[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II

[Guest Tresor]

Hello,

 

I have read many posts on VSA and I must say it seems to be a very good method for entering / reversing a position. I have had a crazy idea in my mind for a week or so (very similar to VSA). I hope it is innovative in some way but would be possible to use only in Europe as European exchanges, unlike those in US, have open interest data available in ticks.

 

My idea would be to determine ups and downs with some indicators (I present one in the new thread) that would use bars calculated on contracts traded as a percentage of overall open interest. E.g 1 bar = 0.1% of overall open interest.

 

I have just started this thread: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/bars-based-on-contracts-volume-as-3656.html

 

I have this idea in my mind but do not know how I should develop it further. I will greatly appreciate any input.

 

Regards

[brownsfan019 17]

BF, you consider that a hammer? To me the upper shadow is longer than the body of the candle and thus it is not a hammer. More like a doji.

 

Obviously you have a handle on what you are doing, but most traders who take a signal like this end up saying candles don't work. That is because that is an unreliable signal. Out of curiosity, can you describe the price action prior to the doji? Of much import is what caused that WRB-a news release of some sort.

 

I honestly do not care what it's called - hammer, doji, spinning top (actually would probably be a spinning top more than a doji ) Point is, great trade there.

 

And it was easy - high volume bullish candle signal. I see all this stuff in this thread making trading so much more difficult than it needs to be IMO. There's one post asking if this was a trade and then another that says it was textbook... Well, if it was 'textbook' shouldn't it be obvious? I mean, there are some patterns that require discretion regardless of the trading method, but to call something 'textbook' would indicate to me it should be incredibly obvious.

 

Not sure what was so unreliable about a spinner that produced +8 for me... I don't know, for me, that's reliable enough. It moved approx. 13.5 pts from the close, so if that's not reliable enough, then yes, candles are not good for someone that must get more. It works for me as +8 is a nice trade.

 

My point was simple - to take something that took at least 3-4 pages of this thread to dissect that literally took about 1 minute analysis in the candlestick world. Result was the same - a long that worked well - but it did not require question after question to get there.

 

I guess I'm that voice that won't go away in this thread b/c I see so much effort being exerted here for the EXACT same thing that us candle traders are doing, yet it's as plain as day. In other words, I have yet to see ANY advantage that VSA provides that your standard candlestick analysis does not... Oh boy... here comes the hate mail now...

[rsi 10]

If anybody here want charts from previous VSA thread, i can upload them.

I had saved all charts from all contributors till page 144 of that thread

Just let me know

Naveen

 

That is great. Please do it at the earliest and post the link here.

Thanks in advance and regards

RSI

[mister ed 10]

I guess I'm that voice that won't go away in this thread b/c I see so much effort being exerted here for the EXACT same thing that us candle traders are doing, yet it's as plain as day. In other words, I have yet to see ANY advantage that VSA provides that your standard candlestick analysis does not... Oh boy... here comes the hate mail now...

 

brownsfan - can I get an email address for you so I can avoid filling the thread with hate mail ...actually I already have one, its on its way now...:rofl:

 

I guess the simple way around this is to say "each to his (or her) own". But, on with my ramble...

 

Don't forget bf - you have have been at this game for quite a while, probably a lot longer than many of the people who read this thread. I would hope that those new people are reading the threads in your Candlestick Corner section too - candles are useful to me and others. I guess what is being done on this thread is codifying a lot of knowledge that some people, like yourself, have already absorbed and are using.

 

For example, the example you use is a high-volume hammer/doji/whatever buy 'signal', and a few posts here have sought to explain what is significant about the high volume on this candle. What about a low-volume hammer/doji/whatever buy 'signal' though, in what circumstances would the high volume not be necessary? These are the sorts of questions new entrants to the market might ask ... I know it is the sort of question I asked. Well, the posts discussing the action in the bars that followed point out where a low volume hammer/doji/whatever occured and say that this is a different sort of bar than the high volume hammer/doji/whatever (because, partly, the volume was a lot lower), but is still a valid entry point, for such-and-such reasons.

 

I had occasion to be re-reading the original VSA thread today and in it (post 121) one of the posters says "One thing that I am very struck with is the overlap one finds in " things that are true" across various methods" ... he then goes on to compare VSA and candles and concludes "Two methods reaching like conclusions".

