HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 21st May 2024.

NASDAQ Soars with AI and Semiconductor Stocks Leading the Charge, While AUD Struggles.
 

 

• The NASDAQ witnesses a large surge in buy orders at the opening of the US trading session, adding 0.80%. The index has added 13.74% in 2024 up to now.
• AI & Semiconductor stocks are mainly behind the upward surge in the market ahead of NVIDIA’s earnings report tomorrow evening.
• The Australian Dollar is again the worst performing currency for a second day with the AUD Index trading 0.22% lower.
• The RBA’s Meeting Minutes confirm the committee deem a “pause” the strongest case, but that a hike may be necessary if data is “overoptimistic”.

USA100 – AI Stocks and The Semi-Conductor Sector Ensure Momentum Continues!

The NASDAQ saw a decline in the price before the US market opened, but quickly changed thereafter. At the opening of the US session, the NASDAQ rose for 3 straight hours adding 0.80% before losing momentum. Due to the bullish momentum, the index again rose to renew its all-time highs.

The best performing stocks with yesterday’s markets were largely AI driven companies as well as companies within the semiconductor sector. Some of the best performing stocks within these sectors were Applied Materials (+3.71%), Lam Research Corp (+3.29%) and Micron Technology (+2.96%). However, investors are of course mainly focusing on NVIDIA which is also likely to determine the investor sentiment towards the index in general. NVIDIA stocks rose 2.49% during yesterday’s session and is trading 0.27% higher during today’s pre-trading hours.

No major events are in the books for the day which may influence NASDAQ. However, investors will monitor the FOMC Member’s speech, Mr Christopher Weller, who is also likely to add to the rhetoric from the past week. However, investors have largely ignored comments from the Fed regarding less rate cuts than previously thought. Therefore, the speech is likely to have minimal effect unless extremely hawkish.
 

Technical analysis does continue to point towards an upward price movement in the medium – longer term. The price waves continue to form higher lows and higher highs. Simultaneously, the price of the index is trading above the Moving Averages and above 50.00 on the RSI. However, technical analysts advise the upward price movement may be lesser than yesterday’s due to the upcoming earnings data.

The US 10-year bond yields rose 0.05% during this morning’s Asian session. ideally investors would like to see yields remain no higher than their current point to support a further upward trend. During yesterday’s session 73% of stocks holding a weight of more than half a percent rose. For further upward price movement, investors would ideally like to again see more than 70% of the components rise further.

AUDUSD – A Break Of The Support Level Could Strengthen Sell Signals!

This morning the AUDUSD exchange rate fell 0.33% to retrace upwards when reaching the previous support level. The Australian Dollar Index is the worst performing currency trading 0.22% lower. However, the exchange rate is struggling to gain momentum below the 0.66471 support level. If the price declines below this level, sell signals are likely to strengthen.
 

For the exchange rate to gain momentum, the US Dollar Index will also need to support price action. The most recent support for the currency is the hawkish comments from members of the Federal Reserve Open Committee. Mrs. Loretta advises 3 rate cuts are no longer appropriate and more or less not possible, and also advises the market is no longer worried that the policy is too restrictive. Mr Bostic also added to the hawkish rhetoric.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Meeting Minutes confirm that the committee favor a pause and remain largely predictable. However, the Meeting Minutes also state the regulator would consider a hike if data became more optimistic. Nonetheless, this has not yet had a positive effect.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 22nd May 2024.

UK Inflation Drop Boosts GBP, But Analysts See Correction Signals.

• The NASDAQ forms its 5th bullish wave resulting in the index trading 8% higher this month alone. Investors are waiting for NVIDIA’s earnings report.
• The market awaits the release of the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes for further indications on the potential rate adjustments.
• The US Dollar Index declines to a 7-week low, but can tonight’s Meeting Minutes change the trend? Read below what economists are predicting.
• UK inflation declines from 3.2% to 2.3% in its largest drop since December 2023. The Pound increases as the inflation rate did not decline to 2.1% as previously

GBPUSD – UK Inflation Drops But Does Not Meet Previous Expectations!

The GBPUSD is trading 0.30% higher after the release of April’s UK inflation figures. The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen are the worst performing currencies of the day. Traders looking to speculate a rising Pound may benefit from these weakening currencies. The GBPJPY is trading 0.47% higher so far. However, investors should be cautious of any change in price action as the next session (European Market) opens.

The UK’s inflation figure fell from 3.2% to 2.3% which is the largest drop in 2024 so far and brings the Bank of England closer to its target. This would normally pressure the currency, but there are some factors which have triggered a bullish Pound. This includes the Core Consumer Price Index which fell from 4.2% to 3.9% instead of falling to 3.6% which were the previous expectations. Also, certain sectors did not see a decline in inflation in April, which is a continued concern. For these reasons, investors have increased their exposure to the Pound, supporting the currency. Also, economists are advising that the weakening inflation rate can increase investment demand which also further supports the country’s economy and subsequently the currency.

Furthermore, investors will also need to take into consideration the price condition of the US Dollar individually. Dollar traders will be focusing on tonight’s Federal Open Market Committee’s Meeting Minutes. The market will particularly be looking for clarity on how many adjustments are likely in 2024, if any at all. In addition to this, if an adjustment is likely in July, September or later in the year. If the report indicates less cuts and a delay, the US Dollar potentially can witness further demand and a change in trend. This is something which was particularly seen in April 2024.



The price action of the GBPUSD is forming a bullish trend and most trend-based indicators are signalling a higher price. However, there are signs that the price may correct back to the previous range. For example, on the 4-Hour chart the price is witnessing a divergence signal. in addition to this, the price is also trading at a significant resistance level from November, December and January. Though, for the resistance level to become active, the Dollar will likely require support from the upcoming Meeting Minutes. In the short term, sell signals are likely to materialize after crossing 1.27400 and 1.27268.
 

---

USA100 – Bullish Trend, But Investor Focus On Meeting Minutes & NVIDIA Earnings

The NASDAQ saw a decline in the price as the US Open was approaching, however, the price momentum quickly changed when US investors started trading. The index rose 0.30% by the end of day and was the best performing US index. During the US Session 62.5% of stocks holding a weight of more than 1.00% rose while 37.5% fell. The main price drivers which supported the upward price movement were Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, NVIDIA and Netflix.



Investors will closely be monitoring the upcoming earnings report for NVIDIA, but also the FOMC’s Meeting Minutes. A more restrictive monetary policy can pressure the stock market, but the level of pressure and downward price movement will also depend on the results of NVIDIA’s earnings. Additionally, shareholders will also focus on Intuit’s Quarterly Earnings Report tomorrow evening, but this will have a lesser effect compared to NVIDIA.

A concern for intraday traders is the decline in indices around the world in markets which are currently open. For example, the DAX, FTSE100, CAC and Nikkei225 are all trading lower. In addition to this, the US 10-Year Bond Yields are trading 0.0027% higher which is additional pressure on equities. Nonetheless, technical analysis in the medium to longer term continue to point to a continued upward trend.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 23rd May 2024.

NVIDIA Surpasses Earnings Expectations, Fed Considers Another Rate Hike.

• FOMC Meeting Minutes confirms certain members believe the current monetary policy may not be “adequately restrictive”.
• The US stock market depreciated after the Meeting Minutes. However, investors quickly bought shares after NVIDIA’s Quarterly Earnings Report. The US Stock Market on average rose 0.50% after the Meeting Minutes.
• NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share rose from $5.16 to $6.12 and Revenue rose 15% in the first quarter of 2024.
• Yesterday the US Dollar Index rose up to 0.32% and shot upwards 0.15% in the 30-minutes after the Fed release.

USA100 – NVIDIA’s Earnings Increase Sentiment And The NASDAQ To An All-Time High!

On Wednesday, the NASDAQ spent most of the day witnessing intraday declines which gained momentum after the Fed Minutes. After the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes, the NASDAQ was trading 0.69% lower and the SNP500 0.74% lower. The decline was a result of the ultra-hawkish comments within the Federal Open Market Committee regarding monetary policy and inflation. However, as the price fell to $18,619.54, the price thereafter surged more than 1.50% within the next 8-hours.



The change in trend is a result of the positive Quarterly Earnings Report from NVIDIA. NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share rose from $5.16 to $6.12 and Revenue rose 15% in the first quarter of 2024. Shareholders held onto their shares while buy orders rose triggering a much higher price. In addition to this, NVIDIA’s director’s speech expressed confidence in earnings and the upcoming quarters. NVIDIA’s management also compared their success to the industrial revolution.

As a result, NVIDIA’s stock rose more than 6.00% after market close and is now trading above $1,000. In addition to this, the comments and earnings data had a positive effect on investor sentiment in the broader stock market, but particularly for semiconductors and chipmaking companies. For example, AMD’s stocks rose almost 2.00% and Applied Material Stocks rose 1.75% after NVIDIA’s earnings report.

