[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II

[jjthetrader 10]

I wasn't asking for personal advice. I saw a nice real live situation present itself while I was flicking through my timeframes and said- Hey this would be a good lesson for others to try and figure out as well.

 

Since it was a real-time, live edge chart(s)- my basic question was if you were sitting there, you saw what I posted, what would you have done? I may have gotten a range of answers such as:

 

A. I'd wait for a higher volume downward move through the 1.97 area and confirm to go short

B. I am a scalper and I would have used the 1 hr chart to go long, watch the bars form and manually exit.

C. I would have done nothing since their was low volume and it was the Asian Market.

 

It was more of a curiosity as to what others see when looking at the very same information. Guess I was just curious. I made my trade, banked $ and was happy. Guess I thought others may have seen it totally different and taken their own path.

Sledge

 

Sledge, just ignore BF. He comes in once in a while to stir it up and tell us all we can't possibly make money with what we're making money with. I post some of my trades, Eiger posts his trades, Tawe posts his trades. All making money.

It must just be slow in the candlestick corner today so BF steps out of his comfort zone. I'd much rather hear BF gives us some constructive advice because from what I hear he's a good trader and uses volume with candles.

 

If you ask what to do about a trade there really only are 3 things to do, long, short or step aside. I didn't see my setup in your example Sledge so I would have sat on the sidelines.

 

Sledge, the pros that control cable do sleep:)

[trader273 10]

Well I actually posted this so that people could attempt to answer what they see. I wanted to spark some conversation about what people saw and how if they were faced with this chart- what would their move be?

 

How is this even an option? Shouldn't people using VSA come to the same conclusion? I do not see how one person could come up with a short, all the while someone else, using the exact same methodology, come up with a long, then another trader comes up with a stay out of the market. That makes no sense. I guess using this logic, VSA will always be correct. But the problem is that doesn't mean the trader using it will always be correct. If the same methodology can come up with exact opposite answers to the same question, it just shows that there is a major flaw in the methodology.

[DbPhoenix 42]

How is this even an option? Shouldn't people using VSA come to the same conclusion? I do not see how one person could come up with a short, all the while someone else, using the exact same methodology, come up with a long, then another trader comes up with a stay out of the market. That makes no sense. I guess using this logic, VSA will always be correct. But the problem is that doesn't mean the trader using it will always be correct. If the same methodology can come up with exact opposite answers to the same question, it just shows that there is a major flaw in the methodology.

 

While I agree that VSA writes a lot of checks that it can't cash, you're being somewhat unfair. What you're suggesting is analogous to all candle traders trading the same patterns in the same way with the same targets in the same timeframe with the same candle interval and coming up with exactly the same results. And that's nonsense.

 

While I may think that any given "VSA trade" may be silly and completely extraneous to the VSA concept, this is not to say that every person trading VSA must trade it exactly the same way. One can't say this about VSA anymore than one can say it about candle traders.

[jjthetrader 10]

While I agree that VSA writes a lot of checks that it can't cash, you're being somewhat unfair. What you're suggesting is analogous to all candle traders trading the same patterns in the same way with the same targets in the same timeframe with the same candle interval and coming up with exactly the same results. And that's nonsense.

 

While I may think that any given "VSA trade" may be silly and completely extraneous to the VSA concept, this is not to say that every person trading VSA must trade it exactly the same way. One can't say this about VSA anymore than one can say it about candle traders.

 

I agree with DB for the most part. I'd also add that actually trading VSA is a much different beast than just knowing the methodology. Figuring out your own style within the methodology will be different from everyone else. Sledge may go long on a 1hr bar and I may be short within that 1hr bar on a 3min chart just looking for a small move. We're both using VSA and we're both going in different directions. It's like a Zen Koan.

[brownsfan019 17]

Sledge, just ignore BF. He comes in once in a while to stir it up and tell us all we can't possibly make money with what we're making money with. I post some of my trades, Eiger posts his trades, Tawe posts his trades. All making money.

