Trading with PA "No Indicators"

[laredo 10]

Ninjatrader software has a very quick line drawing design and with a little practice drawing S/R lines becomes an after thought.

[maxwells 10]

Heya, I understand most of it but as for you number 8-9 (PRH (Pivot Range High , PRL (Pivot Range Low), that I dont' . COuld you please elaborate on them (formula, trading usefullness,etc...) when you have time. Thanks

 

Max

 

 

 

Simply, Yes.

 

They are far better than mathematically derived numbers like "Floor Pivots". Key Numbers, aka floor pivots, derive their utility from two things: regression to the mean, and self fulfilling prophecy.

 

Market profile lines have as their basis the concept that because the market found support/resistance at this level today, all things being equal it should find the same there tomorrow. The market has memory. It knows when a price level is reached that found sellers/buyers the previous time the level was reached. If 510 on the emini, for example, brings in the bulls today as they see value, there is a good chance they will again see value at that level going forward.

 

I have been playing with this concept a bit after reading an article from Straightforex.com. Instead of using key numbers, they use what they call a "Market Map". The map consists of:

 

1. YH (Yesterday's High)

2. YL (Yesterday's Low)

3. DYH (Day before yesterday's High)

4. DYL (Day before Yesterday's Low)

5. PP (Pivot Point) (O+L+H)/3

 

The first 4 are already HUPs (Hold Up Prices) and may continue to be. One thing the map tells us is if price is above the PP the trend may be up. If Price is above either or both YH or DYH and above the PP the trend is up. The reverse would be true for a down trend.

 

After reading a couple of threads on this forum, I have become predisposed to the Pivot Range concept that Pivot profiler talked about. So I add the Range to the map, plus a couple more HUPs.:

 

1. YH

2. YL

3. DYH

4. DYL

5. PMH (Pre Market High= highest high made between 5pm close and 2am open NY time)

6. PML (Pre Market Low= lowest low made between 5pm close and 2am open NY time)

7. PP (H+L+(2*C))/4

8. PRH (Pivot Range High)

9. PRL (Pivot Range Low)

[firewalker 10]

That is why it might make more sense to use static levels that are plotted before the day starts.

 

Exactly!

 

I have not read the book so I can't recommend it, but there is a book specifically about this type of method called "Price Action Trading".

 

Some levels to think about could be:

 

1. MP levels (POC, VAH,VAL)

2. Yesterday's High (YH)

3. Yesterday's Low (YL)

4. Day Before Yesterday's High (DBYH)

5. Day Before Yesterday's Low (DBYL)

6. Key numbers (aka Floor pivots)

7. Actual pivot levels-places where the market did react/retrace/stall.

 

Never head about the DBYH or DBYL

 

Brownsfan,

Also, my intension would be to use specifc targets for profit such as 4 tics, 6 tics and then moving my stop to B/E or B/E +1tic and letting my other 1/3 of the position run, but manage the trade and take profit at s/r. The last 1/3 should be a free trade at that point based on profit of the first 2/3 and moving the stop. This would be on the ES. I'm not looking to make a fortune in a day. If I can do what I just described on a consistent basis I would be very satisfied. Am I out of my mind or is it reasonable?

David

 

The problem with specific targets, is that they are static while the market is dynamic. You can do a whole lot of backtesting to determine what the maximum favourable excursion (MFE) is, after you enter a trade. You could then determine in what % of the cases price runs 70-80% of that MFE or in what % of cases it goes twice as far (for example). Depending on your strategy, you could then use these reference points as scaling out points. The backtesting might show superior results to real-time, if you try to determine those in absolute values. I think it's better to use values that are a function of the volatility. That way you have a better way of gauging the potential of a move.

 

But most importantly, you need to exit when the market tells you to. Trendlines can help there, volume might also give clues...

Edited August 4, 2008 by firewalker

[NomadTrader 10]

@email

re AB=CD. Assuming this is the Larry pasavento's fib work, how do you trade this exactly?