Due to the volatility the price of the index is obtaining primarily “buy” signals from indications and technical analysis in general. The price has also become “overbought” on the RSI on some timeframes but remains within a buy signal and not overbought on intraday timeframes. Though investors should note that the Fed’s Meeting Minutes does bear risk for the index. This will be expanded on below.
 

---

EURUSD – The US Dollar Rises As Fed Members Play With The Thought Of Another Rate Hike!

The EURUSD is trading within an upward facing corrective swing measuring 0.14%. The bullish price movement is currently only forming a retracement pattern as the EURUSD exchange rate has been trading within a bearish trend for 5 days but gained momentum yesterday due to the US Meeting Minutes.



According to the Meeting Minutes, certain officials believe the policy requires a 25-basis points hike to achieve the 2% target. In addition to this, even the members which are known to be more dovish were troubled by the rise in inflation. Economists continue to believe the Federal Reserve is unlikely to increase rates despite the recent comments. There is a 49% possibility of a rate cut in September according to the CME FedWatch Tool. However, 13.00% of the market believe there will be no cuts at all in 2024.

The hawkish comments regarding higher interest rates are positive for the US Dollar and have triggered various sell signals for the EURUSD. However, investors should also note that a hawkish Fed can also significantly pressure the stock market. Currently, economists are battling amongst each other over whether the higher earnings or the hawkish Fed will be the main price driver. Currently, the higher earnings data is winning, but this may not be the case if inflation does not decline this month.

In terms of the Euro, the latest price driver is the European PMI data for Germany and France. German PMI beat expectations while French data saw a mixed reaction. Investors will now turn their attention to the US data later in this afternoon.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 24th May 2024.

Market News – Erosion in Fed rate cut odds; Stocks, Oil & Gold under pressure
 

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

Nvidia bigger than entire stock market – Market cap now greater than Australia, South Korea and Russia.

• After the massive Nvidia beat, rallying over 9% on the day, failed to reinvigorate the rally at the close. It was unable to support the major indexes.
• Wall street: The profit takers ruined the party, taking advantage of recent record highs to take some chips off the table. Erosion in Fed rate cut expectations provided extra incentive to sell.
• Strong US economic activity: Strong PMI, tight jobless claims, slump in Home sales and high home prices pushed Fed rate cut expectations further back. US jobs data released showed initial applications for unemployment were slightly lower than expected, indicating the economy was holding up despite high rates. The data, Fedspeak and the FOMC minutes, have cast doubt over whether officials will have enough evidence of the disinflation trend to begin cutting rates by September.
• It is an early close in bonds today and that could accelerate activity as traders position ahead of the long Memorial Day weekend.

Asian & European Open:

• Asian equities dropped today, following Wall Street lower.
• Chinese officials announced an Rmb300bn ($42bn) lending package to help buy back real estate from the nation’s indebted property developers.
• Japan: Inflation slowed for the 2nd straight month in April, making it difficult for BOJ to proceed with further tightening. Inflation could pick up due to weaker Yen and rising Oil.
• BOE UK consumer confidence recovered while retail sales slumped. For the BoE that means there is less risk of a wage-price spiral as companies will increasingly struggle to pass on higher labor costs. More arguments in favor of an early rate cut then, despite recent data showing that headline inflation is not coming down as fast as hoped.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex found its footing, extending against G10 for a 5th day.
• Pound dropped after the UK Retail Sales, with GBPUSD at 1.2670.
• Oil declined after hitting its 3-month low as the market flashed signs of weakness ahead of the US summer driving season. Elsewhere, Gold remains weak at $2337, for a 3rd day.

Market Trends:
 

• The Dow lost -1.5% to 39,065 with Boeing down over -7%. Live Nation dove as the DoJ filed suit to divest Ticketmaster. The S&P500 slumped -0.74% to 5267. And the NASDAQ declined -0.39%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 27th May 2024.

The New Zealand Dollar Tops All Currencies, Gold Lags Behind Silver!

• Silver and Gold increase in value during Monday’s Asian Session. Silver rises more than 2.00%, considerably more than Gold. Will Gold gain momentum during the US trading session?
• Citi Group advise the price of Gold can potentially rise to $3,000 in the next 12 months. The institution also advises commodity prices are likely to remain high.
• The New Zealand Dollar is the best performing currency on Monday followed by the Japanese Yen. The Yen loses momentum as the Asian Session comes to an end.
• Of the NASDAQ’s 20 most influential stocks, only 4 ended Friday’s session in the red. The index ended the session 1.10% high and 0.06% higher in today’s Asian Session.

XAUUSD – Gold Lags Behind Silver, But Where Will Buy Signals Materialize?

The price of Gold fell significantly for 3 consecutive days and a total of more than 5.00%. However, investors want to determine how the price is likely to develop throughout the week. On the 2-hour chart the price is trading below the 50.00 on the RSI and below the 75-Bar EMA. Both these indicate a downward price movement. However, the price is trading at a previous support level and the RSI has risen above 40.00. So, at which point are investors likely to see buy or sell signals?

The strongest signals will be able to be seen if the price witnesses a downward price movement as this will also be in line with the 2-hour chart and not provide conflicting signals. If the price trades below $2,341.30, the price will see an ultra-short-term signal for some bearish price action. If the price trades below $2,338.95, a short-term signal will indicate a slightly larger decline. Bullish signals will be active above $2,345.00 or at the breakout at $2,347.50.





According to Citi group, the price of Gold still has the possibility of reaching as high as $3,000, but would require the Federal Reserve to start adjusting their policy. According to Citi Group, five rate hikes over the next 12 months will put Gold priced at $3,000. However, many economists believe the Federal Reserve will only cut on 1-2 occasion in 2024. Fed officials said the share of goods whose prices were growing by 3–5% or higher is now greater than it should be under normal conditions, and the employment sector remains resistant to the measures taken. However, according to Bostic, a transition to reducing borrowing costs is possible but not earlier than October.
 

---

NZDCHF – High Inflation Continues to Support The New Zealand Dollar

The best performing currency of the day is the New Zealand Dollar, while the worst performing is the Swiss Franc. However, due to the larger spread, which is traditional to this pair, investors hold on for larger price movements. On the 2-hour chart the price of the exchange has continuously traded above the 75-Bar EMA since the 13th May and is trading almost 3.50% higher over the past month.

The upward price movement is largely due to the high inflation in New Zealand and the central banks reluctancy to indicate a rate adjustment in the near future. In addition to this, the Swiss National Bank also is believed to be one of the most bearish central bank globally. New Zealand’s inflation rate is continuing to decline and is not witnessing a slowdown like the US. However, the inflation rate remains at 4.00% significantly higher than Switzerland’s 1.4% inflation rate.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 28th May 2024.

Market News – Stocks Mixed, USD Down ahead of crucial inflation data later this week.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 

• ECB officials continue to flag a June cut, but even ECB chief economist Lane, hardly one of the hawks, stressed that policy settings will likely have to remain restrictive for the rest of the year. ECB’s Schnabel wants to reserve QE for moments of crisis. Villeroy says ECB shouldn’t rule out July cut.
• Lagarde will have to perform a difficult balancing act next week, to convince markets that all options remain open for the second half of the year.
• FT reported: Chinese property developers saw their shares rally in recent weeks after Beijing announced a real estate support package, but have subsequently sold off amid concerns the measures will not be enough to help the stricken sector.
• Japan’s service prices rose 2.8% year-on-year, the fastest increase in over 30 years, indicating a broadening inflation trend. This jump, surpassing economists’ 2.3% forecast, supports the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. The BOJ sees service prices as crucial for gauging inflation spread. This data may prompt the BOJ to consider an earlier rate hike, with some forecasts suggesting a possible move by July.

Asian & European Open:

• Chinese equities declined with real estate companies dragging down the country’s benchmark index.
• European & US futures arehigher as the Dollar slipped before a swath of inflation prints that’s expected to influence the direction of global monetary policy.
• All eyes this week are on fresh inflation data from Australia to Japan, the euro region and the US. The ECB is set to release its April CPI expectations later in the day.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex slipped for a 2nd day, retesting 6-month trendline. Currently set at 104.35.
• Gold prices remained steady as the Dollar eased, with investors eyeing key US inflation data for hints on potential Fed rate cuts. Spot gold held at $2,342 per ounce.
• Oil prices steadied after 2 days of gains, i.e. at $78.70, despite rising Middle East tensions following the death of an Egyptian soldier in a clash with Israeli troops. Overall, prices have dipped since early April due to weakening demand from Asia, leading Brent’s prompt spread close to a contango structure, signaling increasing supply relative to consumption.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 29th May 2024.

