[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II

[CandleWhisperer 10]

Thanks Eiger - but, in the past, when db put up similar 'wycoff' explanations in this thread you SCREAMed !!! Please watch the double standards...

 

I continue to (LOL)

 

Here's the link to the ask any wyckoff related question thread:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/131/ask-any-wyckoff-related-question-3879-11.html#post49420

[jjthetrader 10]

Thanks Eiger - but, in the past, when db put up similar 'wycoff' explanations in this thread you SCREAMed !!! Please watch the double standards...

 

I disagree with zdo. Wyckoff is the basis of VSA and Eiger mixes them both together (two sides of the same coin). Db however does not care to speak of "VSA".

Eiger, keep up the good work. I lurk on this thread just to read your posts.

 

Eigers a saint to put up with you guys who participate on the negative side of the 'crock or not' thread and then come here and ask his opinion. Give him a break or at least some praise.

[zdo 20]

Eiger has my admiration and appreciation for providing excellent VSA (and s&d ) posts.

He has also 'pitched fits' when db provided the same kind of content he just posted...just calling him on double standard...

[Eiger 10]

That is simply not true. The complaints were for constantly derailing this thread off topic and for constantly arguing about the putative flaws in VSA. It got to be quite boring, unconstructive, and totally unproductive. I have always traded with Wyckoff methods and was trained and mentored by a Wyckoff expert. I have also made many posts to this thread regarding Wyckoff, Wyckoff methods, and Wyckoff sources. You can verify this for yourself by reviewing prior posts. Hopefully, that will provide you with some clarity, disabuse you of the incorrect notion that I operate with double standards, and we won't be rehasing old ground from a "new" perspective.

 

Eiger

 

PS - Nice to see you again, JJ

[Eiger 10]

Lots sdewds

[DbPhoenix 42]

Actually, the comment was something along the lines of "VSA has nothing to do with Wyckoff", which is largely true since each takes an entirely different view of the market.

 

But, as suggested, one can review old posts if one is interested. Most of them are still here.

[Sledge 13]

Eigers a saint to put up with you guys who participate on the negative side of the 'crock or not' thread and then come here and ask his opinion. Give him a break or at least some praise.

 

 

I'm not sure if I have ever done it before, but for all the lull times in this thread, the bantering, the bashing, the B.S.- EIGER is the one who has kept it going. He is the one that just when you think this "thread is dead" Eiger comes out and makes a brilliant post to show another example of what he studies, uses to trade, and explains it for those who may not be anywhere near his level of expertise.

 

He must live by the "pay it forward" mentality. He could just as easily sit at his PC, make a ton of cash all day and keep the years of hard work it took for him to get to his level of mastery to himself. Instead he shares what he can with anyone who asks. He takes the time to answer questions for folks who ask.

 

Long of the short- even if VSA isn't for you, you gotta admire a guy who would do what he does for the thread and for the VSA camp and doesn't ask for a thing in return!

 

My hat is off to you Gary!

Sledge

[winnie 10]

I agree with you. Eiger has nothing to return. He is really helpful. If you do not like VSA or his method, just skip this and find method which you feel comfortable and no need to complaint him.

 

Thanks

 

 

I'm not sure if I have ever done it before, but for all the lull times in this thread, the bantering, the bashing, the B.S.- EIGER is the one who has kept it going. He is the one that just when you think this "thread is dead" Eiger comes out and makes a brilliant post to show another example of what he studies, uses to trade, and explains it for those who may not be anywhere near his level of expertise.

 

He must live by the "pay it forward" mentality. He could just as easily sit at his PC, make a ton of cash all day and keep the years of hard work it took for him to get to his level of mastery to himself. Instead he shares what he can with anyone who asks. He takes the time to answer questions for folks who ask.

 

Long of the short- even if VSA isn't for you, you gotta admire a guy who would do what he does for the thread and for the VSA camp and doesn't ask for a thing in return!

 

My hat is off to you Gary!

Sledge

[winnie 10]

After using VSA, I know more about the market and feel it is not random move. However, I would like to ask all your expert, do you really sit all the day in the chair and focus 100% ? How to keep your focus ?

I am living in Asia, it is mid-night during the afternoon of the US market, sometime I feel tired and lost focus,this is a hard problem. any suggestion to solve ?

thanks

[kuky969 10]

NOBODY HAS THE RIGHT ATTACK TO EIGER . Please respect him as man who made most for this thread. All remaining things are unimportant.

