[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II

[mike_ITL 10]

Hi Eiger,

 

that's exactly what I was thinking when this pattern happened: "I'm not going to miss this one: I have to take position". Obviously I took the wrong one.

 

I find your suggestion wise: I will incorporate this rule into my trading plan ... it may make me lose some tick because of the delay in entering position, however I'll hopefully be positioned better!

 

As for the routine, I like to have a checklist: it helps me stay focused and makes me feel like I've done preliminary work and I'm in the position of searching opportunities in the market.

 

Kind regards,

 

Mike

[Sledge 13]

Thank you so much Tawe!

 

I have some difficulties in widening my view also to background, as I tend to concentrate onlu on the last few bars.

 

Really like a lot this thread, please keep it up!

 

Have a great day,

 

Mike

 

Mike-

Try this- it helped me a ton:

Zoom Out the chart (i.e. if you are looking at 50 bars- look at 200)

AND

Look at a longer timeframe! Try a 4 hour or daily view to get a full view of the trading horizon.

 

I went from a "what does this one bar say" to looking at the whole picture. It literally opened my eyes to more trading opportunity and bigger pip grabbing!

 

Good Luck!

Aaron

[Sledge 13]

 

Charts Mr. Sledge You say: Well of course. I'll make this random and only let you know this is a 1 Hr Chart. You should have enough background information to make decisions. I'll post the "Answer" charts after we get rolling.

 

This has always been a subject that as a VSA fly on the wall, seems to be overlooked or sort of "won't talk about" Which is fine- that is why all of you are here and may have insight of your own- with your own trading style, and Money Management.

 

Here are a few charts to get your juices flowing- Take the charts and save them- mark them up, this is your "live edge" of the chart- so what would you do with it?:

 

Sledge

 

Ok well, I didn't get the number of responses I had hoped for from post 1188, but I want to post the "answers" for anyone who may come upon this at a later date. Here are the charts that have the "answers" to where to place your Entry.

Aaron

 

 

 

 

[Eiger 10]

Hi Eiger,

 

that's exactly what I was thinking when this pattern happened: "I'm not going to miss this one: I have to take position". Obviously I took the wrong one.

 

I find your suggestion wise: I will incorporate this rule into my trading plan ...

 

 

Mike

 

Actually, you are the wise one. Most traders spend most of their time and effort studying charts and trying to improve their technical skills. That's a good thing. But, few spend much time and effort working on themselves. That's not such a good thing.

 

I say you are wise because you have identified a limitation, figured out how to adjust for it, and then you put it into your plan. You will only improve as a trader by doing this.

 

What you are doing is a simple, but highly effective way to improve. Here is a little more to consider. First, write stuff down. Keep a journal and write things that are meaningful. Don't just complain, (e.g., "Agh! Another losing trade; I'll never get this."); that kind of writing is rather useless. Be specific about your trading behavior, and include thoughts and feelings. Then, after a while, look for patterns that have a negative impact on your trading, like jumping in because of impatience. This is a "current limitation." Be excited! You've now found something you can work on to get better (how else are you going to improve?). Next, devise a workable plan to neutralize the limitation or even turn it into a strength. Put this into your trading plan and then track your progress on it. Write about it in your journal, and make any adjustments that might be needed.

 

This is the bare bones of how to use your journal and trading plan to help yourself improve. You have to be your own coach in a lot of ways. That means you have to be able to step back and observe (think witness) your own behaviour. Hard to do, but the journaling can really help.

 

OK, enough trading psychology. This is, after all, the VSA thread

 

Hope this is helpful,

 

Eiger

[Sledge 13]

What you are doing is a simple, but highly effective way to improve. Here is a little more to consider. First, write stuff down. Keep a journal and write things that are meaningful. Don't just complain, (e.g., "Agh! Another losing trade; I'll never get this."); that kind of writing is rather useless. Be specific about your trading behavior, and include thoughts and feelings. Then, after a while, look for patterns that have a negative impact on your trading, like jumping in because of impatience. This is a "current limitation." Be excited! You've now found something you can work on to get better (how else are you going to improve?). Next, devise a workable plan to neutralize the limitation or even turn it into a strength. Put this into your trading plan and then track your progress on it. Write about it in your journal, and make any adjustments that might be needed.

 

This is the bare bones of how to use your journal and trading plan to help yourself improve. You have to be your own coach in a lot of ways. That means you have to be able to step back and observe (think witness) your own behaviour. Hard to do, but the journaling can really help.

 

 

Eiger-

This is great advice for ANYONE reading. Some people think "A Journal?- isn't that like High School?" Well let me tell you. I have kept a trade journal from day 1 and it is a wonderful thing to have. I not only place my trades in it, my targets, my reasons for taking the trade and why I exited.

BUT

I also brainstorm ideas in it. I test trading theories, put down a frustration or two, backtest, and backtesting results on theories. I was reading through it about a month ago and said on a few items "HA I can't believe I tried THAT!" I also go back and look at my "frustrations" and make updated notes on them in the margin. Thankfully, I have been able to update them 100% of the time with "Overcame as of X date" or "Have made great strides on accomplishing this- still working on it."

 

I suggest to anyone who trades to know WHY they are in a trade, learn from their mistakes- believe me I have printouts of days I got murdered. I printed the chart- asked questions here in this forum, and won't make them again!

 

Enough rambling from me!

Aaron

[tawe trader 10]

OK, enough trading psychology. This is, after all, the VSA thread

 

Eiger,

 

Please keep your psychology observations coming. I am very grateful for them and I am well aware that you are an expert in this field.

 

Being a proficient VSA'er is nothing without having the right mental make-up to go along with it, IMO this is where the trading holy grail can be found. ie combining the technical skills of VSA (or Wykcoff) with a sound and robust trading mindset.

 

As you know the 'edge' is inside our head and everyday (well for me anyway) it is a constant battle between our basic emotions of fear, greed, impatience etc.

 

I guess that if psychology didn't matter in this business, every person who has bought Tradeguider software over the years would now be a multi-millionaire trader.

 

Regards

Tawe

[Sledge 13]

Eiger,

Please keep your psychology observations coming.

 

I second this. I don't see much discussions about trading psychology here. But Psychology is AT LEAST 50% of trading- I personally think it is much higher. If you can master the "mechanics of trading" (reading a chart and what it tells you) then you must master your own emotions to be successful.

Been in the "Oooh Ooooh OOOOOH- awesome trade coming up- lets get in NOW" camp and learned to overcome that- but it was tough!

 

Maybe it would have to be segregated from the VSA thread (even though mechanics without psychology= frustration and loss) But this could go two ways:

We could discuss the psychology of Self

And

The psychology of the herd (and what the pro $ knows about it)

 

Just a thought!

Aaron

[mike_ITL 10]

Hi Aaron,

 

I zoomed out the chart as you kindly suggested and have the impression to have a better picture of what the market did.

 

I have also a 30' chart and a daily one, just to have support and resistance and a view of higher time frame condition.

 

Ciao,

 

Mike

[mike_ITL 10]

Hi Eiger,

 

your words incourage me to put effort in what I'm trying to accomplish.

 

What I found difficult in creating a journal, is to be synthetic when writing notes ... however, I will try to re-introduce this habit, trying to be more schematic. (I used to keep a journal, but as many other Italians, I have the tendency to be lenghty)

 

As regards trading psychology, I agree with Aaron and Tawe, please keep up the good work !

 

Have a good day!

 

Michele

[Sledge 13]

I zoomed out the chart as you kindly suggested and have the impression to have a better picture of what the market did.

 

I have also a 30' chart and a daily one, just to have support and resistance and a view of higher time frame condition.

 

Excellent- so it did help you to see the bigger picture then? If so- EXCELLENT!

Sometimes we get so close to the action we can't see the huge wall of resistance straight ahead. Glad this helped!

Aaron

[Eiger 10]

Hi Eiger,

 

What I found difficult in creating a journal, is to be synthetic when writing notes ... however, I will try to re-introduce this habit, trying to be more schematic. (I used to keep a journal, but as many other Italians, I have the tendency to be lenghty) ...

 

Michele

 

I know about being lengthy. I'm Irish, and my grandmother used to say I could talk the dogs off the meat wagon!

 

There are lots of different ways to do a journal. The best method is the one that helps you and helps you to do it consistently. Here are a few ideas for consideration:

 

• State your intention for the day. In Michele's example, it might be something like "Today, I will look left for a SOS or a SOW before I trade a VSA indication."
  
• Log every trade. In addition to entry, exit, stop, P/L, you can also add thoughts and feelings for each trade, which will later help you see patterns.
  
• At the end of the day, ask yourself specific things like:
  
  • 
    
  [*]Did I look left on every VSA indication? If not, why?
  [*]Were all trades taken with appropriate trading plan criteria? If not, why?
  [*]What did I learn from my thoughts and feelings? Was there any pattern that I noticed?
  [*]What did I learn about myself and my trading today that is important to my future performance?
  [*]What steps can I take tomorrow and in the future to improve my 1) mental/emotional skills, 2) trading skills?
   

   

The basic idea of the journal is to help you identify strengths and limitations, address the limitiations, and track your progress over time. It needn't be complicated, and you don't have to write a book. Just jot down a few specific things.

 

Anyway, just a few thoughts that might be helpful.

 

Eiger

[Eiger 10]

I second this. I don't see much discussions about trading psychology here. But Psychology is AT LEAST 50% of trading- I personally think it is much higher ... Aaron

 

I always liked Yogi Berra's take on performance psychology:

 

"Ninety percent of this game is half mental."

 

That sort of sums it up well, i think

 

Eiger

[winnie 10]

Dear sir,

I find that it is hard to use VSA method in monitor each bar. There seems to be a lot of noise in it. However, I do not know how to tail my position , after entry. Is there any suggestion ?

thanks

[mister ed 10]

Hi Winnie - perhaps if you could provide an example of the sort of thing you mean - some chart showing entry and so forth?

[Eiger 10]

I started a new thread in the psychology section called Practical Trading Psychology. Mr Ed said he will copy the recent psych posts from here over to there, and then we can continue, if you like. Thanks Mr Ed!

 

Eiger

[mister ed 10]

The new thread is located in the Trading Psychology section of the board, titled Practical Trading Psychology.

The thread is located at:

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f37/practical-trading-psychology-3901.html

 

Thanks very much for the insights Eiger and to all the contributors to this new topic - nice one!

[winnie 10]

Dear Mister Ed,

Thank for your reply. I don't know how to insert an image. Take yesterday ES 15 minutes chart as an example. My support zone is 1407-1410. When market test 1409, the down volume decline and then a up bar formed. I enter the trade at a retest with down bar with low volume. Then market go up with higher volume. However, suddenly market drop down and hit my stop point with big volume. After killing my stop , it go up again !

I know there is no holy Gail, but just want to share the idea. Hope anyone can post a 15 minutes chart of ES

[mister ed 10]

Hi Winnie - Here is the 15-minute chart (ignore the red horizontal lines they are not relevant to your question).

 

You certainly picked the support zone and entry with style! What price did you enter at, where did you place your stop, and why? What were your ideas on where to take profit? Sorry for all the questions.

 

 

 

 

p.s. Torero has posted instructions on how to upload an image into a post.

[winnie 10]

Dear Sir,

I enter at the Red Candle ,which is 3 bar left to the low. I enter because I see the volume is low when compare with the previous up bar. I think the selling pressure is not strong. Thus I enter at the close of the bar, and put my stop at the low of the day. My profit target is using "Market On Close " order as I think I should catch the day low. Then next 2 bar move up with increasing volume and suddenly the red bar hit my stop and then move up !

Thanks for your kind help

[winnie 10]

My 15 minutes chart:crap::crap:

[mister ed 10]

Thanks Winnie, good chart - what charting package is that?

 

I will give you my opinion, but let me say first there are plenty reading this thread who are much better at analysis than me, so don't take what I say as the only view, hopefully you will get more responses than just me. My ideas are not going to be strict VSA either.

 

After your entry you say you placed your stop at the day's low. I think (again, only my opinion FWIW) placing the stop a little below the day's low is probably a better idea. The day's low (so far) has already shown to have buyers (its the low...) so I would probably expect buying again there if the price dips. (Please note, placing a stop below the day's low in an example such as yours is no guarantee - there will be plenty of examples of a dip below the lows before a bounce - but not in this example).

 

As the price moved in your favour you can use VSA/Wyckoff to monitor the position, and/or candlesticks and so on. This is all in hindsight of course, and real-time its faster and more challenging; the bar I marked with an arrow is showing a test into the congestion area on the left (also marked with an arrow), A test lower from here should not be a big surprise. On the 15-min candle chart I put up earlier the test (I call the upper shadow of the candle the test) is probably a bit easier to see on the candlestick chart.

 

From an ongoing trade management perspective the stop could be brought closer if you think a move down would not surprise, and, if triggered and you were still bullish the position re-entered at a lower price with the stop re-instated at the initial level. This is just a trade management idea, nothing more. I am all for aggressive management of stops, it may not suit you. And, as I said, benefit of hindsight here.

 

I know you seem to trading from the 15-min chart but it could be worth bringing up a lower time-frame bar, this may provide a better glimpse into the movements, but I don't know your trading style/goals. I trade a much quicker bar in the ES than 15-minute, but I have a different style/goals to you. A point and figure chart may be of assistance, such a chart does not rely on breaking the price movements up into particular, arbitrary time periods, but instead draws chart movement according to where the buying overcomes selling and selling overcomes buying.

 

This is a bit of a rambling answer, hope it helps and other responses follow.

 

[winnie 10]

Thank you for your kind advice. It is very useful. The chart is come from Interactive Brokers which is free.

Thanks again

[winnie 10]

Dear mister ed,

If you buy near the low of my chart , how would you management your position by using wyckoff method in your time frame. I wonder wyckoff method could only be use in long term trading ? Could it be use in day trading ? any suggestion

 

Thank you for your time

Winnie

[mister ed 10]

Hi Winnie - I think your questions are ones only you can answer once you learn the Wyckoff approach. Have you checked out the new Wyckoff forum on TL - its still relatively new but being added to every day and will be of great assistance to you in learning Wyckoff.

[Eiger 10]

My 15 minutes chart:crap::crap:

 

 

That was a good VSA trade that just didn't pan out. I was following the same trade on the 10-min chart. At A, there was good stopping volume over three bars. Note how the lows refused to go lower - a shortening of the thrusts on increased volume ("bag holding"). A nice, low volume Test on higher lows was what you entered on. Nothing wrong with that. It was a good trade that just didn't pan out because of the shake out/test of lows that caught your stop.

 

Usually, even with good stopping volume like that, the market will not immediately go higher after trending down (though sometimes it does) without a larger test of the lows to make sure supply has been fully cleaned out. So, you can exit the trade at the first resistance, bring your stop to break even as soon as you can, trail stops under the lows, or put in a wider initial stop.

 

Eiger