 

I must have missed the real-time calls. Please direct me to the appropriate spots on this thread where these calls are made in real-time. No need for after the fact stuff.

[Sledge 13]

I must have missed the real-time calls. Please direct me to the appropriate spots on this thread where these calls are made in real-time. No need for after the fact stuff.

 

The only way any VSA trader, candlestick trader, Pivot Trader, S/R trader or any other trader could possibly make a real-time trade to show any doubter that it works was if this was a live chart webinar thread. Not sure of James bandwidth, but I can't see that happening.

 

On your candlestick corner- do you have set webinars with live charts running just so people can't say your full of sh*t, or do you do what we do here and post our trades After the fact with proof they were right- or wrong?

Sledge

[Sledge 13]

I agree with DB for the most part. I'd also add that actually trading VSA is a much different beast than just knowing the methodology. Figuring out your own style within the methodology will be different from everyone else. Sledge may go long on a 1hr bar and I may be short within that 1hr bar on a 3min chart just looking for a small move. We're both using VSA and we're both going in different directions. It's like a Zen Koan.

 

Well put JJ. As we all know (VSA followers, Candle traders, whatever) there are different traders with different goals, account sizes and methods to making what they feel they want on the trade! All can be winners in their niche.

 

To the the doubters- I guess I can't help you out. If VSA is garbage in your opinion, then I'm not the guy to try and sway you. I make $ using it, I like it. Sorry posting a chart for discussion prompted a "VSA is SH*T" backlash.

 

Sledge

[james_gsx 16]

On your candlestick corner- do you have set webinars with live charts running just so people can't say your full of sh*t, or do you do what we do here and post our trades After the fact with proof they were right- or wrong?

Sledge

 

I have done my best to stay out of this argument Brownsfan is simply trying to agitate you guys and he brings up several good points. But if I must, here you go.

 

click

 

and..

 

click

 

 

Would you like some more? I can probably even pull up one or two where I was wrong if you'd like.

 

Different trading for different people. The CSA guys think VSA is too complicated so we don't use it. Nothing personal. No need to respond by bashing candlesticks.

[jjthetrader 10]

I must have missed the real-time calls. Please direct me to the appropriate spots on this thread where these calls are made in real-time. No need for after the fact stuff.

 

Search all my posts. All trades posted were made in real time. I don't have time to come here, tell you what's going to happen, and then make the trade myself. If you want to pay for me to have a live trading room then sure.

Anyway, if you're not able to trade or even understand VSA then please don't bash it just accept that you don't get it. You were all horney for Joel Pozen back in Feb. you even started a thread for VSA material. What did he do to you?

[CandleWhisperer 10]

Ok VSA'ers-- I have a riddle for all of you.

 

Posted below are (2) charts a GBP/USD 1 Hr and a GBP/USD 4 hr.

 

On the 1 hour chart you see a nice WALL of resistance around 1.9705. Indicative of a market rise is coming.

On the 4 Hour chart you see an upthrust after a nice start to the downward move. Which is indicative of further decline.

 

So if you were to take a trade looking at these charts. Would you go long? Or would you go short?

 

Looking forward to how everyone reads and analyzes this to come to a conclusion!

 

[ATTACH]5959[/ATTACH]

 

[ATTACH]5960[/ATTACH]

 

Wow thread moves fast, so I will begin at the beginning. GREAT POST. THIS WHAT WE NEED MORE OF AND WHAT THE DETRACTORS HAVE ASKED FOR.

 

I suggest doing more of these but on Fridays. That way people have 48 to answer. Unlike the candle crew, VSAers have lives outside of TL!!!!!

[CandleWhisperer 10]

How is this even an option? Shouldn't people using VSA come to the same conclusion? I do not see how one person could come up with a short, all the while someone else, using the exact same methodology, come up with a long, then another trader comes up with a stay out of the market. That makes no sense. I guess using this logic, VSA will always be correct. But the problem is that doesn't mean the trader using it will always be correct. If the same methodology can come up with exact opposite answers to the same question, it just shows that there is a major flaw in the methodology.