[kuky969 10]

Please Eiger could you write a few words to my contribution number. 1573 please ???

[tawe trader 10]

However, I would like to ask all your expert, do you really sit all the day in the chair and focus 100% ? How to keep your focus ?

 

Ha ha Winnie .......... now you are asking the million dollar question.

 

I believe rock-solid focus and discipline is one of the main reasons why so few traders consistently win at trading and make regular profits ?

 

Lack of focus (especially when tired) leads to sloppy decisions, mistakes and losses. I know, lack of focus is the biggest cause of losses to my trading account. Lack of focus can also occur after a good couple of wins, when I become over-confident and sloppy.

 

There could be hundreds of VSA/Wykcoff experts and followers just from this thread but only the ones who can really focus day in day out and have the discipline to adhere to VSA/Wykcoff rules, will eventually succeed. VSA/Wykcoff will give you a technical 'edge' but without the focus and discipline to go along with it, trading will still be a non-event.

 

How do we learn to become focused ?? I don't really know (perhaps others who follow this thread may know) but each evening and following morning I make a mental note to try and concentrate and focus on the mkts and not get distracted and sidetracked. I am learning everyday to try and to focus more and become more patient while waiting for the right setup.

 

The thing that's the killer in trading (which doesn't seem to affect other occupations), is that you can be 100% focused and disciplined Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and in good profit after the four days but it will only take a moment of ill-discipline and lack of focus on a Friday morning to end up with a big loss and the possiblility of giving back nearly a weeks gains. :crap:

 

Perhaps just being aware that you need to be completely focused at all times is a big positive step and if you not focused or can't focus, then stand aside and don't attempt to trade that hour/day.

 

I see a lot of top traders are ex-armed forces, which I guess gives us a clue to what's required to be a successful trader. ie the training they received in the area of discipline and focusing when under pressure, during quiet times and when overtired etc.

 

We see hundreds of adverts for trading courses, seminars etc but how many focus/discipline seminars for traders do we see ? not many - eh ?

 

Just my thoughts

Tawe

.

[HAKUNA 10]

Actually, the comment was something along the lines of "VSA has nothing to do with Wyckoff", which is largely true since each takes an entirely different view of the market.

 

But, as suggested, one can review old posts if one is interested. Most of them are still here.

 

IMHO Both have something useful to offer to the trader, why not take best of both worlds and leave it at that.

 

Infact the VSA /TG are holding a one day course at the Golden Gate University, SF, California, in Nov, "The Wyckoff Way", so really there is no fundamental clash.

 

I have benefited from both, many thanks to the excellent posts in VSA thread and also on the Wyckoff Forum and Dbphoenix Blog. Would love to see the Wyckoff threads in action, will post some Nasdaq charts for comments, hope they will not be brushed aside with any cryptic remarks:)

 

HAKUNA MATATA:)

[Head2k 10]

After using VSA, I know more about the market and feel it is not random move. However, I would like to ask all your expert, do you really sit all the day in the chair and focus 100% ? How to keep your focus ?

I am living in Asia, it is mid-night during the afternoon of the US market, sometime I feel tired and lost focus,this is a hard problem. any suggestion to solve ?

thanks

I would say dont push yourself too hard. Take breaks. If you know you are too tired after midnight trade only morning session, take a break during lunch time and then watch the afternoon session, but do not trade it. Once you are more confident in your trading you can add to your trading time. Just an idea...

[tawe trader 10]

No Selling Pressure:

 

A narrow range or wide range bar with volume less than the previous two bars that closes down from the previous bar. Generally, strength enters ( or shows itself) on down bars.

 

No Supply:

 

A narrow range bar with volume less than the previous two bars that closes down from the previous bar. With the next bar up.

 

Therefore, ALL No Supply bars are No Selling Pressure bars, but not all No Selling pressure bars are No Supply bars.

 

Many thanks to CW's (post #1564) for the above.

 

When I first started out with VSA, I tended to solely wait for an ultra high volume bar ie strength / weakness and successfully confirmed before entering. This is great and works well but I have also noticed that a very low volume bar can also give powerful 'clues'.

 

Take todays action (about an hour ago) on the 7 min chart of the FTSE. The mkt is well up and acting bullish.