Market News – Stocks drop with bonds.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 

• The NASDAQ was the star as the markets, of it rallied 0.59% to close at 17,019.88 for a fresh record high. And it is its first time over the 17,000 level. A 7% pop from Nvidia supported.
• Fed Kashkari said he wants to see “many more months” of positive inflation data before a rate cut.
• German GfK consumer confidence improves further. All signs are that consumption trends should improve with the rise in real-disposable income as falling inflation, rising wages and the prospect of rate cuts boost sentiment.
• US consumer confidence beat assumptions. Confidence has displayed only a slight updraft since mid-2022, after a prior deterioration from mid-2021 peaks.

Asian & European Open:

• European & US stocks slipped earlier today against a backdrop of rising government bond yields. DAX fell 0.2% and FTSE lost 0.06%. Traders are pricing in that the ECB will lower its deposit rate when policymakers meet next week.
• Asia stock market dipped as Chinese tech and property companies declined. The Hang Seng Tech index shed 2.3%.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex is steady and Treasury yields also held firm ahead of key inflation data, which could offer more clarity on the Fed rate trajectory.
• The USDJPY fell to 156.88 nearing levels that prompted suspected interventions by Tokyo in late April and early May. Currently rebounded again above 157. Japanese officials might issue verbal warnings again, but without tangible action, the USDJPY could march towards late April levels
• The EURUSD dipped to 1.0830 but still marked its first monthly gain in 2024. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD was last at 1.2760.
• Gold steadied at $2350 per ounce as markets wait for key US PCE numbers at the end of the week. Bullion hit a record high early last week, only to post the sharpest weekly correction this year as the Fed reiterated the “high-for-longer” message.
• Oil broke the $80 barrier as Middle East tensions have picked up again. Markets are now looking ahead to the release of key US inflation data and the OPEC+ meeting on June 2.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 30th May 2024.

 

Market News – Yields jump; Stocks under pressure.

 

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

 

• The FOMC’s high-for-longer stance, along with some increasing fears of a rate hike, continue to weigh on Treasuries. That’s taking a toll on Wall Street too with profit taking from recent record highs knocking stocks down further.
• There was weakness in EGBs after stronger German inflation and wage data.
• US Yields have risen since the market breathed a sigh of relief after cooler CPI and retail sales, and are back near the highs since November.
• Global equities are headed for their worst week since mid-April.
• In New Zealand, the new government delivered on its election promise to cut taxes in its first budget even as the Treasury forecast bigger deficits and a delayed return to surplus.

Asian & European Open:

• Wall Street dropped, led by the Dow’s -1.06% decline. The S&P500 declined -0.74%, with the NASDAQ -0.58% lower. Several earnings reports have been less than stellar as well. Salesforce disappointed today, while HP beat. Meanwhile, retailers are coming into the spotlight and there are fears of weakness.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex has been benefiting from the hawkish outlooks. It has bounced back over 105.
• The USDJPY fell, with the Yen advancing after weakening to beyond 157.50 on Wednesday, falling through a level that had prompted the latest round of suspected action.
• The Rand extended losses as South Africa’s election vote count gathers pace.
• Gold and Oil steadied. USOIL is well below the week’s high however it has been ranging since  yesterday afternoon as traders look to US stockpile data later today and an OPEC+ meeting at the weekend for more clarity on the supply and demand outlook.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

 

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 3rd June 2024.

OPEC+ Announces Gradually Higher Supply and NVIDIA a New Accelerator.
 

 

• Oil declines as the European Cash Open edges closer. Oil prices have fallen for 4 consecutive days measuring almost 4.00%.
• OPEC+ members advise the group will have the option to not continue voluntary cuts from September onwards.
• All US and global indices start Monday’s trading higher after a poor end to May 2024. The bullish price gap illustrates a potential “risk-on” market.
• NVIDIA announces its next generation of accelerator chips and promises annual upgrades. NVIDIA stocks are already trading 0.55% higher in pre-trading hours.

USOil (Crude Oil) – Voluntary Cuts May Gradually Fade!

The price of Crude Oil fell almost 4.00% in the last 3 days of last week due to the OPEC+ meeting. The meeting is now at an end and journalists are pointing out 2 key points. The first, is that the OPEC+ group will keep limitations on production as it has since COVID-19. The second, is that countries which have voluntarily added additional cuts will have the option to reduce these cuts from September onwards.

According to analysts, the market should not necessarily “overreact”, because if OPEC+ increases supply, it will only be gradual. Additionally, analysts also advise the group will only look to re-introduce production if the market conditions allow it to. Nonetheless, traditionally, additional supply is known by analysts to apply downward pressure on commodities. This is something which can also be seen over the past week, but investors will be keen to see the price drop below the support level.
 

The support level has been a key psychological level for investors throughout the month of May, specifically on 3 occasions. The price is currently trading below the 50.00 on the RSI and below most longer-term Moving Averages. If the price declines below the 65.00 Fibonacci level at $76.70 per Barrel, momentum will signal possible further decline.

USA100 – NVIDIA Announces a New Accelerator Chip!

The NASDAQ struggled within the previous week and at one point was down more than 3.00%. However, a large surge of buyers towards the end of Friday’s session saw a strong rebound and the index also trades higher during today’s Asian session. The NASDAQ is currently being influenced by 3 factors. However, investors will also give importance to the pricing of rate adjustments after the US employment data.

The first factor prompting investors to increase tech-stock exposure is NVIDIA. The CEO of the company has again advised the technology and AI market will continue to grow and become more aggressive. In addition to this, Mr Huang advised NVIDIA is releasing a new accelerator chip and promises more within the upcoming year.

A second positive factor for not only the NASDAQ, but global indices, is most analysts believe the European Central Bank will lower interest rates for the first time in the current cycle. If more global banks decide to reduce the restrictiveness of their monetary policy, stocks will become more attractive. However, only if the move is not a response to potential economic contraction.

Lastly investors are also taking advantage of the lower entry point and feel an improved sentiment as Oil prices are declining. Investors hope lower oil prices will apply less upward pressure on inflation.
 

If the price rises above $18,638.83 the price will form a bullish breakout pattern which indicates upward movement. However, for a stronger and longer-term bullish trend, investors will be keen for the price to increase above the 75-Bar EMA and 100-Bar SMA. These two moving averages are currently priced at $18,658.28 and $18,733.30.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 4th June 2024.

The Euro Declines As The ECB’s Rate Decision Approaches!

• The EURUSD retreats from recent highs and gains strong indications from momentum indicators. The Euro also declines against the Japanese Yen.
• Stocks decline in Tuesday’s pre-trading session, but will lower oil prices soon prompt a new surge of buyers?
• The US economy shows signs of slowing, but analysts advise no recession while employment remains strong.
• Chip-makers save the NASDAQ from witnessing a strong decline on Monday. NVIDIA rises 4.90% and Micron Technology 2.54%.

USA100 – NVIDIA Saves the NASDAQ From Another Decline!

The NASDAQ saw prices increasing throughout the day but fell within the first 4 hours of the US session. However, like Friday, investors re-entered the market at the lower price in the second half of the session. As a result, the NASDAQ ended the day 0.47% higher, but this was largely due to good performance from NVIDIA stocks which rose more than 4.90%. According to Wall Street, without NVIDIA, the NASDAQ would most likely have ended lower. NVIDIA is currently the fourth most influential company amongst the NASDAQ’s components.

The latest news which is holding investor attention is the latest Purchasing Managers Index, which is one of the few leading indicators. Other economic data are known as laggings as they are based on past data rather than sentiment and future outlook. The ISM Manufacturing PMI and Manufacturing Prices both read lower than expectations and lower than the previous month. However, investors should not necessarily “overreact” as analysts advise this would not mean anything unless employment also contracts. Additionally, the Final Manufacturing PMI read 51.3 which still indicates economic expansion, and the lower oil prices can support stocks in the longer term.

A slight decline is not necessarily negative for the stock market as long as there is not a higher risk of a recession. The lower consumer demand and economic activity could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider more than 1 rate cut in 2024. 53.0% of large traders are betting on this, up from 49.0% before the publication of the statistics. Additionally, most experts predict that the regulators will cut the interest rate twice over the course of the year, totalling 0.50%.



Nonetheless, technical analysis indicates there is still the possibility of the price declining. The price was unable to remain above the main sentiment lines and did not form a higher high. At the moment, the RSI is currently priced at 50.30 which indicates the price may witness a reverting price condition.

If the price rises to a new high breaking above $18,638.50, the momentum could indicate upward price movement again. Otherwise, bearish crossovers on the 5-minute chart will continue to indicate valid downward momentum. Currently, European stocks are declining and if they keep falling, investors can use this as an indication of a risk-off sentiment.

EURUSD – The Euro Gives Up Gains As The ECB’s Rate Decision Approaches

The price of the EURUSD continues to form higher highs and higher lows but is currently trading within a downward price movement. If the price declines below 1.08576, the bullish trend pattern will be broken. Investors are currently contemplating the timing of the European Central Bank’s first interest rate cut.