Edited March 26, 2008 by mister ed

[NAVEEVIa 10]

charts from previous VSA tread are here

http://www.4shared.com/account/dir/5826532/3e357bf1/sharing.html

[zeon 10]

It would seem that you have formed some opinions on the above. I for one would be interested in hearing about them.

 

 

Not sure what you mean by that, but I posted two charts to illustrate what I meant to say. I don't really have much "fixed opinions", I'm trying to improve my trading, so I'm open to suggestions... most of the things I'm posting are conclusions based on experience from lots of observations.

[zeon 10]

Here's what I see.

 

1: We get an ultra high volume bar that closes down but close in the upper portion of its range. This creates a Long Lower shadow. The close in the upper portion of the range on high volume tells us that demand entered. If there had been selling on this bar, the close should not be in the upper portion of the bar. So we have a down bar that closes in its upper portion on ultra high volume: Strength (demand enters). Now we also have a S/R zone via a Long Shadow. this is our entry zone.

 

2: Next bar is down with volume less than the previous two bars. This is no supply. Personally, I would not enter here as the entire bar is not within the range of the Long Shadow. However, we now have more evidence that the supply/demand dynamic has changed.

 

3: Now we get the key bar. This is a test. Note that the volume is very low. Especially when compared to the first bar (1). Also note that we in the range of that long shadow where we first saw all the volume. This time there is none. The BBs have tested, or checked, for more sellers and have not found any. If there is no supply, the market is free to rise.

 

Long at F is very nice. You may not be the first in the door, but the money is made in the middle. Not for nothing but there is also not heat at F. An entry at B (1) could be cause a loss on the next candle.

 

 

What strikes me in a lot of these posts, is that pin-pointing the entry always seems fairly easy, but determining the target is hardly ever discussed. Perhaps you could tell us also a bit about where or when you would exit your long trade? Or what signals you'd be looking for to exit that trade? Thanks in advance.

[Eiger 10]

I guess I'm that voice that won't go away ... have yet to see ANY advantage that VSA provides that your standard candlestick analysis does not... Oh boy... here comes the hate mail now...

 

Your last two posts are designed to generate controversey and take us off topic. Please don't anymore.

 

Eiger

[BlowFish 10]

Hello Everyone,

 

I am new to this Forum. The VSA looks prety amazing. I was wondering if there is a signal or indicator for this available for either TradeStation or MultiCharts.

 

Regards

 

I think BlueRay converted some metastock code that was originally done by PivotProfiler. You'll probably find it in the indicators section.

 

Cheers.

[Sledge 13]

Looks as if overall we are at the end of "Stage 1" and all parties are jockying for their positions. Some are buying on the low hoping for a rally, some are gathering on the high for the downward drop. It may take a few more days for all of this to pan out with more sideways movement before we get to proceed with "Stage 2"

 

 

Update on this post I made talking about the slight pullback from Stage 1 and going into stage 2. This AM it appears that the Stage 2 may be gathering steam. The BOE didn't have good news for the cable and it lost about 200 pips. Look at the beautiful upthrust and downward movement on the 1 hr chart. Even with that drop an hour ago, you see a very poor ability to rise out of it. I'm Short 1.9952 Target TBD.

We shall see.

 

[jjthetrader 10]

What strikes me in a lot of these posts, is that pin-pointing the entry always seems fairly easy, but determining the target is hardly ever discussed. Perhaps you could tell us also a bit about where or when you would exit your long trade? Or what signals you'd be looking for to exit that trade? Thanks in advance.

 

Zeon, this is a personal thing. VSA doesn't actually teach you how to TRADE. If you're long on a sign of strength then you could exit on the first sign of weakness. You could also have a preset profit target of a couple points.

Or maybe you would just trail your stop and let the market exit for you.

Honestly this is something you'll have to figure out on your own.

What's your tolerance? Can you hold for 5 minutes, 30min, and hour?

Determine what your personality can take and then build from there.

 

I agree with Eiger about BrownsFan posting stuff like that. It's not an argument over who's way is better or who came up with it. Controversy and candles only derail the thread.

[BlowFish 10]

I honestly do not care what it's called - hammer, doji, spinning top (actually would probably be a spinning top more than a doji ) Point is, great trade there.