 

At 12.47pm (green arrow) we have a down bar after a pullback from the highs on the days lowest volume, so far. Following what CW has recently highlighted, we can see we have no selling pressure / no supply. ie pro's not interested in lower prices.

 

The next bar closed up and it was followed by a test / shake-out bar before a quick 50 pt rally to an even higher level.

 

By waiting and watching through the trading day for both very high volume and very low volume (followed by a successful test), it doubles the potential for low risk trades.

 

Tawe

.

[Eiger 10]

This is continuation of Tasuki chart 15 min E-min SP

 

Eigers great contribution inspired me to this analysis

 

Market is oversold (under demand line ) but I not sure if is this line corerrectly draw.

 

area A green ...is climax -- heaviest volume from starting the trend , good acceleration in downtrend

 

area B continuation of down but poor volume -- expect of test

 

bar number 1 ... I call it TEST but in high volume ,next market go a bit up

bar number 2 .... I call it TEST on low volume (of last 3 bars) and less then previously test

 

 

next up move was about 90 points , on heavist volume from previous rallies in downtrend and short time .

 

 

I think this is signs of strength and we could go up as correction. WHAT DO YOU THINK PLEASE EIGER ???

 

Thank you.

 

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1223891744_94_UploadImage.png

 

Sorry, I didn't see this earlier. I re-did the charts to make it easier to see.

 

Before starting, a warm thank-you for all the recent posts. I love Wyckoff and I love VSA, and I love being a student of both. As you know, I do not see meaningful distinctions between them and find arguing about it quite silly. I also love doing these charts - I do them every day, and i am always learning something new. It is nice to see that they are useful to others, too. More important, is it is nice to see others posting charts.

 

Background:

 

First, we need to start with the background -- always, we want to start with the background. I emphasize the background for two primary reasons:

1. It gives us the context for the current day
   
2. When we have the background in mind, we can compare things like volume, spread, size, length and duration of swings, etc.
   

 

Looking at the 45-minute chart, You can see that we fell through the ice or support at 1. Note that we gapped lower (day session data). This is simply the reverse of pushing up and through resistance. Professionals did not want to have to absorb shorts covering who got short early over 5 days of trading range when driving the market lower. Volume increases to the downside.

 

Parallel trend lines were drawn to help frame the trend. A Supply Line was drawn from A & B. A parallel Demand Line was draw off C.

 

At 2, the market is Oversold - meaning it had dropped well below the Demand Line. At 2, massive volume enters the picture. It is the highest volume on the chart. The spread is wide, was a gap down opening but closes on its highs. Large, professional traders stepped in and bought. The public was selling. So we have an oversold position, the widest spread in the downtrend and the highest volume in the downtrend, closing on its highs. This is climactic action.

 

Note how using the background we can compare spreads, volumes, position in trend channel, etc.

 

The 15-minute Chart:

 

The climactic action at 2 is even more obvious on the 15-minute chart. The bar closes on its highs. Note the next bar, however. It is a down bar, indicating supply is still in the market (as we might expect given general conditions anyway). Usually, a down bar after a climactic bar indicates further testing is needed or supply remains dominate and another wave down is possible.

 

As the market reacts down at 3 into the high supply seen on 2 we see spreads narrow and most importantly, volume dries up. At 4, the down wave is completed, and the market starts to move up. Note the character of this up move. Volume falls off on the rally and the bars show narrow spreads and generally poor closes. The spreads on this little rally are narrower than the down wave at 3 - not very bullish.

 

The next reaction (5) shows volume drying up. Compared to the previous downwave at 3 and even the rally after 4, it is very low volume. Supply appears exhausted at this point as we are back into the area of supply seen at 2 without drawing further supply; it confirms the climactic action at 2 and indicates strength.

 

At 6 the market dips below the low at 4 and immediately springs back above that low and closes just off its high - bullish. The next bar is up with good spread and volume - bullish. Two bars later at 7, price dips back down and volume is less than the previous two bars indicating No Supply. The spread on 7 is a bit wide, though, and the close is on the lows. Note the next two bars after 7 - they are low volume with fairly narrow spreads and mid-range closes. Importantly, both bars dipped below the low at 7 and closed back above the support line drawn off 4. This is the true Test of the Spring seen at 6. Price is now on what Wyckoff called the Springboard.