The EU Manufacturing PMI rose from 45.7 points to 47.3 points, and the German PMI from 42.5 points to 45.4 points, justifying preliminary estimates. Experts believe that the European economy is gradually recovering but sustainable growth has not yet been achieved. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will make a decision on its policy: according to forecasts, regulator officials will reduce the interest rate from 4.50% to 4.25%, the deposit rate from 4.00% to 3.75%, and the marginal rate from 4.75% to 4.50%.



The EURUSD is seeing indications of upward price movement on the 2-hour timeframe, but so far is declining against most currencies. In addition to this, the price is witnessing strong bearish momentum and bearish indication on the 5-minute chart. Therefore, the current signals point towards a short-term bias. However, if the momentum continues investors may revisit this outlook and consider a full correction.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 5th June 2024.

US Job Vacancies Fall to Their Lowest Level In 3 Years.
 

 

• US Job Vacancies fell to their lowest level in more than 3 years adding to fears of economic contraction.
• This week US PMI data falls and there are now lower job vacancies. Has the US economy passed its peak and is now in a downfall?
• Analysts advise if bond yields drop below 4.300%, yields can fall as low as 4.00% in the near term.
• Stocks rise to a weekly high as investors predict earlier rate hikes. A pause in September has fallen to a 35.00% possibility (5.00% lower) according to the Chicago Exchange.

USA500 – US Job Vacancies Fall to Their Lowest Level In 3 Years!

The SNP500 on Tuesday struggled due to poor investor sentiment and fear of economic slowdown. However, the price rose due to the latest US JOLTS Job Openings which shows less job vacancies within the US economy. This is due to investors changing their view on future interest rate cuts. Investors are evaluating whether the poorer economic data will tempt the Federal Reserve to lower rates, which supports the economy and makes stocks more attractive.

However, analysts advise a strong stock market needs a balance between the economy and monetary policy. If investors fear a recession, shareholders may opt to lower exposure to the stock market regardless of lower interest rates. In order to monitor investor sentiment, the market will continue to monitor the VIX which has risen over the past week. In addition to this, investors will also monitor if the High Low Index falls from recent highs.

The JOLTS Job Openings has fallen from 8.49 million to 8.06 million and is 700,000 lower than the 6-month average. Investors will now give more importance to today’s ADP Employment Change and tomorrow’s Weekly Unemployment Claims. If both also significantly fall, stocks can gain upward momentum due to potentially lower rates or can collapse on recession fears. This will also depend on today’s ISM Services PMI. Analysts advise investors will ideally want to see lower employment data and a positive PMI or visa versa. We can see here there is a thin line between lower rates and a harsh landing.

Over the past week bond yields have significantly fallen which is positive for the stock market. However, the 10-Year Treasuries are 0.013% lower now. If bond yields fall below 4.300%, the yields can fall as low as 4.000% which is known to be positive for stocks in general. Oil prices have fallen almost 9% in 5-days which could also improve sentiment and weaken inflation over the next 2-months.

European stocks open higher as we approach the European Cash Open. However, investors will monitor the price movement after the US news releases. The SNP500’s price is currently trading above the main sentiment lines and Moving Averages which is a positive indication. Now the price is slightly lower but if it rises above $5,306.83 without forming a lower low beforehand, buy signals will become stronger.
 

USDJPY – The Japanese Yen Witnesses The Largest Currency Decline!

The day’s worst performing currency is the Japanese Yen while the best performing is the US Dollar. Even though the US Dollar is being pressured by a higher chance of lower rates, the Fed’s policy is still more competitive than most Central Banks. In addition to this, the Dollar’s safe haven element may also play a part. The exchange rate is witnessing buy signals on most indicators, but technical analysts are cautious after already seeing a 0.72% climb this morning.
 

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino stated today that officials should closely monitor yen movements due to their potential significant impact on the national economy. Consequently, currency weakness will be a crucial factor in deciding the timing and extent of the next increase in borrowing costs. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also emphasized that the regulator’s primary objective is to allow the market to set long-term interest rates while retaining the capability to scale back large-scale bond purchases in the short term.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 6th June 2024.

Ideal Economic Conditions Push The NASDAQ To New Highs!

• Economists expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates this afternoon. However, investors will be keen to hear how many cuts are likely in 2024 after strong wage growth.
• The NASDAQ climbs to a new all-time high while economic data indicates an earlier rate adjustment but not a recession.
• The NASDAQ rises more than 2.00% on Wednesday. 88% of the most influential components within the NASDAQ rose.
• The US employment sector continues to witness signs of a slowdown, but investor sentiment rises while the ISM Services PMI rises to a 9-month high.

USA100 – 88% of NASDAQ’s Components Rise!

The NASDAQ rose again to an all-time-high after obtaining the ideal economic data to signal a sooner rate adjustment but not a harsh landing. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change fell to 152,000 and the JOLTS Job Openings to 8,060,000. The data indicates the US employment sector is now at a higher risk of declining, but not yet necessarily on the downturn. Simultaneously the ISM Services PMI rose to a 9-month high which points to potential economic growth in the services sector.



As mentioned during yesterday’s market analysis, in order for the stock market to witness a stronger bullish impulse wave, investors will be looking for two elements. Economic data to pressure the Fed to adjust interest rates, but also some positive data to lower the risk of a recession. This was the primary reason for the strong trend observed during yesterday’s US session, marking one of the rare occasions when the asset increased without any pullbacks.

The 11 stocks with the highest “weight” all rose in value and only 12% of the most influential stocks declined. The best performing stocks were Broadcom (+6.18%), Applied Material (+5.25%) and NVIDIA (+5.16%). The only stocks which did not witness an increase were PepsiCo which fell 0.23% and Cisco Systems which fell 2.95%.

The NASDAQ is obtaining clear indications of upward price movement on all indicators (2-Hour & 4-Hour Chart). However, the price is trading slightly lower this morning which may prompt short term traders to hold off buy signals. In order to obtain a further buy signal, technical analysts point to 3 potential entry points. Based on the 100-Bar SMA the 5-Minute chart indicates a buy signal above $19,077.09, Fibonacci indicates a buy signal at $19,082.50 and the breakout level is at $19,095.00.

EURCHF – Investors Focus On The ECB’s Rate Decisions!

The day’s best performing currencies during this morning’s Asian session are the Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and the Australian Dollar. Therefore, if investors wish to speculate downward price movement due to rate cuts, these pairs potentially can be beneficial. From these exchanges the lowest spread is the EURAUD. During this morning the EURCHF is trading 0.09% lower and is forming a symmetrical triangle. Therefore, there is not yet a clear indication of buy or sell indications.





However, volatility is likely to rise after the European Cash Open and after the European Central Bank’s rate decision. Most economists believe the European Central Bank will cut interest rates 0.25%, and according to Bloomberg, this has almost been fully priced within the market. However, economists advise a key factor will be how many rate cuts are likely. Over the past two weeks, the Eurozone witnessed higher wage growth, economic growth and sticky inflation. Therefore, the main question will be how many interest rate cuts will come in the rest of 2024.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 7th June 2024.

ECB closer look: All options open for the second half of the year!


ECB officials continue to dampen rate cut speculation, following on from Lagarde’s hawkish comments yesterday. Officials have been out in force this morning to continue stressing that the inflation outlook remains uncertain and that the central bank is not committing to a particular rate path for the rest of the year.

The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points, but as we expected it was a “hawkish” cut that left all options open for the second half of the year. Lagarde repeatedly stressed that future decisions will be data dependent, and even refused to confirm that yesterday’s move was the first step of an easing cycle. Rate cuts in September and December are still a possibility, but not cast in stone.

Simkus admitted that there may be more than one rate cut this year, but on the whole, the comments were designed to keep a lid on speculation that the central bank kicked off a rate cut cycle yesterday. Austria’s central bank head Holzmann went on record yesterday to confirm that he was the sole dissenter objecting to a cut yesterday, and so far the doves have been quiet, which is helping to affirm Lagarde’s hawkish message yesterday.
 

Details of the Rate Cut

The ECB delivered the first rate cut in five years and lowered key rates by 25 basis points. The deposit rate is now at 3.75% and the main refinancing rate at 4.25%. It was a “hawkish cut,” as near term inflation forecasts were revised higher, and Lagarde flagged that domestic inflation remains high. The statement stressed that the ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path, and the comments leave all options on the table for the second half of the year.
 

Economic Activity and Forecasts 

The ECB noted the improvement in economic activity through the first quarter of the year. Lagarde also highlighted that manufacturing is showing signs of stabilization, with stronger exports expected to support growth in coming quarters. At the same time, monetary policy should be less of a drag on demand over time, according to the ECB. The new set of forecasts show GDP rising 0.9% this year, which is more than the 0.6% expected back in March. The forecast for 2025 has been revised slightly down to 1.4% from 1.5% previously, and the ECB still expects a slight acceleration to 1.6% for 2026.