 

Exactly. Understanding price action is the key. Is it not every bit as clear when portrayed as a bar? High/Ultra high volume that closed way up off the bottom. The close is what is key, Williams compares it with the previous close and the high/low of the bar, candle guys with the open no big difference intraday.

 

And it was easy - high volume bullish candle signal. I see all this stuff in this thread making trading so much more difficult than it needs to be IMO. There's one post asking if this was a trade and then another that says it was textbook... Well, if it was 'textbook' shouldn't it be obvious? I mean, there are some patterns that require discretion regardless of the trading method, but to call something 'textbook' would indicate to me it should be incredibly obvious.

 

Agree about overly complicating things. Candles have the illusion of simplicity imho. People, especially those new to the business, spend way too much time and energy on 'learning candles' when learning the underlying price action and what it represents is key. As I have said before there are often half a dozen candle formations that portray the same thing. Hows that easy? Also if you read Nihabashi Mark (who seems to know what he's talking about) he goes into great depth about how all hammers (or whatever) are not created equal and how many subtle variatons exist.

 

It's round about then that they either decide 'candles don't work' or think 'uh oh candles are training wheel but I want to learn to ride' and start the real voyage of discovery and try and understand the actual ebb and flow off the market. Later they also discover that the context is just as important as the pattern. One good thing that comes from candle study is that it often gets people into understanding the market rather than looking for better indicators.

 

Not sure what was so unreliable about a spinner that produced +8 for me... I don't know, for me, that's reliable enough. It moved approx. 13.5 pts from the close, so if that's not reliable enough, then yes, candles are not good for someone that must get more. It works for me as +8 is a nice trade.

 

Nice trade! However I would say that whether it went +2 +4 or +16 was not a function of the spinner or the entry signal at all for that matter. Did you use a candle pattern to get out? I remember last time I was in the room you where shooting for simple +2's glad to see you have found a way to hold for longer anyway. I guess you where risking about +4 assuming your stop was under the hammer/spining top/Doji thing. Also where you happy to take 3 points of 'heat' before it went your way? FWIW I thought eiger's exit was decent for a quick trade, targeting the previous swing high and indeed there was a reaction there which could have easily gone into sideways action.

 

My point was simple - to take something that took at least 3-4 pages of this thread to dissect that literally took about 1 minute analysis in the candlestick world. Result was the same - a long that worked well - but it did not require question after question to get there.

 

Well actually it does do you trade all spinning top/doji/daddy long leggs/Alabama slammers/whatever? (If they have 'high' volume of course). Are you suggesting that as a complete and viable method of determining entries? I'd like to hear the 1 minute analysis you go through (in the candle thread of course). I think you are overselling here, if only it where that easy. I would bet you are evaluating loads of information about what's happening without even being aware you are doing it.

 

I guess I'm that voice that won't go away in this thread b/c I see so much effort being exerted here for the EXACT same thing that us candle traders are doing, yet it's as plain as day. In other words, I have yet to see ANY advantage that VSA provides that your standard candlestick analysis does not... Oh boy... here comes the hate mail now...

 

That's fine, each to their own. I'm still not sure why you label yourself a candle trader to be honest seems you are more a PA guy. I don't want to be provocative but it also appears you change slant fairly regularly. (though I know the basis remains the same). Guess that makes you versatile. Coming onto this thread to knock VSA is kinda out of order imho (even though you always do it in a courteous way). A better approach would be 'selling' your approach on the candle thread. To be honest I have not engaged much there as it seems completely discretionary which ones to take and which to pass. Much the same as VSA really

 

 

Cheers,

Nick.

 

P.S. Hope you take this in the spirit it was meant, always quite enjoyed locking horns with you in a friendly sorta way hehe

[zeon 10]

Zeon, this is a personal thing. VSA doesn't actually teach you how to TRADE. If you're long on a sign of strength then you could exit on the first sign of weakness. You could also have a preset profit target of a couple points.

Or maybe you would just trail your stop and let the market exit for you.

Honestly this is something you'll have to figure out on your own.

What's your tolerance? Can you hold for 5 minutes, 30min, and hour?

Determine what your personality can take and then build from there.