 

So as a recap, we have:

1. SOS in the immediate background (climactic action at an Oversold position)
   
2. Volume recedes on the first reaction (3) back into the high volume (supply) area (2)
   
3. Another reaction (5) on narrow spreads and low, low volume - supply has been exhausted
   
4. A Spring at 6
   
5. A successful Test of the Spring and a Sprinboard position
   

 

The market rallies vigorously away from the danger point on wide spreads, strong closes and expanding volume. Note that the rally stops at the larger time frame Supply Line.

 

At 9, the market reacts and volume dries up.

 

Overall, a very bullish picture

 

One other thing to note. The activity between the climax at 2 and the reaction at 9 has given professionals an opportunity to accumulate. The amount of accumulation, if studied under a point & figure chart, can help indicate the size of the next move. In general, though, when you see a good sideways line like this, the odds of the subsequent move being pretty good is high. Such a move will usually offer other opportunities to enter. For a good example of this, go back to the 45-minute chart and look at the down move that occurred as a result of the sideways line from September 29 through October 3. On this and other charts, you will see that the market builds causes for the next move in the congestion areas, and the market tends to move from congestion to trending and back again.

 

Hope this is helpful,

 

Eiger

[CandleWhisperer 10]

Many thanks to CW's (post #1564) for the above.

 

When I first started out with VSA, I tended to solely wait for an ultra high volume bar ie strength / weakness and successfully confirmed before entering. This is great and works well but I have also noticed that a very low volume bar can also give powerful 'clues'.

 

Take todays action (about an hour ago) on the 7 min chart of the FTSE. The mkt is well up and acting bullish.

 

At 12.47pm (green arrow) we have a down bar after a pullback from the highs on the days lowest volume, so far. Following what CW has recently highlighted, we can see we have no selling pressure / no supply. ie pro's not interested in lower prices.

 

The next bar closed up and it was followed by a test / shake-out bar before a quick 50 pt rally to an even higher level.

 

By waiting and watching through the trading day for both very high volume and very low volume (followed by a successful test), it doubles the potential for low risk trades.

 

Tawe

.

 

Thanks. With all the love for Eiger, I was just about ready to take my ball and go home. :o Just kidding.

 

If you watch the TG videos, they are now making the statement that "Markets move on Supply and Demand, and they also move on No Supply and No Demand".

 

While there are climatic action bars that happen on high volume (Stopping volume, end of a rising market), most of the ideal entry points come on low volume (No Demands or Tests).

 

And as Eiger pointed out, Low volume up bars after weakness confirm that weakness even when they are not No Demand bars themselves. Of course, the converse would be true; Low volume down bars after strength confirm that strength even when they are not No Supply bars themselves.

 

That bar in your chart is a great example of a "No Selling Pressure bar". Since it is not a narrow range bar, it is not technically a No Supply bar, but the lack of selling enthusiasm by the BBs is never the less still evident.

 

What matters most from a practical standpoint is, do we see volume less than the previous two bars?

[winnie 10]

It is a good way to enter market at low volume bar. However, is any suggestion how to put stop loss ? It is reasonable to place stop a few ticks above the low volume bar high or low ?

 

Thanks for all experts

[tawe trader 10]

Winnie,

 

Most of the time I personally use mental stops. Sometimes I will use a stop, but a very wide one, to give the mkt room. As you can see from my recent post #1590, that the mkt had a bit of shake-out two bars after the no selling pressure bar. If I had a resting stop-loss of say 5 pts below the low of the selling pressure bar, it would have been hit.

 

Many thanks to CW for confirming the low volume bar in the FTSE chart as a no selling bar.

 

Thanks. With all the love for Eiger, I was just about ready to take my ball and go home. Just kidding.

 

CW, there's plenty of love to go around

 

Also we regard to the recent bickering (again) on this thread between the VSA and Wyckoff followers/traders, I can't see how we can't all be one big happy price + volume family .......... let's have a big group hug and love-in :o

 

At the end of the day, we are here to further our trading education, try and master the art of trading, make a few pts and pips and not wind each other up. :helloooo:

 

Tawe

[CandleWhisperer 10]

It is a good way to enter market at low volume bar. However, is any suggestion how to put stop loss ? It is reasonable to place stop a few ticks above the low volume bar high or low ?

 

Thanks for all experts

 

Great question.