The inflation forecast for this year was raised to 2.5% from 2.3%, and the projection for 2025 was hiked to 2.2% from 2.0%. As such, inflation will fall toward the target later than previously anticipated, though the forecast for 2026 was left unchanged at 1.9%. This means the headline rate is still expected to fall below the target at the end of the forecast horizon.
 

Upside Risks to Inflation

The statement noted upside risks to the inflation outlook from wages and profits, which could be higher than currently anticipated. Geopolitical tensions and extreme weather events could also push up prices once again, according to the ECB. At the same time, the ECB acknowledged that inflation could come in lower than anticipated if monetary restrictions have more of a dampening effect than currently anticipated, or if global growth weakens more than projected.
 

The press conference was mainly dedicated to driving home the point that future decisions will depend on data available at the time of the respective meeting. Lagarde even refused to confirm that the central bank has effectively kicked off an easing cycle, and said in response to a question that she wouldn’t necessarily say that the ECB started a “dialing-back process”. She suggested it is likely, but refused to confirm it, which in theory means rates could actually go up again.

This seems unlikely, given that this move was a near unanimous decision, but its makes clear that the ECB will not cut rates at every meeting and that the outlook for the rest of the year is still very much open. The ECB still thinks that monetary policy needs to remain restrictive for the foreseeable future against the backdrop of high domestic inflation. However, as chief economist Lane suggested recently, officials will have to debate at every meeting whether the data allows the central bank to dial back the degree of restrictiveness.
 

Employment and Inflation Dynamics

Wage growth, profits, and services price inflation will remain the key numbers to watch through the rest of the year. Lagarde pointed to data on the compensation of employees, due to be released tomorrow, but also flagged that current wage agreements are often still backward looking, as they reflect attempts to compensate for the sharp rise in prices since the start of the Ukraine war. As we flagged previously, the multi-year wage agreements in Germany are a prime example of that. However, as Lagarde highlighted, the deals on the table so far show sharp increases for this year, but also imply a slowdown in wage growth in coming years.

However, unemployment is at a record low and the number of vacancies has dropped only slightly. At the same time, service price inflation remains stubbornly high, which suggests that companies have sufficient room to pass on higher labor costs. With real disposable income rising, thanks to lower inflation and higher wages, companies could find it even easier to hike prices in the second half of the year, and yesterday’s rate cut is also likely to boost demand. In the current situation, this could add to domestic price pressures.

Looking ahead, the only thing that is clear is that Lagarde did her best to keep expectations of back-to-back cuts under control. The chances still are that the ECB will deliver two more 25 basis point cuts in September and December, but at this point, nothing is cast in stone.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 11th June 2024.

Market News – Inflation reports dominates!


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 

• The selloff in Treasuries continued ahead of the FOMC decision tomorrow, though losses were moderate. Disappointment that the continued strength in the labor market will push back any easing until at least September at the earliest continued to weigh.
• Chinese stocks dropped after traders returned from a long weekend, weighed down by weak travel spending and renewed concerns over the property sector, raising doubts about the sustainability of China’s economic recovery.
• Developer Dexin China Holdings gets liquidation order from a Hong Kong court adding to a growing number of legal victories for creditors involving overdue debt.
• Geopolitical risks also affected shares of electric vehicle makers as traders awaited the European Commission’s decision on provisional duties expected this week.
• Australian business confidence turned negative in May, and conditions slipped to below-average levels, indicating that elevated interest rates and a worsening consumer outlook are weighing on the corporate sector.
• Markets are also closely monitoring potential fallout from political upheavals in Europe.

Asian & European Open:

• All three major indexes closed higher on Monday, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq both hitting new records. The Dow ended the day up about 0.2%, following a modest finish to a winning week.
• The CSI 300 Index of mainland shares fell up to 1.4% after reopening from the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, while Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares were among Asia’s biggest decliners, dropping as much as 2%.
• Apple Inc. sank despite unveiling new artificial intelligence features. The company’s suppliers also dropped after Apple’s latest AI platform was seen as disappointing.
• Billionaire Elon Musk stated he would ban Apple devices from his companies if OpenAI’s software is integrated at the operating system level, calling it a security risk.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex has caught a bid with the push back to rate cut expectations. It closed at 105.150, back with a 105 handle for the first time since May 14.
• The EURUSD stalled at 1.0770, while GBPUSD declined slightly today after the tight labor data.
• USOIL held the biggest jump since March ahead of an OPEC report that will provide a snapshot on the market outlook.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 12th June 2024.

Market News – Steady ahead of the Big Day!



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 

• Asian stocks edged up, driven by the technology sector, while the US Dollar remained firm ahead of the US inflation report and Fed policy decision.
• China’s CPI gains held above zero in May while factory-gate prices remained stuck in deflation, signalling ongoing weak demand.
• UK GDP stagnated in April. Monthly GDP numbers came in a tad better than anticipated, with activity stagnating, rather than contracting -0.1% m/m, as Bloomberg consensus forecasts had predicted. The recovery remains uneven though.
• The FOMC began day 1 of its 2-day meeting with the decision and the new quarterly forecasts (SEP) at 21:00 GMT following by Chair Powell’s press conference at 21:30 GMT. The Fed is universally expected to maintain a steady rate stance, leaving all of the focus on the new forecasts, Chair Powell’s press conference, and the policy statement. It is widely expected that the “dovish” dot plot from March that showed three cuts (though it was a close call for two) will be revised toward a more hawkish stance.

Asian & European Open:

• Treasuries steadied after rising on a solid $39 billion sale, which reflected speculation that inflation reading will help make the case for the Fed to cut rates this year.
• The NASDAQ rebounded and advanced 0.88% into the close to another record at 17,343. Similarly the S&P500 rose 0.27% to 5375, also a new record (27th of the year).
• A surge in Apple shares (7%) supported. The Dow slumped -0.3%, hurt by financials and industrials that overshadowed a gain in IT.
• China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group plunged 20% after warning of losing assets.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex had a good first half, rising to a high of 105.46 before fading to 105.24. However, it’s above the 105 level for a second straight session (first time since May 13,14) and the highest since early May.
• The EURUSD was down for a fourth session at 1.0737 amid political turmoil in Europe.
• OIL prices extended gains for a third session, with UKOIL futures up 0.5% to $82.36 a barrel and USOIL up 0.7% to $78.45 a barrel. Industry data pointed to shrinking US crude stockpiles ahead of a report from the IEA on the market outlook.
• Gold prices edged 0.1% lower to $2,313.72 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 24th June 2024.

How Is Politics Trigger a New Wave of Volatility For The Week Ahead?
 

 

• Apple confirm they will delay the release of certain features within the EU due to regulations.
• Apple stocks fell 3.00% within the past week applying pressure on the NASDAQ.
• The US Dollar was last week’s best performing currency increasing in value by 0.47%.
• Investors turn to haven assets due to political uncertainty. French elections will take place over the weekend and the first US presidential debate on Thursday.

USDJPY – Dollar Strength Pushes The Exchange Close To All-Time Highs!

The US Dollar has been increasing in value against the Japanese Yen for 7 consecutive days. The US Dollar was the best performing currency of the week, while the Japanese Yen was the worst performing. The Japanese Yen Index fell 1.36% during the previous week and a further 0.13% this morning. The currency pair is witnessing strong buy signals from most indicators but is under psychological pressure as investors fear another Japanese Government currency intervention.

However, even with an intervention, fundamental elements continue to point towards potential Dollar strength. Over the past week investors have turned to the Dollar as a “safe haven” ahead of some political uncertainty. The US will hold their first presidential debate which will grab investors attention. The debate on June 27th, will be the first in-person debate between the two main candidates. In addition to this, the French elections will take place over next weekend and is likely to create volatility across the board, particularly if the outcome is a change in leadership.
 

In addition to the risk factor, the US Dollar also continues to be supported by economic data. While France, Germany and the UK all failed to beat PMI expectations, the US overachieved. The US Services and Manufacturing PMI beat expectations and also rose from the previous month. The Services PMI rose from 54.8 to 55.1 and Manufacturing from 51.3 to 51.7. The only concern for investors is a possible US interest rate adjustment in September 2024 which according to the CME Group is only 59% priced into the market.

Technical analysis, particularly price action is signalling a renewed long signal if the price rises above 159.80. On a 2-hour chart, the price is of the exchange is trading above the 75-bar SMA and 100-bar EMA signalling buyer strength.
 

---

USA100 – Apple Warn The EU, But What Will Be The Outcome For the NASDAQ?

The NASDAQ is trading at the 100-Period EMA for the first time since June 5th as the asset retraces downward. What is pressuring the NASDAQ?
 

The first catching investors attention is Apple stocks which are the second most influential stock for the index. Apple is warning the EU they will either not release or delay the release of new Apple features within the EU. According to the company, these new features are mainly related to AI which will be released to other regions later in the year.