 

Thanks, but what I meant to say was that VSA seems to focus a lot on entries and not on exits. Although in my experience they are as important as entries, if not more important. You can have a perfect entry but if you don't know how to manage the trade it can still turn out into a loss. Exiting on 'the first sign of weakness' usually means you're exiting too early.

 

I was curious about how other traders manage their position. This is just a suggestion, but perhaps those who post these excellent analyses regularly, also add some information about what happened AFTER the entry, and how what kind of signals they would consider valid to take profits.

 

Having predetermined profit targets is something I stopped believing in. The market is too dynamic for something like that to work imho.

[Eiger 10]

Having predetermined profit targets is something I stopped believing in. The market is too dynamic for something like that to work imho.

 

JJ's post about this is spot on - you have to be comfortable with the objective. Conditions are also important. On sloppy days, I limit my objectives; when the market is trending, just breaking out of congestion, or having sharp moves, my objectives widen.

 

Here is a page out of Wyckoff's Tape Reading Course, originally published in 1932. Ignore my highlights and notes. It is pretty self explanatory. This is a first step in thinking about trade objectives. The next would be to correlate market conditions with size and frequency of moves.

 

Eiger

[jjthetrader 10]

JJ's post about this is spot on - you have to be comfortable with the objective. Conditions are also important. On sloppy days, I limit my objectives; when the market is trending, just breaking out of congestion, or having sharp moves, my objectives widen.

 

Here is a page out of Wyckoff's Tape Reading Course, originally published in 1932. Ignore my highlights and notes. It is pretty self explanatory. This is a first step in thinking about trade objectives. The next would be to correlate market conditions with size and frequency of moves.

 

Eiger

 

Exactly as Eiger suggests, there's no hard fast rules. For example the trade I posted from yesterday, going short on an upthrust without weakness in the background, I didn't use anything other than a small predetermined target.

 

Being long after that selling climax yesterday you could have held longer. For me the more strength/weakness, the bigger my objective. Of course the market is dynamic and I'll change my tune at any time.

 

VSA doesn't actually focus on entries OR exits. It is simply the reading of supply and demand with the price and volume bars and figuring out your own entry and or exit.

 

I've never heard Tom Williams give entry or exit advice. He's always eluding to it by saying you'd want to be long here or short here but never gives you trading advice.

 

But if you'd like Zeon, we can post our exits with our trades but I assure you mine will be boring. More often than not they're preset and equal to my stop. This is a whole other topic actually. But it is intertwined with VSA because the psychology of trading this way is part of your maney management.

[brownsfan019 17]

Cheers,

Nick.

 

P.S. Hope you take this in the spirit it was meant, always quite enjoyed locking horns with you in a friendly sorta way hehe

 

BF - great questions. I do not want to take over the VSA thread when talking about candlesticks/PA trading. I'd be more than happy to move the discussion to the candlestick area here on TL.

[Eiger 10]

Today, the market opened lower, and yesterday put in a lower high. No big demand came in off the 8:30 AM Durable Goods report, the open, or the New Home Sales report. Given this background, I am looking for a short opportunity. In the first forty-five minutes, market conditions are not very volilitle, so my objectives are modest (which they usually are). This could be another sloppy day, or it might turn out more active - whatever it is, i will try to trade accordingly.

 

Here is a trade off the 3-min chart that tries to meet these conditions (note: there are indications off the 5 & 15-min charts as well):

 

Bar 1 - supply enters the market on a sudden increase in volume, wider spread and midrange close on an up bar. It looked attractive, but as JJ says, it's just a bar with supply on it (pretty, though )

Bar 2 - an upThrust on increased volume that fails to penetrate the opening gap by much and closes near its open. The market is weak here, but not really moving.

Bar 3 - The market slides lower and then gives a No Demand bar and my entry point

Trade exited just above support.

 

With not much volitility, the objective of this trade was to play for a test of support. It eventually goes several points lower. I don't care. Why fight support in a slow market? If I was wrong, I would book no profit. This was just a quick trade that set up well and I tried to respond to market conditions.

 

Eiger

[jjthetrader 10]

I'm with Eiger on his analysis. Although the upbar with ultra high volume that I've marked at 10:03 was a deal breaker for me for any long position. For me that was now my background, weakness.

Then the upthrust we get just about touched the Value Area Low from yesterday and was forced back down below the 20ema. This is indeed weakness. If you didn't get short after that then you had another opportunity, and this is Sebastians setup, to get short on that no demand I've marked.

Zeon, this is why we fell through support so easily, weakness in the background.

 

Then we have a nice little drop and once again we get massive volume on a pretty narrow spread closing off the low. I jumped in long on the next bar. Since I didn't wait for any confirmation I had a preset target of 2 points.

But this also gives us our new background.....for now:)

 

Good trading today guys (and gals).

[jjthetrader 10]

Sorry, forgot to attach chart to my last post. Here it is.

[zeon 10]

Eiger and jjtrader, could you guys perhaps have a look at the chart I posted in the Real Time Price Action thread.

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/real-time-price-action-clue-to-3494.html

 

It seems like you both have support around the same level where I had it. So perhaps I'm not completely wrong after all, but I'm still having issues (cleary)...

[jjthetrader 10]

Eiger and jjtrader, could you guys perhaps have a look at the chart I posted in the Real Time Price Action thread.

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/real-time-price-action-clue-to-3494.html

 

It seems like you both have support around the same level where I had it. So perhaps I'm not completely wrong after all, but I'm still having issues (cleary)...

 

Zeon, had a look at your chart. Not exacly sure what you're looking for. But if you're wondering why price fell through the line you have drawn at C then here's what I see. Prior to your A that line is broken. Going up it doesn't act as resistance either so when it comes back down again there's not a whole lot stopping it.

Is that what you were in question about?

[zeon 10]

Zeon, had a look at your chart. Not exacly sure what you're looking for. But if you're wondering why price fell through the line you have drawn at C then here's what I see. Prior to your A that line is broken. Going up it doesn't act as resistance either so when it comes back down again there's not a whole lot stopping it.

Is that what you were in question about?

 

 

Not exactly... the lower line is the important support for me. But I figured 'C' to be a retest because sometimes re-tests do occur at a somewhat higher level than before. Like the chart Eiger posted yesterday or the day before I think...

 

So, if you're looking in real-time and you're observing the candle at C, volume is less than at the selling climax AND price manages to close higher.

 

My question is, in this given situation, why not go long here?

[Eiger 10]

Not exactly... the lower line is the important support for me . . .

 

My question is, in this given situation, why not go long here?

 

Because you are in a downtrend from yesterday afternoon, and the market was weak with supply, an upthrust, and no demand on the 3-min chart.

 

You will think I sound like a broken record, but you must look at higher time frame charts. Again, what you thought you saw on the 3-min chart does not give the full picture of the structure of the market.

 

The attached chart is a 30-min chart which includes overnight data. The red arrow is where you wanted to go long. It is pretty clear we were in a downtrend all night long after putting in a lower high yesterday afternoon. The only relevant support around the open was yesterday's low. The lines drawn on your chart were illusory because of the limitations of the time frame.

 

When I look at support and resistance, I look for the obvious. I don't use Fibonacci numbers, pivots, MP value areas, etc. Some people seem to use these well, but I personally just keep it simple and think about nearby daily highs and lows and the hourly highs and lows, if relevant. If the day before had an especially active area (volume), I will note this too, as it may be tested today or tomorrow (and this is probably like MP). That's about all I do for S&R.

 

I also think about S&R as magnets. Traders will go and test these areas all the time. If I am short and there is an obvious support area nearby (like this AM), I look for a test of that support. The more obvious it is, the more confident I am about the target. If everyone can see it, they will usually go for it. Of course, I will buy support and sell resistance when it is appropriate to do so with confirmation whenever possible.

 

Hope this is helpful

 

Eiger

[Sledge 13]

Man! After reading Eiger and JJ post back and forth- I realize just how much I'm still only in middle school in my trading education- listening to the College Professors teach the class!

 

Keep it up guys. I'm picking things up in droves!!

Sledge

[Sledge 13]

So, if you're looking in real-time and you're observing the candle at C, volume is less than at the selling climax AND price manages to close higher.

 

My question is, in this given situation, why not go long here?

 

But remember this- if you are studying VSA, look at the Volume on those bars approaching the line! As Tom Williams Says, it took a running start and plowed through the resistance!

 

Volume was increasing towards the line, if it were declining, you would have a valid point that the line would "hold" and bounce off it, then head north again.

Sledge