HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

HFblogNews · October 4

Date: 04th October 2024.

Investors Increase Jobs Data Expectations As The Dollar Strengthens!

The US Dollar increases in value for a fourth consecutive day as the NFP release edges closer.
US economic data continues to support a soft landing and gradual interest rate cuts.
US ISM Services PMI beat expectations and rose to an 18-month high.
Oil prices rise to a 30-day high as Israel confirms the IDF will retaliate against Iran’s latest strikes.

NZDUSD – Markets Expect The RBNZ To Cut, USD Depends On Jobs Data!

The NZDUSD continues to trade downwards for a third day and has done so while only forming one minor retracement. Traders now question how far the exchange rate can fall?

Price action is currently indicating that the market is attempting to drive the exchange rate lower as the Federal Reserve dials down its dovish tone. So far, the price potential looks on track to decline closer to the previous support levels. The closest support level can be seen at 0.61514 and then 0.61234. However, if it is able to do so will depend on the upcoming economic data, particularly this afternoon’s US employment data.

The market has raised their NFP Employment Change expectations to 150,000 for September. However, participants continue to predict no change for the Unemployment Rate. If the NFP rises above the expected figure while the Unemployment Rate remains the same or falls, the data would potentially support the USD further. In addition to this, the next Federal Reserve rate decision in November will most definitely be a 25-basis point cut. This would be key for the NZDUSD to continue its bearish trend back to the 0.61234 level.

On the other hand, investors also should note that the RBNZ will also confirm their rate decision on Wednesday 9th. Therefore, can the price action change as we approach the weekend and next week’s rate decision? This is something investors will need to monitor. Though, so far the worst performing currency of the week continues to be the New Zealand Dollar along with the Japanese Yen.

House prices in New Zealand fell for the seventh consecutive month, though at a slower rate, dropping by just 0.5% following a decrease in borrowing costs, according to economists at CoreLogic NZ. This trend highlights a reduction in purchasing power amid a slowing economy, as rising unemployment starts to impact household incomes. The outlook could shift if monetary authorities maintain their dovish approach at their upcoming meeting on October 9th. Notably, this stance has already helped bring the average two-year mortgage rate below 6.0%.

If the above data does prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates, the NZD could witness stronger pressure. The Official Cash Rate is currently at 5.25% and analysts expect the Central Bank to cut a further 0.50% to 4.75%.

When evaluating the price movement on the two hour timeframe, the NZDUSD is finding support at the same price but the resistance is not yet clear. This also indicates that sellers remain considerably active. The support level can be seen at 0.62066 and the price has crossed downwards which indicates a sell signal. Though some traders may wish for the support level to be broken before speculating downward price movement.

Furthermore, on the 5-Minute Chart the NZDUSD trades below the 200-bar SMA and on the 2-Hour Chart below the 75-bar EMA. This indicates the trend could potentially continue but traders will need to be cautious about volatility and timing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 7

Date: 07th October 2024.

Oil bets most Bullish in 2 Years, Stocks pared some gains.

The September NFP report was a blowout by almost every measure. It quickly knocked out lingering fears of a recession this year or early next, but also knocked out expectations for another jumbo -50 bp rate cut this year. So, what’s the market signaling right now? ‘Goldilocks’ scenario?

Asia & European Sessions:

Equity markets have moved broadly higher across Asia, and European markets are also finding buyers in early trade. Recent US data have boosted growth optimism, and Chinese officials seem more committed to growth boosting stimulus measures.
Japanese stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Nikkei rising by 2.05%, driven by gains in the Mining, Chemical, Petroleum & Plastic, and Power sectors.
European equities continue to benefit from a positive US jobs report. The DAX and FTSE 100 have already started to pare opening gains and the DAX is down -0.1%, while the FTSE 100 up a mere 0.04%.
Data:German manufacturing orders plunged -3.8% m/m in August & U.K. house prices rose 0.3% m/m in September, according to the Halifax index. German data added to signs that the German economy will contract again this year.
This Week: The inflation data are in view and will have a little more importance as the jobs report has extinguished fears of a recession and boosted the potential for a pick up in price pressures ahead. We expect gains of 0.1% and 0.2% for headline and core CPI for September (Thursday). Increases of 0.1% and 0.2% are projected for September PPI (Friday). Along with the data, there is a host of Fedspeakers through the week and the FOMC minutes (Wednesday). Supply is also on tap with the Treasury selling $119 bln in 3-, 10-, and 30-year maturities.
Earnings season looms: JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report on Friday, with PepsiCo in the spotlight tomorrow and Delta Air Lines on Thursday.

Financial Markets Performance:

The USDIndex traded within Friday’s range so far today and is at 102.32.
The USDJPY surged to test 149.00 immediately after the data before drifting down to 148.80. Still, this is the strongest since July and early August were the pair hit a multidecade peak at 161.69 on July 3. Currebntly is at 148.13
According to Bloomberg, Oil futures posted their largest gain in more than a year last week. USOILhas lifted to $74.63 per barrel as markets watch developments in the Middle East. Gold meanwhile is at USD 2649.19 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 8

Date: 08th October 2024.

Stock markets remain under pressure; bonds find buyers.

Asia & European Sessions:

The markets were weaker Monday as players continued to adjust to Friday’s strong September data and price out aggressive rate cut expectations. In fact Fed funds futures have not only taken out risks for -50 bps next month, but now reflect chances for no action at all.
Wall Street was in the red all session and the selloff extended into the close, in part given the pop in rates.
Asian markets mostly corrected, with the Hang Seng leading the way and plunging -7.1% as mainland China bourses returned from a week-long holiday. The CSI 300 rose 5.8% in catch up trade, but failed to match the rally seen elsewhere over the past week.
Investors were disappointed by the briefing from the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission, which did not present any additional stimulus measures. Instead, a CNY 100 billion investment plan scheduled for next year will be brought forward. China also announced a plan to issue special purpose bonds designed to stimulate local government growth.
According to FT: ”Hong Kong equities were on track for their worst single-day performance since the global financial crisis on Tuesday, even as stocks in mainland China rose on their first day of trading after an extended break.”
RBA minutes suggested that the bank will keep interest rates at their 12-year high until inflation shows consistent signs of nearing its target. Minutes also reveal that the board considered both tightening and easing monetary policy, depending on future economic conditions. For now, they have decided to maintain the rate at 4.35%, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook.