The DMA is the bloc’s key digital rule book, designed to help local start-ups compete with US-based Big Tech. It requires large digital platforms to share data legally and prohibits them from prioritizing their own services over competitors’. The news is triggering a lack of demand and orders which is causing downward impulse waves.

Another concern for investors is the rise in the US Dollar, the VIX trading 0.70% higher and the lower risk appetite. However, investors will also be keen to see if investors take advantage of the lower price. Analysts continue to believe the longer-term outcome will be a bullish trend as long as market conditions remain strong. A positive aspect for the NASDAQ is that, despite the recent price decline, the High Low Index has rebounded above 60.00%. If the price rises above $19,798.74, a rebound becomes potentially more likely.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 25th June 2024.

Kenya in Turmoil: Youth-Led Protests Shake Economy as Shilling Falls
 

 

Impact on the Kenyan Shilling (KES)

Earlier today, lawmakers in Kenya passed the bill increasing taxes, which now awaits President William Ruto’s assent. The planned tax increases aim to generate an additional $2.3 billion in revenue in the upcoming fiscal year. Ruto intends to reduce the budget deficit from 5.7% of GDP in the current financial year to 3.3% of GDP in the next, as part of efforts to improve Kenya’s fiscal position and comply with an IMF program that requires Nairobi to increase revenue.

The recent youth-led protests against the Kenyan government’s proposed tax increases have had a notable impact on the Kenyan shilling (KES), which has depreciated against the US Dollar. The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) previously reported that the shilling had appreciated against the Dollar more than almost any other currency in 2024. However, following the news of police and protester violence, the shilling slipped from trading at approximately $0.0077 to the Dollar.
 

 

Background on the Finance Bill

A finance bill is typically presented to parliament before the start of the financial year, which runs from July to June, outlining the government’s fiscal plans. In the 2024/25 bill, the Kenyan government aims to raise $2.7 billion in additional taxes to reduce the budget deficit and state borrowing. Kenya’s public debt currently stands at 68% of GDP, surpassing the 55% of GDP recommended by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

Facing severe liquidity challenges and uncertainty about its ability to access capital from financial markets, Kenya has turned to the IMF, which has urged the government to meet revenue targets to secure further funding.

Protesters are demanding the government abandon the planned tax hikes, arguing that they will stifle the economy and increase the cost of living for Kenyans already struggling financially. This resistance is not unprecedented; last year, the government of President William Ruto, elected in 2022 on a promise to improve the lives of the poor, introduced a housing tax and raised the top personal income tax rate through the finance bill, triggering anger, street protests, and legal challenges.

Proposed Tax Measures

---

The proposed tax measures causing unrest include new levies on basic commodities such as bread, vegetable oil, and sugar, and a new motor vehicle circulation tax of 2.5% of a car’s value to be paid annually. An “eco levy” on most manufactured goods, including sanitary towels and diapers, is also proposed. Additionally, the bill seeks to increase existing taxes on financial transactions. The government argues that these tax measures are necessary to fund development programs and reduce public debt.

The government had earlier withdrawn several of the most controversial measures, such as a tax on bread and cooking oil, but this did not assuage people’s anger. The finance ministry has stated that these concessions would create a 200 billion Kenyan shilling ($1.56 billion) shortfall in the 2024/25 budget, necessitating spending cuts. Despite these concessions, protesters and opposition parties argue they are insufficient and call for the entire bill to be abandoned.

The Protests

---

President Ruto has acknowledged the youth-led protests and pledged to engage in dialogue to address their concerns, though the timing of such discussions remains unclear. It is also uncertain whether the protests will intensify if parliament passes the bill. The social media-driven protests lack clear leadership, but many young people have vowed to continue demonstrating. Some protesters cite the arrest of at least two activists since Ruto’s offer of talks as evidence of the government’s lack of goodwill.

The government claims that the withdrawal of some tax proposals demonstrates its willingness to compromise. Nevertheless, police have attempted to disperse predominantly young protesters chanting “Ruto must go!” amidst growing anger over the government’s plan to raise more than $2 billion in new taxes to address the country’s substantial budget deficit.

The demonstrations began a week ago in Nairobi and have since spread to other cities in the country of 54 million people. They are led mostly by young Kenyans, many of whom organized via social media and livestreamed demonstrations on TikTok, Instagram, and other platforms. The protesters are demanding that the government of Kenyan President William Ruto withdraw the bill that would introduce major tax increases, arguing that the measures are hurting ordinary Kenyans already grappling with rising prices for everyday essentials.

The human rights commission has reported that security forces have “abducted” prominent critics of the tax proposals, seizing many from their homes under cover of darkness. Treasury Secretary Njuguna Ndung’u has warned that failing to implement the tax increases could create a $1.5 billion hole in the budget. The government has indicated it would be forced to cut spending, including slashing support for a school food program and the loss-making flag carrier Kenya Airways if the bill fails.

Following initial protests last Tuesday, when the bill was tabled in parliament for debate, the government promised to withdraw planned taxes on bread, cooking oil, locally made diapers, and other products. However, by Thursday, the protests had spread to almost half of Kenya’s 47 counties. Protesters are calling for a “total shutdown” of the country and demanding that Ruto completely drop the finance bill.

Interest payments on Kenya’s debt consume nearly 38% of revenues, according to the World Bank. In January, the IMF provided Kenya with an additional $941 million loan as part of a $3.9 billion bailout that began in 2021.

Multilateral lenders are willing to continue extending credit to Kenya, provided it maintains fiscal consolidation and increases revenue collection.

What comes next?

With the bill now approved, the president has the option to either enact it within 14 days or return it to parliament with suggested amendments. The government might also consider alternative strategies to alleviate tensions, such as postponing the bill, though this is improbable.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 26th June 2024.

Market News – European Stocks Follow US Gains, Inflation Pressures Rise in Australia.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 

• Australia’s CPI surged to 4% in May, up from 3.6% in April, complicating the central bank’s plans for rate cuts. This increase was mainly driven by higher housing and transport costs.
• European stocks followed the upward trend after a volatile Asian session and a rally in US session overnight, with markets awaiting new trading catalysts.
• China’s central bank once again loosened its grip on the Yuan as the currency traded near the lower end of its fixed daily trading band. A Bloomberg survey indicated that China’s export outlook is set to improve, supporting growth in the world’s second-largest economy despite slowing consumer spending.
• Treasuries lost ground with yields ending a few basis points higher as hawkish comments from the Fed’s Bowman combined with risk-on flows into the NASDAQ and a slightly better than expected confidence report weighed on bonds.
• Investors are likely to continue investing in US stocks at any sign of a pullback as the Fed moves closer to reducing interest rates, according to Societe Generale SA, which expects the easing cycle to begin early next year.

Asian & European Open:

• Asia stock indices rose, while Australian stocks declined. US stock futures edged higher in Asia, bolstered by a rebound in Nvidia shares.
• The bounce in Nvidia after its 3-day rout helped lift tech and in turn the NASDAQ and the S&P500. Nvidia climbed 6.8%,following a $430 billion sell-off. The NASDAQ ended with a 1.26% gain, while the S&P 500 was 0.39% in the green. The Dow dropped -0.76% with a -2.67% plunge in materials leading a broadbased decline.
• Rivian Automotive Inc. surged as Volkswagen AG announced a $5 billion investment to form a joint venture with the electric-vehicle maker.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex firmed but off its 105.78 peak.
• USDJPY held just below the critical 160 per Dollar level, raising concerns about possible market intervention.
• The AUD strengthened to 0.6688 due to faster-than-expected inflation data.
• USOIL held a decline following an industry report indicating a small increase in US crude inventories ahead of official government data.
• Copper fell to its lowest level in over 2 months due to sustained pressure from weak Chinese demand. Gold remained largely unchanged.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 26th June 2024.

Market News – European Stocks Follow US Gains, Inflation Pressures Rise in Australia.
 

Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
 

• Australia’s CPI surged to 4% in May, up from 3.6% in April, complicating the central bank’s plans for rate cuts. This increase was mainly driven by higher housing and transport costs.
• European stocks followed the upward trend after a volatile Asian session and a rally in US session overnight, with markets awaiting new trading catalysts.
• China’s central bank once again loosened its grip on the Yuan as the currency traded near the lower end of its fixed daily trading band. A Bloomberg survey indicated that China’s export outlook is set to improve, supporting growth in the world’s second-largest economy despite slowing consumer spending.
• Treasuries lost ground with yields ending a few basis points higher as hawkish comments from the Fed’s Bowman combined with risk-on flows into the NASDAQ and a slightly better than expected confidence report weighed on bonds.
• Investors are likely to continue investing in US stocks at any sign of a pullback as the Fed moves closer to reducing interest rates, according to Societe Generale SA, which expects the easing cycle to begin early next year.