[Tams 20]

Hello to everyone in this thread and thanks to drsushi for starting it.

 

drsushi ,you are very fortunate to have found that group, very neet. I am a big pivot point trader myself and would be paralyzed if I did not use them.

I see most guys here use the same method I trade with; floor traders pivots, YH, YL, UVA, LVA. A good understanding of chart patterns and candles are essential, especially at resistance or support.

Always on the lookout for triangles, AB=CD, Gartleys will give you a good edge....

Cheers to all,

email

 

 

EasyLanguage Gartley is here:

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f46/pesavento-pattern-6044.html#post66119

 

Edited May 27, 2009 by Tams

[NomadTrader 10]

Thx Tams,

I know his work well. but an AB=CD is not a Gartley or a Butterfly its an ABCD where AB=CD. This can of course be part of a Gartley/Butterfly.

 

Wht iwas curious about was how people a re actually trading this?

Are you buying the .618 with a stop at the .786 and waiting to see if it fails at "C"?

[cashcube 10]

Is there any good candlestick identification tool available for metatrader?

[Mysticforex 13]

Is there any good candlestick identification tool available for metatrader?

 

There is a product called Autochartist. It works with meta trader. If you have an account with various brokers, it is free. I have never tried it.

[pricetrader99 10]

I joined a google group of traders that trades with price action alone. They use support and resistance areas from higher time frames and use multiple time frames down to 5, 8 or 16 tic charts for entry. The theory is based on six possible scenarios. A double top or lower high, these are both high failures, a double bottom or higher low, these are both low failures and higher highs and lower lows. If the low or high failure takes place at significant enough support or resistance there may be a trade to be had. I've attached (hopfully) 3 charts of 777 tic, 110 tic and 16 tic that is annotated. This is not something I put together. One of the traders in the group did to describe the method they trade by. I posted it for the interest of others and I'm also curious of the opinons of the followers of TL. I for one have struggled a great deal with the right indicator, TS add-on, timeframe blah blah blah and to tell you the truth this makes very good sense to me and If I use it with pivots and VAL POC and VAH for S/R I'm hoping it will have some merit. I'm fairly new to trading, so I'm hoping others with more experience will give thier thoughts.

 

David

 

Cool thread man, do you trade inside bars / pin bars / fakeys too? That's how I trade with PA. Of course also using levels / S/R / confluence, etc.

[stpips89 10]

Cool thread man, do you trade inside bars / pin bars / fakeys too? That's how I trade with PA. Of course also using levels / S/R / confluence, etc.

 

Hey pricetrader99,

 

I trade with those price action setups too, if you are savvy on the "fakey setup"?

[k.raaja 10]

Hi friends, could u post the google group link, which u are talking about.. Advanced thanks

[stpips89 10]

Hi friends, could u post the google group link, which u are talking about.. Advanced thanks

 

Hi, just go to Google and type in Nial Fuller, or you can check his site out here: learn to trade the market.

[BlowFish 10]

Hi friends, could u post the google group link, which u are talking about.. Advanced thanks

 

There are lots of great interwebz resources on price action many of the best are free. A few things off the top of my head Thales' excellent trading in real time thread here. There are a couple of decent threads in the candlestick corner too. Joe Ross law of charts is worth taking a look at, also threads by TraderDante and James16 (these are not on this site incidentally they cover pretty much the same material as Nial) BabyPips has good info too. There is a google group called Sanuk not too active but some good archives. I very much like Sam Seidens stuff. Lots of good resources those are just off the top of my head.

[onlyif 10]

I think that Sam Seiden's perspective on where the S&R lies can be very helpful. But as has been suggested, it takes a lot of work and time to turn conceptual understandings into successful trading.

 

Here's a link to a thread elsewhere that indexes some Seiden material.

 

URL Removed by Moderator.

[steve46 12]

I think that Sam Seiden's perspective on where the S&R lies can be very helpful. But as has been suggested, it takes a lot of work and time to turn conceptual understandings into successful trading.

 

Here's a link to a thread elsewhere that indexes some Seiden material.

 

URL Removed by Moderator.

 

One can see supply/demand analysis in "an institutional look at the S&P futures" and "trading adverse events"....

 

The operational basis of supply/demand analysis is simple...at some point along every supply/demand curve there is a point where price goes to zero. When you look at charts....IF you take the time to simply step back and THINK, you can see every point where this happens.....as participants define and re-define the boundaries of "value". Market Profile attempts to do this, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much. The problem for most students, retail and part time participants is that this looks a bit different on different time frames....so it you are a longer time frame trader...you would look for different "signals" than a person trading 5 minute candles...Here are a few basic concepts

 

First, use candles not bars...supply and demand are easier to see that way

Second...start with longer time frame charts..If you are a intraday participant, start with multi hour charts and work towards your chosen time frame. If you swing trade start with monthly and weekly charts.

Third...begin by identifying trending moves...and by that I mean sustained directional movement. This is subject to each person's definition but for our purposes the longer price can sustain a trend the easier it is to see the "effects" of supply/demand on price action, and the easier to see the eventual reversals

Fourth, Identify the origins of trend...these are often candles with long wicks pointing up or down depending on the direction of the trend.

Look for displays of momentum including...gap moves, wide range bars and parabolic movement.

The best trade opportunities occur when price moves from a significant imbalance through a point of equilibrium (balance) to either a resumption of trend or a reversal....at the boundaries of value, as participants define and redefine what constitutues fair (retail) and unfair (wholesale) you can see volume come in as institutions make the decision to commit capital to specific positions...This happens seasonally (as in my first charts in the thread "an institutional look at S&P futures)...and even on smaller time frames...as participants come in to defend the weekly open for example...

The problem for most folks is that to obtain a significant working understanding takes time..and most retail traders don't want to commit to the process....thats really too bad...I would say obtaining a good understanding of what supply/demand looks like on a chart is really a cornerstone to whatever success I have had...

 

So its Easter weekend...best wishes to all

[steve46 12]

One can see supply/demand analysis in "an institutional look at the S&P futures" and "trading adverse events"....

 

The operational basis of supply/demand analysis is simple...at some point along every supply/demand curve there is a point where price goes to zero. When you look at charts....IF you take the time to simply step back and THINK, you can see every point where this happens.....as participants define and re-define the boundaries of "value". Market Profile attempts to do this, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much. The problem for most students, retail and part time participants is that this looks a bit different on different time frames....so it you are a longer time frame trader...you would look for different "signals" than a person trading 5 minute candles...Here are a few basic concepts

 

First, use candles not bars...supply and demand are easier to see that way

Second...start with longer time frame charts..If you are a intraday participant, start with multi hour charts and work towards your chosen time frame. If you swing trade start with monthly and weekly charts.

Third...begin by identifying trending moves...and by that I mean sustained directional movement. This is subject to each person's definition but for our purposes the longer price can sustain a trend the easier it is to see the "effects" of supply/demand on price action, and the easier to see the eventual reversals

Fourth, Identify the origins of trend...these are often candles with long wicks pointing up or down depending on the direction of the trend.

Look for displays of momentum including...gap moves, wide range bars and parabolic movement.

The best trade opportunities occur when price moves from a significant imbalance through a point of equilibrium (balance) to either a resumption of trend or a reversal....at the boundaries of value, as participants define and redefine what constitutues fair (retail) and unfair (wholesale) you can see volume come in as institutions make the decision to commit capital to specific positions...This happens seasonally (as in my first charts in the thread "an institutional look at S&P futures)...and even on smaller time frames...as participants come in to defend the weekly open for example...

The problem for most folks is that to obtain a significant working understanding takes time..and most retail traders don't want to commit to the process....thats really too bad...I would say obtaining a good understanding of what supply/demand looks like on a chart is really a cornerstone to whatever success I have had...

