[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II

[VolumeJedi 10]

Right edge summary:

 

A: Market moving up and then we see a wide spread up bar on ultra high volume that closes off its high with the next bar down. Supply enters on this bar. Why else would the next bar be down?

 

B: Price falls a bit and then retraces up. Blue angluar acts as support. We see an up bar closing near its low on increased volume. This is an up thrust. Price fails to close above the angluar and volume increases as we close near the low: there must be supply (weakness) on this bar.

 

Now we have seen weakness enter in the form of an ultra high volume bar and in the form of an up thrust.

 

C: The best place to go short. Narrow range (NR7) bar closing up on volume less than the previous two bars. This is no demand. Note that price is finding resistance at the blue line. Note also that our no demand is within the range of the high volume bar. In other words the market has moved back into a place where there was high volume but this time the volume has dried up. The BBs are not interested in higher prices: get short young man.

 

First price target: the green and the purple lines below.

 

Price does indeed move down to the first target. In fact, it trades down to and thru the green line to the purple line, but closes just above the green line. Sheded some contracts here.

 

The very next bar completes a two bar reversal pattern and is kind of scary. The high of the second bar takes us above the most recent no demand. Therefore, exited the rest of position.

[tawe trader 10]

Pip-tastic VJ,

 

Great live trade and follow up comments.

 

Thanks

Tawe

[jjthetrader 10]

VolumeJedi, you make it look easy brother! Nice.

[Eiger 10]

Volume came in at the end of the day yesterday on an up bar at A:

 

Note the volume - ultra high

Note the spread - fairly narrow (compare to the last 5-6 bars)

Note the close - an up bar, but closes in the middle back under the tops

 

Next bars makes no further progress, but start to sag.

 

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Sebastian Manby always looks at the end of the day volume - spread - close characteristics and discovered that what occurs at end of day frequently tells the first hour of trading for the next day.

 

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The end of the day characteristics yesterday were bearish. At A, supply hit the market with some force. Look at all that volume. It is the largest 5-minute volume bar on the day. With VSA we ask, what did price do on all that volume? It gave a fairly narrow spread (i.e., lots of activity via the volume, but price was capped via the spread). The bar is an up bar, but the close is in the middle and below the previous highs. Had that been buying, price would have rocketed higher.

 

As Sebastian would expect, the market came off the next morning and traded down.

 

Eiger

[VolumeJedi 10]

...............

 

-----

 

Sebastian Manby always looks at the end of the day volume - spread - close characteristics and discovered that what occurs at end of day frequently tells the first hour of trading for the next day.

 

-----

 

The end of the day characteristics yesterday were bearish. At A, supply hit the market with some force. Look at all that volume. It is the largest 5-minute volume bar on the day. With VSA we ask, what did price do on all that volume? It gave a fairly narrow spread (i.e., lots of activity via the volume, but price was capped via the spread). The bar is an up bar, but the close is in the middle and below the previous highs. Had that been buying, price would have rocketed higher.

 

As Sebastian would expect, the market came off the next morning and traded down.

 

Eiger

 

 

What day in the 3 day cycle would you say this is? Would be interesting if it was the Buy day.

 

As for the bar at A: clear sign of a transfer of ownership. The BBs were selling to the weak hands at that point.

[HAKUNA 10]

From what I understand of taylor and that Frank's article, yesterday was a buy day leading to buying excess, following this any gap down which does not get filled within 15-30min, needs selling into , that would be first trade and then we look for high violation - which has happened to again short (ie. sell day setups)

IMO,

[Eiger 10]

What day in the 3 day cycle would you say this is? Would be interesting if it was the Buy day ...

 

 

In my reading of Taylor (which I would rate as novice at this point, so take it with a very big grain of salt), today was a Sell Day in the 3-Day Cycle. Yesterday was a Buy Day.

 

The action today was not a great Sell Day. On a solid SD, we want to see the open at or above yesterday's high. Taylor looked to sell out long positions on a penetration of the BD high early in the day. These would be long positions bought on a LOW MADE FIRST on a BD (yesterday). Today openned off yesterday's highs, which Sebastion's EOD indication suggested it would.

 

Today's lows held and there was a slow, low volume rally to the 919.25 level, which was the high (resistance) of December 8th (see 60 min chart). The market reacted, but didn't sell off dramatically.

 

Tomorrow is a Short Sale Day by my novice estimates. Taylor looked to sell short on a penetration of the SD (today's) high and when the HIGH IS MADE FIRST. Note the high volume on a down bar near the close. VSA & Sebastian's indicator suggests that buying may have occured (less clear than yesterday because of close) so that may happen (see 5-min chart). We shall see.