Asian & European Open:

• Asia stock indices rose, while Australian stocks declined. US stock futures edged higher in Asia, bolstered by a rebound in Nvidia shares.
• The bounce in Nvidia after its 3-day rout helped lift tech and in turn the NASDAQ and the S&P500. Nvidia climbed 6.8%,following a $430 billion sell-off. The NASDAQ ended with a 1.26% gain, while the S&P 500 was 0.39% in the green. The Dow dropped -0.76% with a -2.67% plunge in materials leading a broadbased decline.
• Rivian Automotive Inc. surged as Volkswagen AG announced a $5 billion investment to form a joint venture with the electric-vehicle maker.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex firmed but off its 105.78 peak.
• USDJPY held just below the critical 160 per Dollar level, raising concerns about possible market intervention.
• The AUD strengthened to 0.6688 due to faster-than-expected inflation data.
• USOIL held a decline following an industry report indicating a small increase in US crude inventories ahead of official government data.
• Copper fell to its lowest level in over 2 months due to sustained pressure from weak Chinese demand. Gold remained largely unchanged.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 27th June 2024.

Market News – Asian Declines, Tech Sector Losses and Anticipation for PCE.
 

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

Several events are on the calendar which are keeping a cautious tone in the markets:

• Although tonight’s presidential debate is much anticipated, it’s unlikely to impact the markets as it won’t provide any real clues on fiscal or monetary policy.
• Asian shares decline, with US futures amid ongoing losses in the tech sector. Friday’s PCE chain price report has Treasury bulls sidelined for now and the run up in yields is tempering activity on Wall Street. Though expectations are for a benign report, upside surprises in Australia and Canadian CPI are generating some concerns.
• Chinese stocks are headed for a technical correction. The earlier rally that pushed Chinese equities into bull markets this year has been losing momentum due to ongoing concerns about an uneven economic recovery. Investors are now focusing on the Third Plenum, the July meeting historically known for significant economic policy announcements by the Communist Party.

Asian & European Open:

• Wall Street rallied with all three major indexes finishing in the green. A bounce in tech boosted the NASDAQ 0.49%, back to 17,805. The S&P500 was up 0.16% and the Dow edged up 0.04%.
• Micron Technology Inc.’s sales outlook fell short of the highest forecasts, denting giant tech companies in late Wall Street trading.
• Asian equities declined on Thursday, with Hong Kong experiencing the largest losses as Chinese tech companies and property developers listed in the city fell. Significant contributors to the drop included electric vehicle maker BYD, travel agency Trip.com, and Tencent.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex was a big winner, climbing to a session peak of 106.130 before closing at 106.079, the highest since late April.
• A surge in USDJPY to 160.79, the highest since 1986, supported. Today the Yen recovered by 0.3% against the Dollar, to 160.29.
• Gold and USOIL prices declined, in part on the firmer Dollar. Bullion fell -0.49% to $2298 per ounce and USOIL slipped -0.2% to $80.36 per barrel.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 1st July 2024.

French Elections Spark Risk Rally as Far-Right Falls Short!

• Projections show France’s Far Right Party will lead the first round of parliamentary elections.
• The Euro is the day’s best performing currency, increasing in value by more than 0.40%.
• European Indices soar! The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 1.85% and the DAX 1.00%.
• Investors turn their attention to today’s German Inflation data. Analysts expect the German Consumer Price Index to rise 0.2%.

FRA40 (CAC 40) – French Elections Trigger Volatility And “Bottom Fishing”!

By the market close on Friday, the French CAC was almost at its lowest level for 2024. Since Sunday’s elections, all European indices have risen and the French CAC trades 2.65%. Investors have bought the dip triggering a large price gap and a significantly higher price. Nonetheless, the price remains 7.00% lower than the index’s all-time high. The price is being influenced by three major factors; the upcoming earnings data, higher appetite towards stocks and of course the French elections.



Following an exceptionally high voter turnout, the National Rally is leading with 34% of the vote. The left-wing New Popular Front is in second place with 28%, and President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble Alliance has dropped to a disappointing third place with 20%, according to initial estimates. Although the National Rally seems poised to secure the most seats, France could be facing a hung parliament and increased political uncertainty. Even so, technical analysis signals a possible correction upwards, and the market is showing a clear “risk-on” sentiment. The higher risk appetite is due to the far right failing to win a majority. Bottom fishing refer to investors buying the bottom!

The risk-on sentiment can be seen across the global stock market. All European and US indices are increasing on Monday. The Euro Stoxx 50 has risen 1.85%, the DAX 1.00%, the SNP500 0.35% and the NASDAQ 0.40%. Some Asian stocks also continue to rise. Lastly, the VIX index trades 1.59% lower which also indicates a higher risk appetite.

In terms of technical analysis, the CAC40 is attempting to establish itself above the 75-Bar EMA and above the 50.00 on the RSI. On smaller timeframes, the momentum is also forming bullish crossovers further indicating an increase. The only concern for investors is the resistance level at 7,729.48, which pressured the index last week. If the price forms a breakout above this level, the index will likely see buy signals strengthen. If the price retraces to 7,614.55, traders have the opportunity to trade the upcoming breakout. However, if the price falls below this level, the buy signal will no longer be valid for the time being.
 

---

EURUSD – Investors Turn Their Attention To The German Inflation Reading!

The EURUSD continues to trade higher with strong momentum and has broken through the most recent resistance levels. The Euro is the day’s best performing currency with the index trading 0.40% higher, while the US Dollar is the worst performing. The US Dollar Index is trading 0.35% lower today so far.

However, investors should be cautious about the price action seen so far as volatility can quickly change after today’s German inflation data. Analysts expect the German Consumer Price Index to read 0.2%, slightly higher than the previous month. If the inflation reading is lower, the Euro potentially can come under selling pressure. In June, the number of unemployed in Germany rose by 19,000, surpassing the forecast of 14,000, with the unemployment rate reaching 6.0% instead of the expected 5.9%. Experts highlight the weakness of the German labor market, noting that companies remain cautious about hiring new employees, which negatively impacts the country’s economy. However, today’s inflation data will be the main driver along with the French elections and a potential hung parliament.



Technical analysis points towards buyers controlling the market and the exchange rate yet to obtain an “overbought” price. Currently, the RSI trades at 73.00 which means the price can rise a further 0.20% becoming overbought. However, this would depend on momentum.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 2nd July 2024.

A Hawkish ECB Advise No Cut for July! European Stocks Fall!

• European stocks unable to hold onto gains and honour the recent resistance levels.
• German inflation declines back to 2.2% as inflation in June eases more than expectations.
• ECB President Lagarde indicates the central bank may keep interest rates unchanged this month to gather more inflation data.
• Oil prices at a 2-month high due to a rise in geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Caribbean Hurricane.

GER40 – A Hawkish ECB Pressures European Stocks!

The German DAX fell during the European session due to the strong price gap which measures 1.04%. As a result, the index still rose by 0.48% by the end of the US trading session. The index is being supported by two factors: The failure of France’s far-right party to win a majority, which increased risk sentiment, and German inflation which read lower than expectations.



However, the DAX is also slightly under pressure from the ECB President’s comments. Mrs Lagarde said the central bank will pause and not lower rates for the time being. The ECB is looking to obtain 2 months of inflation data before determining whether the risk of inflation is subsiding. If not, further adjustments. This morning, Pierre Wunsch, a member of the ECB governing council, said the economy is underperforming but the ECB believe it will recover. Philip Lane advises the ECB believes the Eurozone’s inflation will remain at the “mid-twos”. A concern for inflation is the current rise in oil prices which currently is close to a 2-month high and continues to rise in today’s Asian session.

The data supports a further cut in rates, but comments from the ECB don’t correspond with the latest inflation reading. The hawkish comment from the ECB is known to have pressured the DAX, but technical analysis will be key as bullish price movement is still possible. Particularly as German inflation falls back to 2.2%. A key price driver for the day will be the Core CPI Flash Estimates at 09:00 GMT and President Lagarde’s speech at 13:30 GMT.

In terms of technical analysis and signals, the DAX opened on a bearish price gap and has declined a further 0.20%. However, price gaps are normally filled and can trade back into a correction. In addition to this, the price on the 2-hour chart continues to remain above the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. If the price declines below 18,267.31, sell trades can materialize, otherwise, the main signal on the 2-hour chart, remains a bullish trend with large retracements.

EURNZD – The NZD Continues To Be The Worst-Performing Currency!

The best performing currency continues to be the Euro as it was on Monday. The Asian session’s worst performing currency is the New Zealand Dollar. On the 2-hour chart, the exchange rate is witnessing strong signals indicating a bullish trend, as seen since June 24th. However, the price on smaller timeframes indicates the asset is about to form a retracement. Therefore, investors should note the volatility despite the clear bullish signals.



At this point, traders can’t use the breakout level or Fibonacci entry points due to the head and shoulders pattern and the significantly higher price. The asset has risen in value for 5 consecutive days regardless of the latest German inflation reading. One of the key drivers for the Euro is the hawkish comments from the European Central Bank. However, this can lose its importance if today’s inflation estimates read lower than expectations.