 

So its Easter weekend...best wishes to all

 

Unfortunately there is poorly worded sentence in my quote above...It should read

 

"At some point along the supply/demand curve there is a price at which no participants are willing to buy or sell" (volume falls to zero).

[pricetrader99 10]

Can anyone tell me what the difference is between J16 and Nial Fuller teachings? Or perhaps tell me your opinion on which is better?

[joshdance 10]

Can anyone tell me what the difference is between J16 and Nial Fuller teachings? Or perhaps tell me your opinion on which is better?

 

Nial was originally a member of the J16 group, then he went to do his own thing, without the blessing of Jim I might add (thread over on FF where they both tell their side), thus to my knowledge they have very similar methodologies. As Jim as stated before, he took his ideas from Martin Pring and others, so as they say, "nothing new under the sun."

[Ingot54 13]

One can see supply/demand analysis in "an institutional look at the S&P futures" and "trading adverse events"....

 

The operational basis of supply/demand analysis is simple...at some point along every supply/demand curve there is a point where price goes to zero. When you look at charts....IF you take the time to simply step back and THINK, you can see every point where this happens.....as participants define and re-define the boundaries of "value". Market Profile attempts to do this, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much. The problem for most students, retail and part time participants is that this looks a bit different on different time frames....so it you are a longer time frame trader...you would look for different "signals" than a person trading 5 minute candles...Here are a few basic concepts

 

* First, use candles not bars...supply and demand are easier to see that way

 

* Second...start with longer time frame charts..If you are a intraday participant, start with multi hour charts and work towards your chosen time frame. If you swing trade start with monthly and weekly charts.

 

* Third...begin by identifying trending moves...and by that I mean sustained directional movement. This is subject to each person's definition but for our purposes the longer price can sustain a trend the easier it is to see the "effects" of supply/demand on price action, and the easier to see the eventual reversals

 

* Fourth, Identify the origins of trend...these are often candles with long wicks pointing up or down depending on the direction of the trend.

 

* FifthLook for displays of momentum including...gap moves, wide range bars and parabolic movement.

 

* SixthThe best trade opportunities occur when price moves from a significant imbalance through a point of equilibrium (balance) to either a resumption of trend or a reversal....at the boundaries of value, as participants define and redefine what constitutues fair (retail) and unfair (wholesale) you can see volume come in as institutions make the decision to commit capital to specific positions...This happens seasonally (as in my first charts in the thread "an institutional look at S&P futures)...and even on smaller time frames...as participants come in to defend the weekly open for example...

 

* SeventhThe problem for most folks is that to obtain a significant working understanding takes time..and most retail traders don't want to commit to the process....thats really too bad...

 

* EighthI would say obtaining a good understanding of what supply/demand looks like on a chart is really a cornerstone to whatever success I have had...

 

 

Steve - this is one of your best summaries of how to approach trading - I can only applaud your words and the man behind them for sharing it.

 

As a starting point for trading, the things you have written need to be printed out and glued to the screen of every aspiring trader. Apologies for adding the extra bullet points

 

You nailed it in one.

 

Thanks

[Tams 20]

Steve - this is one of your best summaries of how to approach trading - I can only applaud your words and the man behind them for sharing it.

 

As a starting point for trading, the things you have written need to be printed out and glued to the screen of every aspiring trader. Apologies for adding the extra bullet points

 

You nailed it in one.

 

Thanks

 

thanks for the formatting.

[Ingot54 13]

Nial was originally a member of the J16 group, then he went to do his own thing, without the blessing of Jim I might add (thread over on FF where they both tell their side), thus to my knowledge they have very similar methodologies. As Jim as stated before, he took his ideas from Martin Pring and others, so as they say, "nothing new under the sun."

 

Rather than repeat the words of others, why not simply email Nial, or ring him, and discuss this issue with him as I have.

 

Should Nial require the blessing of Jim?

 

What would you like Nial to do? Invent Price Action himself?

 

He never claimed he did.

 

Nor did Jim. Nor did Martin Pring. Nor did Austin Passamonte. Nor did Todd Mitchell. Nor did Steve Nison.