 

LOL. Yes every candle trader in the world go long on the same Hammer. Oh, wait. The name doesn't matter. Which is code for: WE ALL CAN'T AGREE ON WHAT IT IS. I gues that text book example is not so text book, huh?

 

PLEASE.

[james_gsx 16]

LOL. Yes every candle trader in the world go long on the same Hammer. Oh, wait. The name doesn't matter. Which is code for: WE ALL CAN'T AGREE ON WHAT IT IS. I gues that text book example is not so text book, huh?

 

PLEASE.

 

 

We all know trading examples RARELY come up in "text book" fashion.

 

The name of a candle doesn't matter at all. I would love to hear your argument against that. A candle is a very simple idea to understand - simply price action painted different then a typical bar. That's all it is. Now you tell me how the name really matters?

 

As many of your own VSA guys have stated in the past - it's not about each individual bar or candle. You look for exhaustion of the trend or confirmation and make your trades based on that. If you make a trade based off a single candle then you're going to lose because you aren't looking at the big picture. I would also be willing to be the same is true for VSA.

 

Thanks, and have a wonderful weekend.

Edited April 11, 2008 by stanlyd
content

[mister ed 10]

Can I get some feedback please?

 

First, to state the obvious. The two VSA threads are the two biggest threads on TL. These two threads attract a lot of people to the site, and these people come back again and again. Some become contributors, some contribute again and again. These two threads on TL are the number one source of VSA related information on the web, both in quantity and quality, even including the paid services from the commercial vendors of VSA-related education and software. If I were the owner of this site, I would be very happy about this, as I believe Soultrader is.

 

A part of this thread is questioning the validity of VSA ideas and concepts, it is a good thing. I believe, though, that the number and persistence of these types of questions is now significantly distracting from the practical, applied aspects of the thread. If you read a book on, say, Market Profile, part of the book is devoted to discussing the philosophy behind the concepts, Then it moves on, the philosophy is not questioned again and again throughout the book. I could come up with other examples. At a college or university there is a course on Economic Philosophy, and a valuable course it is. But you don't discuss Economic Philososphy in Finance classes, for instance.

 

So I propose splitting the thread, basically starting a new one, where a discussion can take place on the 'philosophy' of VSA, whether it is a crock or not ... whatever. This will leave this thread free for the practical applied side. Like I said, there is a role for the 'is it a crock' discussion, let it flourish I say, and it shall have its own forum for debate.

 

Feedback please - good idea or no?

Edited April 12, 2008 by mister ed

[Guest forsearch]

Good idea.

 

Of course, one should make the distinction as to whether VSA is distinct from MP or a subset of it.

 

-fs

[mister ed 10]

Good idea.

 

Of course, one should make the distinction as to whether VSA is distinct from MP or a subset of it.

 

-fs

 

Hi forsearch - welcome.

 

Sorry MP has nothing to do with VSA, just using it as an example of splitting the discussion of the practical from the philosophical - sorry for the confusion.

[james_gsx 16]

I agree Mister Ed. Then the mods can go through and clean up the nonsense of whether or not VSA works (and all the other off topic posts that go with it). It would be a big task for the mods, but it would be well worth it in the long run.

[Sledge 13]

Wow thread moves fast, so I will begin at the beginning. GREAT POST. THIS WHAT WE NEED MORE OF AND WHAT THE DETRACTORS HAVE ASKED FOR.

 

I suggest doing more of these but on Fridays. That way people have 48 to answer. Unlike the candle crew, VSAers have lives outside of TL!!!!!

 

Thanks CW, you seem to have firmly grasped the reasoning I made the initial post. I had no idea the controversy it would spark. I'll keep posting whatever charts I feel are VSA relevant, I'll continue to ask the questions or pose the challenges. It is how I learn, it is how many learn.

Sledge

[mister ed 10]

I agree Mister Ed. Then the mods can go through and clean up the nonsense of whether or not VSA works (and all the other off topic posts that go with it). It would be a big task for the mods, but it would be well worth it in the long run.