 

Eiger

[pmxgs0 10]

Hi everyone,

 

I'm new to VSA and I hope this thread will help me on that.

I came across tradeguider software and they mentioned that Sebastian Manby is a very good VCA analyst.

I've seen his name in a few posts, but I don't know his nickname.

Can someone tell me that?

If you know of other users who are experts at using this approach, their nicknames on this forum are also welcome, to see if I can start reading their posts.

 

thanks

[Soultrader 12]

Hi everyone,

 

I'm new to VSA and I hope this thread will help me on that.

I came across tradeguider software and they mentioned that Sebastian Manby is a very good VCA analyst.

I've seen his name in a few posts, but I don't know his nickname.

Can someone tell me that?

If you know of other users who are experts at using this approach, their nicknames on this forum are also welcome, to see if I can start reading their posts.

 

thanks

 

Hi pmxgs,

 

His nick is Seb Mandy. You can also visit the Videos section as he has posted some vidoes there as well. Also, go through this entire thread... many great contributors on this thread so you are likely to find gems everywhere. Good luck.

[jjthetrader 10]

How about a YM trade this morning? I can honestly say I like it much better than the ES and find it much easier to read.

 

This is a 5min chart. Check out the Ultra Wide Spread bar with Ultra High Volume, closing in the middle. Could it be any more obvious what our background is at this point?

Next bar is a potential no demand. The bar that follows it confirms it and completes the pattern. A short can be taken now. I waited for a bit of a retracement of the completion bar.

I exited at the Value Area Low, our first level of possible support.

[jjthetrader 10]

Don't you love when you get another go at the same trade? The background is still weak and we're trying to go up on reducing volume. Finally we get our no demand completion pattern and we head south again right to the Value area Low. But this time, not shown in the picture, we break it. We found a bit of support there on the first trade but this time around there weren't as many S/R traders with their orders parked there. Notice that the background never changed. The bounce off the VAL was only temporary with weakness like that in the background.

[VolumeJedi 10]

Don't you love when you get another go at the same trade? The background is still weak and we're trying to go up on reducing volume. Finally we get our no demand completion pattern and we head south again right to the Value area Low. But this time, not shown in the picture, we break it. We found a bit of support there on the first trade but this time around there weren't as many S/R traders with their orders parked there. Notice that the background never changed. The bounce off the VAL was only temporary with weakness like that in the background.

 

I like that second no demand bar JJ. It's an NR4 bar that does not make a higher high and just look at that volume .

[jjthetrader 10]

I like that second no demand bar JJ. It's an NR4 bar that does not make a higher high and just look at that volume .

 

Yes I agree. The inside bar, no demands are preferable.

[VolumeJedi 10]

Yes I agree. The inside bar, no demands are preferable.

 

You are correct. But what make the absolute best no demands are Dunnigan bars that are also NR7s.

 

A Dunnigan bar makes a higher high and not a lower low. This really gets the herd excited. They see a market making higher highs and closing up. Too bad they can't read volume and spread. The volume signals no professional activity and the range reinforces this lack of BB participation.......

 

By the way, an ideal test would be a Dunnigan bar to the downside. Where the market makes a lower low and not a higher high, closing down from the previous bar and closing in the middle or high. Here again, the making of a new low confuses the uninformed because lower lows is a necessary condition (correctly) for a down trend.

Edited December 18, 2008 by VolumeJedi

[CuriousGeorge 10]

I'm very interested in the things you guys are talking about here. I've attached a chart below to get some feedback by some of you veteran VSA traders. How do you interpret this action?

 

Thanks for any feedback

 

[JeremyGoh 10]

I'm very interested in the things you guys are talking about here. I've attached a chart below to get some feedback by some of you veteran VSA traders. How do you interpret this action?

 

Thanks for any feedback

 

[ATTACH]8891[/ATTACH]

 

Not sure if I'm correct.

 

Looks like climatic action/stopping volume with the next bar up.

Start looking for no supply signal before entry.

 

Jeremy

[VolumeJedi 10]

I'm very interested in the things you guys are talking about here. I've attached a chart below to get some feedback by some of you veteran VSA traders. How do you interpret this action?

 

Thanks for any feedback

 

[ATTACH]8891[/ATTACH]

 

Just a few thoughts.

 

The candle you point to is climatic action/ stopping volume. Demand definitely entered on this bar. It has ultra high volume with the next bar up. If the down close actually represented selling, then the next bar should not be up.