 

No one did. It was a process of recognition, evolving amongst traders as time went by, until it has become what it has today.

 

As you said: "Nothing new under the sun."

 

PA has been around for many many years. The issue comes down to the "brand" of PA that is being taught.

There are always going to be similarities, but it is the teacher and the philosophy behind it (approach) that creates the brand. There is certainly enough of a distinction in that.

 

Nial initiated the "Fakey" setup - that was a fairly original concept.

I think he can fairly claim to be the originator of that.

 

Nial Fuller will go ten miles to help you after you buy his course - I know - I bought it.

And if you find out that there is another ten miles to go to reach the next goal.

Guess what ... Nial will say: "C'mon mate. Let's go. This is the next step."

 

Get in touch with Nial Fuller, and ASK HIM THE SAME QUESTIONS face to face. The man is open and humble.

 

How many coaches do you know who put this information on the Internet?

 

Contact Us - Learn To Trade The Market

 

But please think about who you are hurting when you post stuff you have no personal experience of.

 

I hope my post is simply an over-reaction.

 

Regarding whose course is the best - I can only speak from experience.

 

I had a guest look at J16 inner forum. It is good - no doubt about that. However there are volumes of stuff to trawl through.

 

The Nial Fuller course is cheaper, more accessible, more compact and more specific about the setups. I can not comment about the support, because I didn't join J16. I have a friend who did, and paid a monthly for a year, to continue to get access to the trading course.

 

Please note - I am going purely on the experiences of a friend, who no longer trades, as he is heading up a franchising business interest overseas. (Google: popcake )

 

After that, you get life-time access to J16.

Current prices - I just looked - are USD$129/month.

That takes USD$1548 to get to life-time membership status.

 

With NF you get life-time access after just one payment!

Current life-time price - I just looked - USD$337.

 

J16 is 4.5 times more expensive.

 

I can't offer more than that. To me the choice is fairly clear - the people who write the testimonials regarding their experiences at both places are probably right.

They look through their own colored glasses - both groups have their devotees.

 

My choice is for the NF group. That's just me though.

YOU will need to make the assessment yourself if you are going down the PA route.

[joshdance 10]

Rather than repeat the words of others, why not simply email Nial, or ring him, and discuss this issue with him as I have.

 

Perhaps you should quote the person who asked me, as I was simply giving an answer to his question. I belong to no group, and I'm sure either would be fine. The free material available online is sufficient IMO. I have no horse in this race.

[Ingot54 13]

Perhaps you should quote the person who asked me, as I was simply giving an answer to his question. I belong to no group, and I'm sure either would be fine. The free material available online is sufficient IMO. I have no horse in this race.

 

My apologies Joshdance - and thanks for being gracious about it.

 

I noticed your reply was unbiased generally.

I over-reacted to the "without the blessing of Jim" bit!

 

Cheers

[Coogee 10]

This is a very valid concept which I have used since 1994 , however let me add the idea has been taken from the teachings of Charles Drummond [ Drummond Geometry ] .

 

Furthermore any attempt to computerze or mechanize the concepts and rules are doomed to failure.

[Ingot54 13]

This is a very valid concept which I have used since 1994 , however let me add the idea has been taken from the teachings of Charles Drummond [ Drummond Geometry ] .

 

Furthermore any attempt to computerze or mechanize the concepts and rules are doomed to failure.

 

Hi Coogee - and welcome to the forum.

 

Is there any benefit in digging up the original writings etc of Charles Drummond? I haven't Googled his work yet, it would be interested in what you have to add about his work.

 

Quite often these guys had a lot more peripheral information to share, that adds much more depth to the approach. But it is possible that much is lost by those who promote their work or translate it, through trying to popularise the best concepts. We get the icing, but there is more to the cake than the topping.

 

Thanks for postin

 

Edit: I found the Canadian link to the site - it looks reasonable

Edited April 26, 2011 by Ingot54