If the inflation estimates are lower than expectations and the Euro declines, a signal for a retracement will be triggered at 1.77083. However, a longer-term downward trend is not yet possible unless the exchange rate gains larger bearish momentum. Whereas, if the Eurozone inflation estimates read more than 2.5% and the EURNZD breaks the 1.77442 level, buy signals are again an option.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 3rd July 2024.

NASDAQ Eyes All-Time High as Employment Data Eases Investor Concerns.

• The JOLTS Job Openings comes in slightly higher than expectations improving investor sentiment.
• The NASDAQ rises 0.88% after the release of the latest US JOLTS Job Openings.
• Federal Reserve chairman advises inflationary data shows sign of inflation “cooling”. Reuter’s SmartEconomics predicts a Consumer Price Index reading of 0.1% for June.
• Investors turn their attention to the latest employment data and tonight’s FOMC Meeting Minutes.

USA100 – Employment Data Eases Concerns and Pushes The NASDAQ Close To An All-Time High!

The NASDAQ has risen 1.40% this week as market risk appetite improves, and institutions position themselves for the next earnings season. The NASDAQ has now formed a second higher high and a third higher low. For this reason, technical analysts are pointing towards a potential bullish trend, while economists also advise the NASDAQ is likely to perform well in the second half of the year.



The bulls quickly entered the market during yesterday’s trading session due to the positive employment data. Analysts thought the JOLTS Job Openings data would fall to the lowest since COVID lockdowns, but the figure read 180,000 more vacancies. Investors bought the news as the release confirms that the employment sector has become more “balanced”, remaining strong but simultaneously not strong enough to significantly increase salaries and inflation.

Another positive factor is the comments from the Federal Reserve’s Chairman. Mr Jerome Powell, after some persistently high inflation reports at the start of 2024, said that the data over the past 2 months “do suggest we are getting back on a disinflationary path.” However, economists are also noting that oil prices have risen by 8.40% in June 2024. According to economists, if prices remain around $85 per barrel, inflation potentially can become stickier.

However, even if inflation does become stickier, investors will soon start to turn their attention to the upcoming earnings season. Earnings season will start on Friday 12th July, but will gain momentum on the 17th! When monitoring individual components for the NASDAQ, in Tuesday’s session, 75% of the stocks rose in value and 83% of the most influential stocks rose.

The price of the NASDAQ is currently witnessing buy signals with the price trading comfortably above the 75-bar EMA and the Volume Weighted Average Price. Oscillators are also indicating buyers are controlling the market, but technical analysts are closely monitoring to ensure momentum continues. Breakout levels can be seen at $20,036.03 and $20,045.64. The NASDAQ’s all-time high is at $20,128.31.

EURUSD – The US Dollar Gains Momentum, Investors Focus On Upcoming Economic Data!

The price of the EURUSD during the Asian Session trades significantly lower which is primarily being driven by the US Dollar. However, the EURUSD quickly gains bullish momentum as the European session starts. Simultaneously, the Euro is increasing in value against most currencies and is only struggling against the AUD. US Dollar has largely been driven by positive economic data, but investors also should note dovish comments from the Fed can apply pressure.



The price of the US Dollar will mainly be influenced by three economic events. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, the ISM Services PMI and tonight’s FOMC Meeting Minutes. If the data reads higher than expectations, the price potentially can rise further.

Currently the EURUSD is trading within a small retracement upwards. Therefore, short term traders will closely monitor when momentum is regained, and a breakout is formed. The closest breakout level currently can be seen at 1.07354.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 4th July 2024.

Gold and Stocks Rise As Markets Increase Rate Cut Bets For September!

• The NASDAQ and SNP500 increase to new all-time highs despite economic and employment data reading lower than expectations.
• The FOMC continues the previous verbal trend set by the Chairman, Jerome Powell, advising inflation needs to decline further.
• The Chicago Exchange Fed Tool confirms a 67% chance of an interest rate cut in September. Previously, there was a 59% possibility.
• Gold quickly increases as an interest rate cut looks more likely for September.

USA100 – Bad News is Good News for the NASDAQ!

This week, the NASDAQ is the second best-performing index behind the NIKKEI225. The NASDAQ is now trading at its highest price ever and has added more than 23% in 2024. The price is being driven by investors’ belief that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates in September. As a result, the stock has become more attractive and consumer demand potentially can improve.



This week so far, the FOMC Meeting Minutes and the chairman of the Federal Reserve have indicated that inflation is on the right path. However, the Federal Reserve will need inflation to continue to decline between now and September’s Rate decision. Even with just a 0.1% monthly decline, which would reduce inflation to 3.00%, market pricing indicates that the Federal Reserve will still alter its policy!

The latest data also supports the possibility of frailty within the US economy and growth. The ISM Services PMI fell to its lowest in 2024, the weekly unemployment claims again read higher and the ADP Employment Change fell short. However, the JOLTS Job Openings beat expectations. Therefore, the data pressures the Fed that the economy will soon need support, but simultaneously does not cause panic amongst investors. At the moment, bad news continues to be good news for the stock market. However, the question is if this will continue when tomorrow’s NFP data is released.

Many believe the trend will continue regarding “bad news is good news”. However, most also believe that the ideal release would be slightly poorer than expectations. Analysts currently believe the Unemployment Rate will remain at 4.00%, the NFP to add 194,000 new individuals and for salaries to rise 0.3%. Volatility throughout today may be muted due to the US bank holiday, however, volatility potentially can quickly rise as Asian Market’s reopen tomorrow morning!

A positive factor for the NASDAQ continues to be the upcoming earnings data, but also hopes that tensions in the Middle East may subside. Reports confirm that Israel and Hamas may be close to an agreement which will stop the current war, even if only temporarily. If an agreement is reached, the news will be deemed as positive for the stock market and can reduce oil prices. Oil prices this morning have so far fallen 0.35%!

XAUUSD – Gold Benefits From Rate Cute Bets!

Gold’s price rose as the US Dollar became less attractive to investors due to potential lower interest rates in September. The Chicago Exchange Fed Tool confirms a 67% chance of an interest rate cut in September. Previously, there was a 59% possibility, hence a considerable rise which can support Gold. If the possibility continues to rise, investors may increase exposure to Gold. The price of Gold rose 1.15% on Wednesday.

If the employment data is weaker than what analysts are currently expecting, investors potentially may turn to Gold as an alternative. This is due to the commodity’s safe haven nature and its use as a hedge. For example, if the US Unemployment Rate rises to 4.1% and the NFP data reads 180,000, demand for Gold can quickly increase!



Currently the price of Gold is trading lower during this morning’s session, but has not yet formed a lower low. If the price drops to a lower low, the trend indicates a larger retracement or a full correction back to $2,338.65. The smaller timeframes currently point to this scenario, but this will change if the price increases above $2,362.44.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews 10]

Date: 5th July 2024.

NFP Is Here! How Will Today’s NFP Impact The NASDAQ

• Labour win UK Elections, receiving an unconditional majority of seats in the House of Commons (410 out of 650).
• The British Pound and FTSE100 increase in value as Labour wins an outright majority.
• The Japanese Yen sharply increases in value as the US Dollar underperforms ahead of the US employment data.
• Investors turn their attention to today’s NFP release and Unemployment Data!

USA100

The NASDAQ quickly increases in value as the Asian Market opens and the US bank holiday ends. Investors now turn their attention to this afternoon’s employment data. This morning the price quickly rose 0.48%, continuing the trend of the past week.



The “bullish” momentum that accelerated throughout the week as positions in the US Dollar weakened is gradually slowing down ahead of today’s release of the June labor market report. This report could influence the US Federal Reserve’s decision on reducing borrowing costs by the end of the year. Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech, and the June meeting minutes were released. The market reacted with a higher risk appetite, even though officials reiterated the need for further evidence of inflation reduction to the target 2.0% before initiating a monetary easing program.

Investors also continue to position themselves for the upcoming earnings data and an interest rate cut in September 2024. An ideal NFP release for the stock market will be a slightly worser reading. For example, NFP to come in as expected but for the unemployment rate to rise to 4.1%. This afternoon’s employment data is likely to trigger significantly higher volatility. However, investors will also be concerned if the price of oil continues to rise as it has over the past 4 weeks. If the NFP data triggers higher oil prices, investors will be cautious that it does not apply upward pressure on US inflation. Analysts expect the NFP to add a further 191,000 employed individuals.

Currently the price is trading at an all-time high and is witnessing buy signals. The price forms a bullish crossover and trades significantly above most moving averages. However, the price is not yet thought to be overpriced based on the RSI. All global indices trade higher, which indicates a strong sentiment towards the equity markets.

Lastly, of the top 5 most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, 4 are trading higher in pre-trading hours. This includes Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon. Currently, NVIDIA trades 0.15% lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.