 

D'oh! I hadn't thought of that ... LOL

 

Thanks for the feedback.

[Sledge 13]

I have done my best to stay out of this argument Brownsfan is simply trying to agitate you guys and he brings up several good points. But if I must, here you go.

 

click

 

and..

 

click

 

 

Would you like some more? I can probably even pull up one or two where I was wrong if you'd like.

 

Different trading for different people. The CSA guys think VSA is too complicated so we don't use it. Nothing personal. No need to respond by bashing candlesticks.

 

Duly noted. Maybe we can amp up our calls in this way. I have no problem with trying to do this. Funny part is, I get in the trade, close out and fail to remember to post results!

Sledge

[Sledge 13]

Can I get some feedback please?

 

So I propose splitting the thread, basically starting a new one, where a discussion can take place on the 'philosophy' of VSA, whether it is a crock or not ... whatever. This will leave this thread free for the practical applied side. Like I said, there is a role for the 'is it a crock' discussion, let it flourish I say, and it shall have its own forum for debate.

 

Feedback please - good idea or no?

 

A Resounding YES!

[mister ed 10]

Thanks Sledge.

[BlowFish 10]

No need to split the thread anyone can start a VSA is cr*p thread and post to there hearts content. Sadly this thread does appear to need moderating as there appears to be an agenda to call by every now and then to simply knock VSA. More recently it has been to knock VSAers, I personally find that distasteful. I suggest ellite trader is a better venue for that sort of stuff. It will be a sad day when the forum needs a complain button but there are a few posts here I would use it on.

 

This thread is about VSA if that is of no interest why the hell post here? Of course if you have constructive criticism I'm sure that would be welcome but of course that would require some effort which is not evident in most of these missives.

[mister ed 10]

Thanks BlowFish. What you said about the thread needing moderating is right and is something I have heard a few times very recently. I have let the distractions go on too long, in the interests of being fair, but the persistence is tiresome and hence I think moving such posts to alternative venue where they can be debated ad nauseum will work.

[dandxg 10]

No need to split the thread anyone can start a VSA is cr*p thread and post to there hearts content. Sadly this thread does appear to need moderating as there appears to be an agenda to call by every now and then to simply knock VSA. More recently it has been to knock VSAers, I personally find that distasteful. I suggest ellite trader is a better venue for that sort of stuff. It will be a sad day when the forum needs a complain button but there are a few posts here I would use it on.

 

This thread is about VSA if that is of no interest why the hell post here? Of course if you have constructive criticism I'm sure that would be welcome but of course that would require some effort which is not evident in most of these missives.

 

 

I agree wholeheartedly. As I posted before can't we all get along and show each other some respect? We are all trading price and volume right? Some want that very specific and so VSA may or may not work. Some prefer candles and that's cool as I have used them before. Some like S/R and volume and that works too. I would like to see all outright negative nonsense omitted of this thread and every other thread, call it censorship I don't care. That goes for anyone posting nonsense, me included. That behavior is tolerated at elite trader all the time. That is why I spend less time there and more time here. I don't have a problem with hearing a different viewpoint, that's healthy when its done constructively.

 

So in response to the question should we split the thread my answer is no. If you think VSA is nonsense then stay on your own preferred thread.

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

So in response to the question should we split the thread my answer is no. If you think VSA is nonsense then stay on your own preferred thread.

 

I agree. The issue is not the "philosophy" of VSA, and that's not what draws the "off-topic" posts. What draws these posts is the application side. So splitting the thread won't accomplish the objective, as a thread devoted to philosophy might have maybe six posts in it (after 2500 posts, what more is there to say?).

 

I have no doubt that those who believe that they're posting real-time trades truly believe that that is what they are doing. However, it is not necessary for those who know that the trades are not in fact real-time to bring attention to the fact in the mistaken belief that everybody is too stupid to understand the difference.

 

Therefore, if someone who happens to disagree with what's being posted for one reason or another wants to contribute something, fine. But if someone is posting for no other reason than to create an uproar, a deletion or two and a PM from the moderator ought to be enough.