 

The background is still full of weakness and a long trade is not yet advised. What you would want to see is a test first. A test would be a narrow range bar closing down, closing in the middle or high on volume less than the previous two bars. The best place to see this test is within the range of the high volume climatic action bar.

 

One thing to watch out for would be a no demand in the area of the pink lines on the chart. This would mean the weakness in the market is still prevalent.

[CuriousGeorge 10]

I thank you both for your helpful replies. Let me ask one mor thing, if you were already short at the time you saw this action, would you exit immediately or wait for some other confirmation?

[jjthetrader 10]

I thank you both for your helpful replies. Let me ask one mor thing, if you were already short at the time you saw this action, would you exit immediately or wait for some other confirmation?

 

It's hard to tell without seeing more of the chart. We'd need to be able to see past support and resistance. This could just be a dead cat bounce. It would also be good to know where your short position started. I'd at least be moving my stop up to protect profit.

What stock is this?

[CuriousGeorge 10]

I put on my short at the close of the circled candle. There were no S/R levels for many months back.

 

[jjthetrader 10]

I put on my short at the close of the circled candle. There were no S/R levels for many months back.

 

[ATTACH]8895[/ATTACH]

 

If I were trading this stock then I would want a whole lot more information on my screen. Your 20 bars don't cut it. If you tell me what it is then I will look at it for you, if not then I cannot help.

[Guest valftyli]

I don't know what to do.

May you will

[HAKUNA 10]

Eiger,

Since you are quite good at explaining VSA and now seem to have got some clarity on taylor, perhaps you can shed light on today.

The shorts worked fine for me today as ES faced resistance over 900 right at yesterday morning's congestion.

 

Today, however was the first day of the cycle or a buy day as yesterday panned out quite well as a SS day or the 3rd day of the cycle as per the table of richbois, at the risk of pestering him and also operates a subscription service, thought might ask you.

 

So in what way today would be considered as a buy day.

[VolumeJedi 10]

Nice way to end the day/week........

 

A: Down bar closing near its highs with above average volume. But take a closer look: the range is less than the previous bar and the volume is increasing. This is a squat. Demand enters the market at his point. We like the location of this bar as it is just above the yellow line.

 

B: After the squat we get a bit of a rise in price but then price drifts downwards again. We see a down bar at the yellow line that has volume less than the previous two bars. This is no supply. The next bar completes the pattern.

 

We can't yet jump aboard the train. There is still a lot of weakness (supply) in the background. But something appears to be changing.

 

C: The market responds to the no supply and the squat by moving up. Then we see a wide spread down bar on very high volume that closes off its low with the next bar up. The wide spread, the very high volume (relative to the previous bars), the down close with the next bar up, are all "tells". The BBs are buying on this bar. VSA teaches us that the volume shows their activity and the down close with the next bar up shows their intent.

 

D: Wider spread bar than the previous 3 bars on a down bar that closes in the middle of its range on increasing volume. This bar is pure strength.

 

E: Narrow range down bar closing in the middle of its range on volume less than the previous two bars. This is a test. There are 9 different types of tests and this is one of the better ones. We note that this bar is a NR7 and an inside bar. We also note that the bar is within the range of the wide spread down bar. Hence, if there was selling in the high volume on the large down bar, now we are finding no volume when price trades in the same area on the chart.

 

Time to get long. Place a stop just under the green line. first objective: blue line (what will become the top quartile of the channel see #G.)

 

F: We are in tune with the market as price does begin to move up. Bar F is not a nice bar. 3 bars earlier we have a wider spread bar closing up and closing in the middle on increasing volume. Supply clearly enters here. Note this bar is the opposite of the bar at D. These principles go both ways. . With that bar in the immediate background, F shows itself. It is a narrow range up bar on volume less than the previous two bars. It is no demand.

 

G: Wide spread down bar closing in the upper portion of its range with very high volume. Looks like a shake out. If this bar was bearish the close should be lower, especially on that volume. When this bar completes, we now see 2 lows and an intermediate high so we can draw a channel.

 

If the next bar closes below the low of the shake out, no biggie we are wrong on the channel.

 

As it turns out, the next bar is down but the range narrows and the volume drops off. Looks like a high volume test. Price begins to head north and we feel good about our channel.

 

We want to get out before the close and it looks like other have the same idea. Wide spread up bar prior to the two last bars is the bar to exit. Target hit. We are now in the upper portion of the channel and the day is near end.

[jjthetrader 10]

Hi all, I've put Friday's action on the YM into a pdf if anyone is interested. The chart is already embedded but I've attached it here to for reference.

Nice analysis VolumeJedi.

Cheers

19-12-08 YM.pdf