Financial Markets Performance:

The USDIndex closed at 102.493 after hitting a high of 102.620, the best since August 15.
USOil rallied 3.9% to $77.87 per barrel prior to retreating to $75.44.
Gold holds $2620 floor for a 3rd week in a row.
Treasury yields hit their highest levels since the summer. The NASDAQ dropped -1.18%, while the S&P500 slumped -0.96%, with the Dow off -0.94%.
Nikkei lost 1.2% to 38,861.09.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 9

Date: 09th October 2024.

Mag 7 surged, Oil dipped as China weighed on the demand outlook.

It is a real mix in the markets amid a confluence of factors including positioning, Fed policy outlooks, growth and inflation outlooks, election uncertainties, and stimulus (or lack of) from China.

Asia & European Sessions:

Wall Street climbed amid a surge in the Mag 7 stocks, paced by Nvidia (+4%). Stocks are recovering in general after the retreat to begin the month as unwinding of big rate cut bets and geopolitical angst weighed. Investor optimism has gotten a boost from signs of a solid labor market and economy, as well as from the stimulus from China.
Goldman Sachs raised its outlook on the S&P500 to 6,000. The NASDAQ ended with a 1.45% advance, while the S&P500 was 0.97% higher, and the Dow was up 0.30%. The VIX fell -5.3% to 21.43.
The US Justice Department announced on Tuesday that it may request a court order compelling Alphabet’s Google to sell off parts of its business, including its Chrome browser and Android operating system, which authorities argue are key tools in maintaining its illegal monopoly in the online search market (handles 90% of internet searches in the US, had established an unlawful monopoly).
Nvidia surged 4% posting its 5th consecutive day of gains. Nvidia shares have risen nearly 14% in the past week and are up 190% over the past year. Several major investment firms, including KeyBanc, Citi, and Bernstein, reaffirmed their positive ratings on the stock. KeyBanc analysts also increased their 2025 sales forecast for Nvidia to $130.6 billion, driven by strong demand for its new Blackwell AI chips, which are expected to contribute $7 billion to fourth-quarter revenue. Wedbush analysts highlighted that the recent $6.6 billion funding round for OpenAI could spur further investment in AI startups, boosting Nvidia’s AI chip demand well into 2025.

Financial Markets Performance:

The USDIndex was little changed at 102.50.
USOil slid -4.17% to $72.26 per barrel following the climb to a session peak of $78.46 Monday, in part as China failed to add to its stimulus binge. Oil is facing a tug-of-war between fundamentals indicating a surplus in 2025 and geopolitical tensions.
Gold broke below the key $2620 per ounce from the record $2672.38 from late September amid expectations for a benign CPI report ahead along with the firmer dollar. Risk aversion has been keeping demand for the precious metal underpinned, even against the background of a pickup in yields and a stronger dollar. OTC sales have also helped to boost prices, while central bank demand has eased somewhat with the rise in prices. Recent data showed that China’s central bank refrained from purchasing gold for its reserves for a fifth consecutive month in September.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 10

Date: 10th October 2024.

Stocks mixed after a largely higher close, Disagreement in Fed; Eyes on US Inflation.

Asia & European Sessions:

Treasuries sold off on the session with few buyers willing to step in to backstop the market ahead of CPI. Fading rate cut bets continued to weigh.
FOMC minutes reflected a tough choice on the September 18 rate cut. There was considerable disagreement over the size of the move. A “substantial majority” favored the aggressive -50 bp action. “Some” preferred a quarter-point reduction although a “few” could have supported the smaller move. All, however, supported lowering rates at last month’s meeting as Governor Bowman dissented in favor of -25 bps.
Wall Street caught a bid, helped by expectations for a tame CPI Thursday, with the Dow and S&P500 rallying to fresh record highs. The Dow climbed 1.03% to 42,512 and the S&P500 was up 0.7% to 5792. These are the 35th and the 44th record peaks of the year, respectively. The NASDAQ advanced 0.6%.
Asia Session: Chinese stocks surged following the announcement of stimulus measures, as investors shifted their attention to upcoming data. Chinese investors will be looking ahead to the finance ministry press conference on Saturday for insights into fiscal stimulus plans.
Japanese stocks present the highest weekly inflows in 6 months from foreign investors as the Yen weakened following dovish comments from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
US CPI preview: CPI is expected to post modest gains in September of 0.1% overall and 0.2% excluding food and energy. As-expected September figures would result in the y/y headline slowing to 2.3% from 2.5% in August, and well below the 40-year high of 9.1% from June 2022. Over the rest of the year the y/y gauges will be restrained by hard comparisons that could see the potential for a slower pace of rate cuts, especially if the economy and labor market remain solid.

Financial Markets Performance:

The USDIndex had a solid day, firming for a 6th straight session to 102.92, the highest since mid-August.
Fading rate hike bets on the BoJ and diminishing rate cut hopes from the Fed saw USDJPY rally to 149.35, the highest since August 1.
USOil rose after two days of decline, with UKOil trading close to $77 a barrel. The US crude stockpiles expanded the most since April, while the market remains tense over Israel’s potential retaliatory actions against Iran, as Iran has threatened to unleash thousands of missiles if necessary. President Joe Biden has advised against targeting Iranian oil infrastructure and spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday for the first time in over a month.
Gold extended decline to $2605.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 11

Date: 11th October 2024.

Treasuries close mixed, Wall Street lower, US Dollar steady after data – Eyes on PPI.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The hotter CPI and cooler jobless claims made for mixed action in the markets. There was also some marginal impact from the 30-year auction and Fedspeak.

Treasuries were bifurcated in a curve steepening trade with the front end outperforming. The jump in claims, even if due in part to weather, strikes and other factors, supported expectations for additional rate cuts ahead, though of the -25 bp variety. The 2-year yield closed -5.6 bps lower at 3.966%. Dip buyers from the 4% rate also underpinned. Meanwhile, the long end was heavy on the hotter CPI and with the weight of supply. The 10-year was fractionally lower at 4.067%, but had spiked to 4.115% on the pop in inflation. The curve closed at 10.4 bps from 4 bps Wednesday.

Wall Street finished in the red after the Dow and S&P500 hit fresh records previously. The indexes were well off their lows at the end of the day. The NASDAQ dipped -0.05%, while the S&P500 was -0.21% lower and the Dow was down -0.14%.