 

Currently there is a poll in the Market Profile section that is based on the Trade Maven 3-2-1 method. The poll asks, which is correct:

 

Rule#1: High Volume = S/R

 

Rule#2: Low Volume= Price Attractor

 

Rule#3: MoMs

 

VSA would say the answers are not correct.

 

Rule#1: Very High to Ultra High Volume BOTH acts as a price attractor and then as S/R levels. This is why you see many VSAers place lines from the high and the close of a Up bar on ultra high volume. They place lines on the close and the low of a down bar. Future price action tends to re-visit these areas. This is a way of "looking left to trade right".

 

Rule#2: Low Volume tends to repel price. Low volume represents a cessation of activity by the BBs. If they are not interested in higher prices at the moment than the path of least resistance is down.

 

Think about an ideal No Demand bar. It would not only be narrow and have volume less than the previous two bars, but it would close in the middle or low of the bar. Assume the close is the low. Now price is moved up to and no buyers are found and the interval trades back down to close on the low. Price then should show immediate results to the down side as higher prices were rejected.

 

The opposite is true with a test. The BBs take price lower and find no supply (sellers) and price then closes on the high of the bar. Price is expected to show immediate result in the form of moving higher. Hence the low volume acts to repel price.

 

If that is indeed the case, placing a stop 1-2 tics just above/below a low volume signal would be an ideal location for a stop.

[winnie 10]

Very clear and very useful . Thanks for your kind help.

Winnie:thumbs up:

[winnie 10]

Dear All experts,

I have one simple question to ask. In no demand and no supply bar, we need the volume less than previous two. For testing bar, do we also need the volume lower than previous two and range are narrow ?

 

Thanks for your advise

Winnie:helloooo:

[winnie 10]

Dear all experts,

 

If we see narrow spread and high volume bar in an up trend with an up close, thus this mean it is a weakness signal in the background ?

 

Thanks

[CandleWhisperer 10]

Dear All experts,

I have one simple question to ask. In no demand and no supply bar, we need the volume less than previous two. For testing bar, do we also need the volume lower than previous two and range are narrow ?

 

Thanks for your advise

Winnie:helloooo:

 

While the question says experts, I will give it a shot never the less.

 

" Testing is by far the most important of the low volume signals"

 

" Testing is a good sign of strength (as long as you have strength in the background). Usually, a successful test (on low volume) tells you that the market is ready to rise immediately, whilst a higher volume test usually results in a temporary up-move, and will be subject to a re-rest of the same price area again at a later time."

 

"Any down-move dipping into an area of previous selling (previous high volume level), which then regains to close on, or near the high, on lower volume, is a loud and clear indication to expect higher prices immediately."

 

Tom Williams, Master The Markets,pgs. 34-35.

 

The ideal test will be a narrow range bar that closes down from the previous bar on volume less than the previous two bars and closes on its high. There are, however, many types of tests that while not ideal are tests none the less.

 

Take a look at the chart below. I have identified several tests to talk about. Let's start with the last one and work our way backwards.

 

D: Test in a rising market. We see a candle that is equal range to greater range than the previous candle. It closes near its high and down from the previous candle. But check out the volume. While it is greater than the previous candle, it is low in relation to most of the candles that precede it.

 

C: This is the key test. Notice first that we had Strength (demand) enter on a wide spread down candle on very high volume that closed off its lows. Now notice that the test candle trades down into that range and does this on volume less than the previous two bars. This is a low volume signal within the range of a high volume bar. While the close in not on the high, it is roughly in the middle of the range. And also note that the candle is wider than the previous candle. Simply, not everything about this candle would meet our ideal definition of a test, but this is a test. It is the test.

 

B: Narrow range candle with volume less than the previous two bars , closing near its high. But it closes UP not Down from the previous candle. That not withstanding, this is a test. Note how the market jumps immediately after this test. Why a test here? Two candles earlier there is a No Demand. If a large contingent of BBs is not interested in higher prices, the BBs who are need to see if there is supply still left in the market. How do they see? A test.

Again, note that we do not close down here but rather up.

 

A: Narrow range candle closing near its highs, but with volume that is NOT less than the previous two bars. We see this type of test very often. Directly after seeing a low volume sign (No Demand or No Buying Pressure), we get a test as the BBs who are interested in higher prices check to see why the other BBs are standing aside. How do we know they are standing aside? The volume is low.

[winnie 10]

Very clear and detail ! thanks for your kind help:thumbs up: