now making money every month. I am not really so much as promoting him as I am "paying it back". He offers more value in his education services than anything else I have seen, and I've seen about all of it as regards Forex system / strategies.