The USDIndex finished little changed at 102.70 after jumping to a session high of 103.178 on the CPI then slipping to the day’s low of 102.720 on the claims numbers.

Oil climbed 3.26% to $75.63 per barrel and Gold rose 0.84% to $2629.51 per ounce.

Implied Fed funds futures continue to price in -25 bp cuts ahead, with some chance for no action rather than another jumbo -50 bps. Indeed, the latter has been priced out. This view was supported by the FOMC minutes yesterday that showed a big debate and some push back over the decision to lower rates by -50 bps on September 18. We continue to expect two quarter point reductions over the rest of this year.

In spite of being data dependent, we highly doubt the FOMC will skip November as they kick off their normalization process, especially as officials will be loath to do a start-stop so soon. And Chair Powell and others have told us to monitor the dot plot reflecting -25 bps in November and December as the base case.

Looking Ahead:

The hotter CPI puts attention on PPI and the inflation components of the consumer sentiment report due out Friday. Respective gains of 0.1% and 0.2% are projected for headline and core producer prices in September after increases of 0.2% and 0.3% in August. Results in line with the estimates would see the headline pace dip to a 1.6% y/y rate from 1.7% y/y previously, while the core rate should rise to 2.6% y/y from 2.4% y/y.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 15

Date: 15th October 2024.

Global Markets Mixed Amid Earnings Optimism and Easing Oil Concerns.

The market’s momentum, fueled by optimism around earnings reports, falling interest rates and expectations that the Federal Reserve can reduce inflation without triggering a recession.

Asia & European Sessions:

European futures rose while Asian stocks showed mixed performance following Wall Street’s record highs.
Chinese shares saw extended losses after disappointing data showed China’s broader export growth slowed to just 2.4% year-on-year, the weakest since May, reflecting ongoing economic challenges. The lack of clear fiscal stimulus from Chinese authorities continues to weigh on investor sentiment and risk appetite in Chinese equities.
Technology stocks in Asia followed the strong lead from their US counterparts, with the S&P500 gaining nearly 1% to reach its 46th record high this year. Despite concerns over lowered Q3 forecasts, investors seem to be betting on positive earnings surprises. The Nasdaq also advanced by 0.8%, led by gains in Nvidia Corp., Apple Inc., and Tesla Inc. Financial stocks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup rose ahead of their earnings releases.
Nikkei hit its highest level since July, with benchmarks in Australia and Taiwan also trending upward. Japanese stocks were among the strongest performers so far today, with the Yen maintaining strength near a key psychological level against the US Dollar.
Earnings reports: Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, and UnitedHealth Group.

Financial Markets Performance:

The USDIndex strengthened against most major currencies.
The USDJPY slightly dipped to 149.34 from 149.96. The EURUSD broke 1.09 and extended to 1.0830.
USoil dropped sharply to $70.60 per barrel from $4.18 high yesterday. Oil prices declined as concerns about potential Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities eased. Oil and energy shares dropped after reports indicated Israel does not intend to target Iranian oil or nuclear sites.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 17

Date: 17th October 2024.

Stocks steady ahead of ECB, BTC Up, Oil below $70.

Asia & European Sessions:

Wall Street, Treasuries, the US Dollar, and Gold all gained yesterday amid a variety of factors. Earnings beats, rate cut expectations, growth concerns, geopolitical risks, some stability in oil all contributed. The market continues to price for -25 bp rate cuts in November and December.
The Dow bounced 0.79% to 43,077 to its 38th record high of the year. Financials helped pace after more earnings beats, this time from JPM. Weakness in some tech shares, including ASML, limited the advance in the S&P500 and NASDAQ.
Asian shares predominantly rose today following stronger-than-expected earnings reports from major companies like Morgan Stanley and United Airlines. Chinese markets lost momentum after a press briefing on the property market failed to announce significant stimulus measures.
European stocks are expected to have a lackluster opening as traders await a decision from the ECB regarding monetary policy.
The rally in Chinese shares lost momentum after a press briefing on the property market failed to announce significant stimulus measures. The CSI 300 in China reversed a rally of up to 1.3% after officials revealed plans to expand support for “white list” projects to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) from the previously deployed 2.23 trillion yuan.
ECB Preview: with headline inflation below target and signs that services price inflation has peaked, the ECB’s focus has switched from inflation risks to growth concerns. The flurry of comments from ECB officials over the past week have pretty much confirmed that Lagarde will deliver another 25 bp cut on Thursday. We expect the ECB to cut again in December, although the central bank head may once again stop short of committing to another move just yet. Even if the ECB cuts rates by a further 50 bp this year, policy settings will remain restrictive and the “end-rate” of the current easing cycle is likely to be higher than markets expected initially and clearly above the low point of the last easing cycle. That will likely keep bonds volatile.

Financial Markets Performance:

The USDIndex climbed to 103.55, a third straight session over 103 and is up 3 handles from the 100.79 close on September 30. The rally broken the 200-day SMA.
Oil dipped below the $70.00 per barrel. Energy prices have generally been influenced by oil market fluctuations, particularly as fears diminish over potential Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities, which could disrupt exports to China and other regions. Additionally, concerns about demand strength amid China’s economic slowdown have impacted oil prices.
Bitcoin rallied with markets viewing the climb as a sign that markets anticipate a victory for pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election.
Gold rose to $2685 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 18

Date: 18th October 2024.

Global Markets Steady as China’s Economic Data Surprises, Gold Hits New Record.

As the US economy continues to show resilience, traders further reduced their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the remaining meetings of 2024. Strong US retail sales data for September exceeded forecasts, highlighting sustained consumer spending, which is powering economic growth.

Asia & European Sessions:

A rally in risk and some unwinding of haven trades hit Treasuries.
A stronger than expected September retail sales report weighed on Treasuries at it furthered expectations the FOMC will reduce rates at a more moderate pace into year end. And it added to prospects the Fed may only cut one more time this year with the November implied rate at -22 bps and the December contract at -41 bps.
Asia equities rose earlier today as the central bank introduced new lending programs to boost corporate share buybacks and equity purchases. However Chinese equities edged down after official data showed slowing economic growth at 4.6% in the Q3 from 4.7% in Q2, underscoring investor uncertainty over government stimulus measures first announced in September.
Netflix reported net income of $2.36 billion, roughly 6% above Wall Street predictions. Netflix saw a stronger-than-anticipated revenue boost in the latest quarter, alongside solid subscriber (5.1mln) growth, even with fewer blockbuster releases.

Financial Markets Performance:

The USDIndex climbed to 103.60,supported by widening rate and growth differentials. The downshift in expectations on Fed cuts, this week’s easing, albeit cautious, from the ECB, the chance for an aggressive -50 bp easing from the BoC, and the unwinding of BoJ rate hike outlooks have been supportive.
The USDJPY broke to 150 level, the best since the end of July. It could rally further given the less dovish view on the Fed and if there are no signs of MoF intervention.
The GBPUSD has stabilized and firmed slightly to 1.3060, but is largely recovering from the drop to 1.2990 which is the weakest since mid-August.
The EURUSD has slumped to 1.0807 and is the weakest since the end of July. Concurrently, USDCAD has risen to 1.3795, the highest since early August.
Gold prices hit a record high, extending a long-running bullish trend as investors sought safe-haven assets. Gold spot prices rose to $2,713. The rise in gold prices, fueled by inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, has been consistent since late 2022.
Bitcoin also saw gains, rising to $68,350, with some investors viewing it as a hedge similar to gold.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 21

Date: 21st October 2024.

Gold at historic high, US equities nearly at record high!

Asia & European Sessions:

Global financial markets are being influenced by the health of the US & Chinese economies, alongside the impact of Middle East conflicts and broader geopolitical concerns.Chinese banks’ decision to lower lending rates follows a series of government measures aimed at spurring economic growth and stabilizing the housing market.
Wall Street finished in the green on the day and for the week. Earnings beats added to signs of a strong economy and a pick up in big tech to boost the major averages.
The Dow rallied another 0.09% to 43,275 for its 39th record high of the year. The S&P500 was 0.40% higher at 5864, its 47th peak for 2024.
Asian markets showed mixed performance as investors awaited new catalysts for trading.
Gold surged to a record high, $2732, with silver, palladium, and platinum also rising, driven by rising demand amid Middle East tensions and positioning ahead of the upcoming US presidential election.
Oil prices ticked higher after sharp declines the previous week, as concerns eased over potential Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities in retaliation for a missile attack earlier in the month. Iran, a major crude producer, plays a key role in global exports, particularly to China. Lingering concerns over China’s demand have also weighed on oil prices.
Big week ahead with: BoC rate decision, lots of ECB & Fed Speeches, global PMIs, US retail sales, earnings from Tesla, Verizon, Coca-Cola, IBM, Amazon.com.

As the US election approaches, investors are positioning themselves for potential outcomes, with odds leaning toward a Trump victory and Republican control of Congress. Traders are reviving bets on assets that performed well after Trump’s 2016 win, particularly focusing on the impact of potential policies like increased trade tariffs.

Financial Markets Performance:

The USDIndex pulled back to 103.40.
The USDJPY fell to 149.07, as the Yen strengthened for a 2nd day against the US Dollar, as traders positioned for Japan’s parliamentary election on Sunday. Polls suggest that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito coalition could fall below the 233-seat majority threshold.
Oil prices closed in the red, testing $68.69 per barrel before closing -1.8% lower at $69.37 per barrel and the weakest of the month, largely on supply concerns.
Bitcoin neared $70,000 today, supported by strong inflows into ETFs ($2.4 bln) and optimism regarding US regulatory developments for the largest digital asset.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 22

Date: 22nd October 2024.

Stocks’ rally ran out of steam?

Asia & European Sessions:

A number of factors weighed on Treasuries and EGBs, but the underlying element was inflation anxiety. Several factors, including concerns over bond supply and stronger US economic data, are contributing to the bond selloff.
The resilience of the US economy, diminishing expectations for Fed rate cuts, the bounce in Oil prices, the acceleration in rate cut prospects from the BoC, BoE, and ECB, fears of fiscal largess, and the massive stimulus from China all added to the likelihood price pressures could remain sticky.
Wall Street was mixed in relatively quiet action.
Additionally, traders are betting on the risk of a Republican win in the US election, which could lead to looser fiscal policy and increased tariffs under Donald Trump, potentially worsening the federal deficit and stoking inflation.
Asian equities declined for a 2nd consecutive day, along with bonds, as traders reassessed cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. This followed a decline in US equities after a strong run-up to all-time highs.
Australian and New Zealand bonds also fell.
Investors in Japan pulled back ahead of the upcoming general election on Sunday, with stocks, bonds, and the Yen all declining simultaneously amid polls suggesting the ruling coalition could lose its majority.
The Nikkei dropped 1.4%, reaching its lowest level since early October.
Gold rose to $2,733.41 in Asia, following Monday’s record high of $2,740.59. Gold has surged nearly 30% this year, hitting successive all-time highs, with momentum accelerating as the Fed pivoted to cutting rates. Hedge funds have been increasing net-long positions in gold, and ETF inflows have also contributed to the rally. Traders are also adjusting portfolios ahead of the US election on Nov. 5, with gold seen as a safe bet during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Financial Markets Performance:

The USDIndex hit a multi-month high, largely on the less dovish view on Fed policy and reached 104.00, the first time at that level since late July.
The USDJPY rallied to 151 for the first time since July.
Oil prices increased 1.9% to $70.54 per barrel.
Gold relinquished another new high at $2740.59 before closing down -0.02% at $2720.85 per ounce.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 23

Date: 23rd October 2024.

XAGUSD: Increased retail demand sends silver prices soaring

Silver maintained its recent gains to around $34.8 per ounce on Tuesday, holding at its highest level in nearly 12 years as uncertainty surrounding the US election, Middle East tensions and bets on further monetary easing fuelled safe-haven demand for the precious metal.

Expectations of stronger industrial demand for silver, which is a key component used in solar panels, as the world shifts to cleaner energy, also boosted prices. In addition, top metals consumer China has recently introduced a series of stimulus measures to revive economic growth. Earlier this week, the People’s Bank of China cut its one- and five-year lending rates by 25 basis points to 3.1% and 3.6% respectively. On Friday, the PBOC also moved to support Chinese equity markets and announced that it may lower bank reserve requirements again before the year ends.

The main catalyst behind the recent rally has been rising retail demand for silver, which has become an attractive asset for investors seeking protection against ongoing changes in monetary policy.

As global central banks signal a shift towards a more accommodative stance, investors are increasingly looking at silver as a cost-effective hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. This trend is particularly evident in the context of silver’s price performance relative to gold.

While gold recently reached a record high of $2,748 per ounce, silver is still well below its all-time high of $49.78, reached in April 2011, indicating further appreciation potential. Investor sentiment has also been supported by recent developments in China, where authorities have imposed aggressive monetary measures aimed at revitalising the economy. These measures are expected to stimulate economic activity, which is likely to boost actual demand for silver and other industrial metals in the coming months.

Demand for gold and silver as a store of value was also strong, due to expectations that whoever wins the US presidential election next month, fiscal spending will rise and increase the budget deficit. Moreover, dovish comments from ECB President Lagarde on Tuesday were bullish for the precious metal, when she said the direction of interest rate movements in the Eurozone is clear.

From a technical perspective, XAGUSD has successfully broken the resistance line of the bullish pennant pattern, confirming the positive implications of this technical setup. The current bullish trajectory suggests that silver could reach the FE100% projection level of $36 from the $11.63 – $30.07 and $17.b54 drawdowns. The move above the 52-week EMA informs that the ongoing bullish trend might last even longer, as long as the $32.49 resistance that is now switching to function as support holds. Given the current dynamics, the outlook for silver is still bullish.

The possibility of a short-term correction, however, remains valid due to profit-taking.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Ady Phangestu
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 24

Date: 24th October 2024.

Mixed earnings, Stocks rebound, Dollar in a pull back.

Asia & European Sessions:

Treasuries extend losses on anxieties and uncertainties, rise in yields hits stocks. Election jitters remain prominent, along with geopolitical worries.
Wall Street was hammered also as some earnings disappointed, and bad news from some tech companies. An E. coli outbreak at McDonald’s also impacted.
Expectations for deficit financing no matter who wins the election, and the concomitant surge in debt are further exacerbating inflation fears. A tepid 20-year auction added to the market’s woes.
Fed’s Beige Book showed moderate growth and prices, decent labor market. US existing home sales fell -1.0% to 3.840 mln rate.
Bank of Canada cut its overnight target rate by -50 bps to 3.75%, as widely expected. This is a 4th straight cut and ties the lowest rate since October 2022. While the statement indicated the timing and pace of future action will be guided by data, it was also indicated that more cuts are likely if the economy evolves as expected. The jumbo-sized cut is meant to boost growth and keep CPI close to 2%.
Eurozone Composite PMI lifted to 2-month high of 49.7 in October from 49.6 in the previous month. German data actually came in somewhat better than expected, while French reports disappointed. The marginal improvement in the headline still leaves the Composite PMI in contraction territory, with new orders falling for a fifth consecutive month and at a similar pace as in September.
UK October flash services PMI 51.8 vs 52.4 expected.

Financial Markets Performance:

The NASDAQ lost -1.60%, with the S&P500 tumbling -0.92%, while the Dow slid -0.96%.
The USDIndex hit 104.40, breaking the April-June support which turned into a key Resistance level. It rallied against all G10 peers.
The USDJPY closed at 152.70 after paring its jump to 153.185, the highest since July amid risk the LDP and coalition partner Komeito could lose their majority at the weekend general election.
The USDCAD settled back to 1.3825 after the BoC’s jumbo -50 bp cut and dovish guidance.
Oil prices increased 1.9% to $70.54 per barrel.
Gold fell -1.19% to $2716.17 per ounce after several fresh record highs.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 25

Date: 25th October 2024.

UK Debt Set To Rise: How Will the GBP React?

The UK Chancellor looks to change Fiscal Policy in order to allow the UK to borrow 70 million GBP more.
The IMF increases its forecast for the UK economy to recover this year from 0.7% to 1.1%. UK PMI data underachieved on Thursday.
The NASDAQ increases 0.55% as Tesla’s latest earnings data increase shareholder sentiment.
The US Dollar Index retraces after increasing in value for 4 consecutive weeks.

GBPUSD – UK To Change Fiscal Policy To Increase Debt Levels!

The GBPUSD exchange rate trades slightly lower during this morning’s asian session but looks to be regaining momentum. In addition to this, the GBPUSD continues to remain below most Moving Averages despite the upward price movement on Thursday. The downward price movement on Thursday was largely due to a decline in the US Dollar and not necessarily the Pound strengthening. For this week, the British Pound has fallen 0.65% against the currency market and traders will closely watch the Pound’s reaction to the UK’s Autumn budget.

The US Dollar is the best performing currency of the past 7 days and is the best performing of the day so far. The US Dollar continues to be supported by significant economic data. This includes the Weekly Unemployment Claims which fell to 227,000, New Home Sales rising to 738,000 and Flash PMI data reading slightly higher than previous expectations.

The Beige Book made public yesterday indicates that economic activity remained steady in September 2024. However, companies reported a modest uptick in hiring, a general easing of inflation pressures, and input costs rising faster than sales prices, which impacted business profitability. Lastly, the Federal Reserve continues to support the US Dollar as the market predicts a 0.25% rate cut.

The Bank of England on the other hand are likely to cut interest rates at the next meeting but it is not clear whether the BoE will cut 0.25% or 0.50%. Meanwhile, investors are watching the Autumn budget set for October 30th with a close eye. The UK Chancellor is looking to change Fiscal Policy in order to allow the UK to borrow 70 million GBP more. This could be a challenge and if global investors are not comfortable with the risk, this could pressure the Pound. This is something also previously seen under the Truss administration, but economists do not expect such a sharp nosedive. Lastly, yesterday’s UK PMI data for both the Services and Manufacturing sectors fell lower than the previous month and lower than current expectations.

However, if the price of the GBPUSD continues to decline, where does technical analysis point to a trigger point? As the price retraces back to the previous swing high, traders will look for the price to regain momentum before speculating a decline. The latest bullish swing measures 0.14%. Therefore if the price falls below 1.29618, investors will consider the momentum an opportunity. This will also push the price back below the 200-bar SMA on the 5-Minute Chart.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · November 7

Date: 7th November 2024.

Today’s Highlights & Analysis: Election, BoE & Fed Rate Decisions!

The SNP500 saw its best post-election day in history. It rose 2.50% on Wednesday.
Qualcomm beat earnings and revenue expectations adding to the bullish sentiment of the SNP500 and NASDAQ!
The VIX drops to a 2-month low indicating a higher risk appetite but investors are monitoring higher bond yields which have risen to a 4-month high.
The US Dollar Index retraces on Thursday morning after increasing to an 18-week high on Wednesday. Investors turn their attention to the Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech this evening.

SNP500 – 2024 Is On Track To Be The Best Year Since 2019 For The SNP500!

The SNP500 continues to trade higher on Thursday as buyers maintain control and hold onto their positions. The SNP500 trades 0.14% higher during this morning’s Asian Session in addition to the 2.50% rise on Wednesday. The market is positively reacting to Trump’s Pro US stance and the fact that the Republicans are likely to hold the presidency, house and senate.

Economists have voiced concerns about a Trump presidency such as the Federal debt rising due to significant tax cuts to both business and citizens. Also in addition to this, tariffs and trade wars in China and Europe can significantly increase inflation. However, it is important to note that this is not what the market is currently pricing into the market. Investors will without doubt be scrutinizing comments from the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, and hoping for his opinion on the matter. Of course, these comments can create a ripple effect on the stock market.

Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% this evening and a further 0.25% in December. If the Chairman signals a different path, the stock market is likely to witness a higher level of volatility. If the Fed indicates a more hawkish stance there is a higher possibility the SNP500 can witness a large retracement downwards or a full correction back closer to $5800.

A positive indication for the SNP500 continues to be the VIX index which fell a further 0.90% this morning. The remarkably lower VIX index signals a higher risk appetite towards the stock market which increases demand. However, a potential problem is the bond market where yields have risen significantly. Higher bond yields trigger a higher cost of debt which can negatively influence consumer demand. This morning, the US 10-year bond yield fell 24 points which is another positive, but only if the yield continues to fall throughout the day.

Lastly, the quarterly earnings report from Qualcomm adds to the higher sentiment towards the SNP500. Qualcomm’s earnings per share beat expectations by 4.74% and revenue rose almost 900 million compared to the previous quarter. The stock rose more than 10.00% in the last 24-hours supporting the SNP500. Qualcomm’s stocks hold a weight of 0.38% and it is the 45th most influential stock from the SNP500’s 500 components.

Technical analysis continues to point towards a bullish trend due to strong momentum. However, on the 5-minute chart, the price is retracing slightly lower as we edge closer towards the European Cash Open. Therefore, ideally investors may wish for bullish momentum to be regained prior to speculating another buy trade. For example, if the price rises above $5,943.84.

EURUSD – The Euro Continues To Struggle But The USD Retraces On Thursday!

The Euro continues to witness a lack of demand and is again one of the weakest currencies of the day. The Euro index is currently trading 0.20% higher which is only better than the US Dollar Index and Swiss Franc. The best performing currencies of the day are the New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar.

Investors are hoping the Federal Reserve chairman will comment on potential tariffs, tax cuts, deportations of migrant workers and a lower oil price. If the Federal Reserve advises the regulator to be more cautious about taking into consideration interest rate cuts in the future due to the above, investors may increase exposure to the US Dollar. However, this can negatively impact the stock market and the value of bonds.

The US Dollar Index is declining on Thursday forming a retracement measuring almost 0.50%. Therefore, investors should note that the volatility is also coming from the USD, not solely the Euro. The decline is understandable considering the strong rise in the US Dollar post election, which saw the currency rise a whopping 2.00%. A key factor for the US Dollar will now be the Chairman’s comments in tonight’s press conference and the impending rate cut in December. Thereafter, investors will focus on the US inflation rate and what it would mean for the monetary policy.

From the European side, the main developments are the political tensions from Europe’s largest economy. Germany’s government has fallen into turmoil after Chancellor Olaf Scholz unexpectedly dismissed his finance minister. Christian Lindner was ousted from the three-party coalition in a high-level government meeting on Wednesday evening, following months of intense internal conflicts that have fueled the administration’s declining popularity. Experts believe Germany will also announce snap elections due to the political turmoil.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Edited November 7 by HFblogNews

HFblogNews · November 8

Date: 8th November 2024.

Can Trump Bring Oil Prices Down To $40? NASDAQ Renews Its Highs!

The NASDAQ, Dow Jones and SNP500 continue to renew their all time highs for a second consecutive day.
NVIDIA tops the NASDAQ as the most influential stock, surpassing Apple and Microsoft.
Crude Oil prices break below the ascending triangle pattern as investors closely monitor any signals from President-elect Trump on how he plans to bring oil prices down.
The Federal Reserve indicates that it will keep lowering interest rates but plans to pause for an extended period at a certain point.

NASDAQ – The NASDAQ Continues To Renew Price Highs!

The NASDAQ continues to increase in value and renew its all time high for a second consecutive day. This week the index has risen 5.70% and investors are contemplating if the index will retrace this Friday due to the large impulse wave. However, investors will be looking for larger downward momentum before determining whether a retracement throughout the day is possible.

One of this week’s best performing stocks for the NASDAQ which is gaining more momentum and attention is Tesla. During the presidential race, Elon Musk, the company’s CEO, endorsed Trump’s candidacy, contributing $75 million to his campaign. In return, Donald Trump pledged to appoint Musk to lead the Commission on Government Efficiency, which oversees budget expenditures. This appointment would enable Tesla Inc. and Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) to secure new contracts. Over the past decade, collaboration with the government has brought the company $15.4 billion.

Investors continue to also evaluate the comments from the Federal Reserve on Thursday evening. At a press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that while inflation remains slightly above the 2.0% target, monetary authorities are confident it is under control. However, the growth rate of consumer prices, excluding food and energy costs, is still “somewhat elevated.” Powell added that despite the current easing of monetary policy, officials are prepared to pause if macroeconomic data suggest the need.

The Fed is also considering a scenario in which borrowing costs hold steady at current levels during its December meeting. Powell further noted that actions by the incoming government and Congress could affect the economic outlook over time, and forecasts of these impacts will be incorporated into models that assess various aspects of the US economic system.

As mentioned above, investors are taking into consideration if the price will retrace after such a strong upward trend throughout the week. However, elements do still continue to point to short term upward price movement. For example, the VIX Index continues to fall as have bond yields. The VIX index trades 3.00% lower on Friday and the 10-Year Bond Yields has fallen 37 points.

Crude Oil – Can Trump Achieve $40 Per Barrel?

The price movement of Crude Oil over the past week has formed an ascending triangle pattern. However, the support level was broken this morning after the corrective wave surpassed 1.75%.

Oil traders worry that the new US President-elect will put considerable pressure on the Chinese economy. This can potentially lead to a sharp drop in oil demand from the world’s largest importer. The EIA’s weekly report yesterday showed an increase in oil reserves by 2.149 million barrels, much higher than the expected 0.300 million barrels, with gasoline reserves rising by 0.412 million barrels and distillates by 2.947 million barrels. The decline could have been steeper, but Hurricane Rafael had closed 17% of oil production capacity in the Mexican Gulf.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · November 11

Date: 11th November 2024.

Bitcoin Skyrockets to $81k; Asian Stocks Down; Markets weigh the risk of “Trump-tariffs”.

Asia & European Sessions:

Bitcoin surged past $81,000 for the first time (94% higher for 2024), fueled by President-elect Donald Trump’s decisive victory, winning all seven US battleground states, including Arizona. The digital-asset industry, which invested over $100 million in pro-crypto candidates, celebrated the outcome.
Trump pledged to make the US a hub for digital assets, including plans for a strategic Bitcoin stockpile and appointing crypto-friendly regulators.
Dogecoin skyrocketed to highest price since 2021 (promoted by Trump supporter Elon Musk).
Japanese indexes rallied as discussions at the last BoJ meeting focused on a cautious approach to additional rate cuts.
Asian shares fell following concerns that China’s debt swap program may not be adequate, alongside data indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy. Investor sentiment is also dampened by declining foreign direct investment especially after Donald Trump’s presidential victory injected fresh uncertainty over tariffs.
China’s inflation reports were weak, reflecting further deflation in wholesale prices. China’s trade surplus is poised to reach a new record this year. If the gap between exports and imports keeps expanding at its current rate, it could approach $1 trillion, based on Bloomberg’s calculations. These are ominous signs for the economy that continues to struggle.

Financial Markets Performance:

European stock markets are mostly higher, with DAX and FTSE100 posting gains of 1.0% and 0.6% respectively.
Bond markets are closed in the US and Canada today and while equity markets are open, trading conditions are likely to be quieter than usual.
US equity futures are currently higher, led by a 0.4% rise in the NASDAQ.
The USDIndex climbed back above 105.
EURUSD drifts to 1.069 and GBPUSD retests once again a break below 1.2900.
The USDJPY rebounds and extends again to 153.60 for the first time since July.
Oil prices steadied at $70 lows following their largest drop in nearly 2 weeks, pressured by a weak outlook in China. Crude traders are considering global demand prospects for 2025, potential impacts from Donald Trump’s presidential win, and geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. A global surplus is expected next year, and influential outlooks, including OPEC’s report on Tuesday, are anticipated.
Gold remains under pressure, as the US election outcome boosted the US Dollar and prompted a reversal of haven flows. The precious metal is currently trading at $2669 per ounce, slightly above the lows seen in the aftermath of the election and before the Fed cut rates.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · November 12

Date: 12th November 2024.

Market Buzz: Trump Trade Impact!

“Trump trade” has boosted the US Dollar and US stocks, but Trump’s policies may have less favorable effects on global assets. Trump’s plan to raise tariffs is expected to negatively impact economies worldwide, especially exporters like China.

Asia & European Sessions:

Bitcoin Surge! Bitcoin broke $90K, driven by Trump trade once again. Bitcoin is up roughly 110% in 2024, helped by robust demand for dedicated US ETFs, interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and Trump’s cryptofriendly agenda.
Crypto market capitalization has exceeded its pandemic-era peak, reaching $3.1 trillion. Traders are betting on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end, according to data from the Deribit exchange.
Open interest — or outstanding contracts — for CME Group Inc. futures for Bitcoin and second-ranked Ether (ETHUSD) scaled records on Monday, a sign of growing engagement by US institutional investors.
Asian shares dropped, alongside European and US equity futures, as traders evaluated the implications of President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda and potential cabinet choices. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for a third consecutive day, driven by rising Treasury yields amid concerns that Trump’s proposed tax cuts could increase inflation.
There are also reports that Trump is considering two individuals for prominent roles in his administration with track records of criticizing China.
DAX and FTSE100 are down -1.1% and -0.5% respectively, after a pickup in German HICP inflation and higher than expected UK wage growth dampened easing expectations.
Investors await the US CPI report for insights into the Fed’s easing path, as Trump’s inflationary policies may lead to fewer rate cuts.

Financial Markets Performance:

The USDIndex continues to rise and is currently at 105.75. It hit a 1-year high.
EURUSD drifts to 1.0620 and GBPUSD is in a sell off, currently at 1.2800.
Oil prices fell after their biggest 2-week decline, amid a weak demand outlook from China, a stronger US Dollar, and concerns over a potential oversupply.
Crude oil has traded within a narrow range since mid-last month, influenced by Middle East tensions, the US election, and OPEC+ output decisions.
Gold remains under pressure and is currently at just $2604.36 per ounce. It hit a one-month low, down 5% since Trump’s election victory, as a strong dollar and US equity rotation pressured the metal. Gold’s decline was also technical, breaking below the 50-day moving average, causing funds to cover long positions. Despite recent drops, gold remains up 25% for the year, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · Wednesday at 09:39 AM

Date: 13th November 2024.

Stocks Cautious Amid Upcoming US CPI & Yen Pressures.

Asia & European Sessions:

Stock markets are turning cautious as markets prepare for Trump’s presidency. Growing concern that tariffs will disrupt global trade and fuel inflation has been denting sentiment.
Indexes declined and Japan and Hong Kong, European markets are posting modest gains and US futures are in the red, as yields rise.
Wall Street stumbled as the Trump trade ran out of steam after 5 straight days of gains on the S&P500 and Dow, along with 4 days of gains on the NASDAQ to more record highs.

The Yen weakened beyond 155 against the US Dollar for the first time since July, raising concerns that Japan might intervene in the currency market to curb its depreciation. A Bloomberg poll of 53 economists last month suggested intervention could be triggered at 150, with a median forecast of 160.
A spike in Treasury yields is pressuring the Yen, with the two-year yield hitting its highest mark since July, driven by Trump’s economic agenda boosting US rates and the reduced cost of hedging due to the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts.
The upcoming US data on CPI, PPI, and Retail sales could accelerate the Yen’s decline if the Ministry of Finance doesn’t step in with verbal warnings. Prolonged yen weakness may push the Bank of Japan to consider earlier rate hikes.
Concerns over sticky high inflation ahead of the CPI report and concerns over potentially inflationary aspects of Trump’s fiscal policies exacerbated selling.

Financial Markets Performance:

The USDIndex is settling above 106.
Oil declined -0.09% to $67.98 per barrel with Trump’s “drill baby drill” reverberating.
Gold lost -0.82% to $2597.26 per ounce as interest rates surged. The rising Dollar also impacted commodities.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · Friday at 10:21 AM

Date: 15th November 2024.

Treasuries cheapen slightly, Wall Street slips after Powell’s remarks.

In the US session, the comments from Fed Chair Powell suggesting the FOMC might be pausing rate cuts weighed on Treasuries and Wall Street, keeping the US Dollar firm. Powell said the data are not showing the need for the FOMC to hurry with rate cuts. His remarks followed on the heels of the stronger than expected PPI and jobless claims data.

Asia & European Sessions:

US: Producer prices exceeded expectations, and jobless claims hit their lowest since May. Policymakers called for caution on rate cuts amid strong economic performance, lingering inflation, and market uncertainty.
Equity Futures Decline in US and Europe: Futures for Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.7%, and S&P500 contracts extended losses after the benchmark declined 0.6%.
Asian markets, in contrast, saw gains, with MSCI’s regional index rising on signs of economic resilience in China.
China’s retail sales grew at their fastest pace in eight months, although the CSI 300 Index fell.
Emerging markets equities were set for their worst week since June 2022, while emerging markets currencies neared year-to-date losses.
US automakers like Tesla and Rivian dropped on reports that Trump might remove the $7,500 EV tax credit.Walt Disney shares surged after reporting better-than-expected profits.
Bitcoin slid back to $87k territory, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there was no need to hurry interest-rate cuts. That left the token about $6,500 below a record high set on Wednesday. Markets seem to be cooling down at the end of the week.
On the geopolitical front, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed interest in resolving the conflict with Ukraine. This announcement came alongside President Trump’s endorsement of peaceful solutions, raising market hopes for a ceasefire and potential economic recovery in Eastern Europe. Analysts noted that an end to the conflict could spur economic activity and increase demand for cryptocurrency services.
MicroStrategy made a significant $2 billion acquisition, adding nearly 25,000 BTC to its reserves. Institutional investments like these are seen as potentially stabilizing Bitcoin’s volatility and enhancing liquidity.

Financial Markets Performance:

The US Dollar was set to gain over 1.4% for the week despite a slight drop on Friday. Gains were driven by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments about a gradual approach to rate cuts.
The Yen recovered following Japan’s Finance Minister’s statement on monitoring the forex market. It is currently at 155.75.
Oil headed for a weekly loss, impacted by a stronger Dollar and oversupply concerns for next year.
Gold remained near a 2-month low. Bullion is currently at $2567, as the USDIndex remains on an uptrend and flirts with the 107 level. The precious metal is still around 25% higher than a year ago. Silver is once again underperforming and copper, and steel prices are also falling as markets weigh the impact of weak Chinese growth.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · 2024-11-18T10:41:14Z

Date: 18th November 2024.

Monday Market Analysis and the Week Ahead!

The NASDAQ inches up ahead of NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report. NVIDIA will release their earnings report on Wednesday.
Analysts expect NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share to rise from $0.68 to $0.74 and Revenue to rise by $3 billion.
The US Dollar remains strong as investors contemplate whether the Federal Reserve will pause in December. The Fed Chairman advises the US economy remains strong and the employment sector stable.
The GBP was the best-performing currency in the Asian session, but will this continue as London starts trading?

NASDAQ – Investors Turn Their Attention To NVIDIA Earnings!

The NASDAQ fell for 5 consecutive days last week due to the US consumer and producer inflation striking fear amongst investors. The US inflation rate rose from 2.4% to 2.6% and the producer inflation from 1.9% to 2.4%. In addition to this the Federal Reserve advises the US economy remains strong and the employment sector stable. As a result, only 65% of investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, particularly lower than the previous weeks.

Though, certain key events could prompt higher demand and investors to contemplate buying the NASDAQ at the lower price. The higher demand is also in line with what many price theories would suggest. The NASDAQ’s average resistance point from October is at $20,511.29. The price has now dropped below this level and many price theories indicate that a retracement will end around this price. However, analysts would also urge investors to consider what else will drive investors to buy, not solely the price.

For this reason, investors will be closely watching NVIDIA’s Quarterly Earnings Report on Wednesday. NVIDIA is the NASDAQ’s most influential stock holding a weight of 8.69% and is already up 0.52% in pre-hours trading. The market expects NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share to rise from $0.68 to $0.74 and Revenue to rise by $3 billion. If the company beats these expectations, the stock is likely to rise and can support the NASDAQ. On Monday, investors will keep this in mind while trading.

Besides the upcoming earnings report investors are also monitoring the volatility in the Bond Market and the VIX Index. Bond yields continue to rise which is a concern for the stock market. The US 10 Year Treasury is up 14 points, however, the VIX index is 1.45% lower which is known to be positive. Buyers will be hoping for the VIX to remain low and for bond yields to drop. Whereas, sellers will be hoping for bond yields to rise further and the VIX to correct back upwards.

GBPUSD – Will The Cable Retrace After A Seven-Day Decline?

The GBPUSD has declined for seven consecutive days which is a price movement which has not happened before in 2024. In addition to this, the exchange rate has fallen back to the support level from June and August 2024. Therefore investors are considering whether the GBPUSD will retrace slightly higher on Monday. A retracement in the short term could potentially take the price to the resistance level at 1.26810 or 1.27190.

A retracement is possible according to analysts as the GBP is the best performing currency of the day and due to the low price. In addition to this, the US Dollar is not expected to be influenced by any economic releases until Friday, when the US as well as the UK will release their Purchasing Managers’ Index, whereas the UK will release the Monetary Policy Report tomorrow morning and their Retail Sales within the week.

In terms of potential areas to consider speculating a buy, some traders may take into consideration the breakout level at 1.26270 or once 65% of the previous swing has been made. This would be at the 1.26314 price.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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